Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Alex on Twitter

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Toyota owners got the same hate in Michigan, it won’t matter in a few years. It takes real courage to stand for what you believe in.

 

[Chickenlittle]

You just described 90% of pick up truck buyers though.

Reminds me of my brother. Bought a f250 pick up. Largest thing he ever hauled was a suit case. Parking it a bitch maintenance a nightmare but he kept it for 4 years. Last year he bought a AWD model3 (lives in fla, never travels) kept it for 6 months put on less than 1500 miles and sold it. No issues what so ever with it. He bought a new 150,000 rv and in 5 months has yet to have taken a trip with it. The really weird thing is he is retired on limited income and using his life savings (less than 200K) for these moves. People are impulsive and unpredictable. I expect him to get the new tesla pickup once he sells his rv

 

[SOULPEDL]

Will we see $400 before end of the year?

I was just wondering this, and I say yes with 51% confidence. Tesla's Q4s historically do wonderful things to my portfolio. We're not even half way and shipments are looking stellar. It's not any one story, it's a barrage of good news - it's the beginning of that Bonnie and Clyde shoot-up. The anticipation of exceeding 360K units in 2019 will be too much, and I bet FUDsters were counting on Tesla failing that stated goal, I don't think they really expected Made in China within Q4.

IMO, the 400 push will come early because people are believing Elon more and more, and pissed off their broker didn't advise to buy TSLA. (I say this, but also checked the charts one last time before publishing during a sell-off.) Meanwhile, we can all see much further into the future than the street and The Street, so we all know this upward pressure will increase not decrease. As people begin to challenge their own beliefs, they'll read further and discover our stories in the mix. SNOWBALL in the works.

I see it in my own neighborhood. Trump followers near me amused by my enthusiasm, but now they're curious about our new Tesla Energy. (Keep in mind one of them owns a Porsche so the Taycan thing is probably eating at him slowly). They don't think they can afford $30-40K, but then I layout the math and how I'm pocketing cash back from a battery rebate... they go silent. Wait until they see my power bills next month.

At some point, these people will feel left out like they missed an another Apple moment and pile in as well. (Oh wait, I meant Amazon moment). These are followers, and they will eventually follow, but now I'm talking 2020+ and a much higher SP than 400.

 

[AudubonB]

LOL, already fixed my comment, but not fast enough.

It really tells you something if muscle memory still says "$240" while we are at $340 already.

Aha. This is the Dingledongers’ excuse as well:

NO, Mr. Broker! I told you to short it at $420!

 

[wipster]

Is it safe to say... it's Green!

Thanks Scottie... drinking with shorts again eh? Just don't pass out in the doorway... LOL!!

 

[LN1_Casey]

I've often thought about this, but then I recall the anecdotal story of the "million dollar station wagon" or something to that effect. A story that has been told here at least once before, whereby someone sold stock (the original story was back in the late 90's) after a good run to buy a car that met the needs of their family. The stock continued its run (not an advice) and that car ended up "costing" the storyteller the better part of a million dollars.

I *could* easily pay off my car loan at any time, but why would I when my invested dollars are making many times more than what the interest cots me? IMHO, sell something else to buy a Tesla, but don't sell TSLA now unless you want to add another chapter to the million dollar wagon story.

I am one who is buying TSLA to use to buy a Tesla.

I can understand the concept of the "costing" if the stock continues to rise, but in reality, that's completely false. The person put in $X into the stock, and got back $Y. As long as that's not less than they put in, then they gained whatever $Z was. The stock could easily drop off a cliff after they sell, like TSLA did after Q1 2019, and if they had sold their shares at the previous $380, does it make their car worth more or less when the stock was $180?

Hindsight is always present in the game of stocks, but it makes no difference to the choices you make with your stocks at the current. If you want/need to make a purchase, and you use your stocks, it doesn't matter what the future of the stocks will be. You should only care about purchase price, and sell price.

 

[Sancho]

If the SP breaks out of 340ish, it’s Infinity And Beyond.

Epic final battle of the War of 2019.

 

[wipster]

I personally believe cyber truck will be a m3 moment. When the market realizes that tsla just penetrated the conservative market. And all oil field workers are now drooling for a tesla.

Ths probably kills the FUD as those are the ppl you see keeying tesla and holds a personal grudge.

Kimbal will be a great spokesperson for the truck as a cowboy.

I can't wait to see what happens to the first idiot that gets captured keying a cybertruck.... I betcha dem boys is mean!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Do you belong to APPLQ?
People have been saying the same thing for years now. My portfolio says otherwise.

I congratulate you. Two biggest mistakes I made were
1. Buying amzn on release of kindle for $60 dollars and selling just over 100
2. Buying Apple at 80 and selling at 120
Both these were in 2008-2009 when I thought the world was ending and I was new to the market. Having said that, there are only so many colors and sizes you can do. Guess you can probably add 6 more cameras to the phone. They are late to the game on 5g. They appear to only be attempting to “hold their own”, afraid to take risk. I’m not reluctant to go back in, i rebought amzn at 1000 and sold most of it at 2050 less than a year ago. But Apple I am reluctant to at this pt

 

[elasalle]

I was just wondering this, and I say yes with 51% confidence. Tesla's Q4s historically do wonderful things to my portfolio. We're not even half way and shipments are looking stellar. It's not any one story, it's a barrage of good news - it's the beginning of that Bonnie and Clyde shoot-up. The anticipation of exceeding 360K units in 2019 will be too much, and I bet FUDsters were counting on Tesla failing that stated goal, I don't think they really expected Made in China within Q4.

IMO, the 400 push will come early because people are believing Elon more and more, and pissed off their broker didn't advise to buy TSLA. (I say this, but also checked the charts one last time before publishing during a sell-off.) Meanwhile, we can all see much further into the future than the street and The Street, so we all know this upward pressure will increase not decrease. As people begin to challenge their own beliefs, they'll read further and discover our stories in the mix. SNOWBALL in the works.

I see it in my own neighborhood. Trump followers near me amused by my enthusiasm, but now they're curious about our new Tesla Energy. (Keep in mind one of them owns a Porsche so the Taycan thing is probably eating at him slowly). They don't think they can afford $30-40K, but then I layout the math and how I'm pocketing cash back from a battery rebate... they go silent. Wait until they see my power bills next month.

At some point, these people will feel left out like they missed an another Apple moment and pile in as well. (Oh wait, I meant Amazon moment). These are followers, and they will eventually follow, but now I'm talking 2020+ and a much higher SP than 400.

Just before this rally started, my brokers were pitying me and I was getting calls to go over my portfolio and balance it. Lucky I didn't.
Almost at ATH now ...

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 1.5 hours ago: Tesla shares are trading higher on continued momentum after S&P affirms its ratings on the stock and raised its outlook from Negative to positive. The S&P outlook upgrade is related to the improving business prospects and the increased likelihood of the company's credit metric that will improve more than the S&P's base case projection.

 

[SOULPEDL]

All I can say is that I wish I'd been more aggressive with my releveraging strategy. I got burned in Q1 / early Q2 by going too aggressive with releveraging and ran out of steam, so I've tried not to make the same mistake again. That said, I may be pushing "holding off" too far given the circumstances (was waiting for a 25-point drop from my deleveraging point before starting, which would have been $307-308... just missed it ).

I'm holding for now (hard), but I don't know what I'm going to do when it hits $390. Meanwhile, in the back of my head I don't want to miss 420 and beyond. It's going to get harder to hold.

 

[printf42]

Just sold one of my shorter term 350 calls, now we should be free to knock that 350 wall.
Thank me later.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Predictions for closing price tomorrow? Opricot is showing $315 max pain.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One word of caution: pre-market trading volume is only 11k TSLA shares so far - so this is light trading that might be reversed during the regular trading session.

TSLA trading as projected today:

• 78K shares traded by 08:00 am EST
• 9.6M shares traded by 'half-time' (12:45 EST)
• SP trading near $340; SP up $13.50 +4.1%

That'll work. Boz shortz tryin' to cap SP at $340 over the lunch hour. Planning an organized withdrawal? Else its a rout w/o big shortzies and deep pockets.

 

[Causalien]

I am one who is buying TSLA to use to buy a Tesla.

I can understand the concept of the "costing" if the stock continues to rise, but in reality, that's completely false. The person put in $X into the stock, and got back $Y. As long as that's not less than they put in, then they gained whatever $Z was. The stock could easily drop off a cliff after they sell, like TSLA did after Q1 2019, and if they had sold their shares at the previous $380, does it make their car worth more or less when the stock was $180?

Hindsight is always present in the game of stocks, but it makes no difference to the choices you make with your stocks at the current. If you want/need to make a purchase, and you use your stocks, it doesn't matter what the future of the stocks will be. You should only care about purchase price, and sell price.

Ya if you read Jesse Livermore's reminiscences of a stock operator, connecting stock trading to something you want to buy is one of the mindsets to avoid. It usually lead you down a path where you are no longer making logical moves.

There is a lot of psychology involved in stock trading and investments. That still holds true today in an ai dominated trading world.

 

[wipster]

Reminds me of my brother. Bought a f250 pick up. Largest thing he ever hauled was a suit case. Parking it a bitch maintenance a nightmare but he kept it for 4 years. Last year he bought a AWD model3 (lives in fla, never travels) kept it for 6 months put on less than 1500 miles and sold it. No issues what so ever with it. He bought a new 150,000 rv and in 5 months has yet to have taken a trip with it. The really weird thing is he is retired on limited income and using his life savings (less than 200K) for these moves. People are impulsive and unpredictable. I expect him to get the new tesla pickup once he sells his rv

What an awakening he's going to have when he passes away and goes to the next dimension and finds out... You actually CANtake it with you...

 

[SteveG3]

I wonder how the increase in stock price affects demand. I bet there is a non-trivial amount of people who are using their gains in TSLA to buy a tesla.

What's more, I suspect there is a considerable number of people who thought they'd do that with the Model 3 over the past 2 years, but, got gun shy when the stock was hit so hard several times over those years.

Not quite the impact today as when Tesla was just selling the Model S (10s of thousands of cars/year), but, it doesn't hurt, and happy Tesla/TSLA owners are great brand ambassadors : )

 

[StealthP3D]

So they are opening ever-increasing short positions? Or are selling low and buying high?

I've seen a few plausible theories of the specifics explained right here. But the bottom line is that with a large enough bankroll, you can move markets and by judiciously timing those moves you can impact investor sentiment and dampen or prevent break-outs to the upside and encourage or amplify fear-based selling to the downside. It's all about judiciously controlling the short term moves to re-write the mid-term moves which impact the absolute highs and lows to the downside.

I can't emphasize enough how much grey area there is as to the valuation of a stock like Tesla and it's mostly a matter of investor perceptions and sentiment which are more easily manipulated when there is so much grey area. We are definitely on a break-out to the upside and I think it will go further than most people think (with minor retracements along the way of course). I feel confident in high $300's before the end of the year and will not be surprised to see it well above $400.

 

[adiggs]

Maybe tomorrow you could order something worth $380?

Not advice.

Advice!