Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I think they know where Elons plane is.

NOTE: Didn't its location use to be blocked ?

Oh noes, it was unblocked to pump the SP, someone call the SEC!!!

 

[Sancho]

Not sure this Chinese review (now English subbed) has been posted here yet:

First Shangai-produced Tesla review.

Money quote: “Elon Musk talks about the machine that builds the machine. I think [GF3] is the miracle that built the miracle.”

 

[SunCatcher]

9 hours to lift off.

Premarket OT:
If anyone knows of a resource for tracking the visible path of these satellites in the days after launch, while they are still lined up, I would sure appreciate a heads up on it! I love the possibility of light shows like these in our skies!
/OT

Edit; not meaning to get a conversation going here on this; the TSLA investor discussion thread...

 

[HG Wells]

Premarket OT:
If anyone knows of a resource for tracking the visible path of these satellites in the days after launch, while they are still lined up, I would sure appreciate a heads up on it! I love the possibility of light shows like these in our skies!
/OT

Unfortunately due to complaints from Astronomers (very justified complaints) the reflectivity has been reduced significantly.
No bright shiny objects for you.

EDIT
But Starlink is important. It could make a HELL of a lot of money for Elon that he could invest in Tesla.
Also its still 10 minutes till tea time.

Tallyho !

Edit Edit. Looks like more than one rocket will be launched today.

 

[hacer]

If you look at the per price level open interest data I posted (rounded to $10 for easier visualization), then you'll see that the vast majority of open PUT options are below $340. I believe down to $300 or so the put/call ratio is almost 1:1 on a same-strike-price basis, so there's no near term interest for MM's to manipulate the price in the $300-$340 range - it's a zero-sum game.

For any MM's that are not delta neutral for those ~100k options at around $230-$280 there's an interest in driving down the price - but I think most are delta neutral, i.e. they don't really care.

On this forum it would be good to separately describe puts and calls for those that don't understand options. The delta for puts in the $230-$280 range (way out of the money) is near zero, while the delta for calls in that range is nearly 1 (at least those expiring soon). Thus a MM hardly needs to have any short position to hedge those worthless puts, but needs to have almost 100 shares/contract of long TSLA to hedge those calls. When properly hedged, there is no incentive to move to max-pain. When not hedged, it only makes sense to try to move the market (at least by buying or selling) a small amount (maybe $10 at most), otherwise the risk/reward is very unfavorable to attempt to save an already lost bet. Thus if the $300 to $340 range is zero-sum (as claimed, I didn't verify), there will be no reason now to expect any sort of max-pain change.

 

[JustMe]

Tweet today from Morten Grove Morten Grove on Twitter

“Latest demand figures I have for the Netherlands is 20,000 unfulfilled Model 3 orders. It seem extremely high, but I was immediately corrected by a Dutch-handle here on Twitter when i stated "12,000". My bet is Netherlands is going to smash Norway+UK collective this Quarter.“

Explains the mad rush of ships to Europe this quarter.

I’ve been patiently debating the “cratering demand “ for Tesla in Europe with a short seller who has been tracking eu-EVs.com daily registration data. A lot of these folks still don’t get that Tesla is the only major automaker that doesn’t have dealerships in every town and their European inventory is mostly floating in the ocean...

 

[nativewolf]

The other critical point missed by many on the Tesla Forums (not all...just most are lookign at Tesla auto and maybe solar) is that starlink has a 60 sat addition due in about 1/2 an hour. Assuming that goes well , it will be a 120 sat fleet, many more than competitors and fcc approval for over 10k. It could seriously re set the terrestrial broadband pricing schemes in the US.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Finally,
Norway is stepping up its game. Today is at 59, and counting.
They probably stole a ship from Netherlands.
Tesla Registration Stats

 

[hacer]

Delta is less than 1 so a market maker needs to buy less than $100m shares to delta hedge their short call option. It may also be partially hedged with other options rather than stock.
Plus some hedge funds are selling unhedged calls.

Yes, delta is less than 1, but barely for a short-term deep-in-the-money call option. It can be partially hedged by taking a position in a similar call with either a different strike or different expiration, but the counter-party to that trade would hedge by buying the stock. So, surprisingly, @MFranc123 got something basically right.

Edit: Yes, it's also possible some hedge fund will take on a $100 million anti-Tesla bet just as an investor is essentially taking a position, but I think that's rare. In my case, I bought a measly 6 calls over $100 in-the-money with 10 months of time last October which expired worthless. If somebody sold those naked to me they were a big winner and took a lot of my money.

 

[MP3Mike]

Nice to see the price target raised....but they are off by a factor of 10

it depends what the horizon is for his estimate. Don't they normally estimate 12 months out? I don't expect TSLA to be to $4000 in 12 months. (isn't the $4k target from ARK for like 5 years from now?)

 

[aubreymcfato]

The other critical point missed by many on the Tesla Forums (not all...just most are lookign at Tesla auto and maybe solar) is that starlink has a 60 sat addition due in about 1/2 an hour. Assuming that goes well , it will be a 120 sat fleet, many more than competitors and fcc approval for over 10k. It could seriously re set the terrestrial broadband pricing schemes in the US.

My question is when the sat fleet will be big enough to be used, at least internally at SpaceX/Tesla.

 

[LJS22]

Tweet today from Morten Grove Morten Grove on Twitter

“Latest demand figures I have for the Netherlands is 20,000 unfulfilled Model 3 orders. It seem extremely high, but I was immediately corrected by a Dutch-handle here on Twitter when i stated "12,000". My bet is Netherlands is going to smash Norway+UK collective this Quarter.“

Explains the mad rush of ships to Europe this quarter.

I’ve been patiently debating the “cratering demand “ for Tesla in Europe with a short seller who has been tracking eu-EVs.com daily registration data. A lot of these folks still don’t get that Tesla is the only major automaker that doesn’t have dealerships in every town and their European inventory is mostly floating in the ocean...

That’s great! We are talking about a vehicle getting this kind of turn out.
It would be funny if we could get the Model 3 added to one of those hottest Christmas list items.

 

[MFranc123]

So, surprisingly, @MFranc123 got something basically right.

I'm going to take this as a... partial victory, I guess.

 

[elasalle]

SP going Starlink ...

 

[MP3Mike]

My question is when the sat fleet will be big enough to be used, at least internally at SpaceX/Tesla.

Elon has already used it to post a tweet.

 

[madodel]

Tweet today from Morten Grove Morten Grove on Twitter

“Latest demand figures I have for the Netherlands is 20,000 unfulfilled Model 3 orders. It seem extremely high, but I was immediately corrected by a Dutch-handle here on Twitter when i stated "12,000". My bet is Netherlands is going to smash Norway+UK collective this Quarter.“

Explains the mad rush of ships to Europe this quarter.

I’ve been patiently debating the “cratering demand “ for Tesla in Europe with a short seller who has been tracking eu-EVs.com daily registration data. A lot of these folks still don’t get that Tesla is the only major automaker that doesn’t have dealerships in every town and their European inventory is mostly floating in the ocean...

Well then no US deliveries and banwuptcy then. TSLAQ and toilet room boy were right.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is it just me or do I find myself dumber and dumber the longer I read posts in this forum? Puts, calls, options, charts, deltas, max pain, bulls, bears, etc. etc.

I just bought the stock and hope I make some money to lower the cost of my Model Y purchase. Is that a bad thing? You guys and gals are WAY smarter than me! I fell like I am just along for the ride. LOL!

Dan

Exactly Dan! Max Pain suddenly doesn't mean anything? You had me going for the past quarter, and now it's stupid? I did a couple options last year, lost it all, no more.

Electronics is easier! Go figure...

 

[Tslynk67]

That’s my productivity gone for a while...

 

[MFranc123]

Oh, I hate that I missed liftoff this time :/

What a time we live in, being able to just tune in rockets going into space, sending satellites into orbit...

 

[SOULPEDL]

In 2018 in Israel

BMW sold 3312 cars
Mercedes sold 3599 cars
Porsche sold 224 cars
Total Market is 267,490

Israel has a population approximately the size of Switzerland with a GDP per capita similar to Belgium. Israel has a purchase tax on ICEv of 83% and on BEVs it is 8%. Israel should be a market that Tesla should be able to expand and grab ~15% market share.


Israel - Flash report, Sales volume, 2018 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

Perhaps this Israel interest is so they don't think Mobile Eye is the only game.