Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Porsche Taycan Turbo S gets 282-mile range rating from California Air Resource Board

CARB gives the Taycan Turbo S a 281,8mi range. They gave the Model 3 AWD a 455,3mi range, vs. its EPA range of 322mi. If the same ratio between CARB and EPA holds, the Turbo S will have an EPA range of 199,3mi.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Porsche Taycan Turbo S gets 282-mile range rating from California Air Resource Board

CARB gives the Taycan Turbo S a 281,8mi range. They gave the Model 3 AWD a 455,3mi range, vs. its EPA range of 322mi. If the same ratio between CARB and EPA holds, the Turbo S will have an EPA range of 199,3mi.

Wow, that's pretty bad since they had the 'Estimated' range of 279/253 EPA, and have a 93KW battery. I mean, for Ford's sake, the Tesla Model S 60 has a current rated 210 EPA.

 

[bhtooefr]

Worth noting that UDDS is a lower-speed urban test cycle, so it doesn't test aerodynamics much, but it does heavily test rolling drag (whether it's caused by weight, bearing drag, brake drag, motor drag, tire rolling resistance, or even things like suspension settings inducing extra tire drag) as well as electrical and drivetrain efficiency (the efficiency of deploying and regenning power, as well as just steady-state loads) of an EV.

Extrapolating purely from UDDS to EPA range won't cover the effects of aerodynamics significantly, and therefore will be inaccurate when an aerodynamic but otherwise inefficient car gets a poor UDDS score (EPA will be better than expected), or an unaerodynamic but otherwise efficient car gets a good UDDS score (EPA will be worse than expected).

Although with a UDDS score that bad, I'm not expecting good results from EPA. And, it does extrapolate decently well to EPA city ratings, just not combined/highway. For comparison with another VAG EV, the e-tron 55 quattro gets 277.55 miles. I would expect the Taycans to get a similar EPA city range to that vehicle, but better EPA combined due to better aerodynamics.

 

[Krugerrand]

True story?

(The credit card part, not the headshot part.)

Pretty much, yes. I never got through to place my MY order on the night of the reveal. And it still took three attempts the following day before the order went through. No, there wasn’t anything wrong with my credit card, or my WiFi. Just a crap ton of website activity.

I think we should have been able to pre-pre-order CYBRTRK.

 

[KarenRei]

Worth noting that UDDS is a lower-speed urban test cycle, so it doesn't test aerodynamics much, but it does heavily test rolling drag (whether it's caused by weight, bearing drag, brake drag, motor drag, tire rolling resistance, or even things like suspension settings inducing extra tire drag) as well as electrical and drivetrain efficiency (the efficiency of deploying and regenning power, as well as just steady-state loads) of an EV.

Extrapolating purely from UDDS to EPA range won't cover the effects of aerodynamics significantly, and therefore will be inaccurate when an aerodynamic but otherwise inefficient car gets a poor UDDS score (EPA will be better than expected), or an unaerodynamic but otherwise efficient car gets a good UDDS score (EPA will be worse than expected).

Although with a UDDS score that bad, I'm not expecting good results from EPA. And, it does extrapolate decently well to EPA city ratings, just not combined/highway. For comparison with another VAG EV, the e-tron 55 quattro gets 277.55 miles. I would expect the Taycans to get a similar EPA city range to that vehicle, but better EPA combined due to better aerodynamics.

The E-Tron's UDDS/EPA ratio would imply 207,1mi for the Taycan Turbo S.

Basically, it should be "somewhere around 200 miles", unless something very unusual is going on.

 

[bhtooefr]

Yeah, it'll be low 200s, not mid 200s.

In 2019, that's a joke.

 

[Krugerrand]

Some tidbits in here...most notably the promise of building permits in 4 weeks instead of 11 months:

Tesla’s Winding Road to Berlin

Don’t be silly. German bureaucracy would never allow for fast tracking of a factory build. Fake news.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Pretty much, yes. I never got through to place my MY order on the night of the reveal. And it still took three attempts the following day before the order went through. No, there wasn’t anything wrong with my credit card, or my WiFi. Just a crap ton of website activity.

I think we should have been able to pre-pre-order CYBRTRK.

It would be a unique way to filter out the en-mass applications. Being able to place an order sight unseen, and then the people who wait until they see it to place theirs.

It'd help with any future reveal too, though I don't know if there is any other vehicle in the direct pipeline yet.

 

[elasalle]

And a Catchy song too go with it!

I think FSD will not be in play for the reveal. The last known communication said we're hoping to be on track for EOY for giving it to early access people, which I'm thinking are beta testers, not all early adopters with "advanced" software update setting. Considering how smart summon went, which was postponed a whole bunch of times and probably not a lot of people are using it confidently now (one sign is 500k uses were recorded in a week when everyone tried it, but then only 800k total like a month later - going by memory on the latter), I think Tesla will not make a leap of faith on it and will prefer to sandbag it, so it will not be passed on to everyone until prob. a quarter later after EOY.

As far as 7k jumping to 8-9k later, I still seriously dislike this concept. I think EM is trying to force everyone to send their cars to TN, when it should be say, $6k for personal use and $20-40k if you want to use FSD in conjunction with TN. A very easy distinction to make. Why penalize people and make them risk their safety by not buying the expensive FSD if they don't want to share their vehicle? If he's afraid of people Uber'ing FSD without Tesla network, well, ok, how much they value their time at? $40k/year? Can they do it without FSD? Yes, they can. They don't gain a whole lot from using FSD. They will have to compete with driverless Teslas that operate on a similar income scale and this income will go down every year as a number of robotaxis increase. IDK. Why not make private/commercial a separate pricing? The only reason I see is forcing people into providing the supply of cars early on.



Like you don't know. Doubt. Uncertainty.
Tesla revealed an unconventional truck that is unlikely to resonate with conventional consumers. Who is this truck for? Weirdos? Why does Tesla not release reservation numbers? Are they afraid for the market to see that there is no demand? That the hopes of Elon Musk that consumers share his sci-fi vision are utterly destroyed when faced the reality of hard working farmers needing a day-to-day honest truck that only Ford can provide?

Urban Cowboys ?

 

[Fact Checking]

So why is You-Know-What rising in the premarket, while macros are red and China trade uncertainty is growing?

 

[Unpilot]

So why is You-Know-What rising in the premarket, while macros are red and China trade uncertainty is growing?

I'm only showing you-know-what up .08

Just looked again...mmm me like.

 

[HG Wells]

So why is You-Know-What rising in the premarket, while macros are red and China trade uncertainty is growing?

Shorts buying up shares to dump at the opening ?

 

[Todd Burch]

Porsche Taycan Turbo S gets 282-mile range rating from California Air Resource Board

CARB gives the Taycan Turbo S a 281,8mi range. They gave the Model 3 AWD a 455,3mi range, vs. its EPA range of 322mi. If the same ratio between CARB and EPA holds, the Turbo S will have an EPA range of 199,3mi.

Ouch.

 

[Mkorpal]

So why is You-Know-What rising in the premarket, while macros are red and China trade uncertainty is growing?

I feel it’s been green premarket for the past two weeks.

 

[HG Wells]

I sold some of my Jan 20 360 calls and bought the same number of friday calls at 360.

Plan on buying longer term 360's in a few days if it goes down.

Not advice. I tend to lose money.

 

[elasalle]

So why is You-Know-What rising in the premarket, while macros are red and China trade uncertainty is growing?

China invited US negotiators to Beijing for another round of trade talks, report says
All Green ..

 

[KarenRei]

I sold some of my Jan 20 360 calls and bought the same number of friday calls at 360.

Plan on buying longer term 360's in a few days if it goes down.

Not advice. I tend to lose money.

I'm doing the opposite - moving June call spreads out to September. Not that I'm pessimistic about the launch (I think it's going to be spectacular) - just that I expect, after profit taking and re-shorting, that at least for a period, the reduction in IV will offset gains on shorter-term calls. IV is just so high right now.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'll say it will be closer to 20k.

Since Ford has already said the sales will be limited to 50k per year due to battery supply, and that they haven't even started testing this car yet, I think the car will hit the dealer's lots around April 2021, and Ford will want to roll these things out somewhat slowly so that the obviously necessary recall won't be nearly as damaging - on the wallet, and in the media. So, 2021 will really be like 2017 for the Model 3.

And a lot of this depends on actual EPA range. If they are off on range by 10% (negatively), and the car's range winds up in the 205 / 270 (standard / extended) area, they won't sell over 20,000 in ANY year. Remember that the range they are quoting has a footnote that the estimated range is based on computer calculations. And so far, only Tesla's range guesstimates have turned out to be accurate. Every other manufacturer's guesstimate has been 20-30% high (so they either have bad engineers, or they lie). I don't think Ford's estimate is accurate either. I'm will to be when Bill Ford walked off the stage after the Mach E reveal, his first words were to those responsible for this car - "NOW GO FIGURE OUT HOW TO ACTUALLY MAKE THIS CAR HAPPEN!!!"

 

[T@oo]

Don’t be silly. German bureaucracy would never allow for fast tracking of a factory build. Fake news.

First time I can‘t tell if you‘re beeing sarcastic or not.

 

[KarenRei]

First time I can‘t tell if you‘re beeing sarcastic or not.