Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

It's an ongoing phenomenon that the auto show circuit is altogether losing its luster.

Auto shows served two purposes: get cars in front of journalists to write stories about them, and get cars in front of potential customers so they can see a bunch of different cars together.

However, Apple (in the consumer electronics space) has proven that you can get journalists to come to your event, instead of you coming to the journalists' event, if your product launch is noteworthy enough. And, then, because it's your event, you control the news cycle in the aftermath of your event, getting as much as a week of coverage, instead of the mere article or two a show participant gets. Tesla's copied that model for the automotive space, and then other automakers are slowly copying it themselves now.

Getting cars in front of potential customers is another story, and that still has value. However, that doesn't need a huge manufacturer booth - a lower-cost display done by the local dealers can do that.


European regulators and lawmakers care a lot more than, say, American regulators and lawmakers about vulnerable road user safety. So, this means that a higher standard (or really, a standard at all) of protection for vulnerable road users is demanded, and when injuries occur, awards for the victim are both more likely and higher (in contrast to American practice of victim-blaming the vulnerable road user, sometimes even to the point of fining them for something that's the motorist's fault).

This means that the pedestrian safety features are to an extent mandated, and going beyond the minimum reduces liability insurance rates (due to a lower risk of paying out, and a lower payout, for the insurer).

The Internet.
Who wanna pay $10-$15 to visit an auto show anymore ....
... even Victoria Secret fashion shows & Playboy magazine have lost their luster

 

[FreqFlyer]

The Internet.
Who wanna pay $10-$15 to visit an auto show anymore ....
... even Victoria Secret fashion shows & Playboy magazine have lost their luster

There is no better way to compare vehicles than at a car show. It one thing to see a picture, its another to actually sit in it and then walk across the aisle to a competing product.

 

[replicant]

So you want Tesla to save humankind from stupidity and itself — oh, wait.

How about this? Tesla is already going full throttle, has a full plate and then some. How about you trot on over to the FORD, GM, VW et al investors forums and tell them they ought to care more about EV adoption etc... and get them to tell those companies to get off their arses and do something more than the bureaucratic dance they so enjoy.

Yes, it irks me when TSLA investors think Tesla isn’t doing enough. Are you blind?

You're asking TSLA shareholders to ask Tesla competitors to help the company better manage the lines at the superchargers and/or better educate the public about EV charging? Should TSLA shareholders expect other manufacturers to make it easier for people unfamiliar with charging to better understand what's it's like to own a Tesla? Uh?

If you can't bear the "stupidity" of people who can and should switch to EV (because they are misinformed), then you're not helping. At all.

 

[JRP3]

While interesting, this defamation case is getting an awful lot of attention on the Tesla Investor Thread and I'm not fully clear why.

As I see it, it only really impacts the stock if a) any penalty is so large is requires Elon to sell some of his TSLA stock, b) the case is sufficiently damaging to Elon's personal reputation that he has to stand down from his position as CEO.

Neither of these are even tail-risk possibilities are they?

You have to know better than this. Any negative Elon news will be spun hard to maximize it's impact on the stock price. The trial is the most relevant piece of news right now for short term price movements.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wow, this guy's a downright stock market genius isn't he? LOL!

Dan

Must have taken ages to come with these ratings...

Edit - this cretin's previous "price target" was $191, which was a factor of 2 out, so I take this new Einsteinian prediction to really mean $444...

Please don't tell me the SP is dropping because of this nonsense? I rather think it's shorty & co desperately trying to stop $TSLA rising with the rest.

 

[Beltsbear]

The only thing that makes the defamation trial impactful to the share price is that we know the trial results will come out suddenly. This will move the price suddenly. But not very far, a few bucks at most, and the effect will be extremely short-lived because it doesn't affect Tesla's financials or their ability to sell cars to any significant degree. The effect will be larger if it is a clean win for Musk but only because TSLA is in an uptrend, a win can highlight that. A loss could make Musk look more vulnerable, less Godlike and more human, but it's not the type of thing that could ever hope to reverse the up-trend TSLA stock is in.

At this point, it's looking pretty good for a clean win. The complainants have a lot of dirt on their hands $$. But things like this are just noise in the bigger picture.

I don’t think it’s a clean win. I predict the other guy will win with a $1 judgement. It should not be material to the stock price in a perfect world but in the Biff Tannon timeline I think it will effect the stock price. The $1 judgement will help the stock price.

 

[KarenRei]

Gaming the odds for the Unsworth case:

Plaintiffs win 42% of slander / libel cases in the US:
Jury Psychology: Social Aspects of Trial Processes

Of those, the above link describes punitive damages in civil cases as "rare" and generally "modest". Another source says that in slander/libel cases, punitive damages are awarded 30% of the time:
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/press/CJCAVILC.PR

E.g. in 12,6% of total slander / libel cases.

As per the arguments filed in the case, Elon's side argues that a max 1:1 standard for punitive damages relative to compensatory damages is the overwhelming standard in such cases and if punitive damages are to be applied, they should not exceed this. Unsworth's side agrees with the premise, but argues that in extraordinary cases the ratio can be much higher, and argues that this case should be considered extraordinary.

I find no data on how common ratios higher than 1:1 are.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm now expecting Model Y production to start Q1 2020, some MIC Model 3s to ship and perhaps Tesla will earn a significant amount of EV credits in Q1 2019.

Plaid Model S to return to the ring in March/April and battery investor day soon after... And probably a few Semis, or Plaid Model S/X may ship before June 2020.

The numbers and the narrative should be much stronger than Q1/Q2 2019...

These are the kinds of things that take time to sink into investor's minds. They hear about them but they don't seem very real at first. It takes time for them to come to terms with things like this. Of course, we are coming into that time of the quarter that people will be thinking about quarterly numbers front and center.

Shorts should be afraid, longs have ahold of the reins.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm now expecting Model Y production to start Q1 2020, some MIC Model 3s to ship and perhaps Tesla will earn a significant amount of EV credits in Q1 2019.

Plaid Model S to return to the ring in March/April and battery investor day soon after... And probably a few Semis, or Plaid Model S/X may ship before June 2020.

The numbers and the narrative should be much stronger than Q1/Q2 2019...

Geez, you're optimistic about Semi. We were just told that they "might" have a "few" by the end of the year, and now we're shipping by June? Produced where, exactly?

 

[kbM3]

European regulators and lawmakers care a lot more than, say, American regulators and lawmakers about vulnerable road user safety. So, this means that a higher standard (or really, a standard at all) of protection for vulnerable road users is demanded, and when injuries occur, awards for the victim are both more likely and higher (in contrast to American practice of victim-blaming the vulnerable road user, sometimes even to the point of fining them for something that's the motorist's fault).

This means that the pedestrian safety features are to an extent mandated, and going beyond the minimum reduces liability insurance rates (due to a lower risk of paying out, and a lower payout, for the insurer).

But somehow they need to gate the pedestrian injury severity by the likelihood of it hitting the pedestrian in the 1st place. I.e. if active safety measures are 100% effective, it would be completely irrelevant even if the front of Teslas incorporated buzzsaws.

And actually the same is true for crashworthiness. They need something like a predicted overall probability of death or serious injury per million miles. E.g. if your active safety measures reduce accidents by a factor of 10, your vehicle is still safer overall, even if it scored the lowest of all vehicles on every other test.

 

[SunCatcher]

Cyber isn't "brought", Cyber goes where Cyber wants to go. Yesterday Cyber had people to protect, down in Mexico.

Umm, I'm thinking you may be right. Hopefully Cybrtrk hasn't come to us via The Matrix?

 

[Unpilot]

The short term movements of this stock is so funny.

NASDAQ goes down TSLA goes up.
NASDAQ goes up TSLA goes down

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Did anyone notice the news about Model Y production for Q1, and the parts ordered for the semi? Could be a potential boast if confirmed during Q4 CC in January.

Was there something that I missed? The only thing I saw was a analyst firm predicting Model Y deliveries in Q1 but there really was no basis or factual information behind that....it was just their guess. Was there other news about Semi?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The short term movements of this stock is so funny.

NASDAQ goes down TSLA goes up.
NASDAQ goes up TSLA goes down

At the risk of gloating too soon...…..my comments about what was going to happen both yesterday and so far today, are spot on. Macro's recovered half their losses while Tesla didn't recover nearly the same, percentage-wise. And then today, macro's are up and Tesla is down. For how crazy this stock is, the manipulation MO is to me, very easy to predict. It's actually pretty logical though. If you're a bear or short, why waste funds applying downwards pressure on a macro down day when there is likely large amount of buying resistance at 330. Capping the stock is much more effective. So they save their funds to a up macro day to apply selling pressure to cap any breakout.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I was honestly shocked at the number of manufacturers/models that beat Tesla in the pedestrian detection category. I can't even get the entire list in a snippet. But, after the list presented in the screenshot below, there is a Renault on the list before the Model 3 shows up. And even after that, before the Model X shows up, there is an Audi, a Peugeot, Skoda, Range Rover, and the Ford Focus.

In all, there are 10 manufacturers who were rated higher than Tesla in this crucial category - BMW, Toyota, Ford, VW, Mazda, Skoda, Subaru, SEAT, Mercedes, and Renault.

How could SO many manufacturers have a better pedestrian detection system, when the entire crutch of the AP system is that cameras do a better job of recognizing and distinguishing objects? I honestly expected Tesla to be at the 95% mark and everyone else to be at least 10 points behind. It's eye-opening to say the least. Running over a pedestrian 25% of the time in testing does NOT bode well for FSD to be ready in the next few years. I would think that number needs to be in the 99.999 range.

What am I missing here? I am thinking that another good test would be to test false positives - it's possible that since other manufacturers only need to protect pedestrians and do not have a assisted driving feature included in their models, it's possible that they have gone super aggressive on pedestrian recognition. I wonder if a dead animal in the road would cause the system to slam on brakes as well.

Safety Ratings Sorted on Pedestrian Crossing

View attachment 484566

For those who rated this post "Disagree", have you contacted the Euro NCAP organization to let them know you disagree with their test results?

 

[jerry33]

There is no better way to compare vehicles than at a car show. It one thing to see a picture, its another to actually sit in it and then walk across the aisle to a competing product.

That works when every car is mostly the same except for seats, cupholders, and upholstery. It doesn't work when the fundamentals are different.

 

[bhtooefr]

There is no better way to compare vehicles than at a car show. It one thing to see a picture, its another to actually sit in it and then walk across the aisle to a competing product.

That works when every car is mostly the same except for seats, cupholders, and upholstery. It doesn't work when the fundamentals are different.

It does give you an idea of whether the interior ergonomics - which are important - will work for you, so you can then get an idea of what to go test drive.

Also, honestly, the one auto show I attend annually - Detroit - I attend with a group of old TDI friends (...several of which now have Teslas), and it's as much a social experience at that point as anything else.

 

[ReflexFunds]

For those who rated this post "Disagree", have you contacted the Euro NCAP organization to let them know you disagree with their test results?

Have you blocked @KarenRei?
She explained to you in detail multiple times how the Euro NCAP results work and why you are wrong yet you keep going on.

Tesla achieved 97% for Pedestrian & Cyclist AEB.

The category you referred to is purely for impact pedestrian safety.

 

[carterm2]

 

[Unpilot]

Yep Tesla is surely doomed now!