Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Hey guys! Can you believe it?


It's one week until Pickup Day!

 

[woodisgood]

Hey guys! Can you believe it?


It's one week until Pickup Day!

We don't even know what the heck they're going to call it! I really doubt "Cybertruck" will be an official name.

 

[VValleyEV]

New Hit pieces on Tesla GF1 as cautionary tale for GF3/GF4 and beyond:
USA Today, 2 days ago
The Verge and CNBC, today, built upon the USA Today piece
AZ Republic today (Flagstaff AZ was a contender for GF1)

Executive Summary
1. Claims of bad safety records at GF1 using anecdotes and counts of the number of 911 calls and OSHA visits
2. Claims this is due to rapid growth and expansion without taxes to support local services because of tax deferment deals
3. Concerns that new Tesla factories will create similar/worse problems. And AZ patting itself on the back for not hosting GF1.

Large doses of FUD here. Has someone have the data to compare GF1 safety to industry standards? Are local services in Reno/Sparks starved for revenue to respond to 911 calls?

 

[copyhacker]

All in good fun and praise on my part. Just like speculating that Karen is an AI. No one should share personal details on a public forum that will be public forever on the Internet. Even if you don't mind now, you may in the future.

Yeah, I actually meant to quote the person you quoted with the "FC is a collective" theory. No criticism meant.

 

[ZeApelido]

Guys, things are getting weird.

I just dreamed that Elon revealed the cyber truck, and then he trotted out some hybrid giraffe / teletubbie with cab on the head.

 

[UncaNed]

Hey guys! Can you believe it?

It's one week until Pickup Day!

Oh, boy.

How much y'reckon that'll make SP drop?

 

[Fact Checking]

What I don’t have insight into is 1) the number of in-house EU ZEVs FCA/PSA thinks they are going to sell (their current sales are minuscule), 2) the fraction of the penalty reduction FCA plans to pay Tesla in exchange for joining the pool. We can all play those games a posteriori when we know the penalty reduction value per ZEV.

For #1 I'd assume 200% of "minuscule" - unlikely to be more, as they'd probably have to significantly sell below production costs - it's cheaper to pay Tesla and wait for their own BEV platforms (2022 at the earliest IMO).

I.e. I think they'll only try to fill up the supercredits with their own production - will those supercredits be available in 2020 too?

#2 is easier IMHO, game theory tells us that Tesla gets at least 50% of the benefits - and I'd conservatively assume exactly 50%. FCA needs Tesla far more than Tesla needs FCA.

 

[woodisgood]

Guys, things are getting weird.

I just dreamed that Elon revealed the cyber truck, and then he trotted out some hybrid giraffe / teletubbie with cab on the head.

LOL. That's definitely weirder than my dream about a week ago, where the truck was revealed to be a shape-shifting vehicle. I then astutely asked Elon, "Does my reality shift based on the vehicle's form, or does the vehicle inhabit my reality?" END SCENE

 

[LN1_Casey]

We don't even know what the heck they're going to call it! I really doubt "Cybertruck" will be an official name.

I think we're going to name it Tesla Model "P." Then, later, we'll have our Tesla Model I, which is a Intercity people mover, and then Model C, for compact car.

So we'd get Tesla's S 3 X Y P I C.

 

[UncaNed]

Guys, things are getting weird.

I just dreamed that Elon revealed the cyber truck, and then he trotted out some hybrid giraffe / teletubbie with cab on the head.

Go back to bed. Now. And stay there for 8 days.

 

[Prunesquallor]

For #1 I'd assume 200% of "minuscule" - unlikely to be more, as they'd probably have to significantly sell below production costs - it's cheaper to pay Tesla and wait for their own BEV platforms (2022 at the earliest IMO).

I.e. I think they'll only try to fill up the supercredits with their own production - will those supercredits be available in 2020 too?

#2 is easier IMHO, game theory tells us that Tesla gets at least 50% of the benefits - and I'd conservatively assume exactly 50%. FCA needs Tesla far more than Tesla needs FCA.

The 2018 data shows FCA-Tesla at 1.9% BEV, PSA-Opel at 0.2% (obviously no Tesla contribution in 2018). Even doubled, minuscule.

edit: Well, 4% may be something to take into account. We can decrement the FCA fleet size by 4% and recompute the fleet average emissions, then lump their BEVs in with the pooled Teslas. You’re right, they'll move those to the top of the supercredits.

I need to research the "phase-in" 2020 rules.

 

[AlexS]

We don't even know what the heck they're going to call it! I really doubt "Cybertruck" will be an official name.

Yes we know, it is called Model P

 

[bhtooefr]

I think we're going to name it Tesla Model "P." Then, later, we'll have our Tesla Model I, which is a City people mover, and then Model C, for compact car.

So we'd get Tesla's S 3 X Y P I C.

Don't forget the R(oadster). Which would make it Tesla's S3XYPRIC?

(Meanwhile, looks like a fight over $345 right now.)

 

[hobbes]

Interesting find.

Is it known whether the WW2 war-effort had any use for this area?

Because in that case there is a much increased likelihood of finding live ordnance there, e.g. 250kg aerial bombs. Even today such bombs are regularly found during construction work, they are typically deemed to unstable to move, so they are destroyed in place, a process that typically puts the construction (of the factory foundation) on hold for some days.

One would hope that Tesla has negotiated this point with the authorities, that the reaction to the discovery of any such bombs will be prompt and not cause a prolonged standstill at the site.

Being from Germany myself I know the problem - but have the impression that it usually happens in large cities that were bombed during the final stages of the war. Unlikely that there would be many bombs left in a forest - the site is far enough outside of Berlin to be affected IMHO.

 

[woodisgood]

Yes we know, it is called Model P

Really? At the risk of propagating off-topic discussions (my specialty), what's the source for this? There was also that whole meme-fest that Elon went on about "B"...

 

[dww12]

New Hit pieces on Tesla GF1 as cautionary tale for GF3/GF4 and beyond:
USA Today, 2 days ago
The Verge and CNBC, today, built upon the USA Today piece
AZ Republic today (Flagstaff AZ was a contender for GF1)

Executive Summary
1. Claims of bad safety records at GF1 using anecdotes and counts of the number of 911 calls and OSHA visits
2. Claims this is due to rapid growth and expansion without taxes to support local services because of tax deferment deals
3. Concerns that new Tesla factories will create similar/worse problems. And AZ patting itself on the back for not hosting GF1.

Large doses of FUD here. Has someone have the data to compare GF1 safety to industry standards? Are local services in Reno/Sparks starved for revenue to respond to 911 calls?

You mean like Deep Water Horizon, or any BP refinery on the texas coast. I know I had a guy stay at my VRBO for burn treatment that was stuck at the top of a oil rig that caught on fire. He could not go outside during the day. Is that as bad a losing a finger at GF1? That is the worst they can come up with? Seems like the safest industrial place to work to me.

 

[AlexS]

17,400 Model 3's to be produced in China before years end.

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai obtains green light for mass production - Global Times

Ambitious aren't they ?

Only 3000 cars will be produces in China in 2019, as only 3k sets of glass are available from supplier and 0 will be delivered. All cars will be delivered in January.

 

[KarenRei]

Ha. I have viewed (and photographed) these batnadoes.

We don't get "batnadoes" here, but Mývatn in the north gets "midgenadoes"

Originally Spiegel's fund was around 2 million, probably his parent's retirement money. Later a hedge fund gave a few million to him to manage. That hedge fund manager talked about this on TV. That fund also shorts TSLA. I can't find the interview now. It doesn't matter, all of them will be burned. The more stubborn they are the better.

Hedge funds are such a great racket to be in. People invest in them expecting to lose their money most of the time. So it's really easy to get your terrible investment decisions excused.

I like the idea of a Quebec factory. I presume the rational would be access to Nickel and Lithium resources.

I fail to see it.

• There's (comparatively) little local demand, both for vehicles and for energy storage products.
• Canada has some (but not all) EV resources - some (like nickel) in abundance, while others (like lithium) only moderately good. But you can just as well build south of the border.
  • For comparison: Australia is a small vehicle market, but has huge potential energy demand, and has an abundance of all EV resources, and is in a more distinct location, vs. Canada which is right near Tesla's already extant US infrastructure). Australia is the world's largest lithium producer, has some of the world's richest nickel laterites, and has one of the world's largest graphite deposits about to go into production, with the specific intent of it being used for battery anodes.
• There's no particular trade advantages to being in Canada (unlike, say, building a new GF in India or whatnot). Tesla has been building new GFs in places that offer unique trade advantages, such as China and Europe. Even Australia is more trade-advantageous than Canada.
• Arguments about Quebec's hydro power being cheap are moot, since Tesla's design going forward is to power GFs predominantly from rooftop solar. You know, their money printer?
• The news reports suggesting a Canadian gigafactory came across as rather sketchy.

I could be wrong, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Guys, things are getting weird.

I just dreamed that Elon revealed the cyber truck, and then he trotted out some hybrid giraffe / teletubbie with cab on the head.

What, you mean Project Greenstar? How did you hear about it? It's not been made public yet.

 

[AlexS]

have you seen Audi's CyberPunk?

 

[avoigt]

nativewolf said: ↑
Might seem dramatic but I just want to emphasize that the german workers councils are not the UAW. No more so than Chrysler is Google. Just massively different animals. It's one reason why the german auto industry started looking abroad for manufacturing, going to poland, hungary, etc. The managers in the companies I consulted for tread on eggshells around the workers councils and they were german as they come.

The workers' councils are empowered by law. There's no room for Elon to decide he's not going to follow German rules. He must play the game as it's played in Germany.

Not sure if worker councils and unions did play any role for German Automakers to go abroad, actually I don't believe it did as other reasons have driven that decisions like logistics costs, tariffs a.o. but Elon negotiating with German Unions and worker councils will be fun to watch.

I expect some clash of culture.