Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

And a Catchy song too go with it!

All the Detroit brands have special edition pickup exclusively for Texas.

The Tesla version should be called the "Canyonero."

Seriously, someone that Musk follows should tweet him.

Elon would find this very funny.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I tweeted Elon on the Canyonero thing. I’ve never been much of a Simpsons fan, but even I think that is hilarious!

He doesn’t follow a nobody like me, but I tagged him so hopefully he’ll get it.

 

[RobStark]

Say they did that... so what? I mean, where's the proof? All the audience will see is a car driving up and then Tesla saying it has gone coast to coast autonomously.

I do think it moderately likely that FSD will get an announcement, I'm just having a hard time seeing how it would be more impactful than him just tweeting it.

With autonomy day they provided participants with an autonomous ride on the public roads. But you can't do that on a stage.

Maybe if the car was in-progress and they put up a live feed?

How about taking off from New York with a live feed and everybody can see the progress over ~48 hrs?

 

[RobStark]

I'm just pointing out to those who think it's a competitive threat to Tesla just how far in the future it really is. By the time your average person can get their hands on the initial production (over a year away), Tesla will have advanced leaps and bounds.

Here's a more radical prediction:

Ford will only deliver less than 20,000 Mach-e's worldwide in the entire year following their planned 2020 launch. I would love to see them be more successful but it just doesn't seem like they are taking this very seriously or will be able to hit the targeted range they recently announced.

I predict Ford will sell 40k plus Mach E in 2021.

Some people that would have purchased a Model Y will purchase the Mach E instead.

And Model Y will still be production constrained. Either by cell production or the manufacturing line.

I further predict the demand for BEVs will grow faster than the production of BEVs.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does the above sentence count?

I don’t even know how to respond. Partly because I’ve already shot myself in the head and partly because I’m preoccupied with upgrading every electronic I own in hopes that just one of them gets me through to order a CYBRTRK tomorrow night on the first try. I really don’t want to repeat the 43 failed credit card attempts that occurred for my MY order.

 

[Artful Dodger]

VA is certainly still a super bull and ultra long investor which is one part the two of us share.

Yeah, Value Analyst layed down the smack with a kick-azz SA article yesterday (full-bull run too). No link to SA; + don't read the comments within 1 hr after eating.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

How about taking off from New York with a live feed and everybody can see the progress over ~48 hrs?

There will be inevitable gaps in live video coverage of a moving car - which will just fuel "they are hiding FSD disengagements!!" conspiracy theories.

Live coverage would also expose the exact location of the car, which TSLAQ crazies could use for sabotage or publicity stunts.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don’t even know how to respond. Partly because I’ve already shot myself in the head and partly because I’m preoccupied with upgrading every electronic I own in hopes that just one of them gets me through to order a CYBRTRK tomorrow night on the first try. I really don’t want to repeat the 43 failed credit card attempts that occurred for my MY order.

True story?

(The credit card part, not the headshot part.)

 

[M3Rider]

Say they did that... so what? I mean, where's the proof? All the audience will see is a car driving up and then Tesla saying it has gone coast to coast autonomously.

I do think it moderately likely that FSD will get an announcement, I'm just having a hard time seeing how it would be more impactful than him just tweeting it.

With autonomy day they provided participants with an autonomous ride on the public roads. But you can't do that on a stage.

Maybe if the car was in-progress and they put up a live feed?

I think if they were show continuous video feed of FSD working from multiple cars(can be recorded footage, just has to be continuous and not edited) and then said "This will be releasing in 2 weeks for beta testers", then sh*t gets real in terms of FSD coming, both from a usability standpoint and also the revenue that it will bring it. I think there could a lot of anticipation of FSD attachment skyrocketing if Elon then said, add FSD to your existing car or your purchase/order to lock in the 7k price because it will jump to 8-9k when FSD feature complete starts rolling out to all FSD Tesla's.

I think FSD will not be in play for the reveal. The last known communication said we're hoping to be on track for EOY for giving it to early access people, which I'm thinking are beta testers, not all early adopters with "advanced" software update setting. Considering how smart summon went, which was postponed a whole bunch of times and probably not a lot of people are using it confidently now (one sign is 500k uses were recorded in a week when everyone tried it, but then only 800k total like a month later - going by memory on the latter), I think Tesla will not make a leap of faith on it and will prefer to sandbag it, so it will not be passed on to everyone until prob. a quarter later after EOY.

As far as 7k jumping to 8-9k later, I still seriously dislike this concept. I think EM is trying to force everyone to send their cars to TN, when it should be say, $6k for personal use and $20-40k if you want to use FSD in conjunction with TN. A very easy distinction to make. Why penalize people and make them risk their safety by not buying the expensive FSD if they don't want to share their vehicle? If he's afraid of people Uber'ing FSD without Tesla network, well, ok, how much they value their time at? $40k/year? Can they do it without FSD? Yes, they can. They don't gain a whole lot from using FSD. They will have to compete with driverless Teslas that operate on a similar income scale and this income will go down every year as a number of robotaxis increase. IDK. Why not make private/commercial a separate pricing? The only reason I see is forcing people into providing the supply of cars early on.

CNBC has always been interested in news about the pickup, since US auto manufacturers make a fat profit and are surviving on pickup sales (for tesla of course it is sales, shipping, delivery, receipt). Will be interesting to see what headlines CNBC will have thursday morning...

Like you don't know. Doubt. Uncertainty.
Tesla revealed an unconventional truck that is unlikely to resonate with conventional consumers. Who is this truck for? Weirdos? Why does Tesla not release reservation numbers? Are they afraid for the market to see that there is no demand? That the hopes of Elon Musk that consumers share his sci-fi vision are utterly destroyed when faced the reality of hard working farmers needing a day-to-day honest truck that only Ford can provide?

 

[defc0n]

I predict Ford will sell 40k plus Mach E in 2021.

Some people that would have purchased a Model Y will purchase the Mach E instead.

And Model Y will still be production constrained. Either by cell production or the manufacturing line.

I further predict the demand for BEVs will grow faster than the production of BEVs.

As someone that will be in that market late next year or early 2021 I just can't justify the Mach E. I don't trust their battery tech yet--namely the degradation I fear it will have. And Tesla supercharging is sure to be much better than their offering.

I'll say it will be closer to 20k.

 

[Fact Checking]

OMG! I’ll never see a SP of $700 at this rate because I’m going to shoot myself if I hear Tesla and Apple in the same sentence one more time.

Does the above sentence count?

@Krugerrand is probably still safe, unless he uses text-to-speech.

 

[woodisgood]

Some tidbits in here...most notably the promise of building permits in 4 weeks instead of 11 months:

Tesla’s Winding Road to Berlin

 

[M3Rider]

Some say he's Chanos's mouthpiece. I have no idea.
Charley Grant on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm thinking Q1 gets that hit mentioned because of retooling for Y. Maybe a bit of demand lull from ended incentives Q1, but not much.

I don't think there is going to be as much new tooling purchased as expected. With the move to the new rear subframe casting setup, Tesla is replacing 70 stamped parts with 2 stampings and 2 die castings. This will happen for Model 3/Y simultaneously, so that:

• numerous robots previously needed on the Model 3 line will become redundant
• those robots can be repurposed for use on the Model Y body line
  
• stamping resources used per vehicle produced will be decreased
• welding+labor requirements per vehicle will also be reduced

Further, I suspect large capital expenses will not hit the income statement until volume production begins, which could be in either Q2 or Q3 ('Summer' of 2020). If Telsa can produce 20K-odd Model Ys in the 1st quarter of production, then amortizing the CapEx should be a breeze compared to Model 3, which was 2x more in CapEx and took 4x longer to ramp production to breakeven.

Remember what Elon said in his interview with Tim Dodd on Sep 29:

“I have this mantra called 'if a schedule's long, it's wrong, if it's tight, it's right'​

Its like Tesla is gettin' good at this 'Manufacturing buildout' thing.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Plus alot of apple iphone users are waiting for ford to come out with the Phone-E

Hah, that's nothing! The Cardassians are waiting for Ford to produce the Maquis... (that's pronounced mah-KEE for those of you that don't speak Trekkie)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any Model Y talk (coming sooner etc) could only hurt 3 sales in the seasonally slow Q1.

... unless Tesla announces that Model 3 is sold out through Q2. With the FCA deal, the Eurozone will buy every single Model 3 made in Fremont @ 2x profit vs sale in the U.S.

Model Y will sell like gangbusters in US as soon as available. Makes sense to lean out US sales of 3 and collect those C02 credits to pay for GF4/Berlin even before it goes into production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The latest drone images (31st of October) show 27 Model 3's sitting outside (see e.g. 2:13 in the video).

There were about 50 Model 3's in Jason Yang's video dated Nov 12, 2019 (spread across 2 parking lots, including those parked at Supercharger stalls)

 

[X Fan]

Some say he's Chanos's mouthpiece. I have no idea.
Charley Grant on Twitter

As is it’s said in the States (baseball), @Lycanthrope throwing the “high heat” in the responses to @ Charley Grant.

btw: Porsche out with an email ad today touting the Taycan and a Porsche designer linkup with lucasfilm called The designer Alliance. They will “create an iconic starship design that appears right out of the Star Wars galaxy”.

How timely given Tesla’s announcements tonight.

 

[KarenRei]

As far as 7k jumping to 8-9k later, I still seriously dislike this concept. I think EM is trying to force everyone to send their cars to TN, when it should be say, $6k for personal use and $20-40k if you want to use FSD in conjunction with TN.

I spent over a minute trying to parse these sentences, my mind boggled as to why Tesla would insist on people sending their cars to Tennessee. Nearly started googling to see if Tennessee had some sort of strong pro-FSD regulations on the books

 

[Lessmog]

I spent over a minute trying to parse these sentences, my mind boggled as to why Tesla would insist on people sending their cars to Tennessee. Nearly started googling to see if Tennessee had some sort of strong pro-FSD regulations on the books

Aw carp, you just stole my thunder! I was about to make the same joke.
And I hear you can't even buy the local licquor in some counties.

Well, I must have overslept.