Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LYTRIDR]

Call from Tesla Board of Directors?

Mod note: I am not regularly on this thread anymore and searched it as well as looking over the last few pages of comments and did not see this discussed, remove if not appropriate.

My office phone rang today and a guy on the other end of the line said he had been tasked by the Tesla BOD to reach out and make sure that I'd voted my shares. I'm by no means a large shareholder, but did buy early enough that my position is substantial for my portfolio. He asked if I'd gotten my proxy info by mail and if I'd like to vote today by phone. I found this super weird and honestly a bit desperate. I declined and told him I planned to vote online (and i do.) Is this a common occurence? Is it a scammer?

 

[Zero CO2]

Call from Tesla Board of Directors?

Mod note: I am not regularly on this thread anymore and searched it as well as looking over the last few pages of comments and did not see this discussed, remove if not appropriate.

My office phone rang today and a guy on the other end of the line said he had been tasked by the Tesla BOD to reach out and make sure that I'd voted my shares. I'm by no means a large shareholder, but did buy early enough that my position is substantial for my portfolio. He asked if I'd gotten my proxy info by mail and if I'd like to vote today by phone. I found this super weird and honestly a bit desperate. I declined and told him I planned to vote online (and i do.) Is this a common occurence? Is it a scammer?

not sure if it is legit or not but Tesla needs to get out the vote if they want the move to Texas to pass ... an abstention is a no vote ...

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if all new Tesla vehicles will have an 800V/48V architecture.

The CT battery pack can split in half to charge at 400V, but the native mode is 800V charging.

If think this possibly impacts on the Supercharger rollout, because deploying more V3 Superchargers might not be a future-proof idea.

New V3 Superchargers are being installed, but I see this as tidying up and completing the previous program.

When no new V3 chargers are being opened, that is a possible sign that Tesla is now following the revised plan.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder if all new Tesla vehicles will have an 800V/48V architecture.

The CT battery pack can split in half to charge at 400V, but the native mode is 800V charging.

If think this possibly impacts on the Supercharger rollout, because deploying more V3 Superchargers might not be a future-proof idea.

New V3 Superchargers are being installed, but I see this as tidying up and completing the previous program.

When no new V3 chargers are being opened, that is a possible sign that Tesla is now following the revised plan.

Maybe. Because I have been following the planned sites on supercharger.info since the big lay off and the number of planned sites has been steadily dropping although they are probably dropping because more are under construction. Others are completed.

 

[wipster]

You are moving the goalposts here. Be careful with that. You may score an own goal.

Indeed... but I had another term in mind.

 

[ggies07]

Hmmmm, as someone who lives in the DFW area, if only there was some device that was small enough to be in every home to decentralize power usage and not have to rely on wires.....and if there was some type of social construct that would look after its citizens and put in place these devices.....hmmmmm.....as Pooh Bear says "think, think, think.....oh bother."

Judge Jenkins press conference - Dallas Morning News

 

[skybluecgreen]

Informative, non-paywall Tom Randall article on EV growth and Tesla's part in that. He feels EV growth is healthy and will continue to be so while Tesla is held back by the lack of new models
The Slowdown in US Electric Vehicle Sales Looks More Like a Blip

Leaves me wondering, 'what about those new models, the first of which could come as early as the end of the year?' I feel the coming new models Musk informed us about on earnings day were the main reason for the following pop in the stock to 198. Since then I have not heard a peep about them and little speculation here.

Are we really going to see new models/variants soon beyond just a Juniper Y?

 

[MC3OZ]

Are we really going to see new models/variants soon beyond just a Juniper Y?

I always assume Tesla are dong to do what they say they are going to do unless.
1) It is a bad idea, or 2) it is very hard to do.

1) This looks like a great idea to me, and sometimes challenges and limitations force companies to find great solutions.
2) I can't see why this would be fundamentally hard to do, it will be very similar to making Model Ys.

The new compact models should have a smaller battery making them cheaper, but also meaning the same volume of cells can build more vehicles. They should be lighter and more efficient that a Model 3/Y, but may also have a bit less range.

This part is speculative - I have noticed that Model Y production at Austin is lumpy, it definitely shuts down on a Friday and sometimes seems slow to get moving on a Monday. Tesla doing some work on producing the new models at Austin over the weekend seems logical, perhaps a bit of Friday afternoon/night and Monday morning in addition to Saturday and Sunday. No real leaks or other evidence to suggest that is happening, it is just a logical thing to do,

 

[Matias]

VW plans to launch 20 000€ EV 2027

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

However "Volkswagen Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz in March warned that making a profit off budget EVs is “very difficult.".

 

[alexxs88]

So, my entire post was about the lack of a "threat" or "blackmail" from Elon, despite the way the media keeps presenting it.

No, please check what I quoted from your post. You said Tesla makes a lot of money, does share buybacks and Elon gets to the required 25%. I'm not aware of any financial mechanism in which these things would happen. If anything, as I mentioned, in order for elon to get to his 25%, the easiest way is for the stock price to go really low and and for his other businesses to do really well.

 

[alexxs88]

the company can effectively buy back shares to increase everybody (including Elon's) percent ownership.

I missed this part of your post. That's not how math works. They'd just reduce the number of shares, but the percentage ownership obviously stays the same.

 

[Matias]

I missed this part of your post. That's not how math works. They'd just reduce the number of shares, but the percentage ownership obviously stays the same.

Yes. Owners combined ownership percentage is 100% before and after buyback

Edit; On the other hand, when company buys shares and some owners sell and others don't, their ownership percentage changes.

 

[EQC_]

I missed this part of your post. That's not how math works. They'd just reduce the number of shares, but the percentage ownership obviously stays the same.

Oh wait...really? My Apologies if I'm dumb.

Simple numbers for easy math:

Let's say Elon holds 100 shares, and there are 500 shares total available. I was thinking that means Elon has 20% ownership and, important to him, 20% of the votes.

If Tesla buys back 100 shares, now Elon has 100 shares of 400 available. I was thinking that would make Elon's voting be 25%. Is that not the case?

I just figured that whoever sold shares to Tesla in a buyback is effectively losing ownership (obviously) and so I figured that would make every holder's effective percentage larger.

 

[EQC_]

... If anything, as I mentioned, in order for elon to get to his 25%, the easiest way is for the stock price to go really low and and for his other businesses to do really well.

Super optimistic dream: Twitter / X becomes huge...$200 billion or whatever Elon predicted. Goes public, Elon sells big chunk, and puts it back into Tesla.

 

[alexxs88]

Oh wait...really? My Apologies if I'm dumb.

Simple numbers for easy math:

Let's say Elon holds 100 shares, and there are 500 shares total available. I was thinking that means Elon has 20% ownership and, important to him, 20% of the votes.

If Tesla buys back 100 shares, now Elon has 100 shares of 400 available. I was thinking that would make Elon's voting be 25%. Is that not the case?

I just figured that whoever sold shares to Tesla in a buyback is effectively losing ownership (obviously) and so I figured that would make every holder's effective percentage larger.

They buy them from the market as far as I know. So I get the underlying message of what you're saying, but it would be very hard for Tesla to buyback ~50% of their outstanding shares in order to make Elon's 12.9% effectively be 25.8%.

 

[alexxs88]

Super optimistic dream: Twitter / X becomes huge...$200 billion or whatever Elon predicted. Goes public, Elon sells big chunk, and puts it back into Tesla.

That's the scenario I find likely if Musk is serious about getting back to 25% no matter what. Not Twitter though. Potentially SpaceX.

 

[hobbes]

Interesting that German energy giant RWE (mostly known for brown coal mining around where I live but becoming player in regenerative energies also lately) is building a big battery in Australia, and more interesting that it is choosing Tesla as a supplier. Maybe the popularity of Tesla in Australia will help make it more common in Europe also when RWE decides to partner with them again..

German energy giant presses go on Australia’s first eight-hour big battery

Green light given for Australia’s first eight-hour big battery, with Tesla to supply the technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

Seems like Tesla might really be trying to get more into the European market:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795540479158948281

 

[aubreymcfato]

The majority of investors voted for it.

Yes. Around 60%? I don't remember.

There are not a large faction of voters who will vote no.

Mmm, there were and there will be institutions that will vote No, and suggest to vote No. Uncle Leo voted No with his 27 millions shares. Morale is very low outside here, go check on X. This time will be a much closer call.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I wonder if all new Tesla vehicles will have an 800V/48V architecture.

The CT battery pack can split in half to charge at 400V, but the native mode is 800V charging.

If think this possibly impacts on the Supercharger rollout, because deploying more V3 Superchargers might not be a future-proof idea.

New V3 Superchargers are being installed, but I see this as tidying up and completing the previous program.

When no new V3 chargers are being opened, that is a possible sign that Tesla is now following the revised plan.

Apart from a few stragglers*, as far as I know all recent UK Superchargers have been V4 with V3-style power.

*straggler V3 dispensers in UK - sites held up by planning - kit probably reserved nearby but only recently installed. You don't want to redo any planning or power approvals if granted (UK).

I would imagine that Tesla only want to make one Supercharger model at a time. Perhaps UK/Rest of Europe ones came from China, perhaps USA (Buffalo) has taken a while to ramp.

Perhaps a revision to V4 is needed due to experience in the field (arctic to desert in Europe and China). Perhaps 800 volt cabinets need revision after limited (under the radar) field testing in extreme weather.

My guess is that V4 will roll out in North America to newer sites, but most importantly will be sold to BP Pulse USA and EG Group USA and others. I would imagine that the 800-1000 volt (?) V4 dispensers will have the cabinets & other equipment to handle the higher voltages and power.


EV Point (EG Group) already have Tesla V4 charger sites in the UK, but EG Group have significant operations in North America & Australia (multiple brands).

Arguably, the best way to support transition to renewables/EVs is to sell the hardware at a good price to others and let them handle the land/power/permit issues. V4 dispensers are said to be one third the price of competitors and don't have multiple customisations, so reliability can be better. Perhaps cabinets & other gubbins are similarly cheap.

We might see huge scale on V4 production, with only some being installed by Tesla, some more serviced by Tesla and otherwise a growing EV charger infrastructure grows around V4 planning, install and servicing while avoiding monopoly accusations which might slow adoption.

NEVI & other funding might also be easier to get if it's BP/EG and not Tesla.

Spoiler: image-Uk-V4-EG Group

 

[mongo]

The CT has been on the road, with customers, months before any version of FSD V12 was released and 12.4 has "almost completely retrained models" from 12.3. If were just as easy as turning it on, they would have.

I think Knightshade's point is that new vehicles take time to get FSD to work.

I didn't read it as @Knightshade's own point of view, but rather that the two option they listed are counter to each other.

Also, Elon tells us the hardest part is validation. Validation takes time on a new platform, but with Cybertruck FSD coming relatively soon, the technical hurdles must not be too bad.

We are talking about less than a year from launch to put FSD on an entirely new vehicle. They must not need that much new data for it.

Yeah, and that that fits with the 'easy' argument on the training side where easy doesn't mean fast or resource independent. It is easy to move a pile of small rocks one rock at a tine, but it will take a while. If you know the pile will be moved again, that there will be shovels available, and that less than 20k people will be inconvenienced for less than 6 months on average, why bother?
Easy != worth doing.

Depending how the end to end network is set up, they could have a directly tunable physics and camera transform layer (camera autocalibration might do it too). Still doesn't warrant hitting the build all button for a soon to be depreciated release.
Note: many recent brought up quotes were from pre-end-to-end-times when there was a discrete coded camera mapping layer before the NNs.

Like you mention, they could also have forecast Cyberfleet size for validation confidence. Quite possible it was impossible for 12.4 (or previous) to collect the vehicle hours needed before the next release dropped.

They *could* be collecting data now, but I'm not seeing an increase in upload since delivery. One point !=trend though.