Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Do you always think this small? I learned a long time ago to not limit myself. It's the primary reason why I've ridden some very large waves without selling a single share until at or near the top. My most important takeaway is that a good stock will amaze you with the kind of multiples it can return in just a few years of growth. I laugh when I hear comments like "Oh, my, what will I do when it gets all the way up to $420"! $420 is nothing, barely above where it's at right now!

Edit: Oh, Lordy, I just saw you are 59 YO and 100% in Tesla! Sell half of it right now!

Yes, you would almost certainly be better off holding it all but when all your investable assets are in one stock you are vunerable to a lot of things. "Almost certainly" does not equal "certainly".

Ah yes. But I left out a minor detail (for the better story). My retirement pales in comparison to my wife's, and she's broadly invested. It actually follows our relationship, complete opposites, happily married 17 yrs now Good news is that she's really smart and fully understands what's going on with Tesla. She recently moved from Capacity Analyst to Master Planner. She understands growth when she sees the cars coming off the production lines.

So between us, we're pretty balanced afterall.

 

[Yuri_G]

Is that the sort of technical analysis I should use when buying stock?


I've not seen any numbers on how much better Tesla batteries are than other brands. A lot of that stuff we will never know. It's not like GM, Audi, VW, etc. are using batteries in their cars that you can buy for your flashlight. In reality there is no "winner". The various battery features are tradeoffs and optimizing the choices for EV use is important. Car buyers won't know this car has a better kWh/kg battery. What matters is the end product which we will know about when other car makers come out with their new models.

Tesla does seem to have a handle on managing the batteries. Kia, for example I'm told doesn't protect their batteries as well and so they degrade faster. This is an aspect of battery design that can be observed much like a car's engine or transmission wearing out too early.

Color me shocked.

 

[SpaceCash]

While you cannot expect real estate to be more profitable than a Tesla rocket, it is a much safer bet.
Houses in my old neighborhood appreciated 12-24% per year. Granted there are upkeep expenses, but still quite a safe investment when properly insured.

Where is your old neighborhood? Looking to use my VA home loan on something spicy

 

[ggies07]

Is that the sort of technical analysis I should use when buying stock?

No, but this video is and it's from 2013.

Which means Tesla has improved even more and it shows - A million mile battery:

J. Electrochem. Soc. 2019 Harlow A3031 44 | Lithium Ion Battery | Electric Vehicle


You need to do more research before posting me thinks....

 

[EVDRVN]

So, you are saying a two-bedroom fixer-upper on a small lot in the Bay Area for $1,200,000 is a good investment? How much would the annual taxes on that be?

OK, then. I would be more likely to put the money into TSLA.

When did you buy your hones?

 

[SpaceCash]

I've not seen any numbers on how much better Tesla batteries are than other brands. A lot of that stuff we will never know. It's not like GM, Audi, VW, etc. are using batteries in their cars that you can buy for your flashlight. In reality there is no "winner".

This is hilariously disingenuous.

There is a clear "winner".
Peep Recent NerdBurgerKing lap times
Check out who has the best BEV ranges
Enlighten yourself as to who has the best safety ratings

 

[Christine69420]

Bjørn Nyland met and intervjued a guy teaching Emergency First Responders how to drive. They recently bought a Model S for this.

Highlights:

• Drove in 230 km/h or 145 miles/h on dry winter roads using winter tires
  
• After testing TMS, TMX TM3 and eTron: There was no doubt: Tesla
• About an eTron ambulance: "they have a huge problem with range when passing 150" (as in km/h) "But with this one you can go 300 km with no problem. Really fast." (about their TMS).

Page 5000 yay!

 

[Vines]

Like many things its a matter of perspective. From mine, a home in the bay area is a safer investment than stocks. I also hold a smallish TSLA position.

As far a big earthquake, unless you have a house that gets hit on the fault line, the worst you will see is some damage.

Imagine a 100k damaged home from serious earthquake. Thats likely a 50-100 year event, Investor would take a 10% loss on that.

FYI a house out here can easily rent for 4-5k per month, which is enough to pay off insurance and taxes while the principal grows at that 12-24% per year.

OTOH a million invested in tesla is significantly more risky, though a much greater upside. Though there is risk in both approaches.

An investor with 1 million dollars in each starting last year would have to have a very high risk tolerance to watch it drop to half that after
Q1 earnings, and still hold hoping for that rebound.

Regardless there is merit to both and a diverse investment strategy is always important to manage risk.

 

[jerry33]

it's easy to look at your buy price and sale price and come to the conclusion that home ownership is a phenomenal investment, but that's super naive. try running the numbers once you've factored in all the bills, maintenance, insurance, taxes, upkeep, interest, and other expenses, and you will find a simple index fund generally outpaces home ownership in overall rate of return in practically all cases. certainly there are outliers, but it's not the norm.

Of course it depends on where you live, but around here renting a house has been about $1400 which increased to $1700/month over 20 years that's $310,000 using lazy math. Taxes plus improvements over 20 years has been about $150,000 (taxes < $3000/year). House prices are low here, so $95,000 for the purchase price, current price should be about $250,000. (Mortgage $400/month, but paid off much quicker). It would have been pretty hard to justify renting a house.

Of course, if by renting you mean a one room apartment, that's different.

 

[Swampgator]

Is that the sort of technical analysis I should use when buying stock?


I've not seen any numbers on how much better Tesla batteries are than other brands. A lot of that stuff we will never know. It's not like GM, Audi, VW, etc. are using batteries in their cars that you can buy for your flashlight. In reality there is no "winner". The various battery features are tradeoffs and optimizing the choices for EV use is important. Car buyers won't know this car has a better kWh/kg battery. What matters is the end product which we will know about when other car makers come out with their new models.

Tesla does seem to have a handle on managing the batteries. Kia, for example I'm told doesn't protect their batteries as well and so they degrade faster. This is an aspect of battery design that can be observed much like a car's engine or transmission wearing out too early.

Ok a little more detail for you, assuming you are a real investor and not a troll:

If GM, Audi, and VW are all using similar batteries, why are all of their cars so inefficient? Audi e-turd for example needs a 94kwH pack to get 204 mile EPA range. Tesla model Y will get 280 miles EPA using a 75kwH pack. The Audi weighs 1000 pounds more. They need that much energy just to get that pig down the road for over 200 miles. The motors can only differ by a few percentage points in efficiency. The drag coefficient can save some, but not that much.
Conclusion: battery energy density on a gravimetric basis is that much better for Tesla. They also have the lowest cost per KwH in the industry.
These are serious advantages, and with the upcoming Maxwell tech they will increase this lead. You will see this on Nov 21rst.
Place your bets accordingly.

 

[Vines]

Where is your old neighborhood? Looking to use my VA home loan on something spicy

Its the Mount Hermon Neighborhood in Santa Cruz County. Very good market, we bought in at 390k about 25 years ago.

 

[JustMe]

Is that the sort of technical analysis I should use when buying stock?


I've not seen any numbers on how much better Tesla batteries are than other brands. A lot of that stuff we will never know. It's not like GM, Audi, VW, etc. are using batteries in their cars that you can buy for your flashlight. In reality there is no "winner". The various battery features are tradeoffs and optimizing the choices for EV use is important. Car buyers won't know this car has a better kWh/kg battery. What matters is the end product which we will know about when other car makers come out with their new models.

Tesla does seem to have a handle on managing the batteries. Kia, for example I'm told doesn't protect their batteries as well and so they degrade faster. This is an aspect of battery design that can be observed much like a car's engine or transmission wearing out too early.

Actually quite a lot is known about batteries and their performance in Teslas and other makes and models. As you point out the consumer doesn’t really care what kind of battery the car uses. But it certainly does make a difference for several things consumers definitely care about: cost, range, and battery lifetime (range degradation). Tesla soundly beats the competition on all of these key metrics, thanks to their lead in battery technology. Tesla's approach to battery technology keeps it ahead in the EV industry

 

[Swampgator]

Ok a little more detail for you, assuming you are a real investor and not a troll:

If GM, Audi, and VW are all using similar batteries, why are all of their cars so inefficient? Audi e-turd for example needs a 94kwH pack to get 204 mile EPA range. Tesla model Y will get 280 miles EPA using a 75kwH pack. The Audi weighs 1000 pounds more. They need that much energy just to get that pig down the road for over 200 miles. The motors can only differ by a few percentage points in efficiency. The drag coefficient can save some, but not that much.
Conclusion: battery energy density on a gravimetric basis is that much better for Tesla. They also have the lowest cost per KwH in the industry.
These are serious advantages, and with the upcoming Maxwell tech they will increase this lead. You will see this on Nov 21rst.
Place your bets accordingly.

Just to put a finer point on it, the Tesla Model X with a larger battery of 100kwh still weighs in a couple hundred pounds less than the E-turd. You think that is all from Tesla world renowned body in white tech?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

. I recently read somewhere that Tesla chose a battery with the highest energy density but they are relatively unstable and are prone to rapid degradation. So other automakers are using lower energy density batteries with better stability.

let me guess... seeking alpha?

 

[woodisgood]

“NerdBurgerKing”. I just spit out my coffee.

 

[jerry33]

paying zero dollars in interest and property taxes while seeing your sale price triple is absolutely an outlier.

The interest was about 4% though that varied over time. IIRC, towards the end it was 5%. Taxes are just under $3K per year. And yes, I did a 30% downpayment from the proceeds of the previous house (where the value really increased).

 

[adiggs]

...

(home ownership)
That's offset by opportunity cost. If you didn't own you would have that cash sitting in the bank.

Actually, owning a home has a major correlation to unemployment. When you own you are less able to move for work. ​

Absolutely true. And having achieved that state for most of a decade (owning the house outright), it was a tremendous source of peace of mind. One big part of that peace of mind is there was definitely a limit on how much work could mess with me - I always knew I could walk out the door and get a job at 1/4 the pay and still be fine. There's a LOT of work available at 1/4 or 1/2 the pay for most anybody.

That doesn't work as well with the mortgage.


We all use our money to acquire things that are important to us. One of the things outright ownership buys for me is a lower monthly cash outgo, and that expands the universe of work / jobs I can do that will still satisfy the monthly outgo / living expenses.

 

[M3Rider]

It's a round page number. We're half way there for the year.

 

[Pezpunk]

The interest was about 4% though that varied over time. IIRC, towards the end it was 5%. Taxes are just under $3K per year. And yes, I did a 30% downpayment from the proceeds of the previous house (where the value really increased).

do you know how much you paid in interest total? spoiler alert, it's a lot more than 5% of the price of the home.

 

[printf42]

Please don’t feed the troll in page 5000, so more people can leave a mark.

Edit:
sorry guys, I got the post #100000, lol