Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Yes the odds of Tesla Semi production at Fremont seem extremely low. Tesla says Semi will be in production by late 2020. Hence a new location. Very likely at GF1 as it will be very hard to build anywhere else so quickly. I guess Lathrop is possible too.
Pickup is less clear, there is a higher chance this could be at a 5th location, but I would still on balance guess it will be made at GF1. It’s possible Tesla aim for Pickup to be in production within 18 months too. We should hear soon enough. So production at 5 locations within 18 months isn’t out of the question either.

the semi and a pickup rendering (on the screen behind the stage) were released together. is it possible, logistically, to have both semi and pickup at gf1?

that said, has anyone done analysis on the battery situation, with the most recent snippets of info that we have? (the catl thing in china, and the fact that gf4 is doing batteries).
am i to assume that gf4 batteries are most similar to gf1, less the panasonic partnership?

basically, i think it’d be helpful to gauge what the production capabilities are for “tesla owned” batteries

or someone please recalibrate my thinking.
thx

 

[HG Wells]

17,400 Model 3's to be produced in China before years end.

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai obtains green light for mass production - Global Times

Ambitious aren't they ?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm not sure.
My guess is that Tilburg today mainly exists to avoid importtax on model S & X. It's purpose will have to be redefined. I don't see it having a future merely as a final assembly line

Following contains a lot of IF's, not supported by facts :
Let's assume by the end of 2022, GF4 is up and running and is capable of producing battery cells/packs. It's likely the machines will be able to produce also S&X battery packs (S&X will have new designed battery packs. I do believe that model 3/Y/S/X battery packs will have more in common for ease of production in the future).

Why have the S&X final assembly lines 400 miles away? I think final assembly of S&X will move to Berlin. Maybe Fremont continues to deliver the required parts to Berlin to produce S&X, but I believe Tesla is working on a more "unified machine" (aka factory design) that is capable of producing S 3 X Y models in one place with the ultimate goal of: customer in Europe orders a Tesla and GF4 pops it out a day later.

That's a lot of additional movement. I'd only expect them to build there if they do a major update.

 

[AudubonB]

...can (I) learn where it is in Poland the automotive sector has been concentrated?

See this table Przemysł motoryzacyjny w Polsce – Wikipedia, wolna encyklopedia

Err...thanks, I think....

maybe I have to change the question to

“...can I learn Polish”?

 

[AlMc]

We've heard of GF4 and Elon
It's best just to leave them alone
As Investors we hold
through FUD with our gold
Wherever our Teslas are shown

Jerry, any big drop in SP over the next week is on you!

 

[AudubonB]

17,400 Model 3's to be produced in China before years end.

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai obtains green light for mass production - Global Times

Ambitious aren't they ?

In all seriousness, I hope this isn’t an example of a publication setting up their version of Tesla for a fall. That is crushingly irresponsible writing/headline-crafting/mathematics.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I’ll try to find time this weekend (remote consulting gig this week) to dust off the model and rerun with the new FCA emission numbers (worse) and the possible effects of the merger.

The only thing the model will tell us is FCA's 2020/21 through 2024 penalty reduction as a function of EU ZEVs in the pooled fleet (from what we saw earlier this year, the numbers were grim for FCA to eliminate all penalties). What I don’t have insight into is 1) the number of in-house EU ZEVs FCA/PSA thinks they are going to sell (their current sales are minuscule), 2) the fraction of the penalty reduction FCA plans to pay Tesla in exchange for joining the pool. We can all play those games a posteriori when we know the penalty reduction value per ZEV.

@generalenthu performed some similar calculations and pointed out some potential issues with my methodology (since corrected), so his input would be valued.

Also remember that in the EU you don't just look at ZEVs. It's fleet efficiency, not a ZEV credit target.
Plus there are some multipliers and fudge factors that help them.

So, watch out for a rash of new models with varying degrees of electrification that will all work to raise the fleet average efficiency and reduce credit purchases over time.

 

[PaulusdB]

No, next week's $700 PT is attributed to Tesla selling drivetrains/batteries/software to VW. And VW revealing that they've built a massive stake. Remember, VW was willing to help Tesla go private last year. They need tech. Why not sell batteries/motors, derisk the auto business since building and delivering 80M electric cars a year will be very hard for Tesla to do alone. I don't see how legacy automakers survive without Tesla's aid

Yes, here it was. In plain sight, but apparently invisible.

Why would he mention powertrains as a separate product, if those are only used as components for their own vehicles?
(Batteries can be produced for Tesla energy products as well.)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

17,400 Model 3's to be produced in China before years end.

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai obtains green light for mass production - Global Times

Ambitious aren't they ?

I'm afraid the article is wrong. The weekly output of 2,900 cars is almost certainly an interim goal for next year. They will build up to this level, it is virtually impossible to hit this number so soon, if only for the lack of battery packs (we know they shipped 7,000 of them to GF3 over the last few months). With six weeks left in the year they calculate 6 x 2,900 = 17.400 cars, which is just wishful thinking. And that's just the nice wording. They claim it was confirmed by an employee of Tesla's PR department, but that probably only applied to the weekly output goal.

 

[loco]

Err...thanks, I think....

Table shows

VW in Poznań and Września, western Poland, close to Berlin, producing Caddy, 185k/year
FCA in Bielsko-Biała, Silesia, producing Fiat 500, 273k/year
Opel in Gliwice, Silesia, producing Astra, 165k/year

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yes, here it was. In plain sight, but apparently invisible.
View attachment 476783
Why would he mention powertrains as a separate product, if those are only used as components for their own vehicles?
(Batteries can be produced for Tesla energy products as well.)

Because he's emphasizing that it's not just going to be tariff-dodging assembly like Tilburg.
The batteries and motor units are the most expensive components.

 

[mongo]

Yes, here it was. In plain sight, but apparently invisible.
View attachment 476783
Why would he mention powertrains as a separate product, if those are only used as components for their own vehicles?
(Batteries can be produced for Tesla energy products as well.)

GF1 currently builds batteries and powertrains for Fremont. Elon's statement could just indicate that all aspects will be produced on site. Like GF3.

 

[mongo]

I'm afraid the article is wrong. The weekly output of 2,900 cars is almost certainly an interim goal for next year. They will (gradually) build up to this level, it is virtually impossible to hit this number so soon, if only for the lack of battery packs (we know they shipped 7,000 of them to GF3 over the last few months). With six weeks left in the year they calculate 6 x 2,900 = 17.400 cars, which is just wishful thinking. And then I'm using nice words. They claim it was confirmed by an employee of Tesla's PR department, but that probably just applied to the weekly output goal.

By "this number" you mean 17,400, not 2,900 right? I mean the pack supply does not limit them from hitting 2,900 a week... It limits them from hitting 2,900 a week for multiple weeks.

(I am curious what the ramp will look like)

 

[Zaxxon]

17,400 Model 3's to be produced in China before years end.

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai obtains green light for mass production - Global Times

Ambitious aren't they ?

As others have said, there is absolutely zero chance of 17,300 vehicles coming out of Shanghai by 12/31/19.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I hope Tesla has maintained flexibility to add further OEMs to their emission pool at short notice (or saved European car sales to add to a different pool) .
By the end of 2020 Daimler are going to realise their EV sales are nowhere near enough to get them out of their huge EU emissions black hole.

Maybe Tesla should have built Giga Berlin first.

 

[ZachF]

Interesting post. I can't reply to all of that due to the shear volume, but let me point out something that is notable. The drag coefficient is mentioned as being significant. That is a pro and a con in Tesla cars. Why don't all cars have such low drag coefficients? It's not rocket science, they've designed cars and other objects with low drag coefficients before. Heck, that's even a factor in bullets! It is hard to get such low numbers in cars because it's a trade off. Such low numbers make the cars hard to get in and out of. I've gotten model S cars as loaners several times and I find them very hard to get in and out of. I test drove a model 3 and the same thing. There are times when I hit my head getting into the model X if I don't do it right. This is because the windshield is so raked back that it reduces the roof line over much of the door opening. I literally can't get into the model S without folding rather like a pretzel. Not only do I need to watch my head, but my shoulders because the width of the door opening at the top is a fraction of the width at the bottom.

So while the drag coefficient helps get better range and faster quarter mile times, it makes it harder to sell the cars to middle America. The question is which impacts sales more, the improved performance or the reduced convenience?

Teslas have lower drag coefficients primarily as a function of being an EV.

ICE automobiles have higher drag because they need to radiate a much larger amount of heat. About 80% of the energy in the battery will make it to the wheels in an EV. In an ICE automobile, you're lucky to get 20% of the heat energy in gasoline to the wheels. Most of the energy in the gasoline goes out the tailpipe, or heats the engine block and transmission and needs to be radiated away.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Jerry, any big drop in SP over the next week is on you!

More cat avatars! Quick!

 

[RFernatt]

I think what was implied was that FactChecking is really more than one person. (I also thing it is a team of people.) If not, please FactChecking - would you mind sharing some (non-identifying) info about yourself - I am amazed and intrigued to know more!

FC is an early NeuraLink candidate running HiveMindOS v1.1 with a cadre of other specialists. Shhh, don't tell anyone!

 

[RFernatt]

More cat avatars! Quick!

Two cats in my avatar. That's gotta count for double, right?

 

[ZachF]

I was thinking the same thing about that comment he made. I couldn't quite figure out how to articulate my thoughts as well as you have.

It is amazing that he thinks Tesla is supposed to increase revenue daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly - hell, minutely to meet his requirement to be a growth company (at least for Tesla). When you're building and selling all the cars you are able to, the growth has to come through building more factories and more models - both of which Tesla is doing at break-neck speed. Will it always happen daily, weekly, or quarterly? NO!!

(NOTE: This next part actually AMAZED me after I typed it because I didn't know how accurate Elon's prediction on this truly was - I thought it was just "close")
The growth of the company reminds me of when Elon said the range of Tesla cars would increase by about 5% per year. Then around the end of 2016, the 100D was introduced and the range increased to 335 miles. Then there was a lull for a couple of years. I remember thinking in 2018 and 2019, where's the 5% per year? Tesla better get on the ball. Then of course in 2019, we've had 2 range increases. Now watch this and be amazed.

Here is the yearly range from 2012 for the Model S given Musk's prediction of a 5% average yearly range increase.

2012 - 265
2013 - 278
2014 - 292
2015 - 306
2016 - 322
2017 - 338
2018 - 355
2019 - 373

Now, go to Tesla's website and look at the current range estimate for the Model S (I'll give you a hint if you don't already know or don't feel like looking - it's a number between 372 and 374 ).

The maximum plaid S will have a larger battery, so next year you could see 400+ miles.