Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

The other critical point missed by many on the Tesla Forums (not all...just most are lookign at Tesla auto and maybe solar) is that starlink has a 60 sat addition due in about 1/2 an hour. Assuming that goes well , it will be a 120 sat fleet, many more than competitors and fcc approval for over 10k. It could seriously re set the terrestrial broadband pricing schemes in the US.

It would be 125. You forgot the oringal launch of 5

 

[nativewolf]

Elon doesn’t approve of customer acquisition costs. Better, faster, cheaper product + Twitter + Word of mouth seems to do the trick.

True but in this case the customer is going to have to buy a steerable phased array sat dish receiver that has custom chips designed by tesla and that will keep the pentagon out as a client until the security is checked out. That leaves Telco's and HNWs ships, commercial ships, etc as clients. Not a huge market but they'll need to get 1000 up so as to have coverage over target latitudes 20-40. Then they add capacity to attract more customers.

They'll have to get that receiver costs way down though. It might be better but if that box costs too much (and that is a pricey bitch right now) it will prevent adoption.

 

[Christine69420]

Finally,
Norway is stepping up its game. Today is at 59, and counting.
They probably stole a ship from Netherlands.
Tesla Registration Stats

I've heard it's about 700 cars on that ship. I have no other source than chat logs...

 

[nativewolf]

OT
SpaceX should seriously prepare for space mining. They have solved the most difficult piece of the puzzle, the rest is relatively easy, could be done in three years. The potential in this area is many times larger than the entire internet services business in the world. In this case Elon/SpaceX should prepare to accumulate Tesla shares, because they literally will have ship load of money keeps coming.

so check out the casyhandmer.wordpress.com blog for an interesting take on this. In summary, space mining doesn't make sense if products go back to earth. Earth is cheaper source of resources.

 

[EVNow]

MM will have risk limits and sometimes regulatory restrictions on taking outright positions, however the risk reward structure in finance is to gamble as much as you can get away with. If it goes well you get a huge bonus, if it goes badly you only get your base salary but little worse than that.

That depends on the role. The IT VP of a broker can't take the same risks as a VP of trading desk who can't take the same risks as the VP of the investment group.

Sometimes MM can get away with not being fully hedged for a brief period, for example dumping their stock (which they own as a call option hedge) in the day on a Friday before option expiry, leaving them unhedged for a few hours but driving price pressure that can increase the P&L on their options. Many MMs may be able to fit this strategy into their risk limits.

Hedging efficiency is where MMs make or lose money. The programs continuously monitor the open calls & puts, their delta and the resulting hedging that is needed. The programs will maintain the long or short position as needed in 100s of stocks that MMs trade in. They won't close out the positions until the very end (as a lot of calls/puts anyway get closed).

Ofcourse not all MMs are the same. There are over 200, IIRC in US. The top brokers are likely better at this because they have spent more on their systems - while smaller ones may not be that good and could also concentrate on a few stocks and have more manual processes.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow. My 11/15 $360 call is actually worth something now and has a shot at closing well.

 

[ReflexFunds]

That depends on the role. The IT VP of a broker can't take the same risks as a VP of trading desk who can't take the same risks as the VP of the investment group.


Hedging efficiency is where MMs make or lose money. The programs continuously monitor the open calls & puts, their delta and the resulting hedging that is needed. The programs will maintain the long or short position as needed in 100s of stocks that MMs trade in. They won't close out the positions until the very end (as a lot of calls/puts anyway get closed).

Ofcourse not all MMs are the same. There are over 200, IIRC in US. The top brokers are likely better at this because they have spent more on their systems - while smaller ones may not be that good and could also concentrate on a few stocks and have more manual processes.

I don’t know many traders that do not want to take as much risk as possible. They hedge because they have to, not always because they want to. Sometimes they don’t have to be fully hedged.

 

[HG Wells]

In 45 minutes we did 1/2 the typical daily volume.

If the NASDAQ turns positive it would move even more.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like $346 is today's battle...

 

[HG Wells]

Looks like $346 is today's battle...

No, Three fiddy will be todays real battle.

 

[SOULPEDL]

so check out the casyhandmer.wordpress.com blog for an interesting take on this. In summary, space mining doesn't make sense if products go back to earth. Earth is cheaper source of resources.

Not if they use Amazon Prime.

 

[GOVA]

According to Morten on twitter
Morten Grove on Twitter

Looks like Elon is headed for Europe. At least his jet is.

He just feels like schnitzel for lunch. That's all.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Do we think Tesla will open up pre-ordering or reservations for CyberTruck at unveiling? I can imagine a frenzy like Model 3, 100’s of thousands probably.

And what about the deposit required? $1,000, $2,000?

 

[EVNow]

I don’t know many traders that do not want to take as much risk as possible. They hedge because they have to, not always because they want to. Sometimes they don’t have to be fully hedged.

Those traders are actually in the investment group. Not trading desk. Trading desk is mainly operational folk who assist customers with trading and provide MM services (depends, some brokers may separate the functions). MM operations will likely have a small group of business folks and tons of IT folk.

 

[hacer]

Which VP of which MM wants to bet his job/career by not hedging properly ?

Actually on the last day, during market hours, an MM may decide to un-hedge and drive the stock towards max pain (of their counterparties) to maximize profits. It's a judgement call and if it starts to go wrong against them, they'll just unwind it. I don't think any option MMs will be un-heged except on the last day, and only if they think it's very likely they can move the market to favor them.

Edit: the original "not-hedged" option writers I was describing with "lost bets" would not be option MMs, or at least it would be their proprietary trading desks rather than the MM desks that would do such a thing. I was think these would be TSLAQ hedge funds. Even they aren't stupid enough to try to save a deeply lost option bet through trading manipulation.

 

[Nocturnal]

Do we think Tesla will open up pre-ordering or reservations for CyberTruck at unveiling? I can imagine a frenzy like Model 3, 100’s of thousands probably.

And what do we about the deposit required? $1,000, $2,000?

I should think so. As far as deposit, probably depends on their anticipated demand and projected capacity. I could see it being a few grand.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

No, Three fiddy will be todays real battle.

So long as it's not 300...I'm good!

Dan

 

[GOVA]

OT
SpaceX should seriously prepare for space mining. They have solved the most difficult piece of the puzzle, the rest is relatively easy, could be done in three years. The potential in this area is many times larger than the entire internet services business in the world. In this case Elon/SpaceX should prepare to accumulate Tesla shares, because they literally will have ship load of money keeps coming.

Unless there is element 115 to get, it ain't worth the $$$.

 

[S3XY]

Is it just me or do I find myself dumber and dumber the longer I read posts in this forum? Puts, calls, options, charts, deltas, max pain, bulls, bears, etc. etc.

I just bought the stock and hope I make some money to lower the cost of my Model Y purchase. Is that a bad thing? You guys and gals are WAY smarter than me! I fell like I am just along for the ride. LOL!

Dan

Don't feel bad. There are many here in the same boat (including me). I religiously read this thread just to stay on top of what's going on with my investment in Tesla. There's no better place to get all the pertinent news including some of the short views. And I don't so much mind the off-topic wanderings as long as they don't get carried away and drone on and on. I've learned a lot of things I didn't know about in both on and off topic posts from Fact Checking, Karen Rei, long lost Neroden (whom I often disagreed with but gained much knowledge from), as well as numerous others here. As my "contribution" I just try to interject some occasional humor off hours or when things are slow so as not to get in the way of the pros.

 

[elasalle]

Do we think Tesla will open up pre-ordering or reservations for CyberTruck at unveiling? I can imagine a frenzy like Model 3, 100’s of thousands probably.

And what do we about the deposit required? $1,000, $2,000?

While Model 3 reservations was overwhelming, Model Y was not it seems.
Anyway no reason to not open orders. Should help get a pulse on what demand will be like ....