Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

Boy I agree with you on the seat belts. Just a day ago we had a big crash on a slick highway south of town where the driver of an F150 that caused the accident and flipped the vehicle was killed... he was not wearing a seat belt. Another driver was seriously injured; they were not wearing a seat belt. The third driver was injured, but released from the hospital, probably because they were wearing their seat belts!

After being in a serious accident myself about 30 years ago, where I flipped and totalled my beloved 2002 and escaped injury even though I was not wearing my seat belt at the time (probably because the centrifugal force kept us seated), I promised myself and former spouse that I would always wear my seat belt from then on. It has saved me from injury in two other accidents (one my fault, the other not) and I don't regret it for a second. Matter of fact I feel far more secure being belted in than not, plus I'm not violating the law.

The amount of idiots that drive unbelted even today never ceases to amaze me.

LOL ppl are still driving unbelted? I don't get it. It's 2019. Do we still think it looks cooler? Or is there some other reason.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Marketwatch talking up the likelihood of the tax credit renewal passing.

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Still uncertain, of course.

Contrary to some misinformation circulating on Twitter, the new language only applies to sales made after the bill is enacted.

View attachment 488497

However, the extra 400k sales also doesn't start ticking up until

The bill also creates a new credit for used vehicles (e.g. will boost residual value):

... and heavy vehicles (e.g. Semi)

The value of this bill to Tesla, should it pass, really can't be overstated. It'd create billions of dollars of extra ASP for the company. I would say "sales", but they're already going to be maxed out on production regardless. Might justify sinking more money into "as quickly as possible" capacity expansions, though. The key for Tesla would be to come just short of 400k US sales in one quarter (say, Q4 '20 or Q1 '21), and then have tons of extra production capacity come online the quarter after that, to get as many sales in before the credits phase out.

But it has to actually pass, of course.

Maybe I’m a little dense. When you say “billions of dollars of extra ASP” are you saying that customers would opt for the high-end models (which we all assume have higher margins) because of the credit? So not only higher ASP but higher average margin, too?

 

[Causalien]

Maybe that’s because shorts place way too much emphasis on a single quarter’s profit/loss performance, so they were the biggest buyers after q3 results, just like last year.

But one would think all of the other q3 good news would have caused a lot of institutional buying as well?

In trading I tend to entertain the idea that correlation IS causation.

Even though it isn't true in real life. But we can probably say that ppl buying and selling for normal reasons cancels each other out and shorting by TSLAQ ended up being that 1 extra share that moved the needle as the outstanding shares shorted correlated directly with stock price.

 

[printf42]

Marketwatch talking up the likelihood of the tax credit renewal passing.

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Still uncertain, of course.

Contrary to some misinformation circulating on Twitter, the new language only applies to sales made after the bill is enacted.

View attachment 488497

However, the extra 400k sales also doesn't start ticking up until

The bill also creates a new credit for used vehicles (e.g. will boost residual value):

... and heavy vehicles (e.g. Semi)

The value of this bill to Tesla, should it pass, really can't be overstated. It'd create billions of dollars of extra ASP for the company. I would say "sales", but they're already going to be maxed out on production regardless. Might justify sinking more money into "as quickly as possible" capacity expansions, though. The key for Tesla would be to come just short of 400k US sales in one quarter (say, Q4 '20 or Q1 '21), and then have tons of extra production capacity come online the quarter after that, to get as many sales in before the credits phase out.

But it has to actually pass, of course.

Maybe this is why Q1 would be tough, if the bill only apply to new sales after it’s enacted, people would wait.
And if the bill just drags, this is a complete new level of FUD...

 

[mblakele]

Agreed. A gas tax doesn't really hurt those buying new cars, only those with low income.

Happily a carbon dividend would remedy that side-effect:

Economists' Statement | Climate Leadership Council

 

[NakedLong]

The Chinese government seems so strongly in favor of moving to EVs/taking on pollution challenges, and largely seem quite impressed with Elon (IIRC, pretty much offered him an open invite to make China his home). I’m wondering if all of the above might add up to some Tesla halo/desirability/prestige factor to consumers and their influential parents that gas luxury cars do not have (beyond the EV incentives Tesla is qualifying for).

I encountered the same idea in Germany where traditionalists think that driving a black or silver BMW or Benz is a sign of success. I used to joke about them being the Borg.

Anyway, I think the idea that this BBA effect can limit Tesla demand in China is totally wrong.

* The product is better
* EVs in general are superior tech
* Safety is better
* The price of the Model 3 is very low compared to what you get for BBA car
* Pollution is a big issue in China
* The Chinese government is pushing EVs and Tesla hard
* Younger people have influence on their parents to promote Tesla
* Many BBA parents and in-laws are going to be exposed to friends Tesla's and buy them based on the network effect, like what happened with all those test ride videos on Youtube.
* Tesla can easily become a point of pride/status as people find they can show off the car to their friends and family.
* BBA cars can quickly seem outdated in China - China will shift to EVs faster than most countries.

 

[kbM3]

I think a tax on new ICE vehicles is much better than increased fuel taxes.

Firstly because EV running costs are already far far lower than ICE, yet customers are still put off EVs by the higher upfront price because not everybody looks at TCO. So you make more difference here by a tax on the upfront costs.

Secondly, people already bought ICE cars counting on the huge government indirect fossil fuel subsidies (mostly via lower sales tax rates, uncharged healthcare costs, uncharged cost of deaths from air pollution and uncharged use of the remaining carbon budget). In reality few people know about the fossil fuel subsidies, but they do know the expected fuel costs and fuel tax rates when they bought their car. It is harder to take this away from people retroactively after they have already made a huge purchase decision and after it is already too late to buy an EV. Hence the huge protests in California, France and South America to lowering fuel subsidies. It is much fairer and more effective to put the tax on new ICE sales so customers from the beginning have the choice to buy EV rather than ICE.

The tax proceeds can then be used to support car purchases, or possibly government owned leasing fleets to support affordability of personal car ownership.

The problem with a tax on new ICE vehicles is that someone driving 50k miles / year is paying the same penalty as someone who drives 5k miles / year, even though they’re dumping 10X more carbon annually into the atmosphere. Maybe if you just taxed it on an assumed 200k mile lifetime (for example) of carbon emissions, that would work?

 

[JRP3]

It's like worrying about the best way to tax/fine the transition to cars from horse and buggy at the beginning of the 20th century. What would we do to help Henry Ford gain market share to get all of those pooping horses off our streets

Ah yes, that mythical free market. In reality the government subsidized petroleum exploration and development and paid for roads and infrastructure which allowed cars to be practical.

 

[defc0n]

Marketwatch talking up the likelihood of the tax credit renewal passing.

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Still uncertain, of course.

Contrary to some misinformation circulating on Twitter, the new language only applies to sales made after the bill is enacted.

View attachment 488497

However, the extra 400k sales also doesn't start ticking up until

The bill also creates a new credit for used vehicles (e.g. will boost residual value):

... and heavy vehicles (e.g. Semi)

The value of this bill to Tesla, should it pass, really can't be overstated. It'd create billions of dollars of extra ASP for the company. I would say "sales", but they're already going to be maxed out on production regardless. Might justify sinking more money into "as quickly as possible" capacity expansions, though. The key for Tesla would be to come just short of 400k US sales in one quarter (say, Q4 '20 or Q1 '21), and then have tons of extra production capacity come online the quarter after that, to get as many sales in before the credits phase out.

But it has to actually pass, of course.

not to be a negative Nancy but I didn’t really see any chance of this making it past both the senate and trump ?

 

[StealthP3D]

Still Sunday, I know, but barring some kind of apocalypse, look at all those puts that will be flushed down the pan, worthless, this coming Friday

Edit - where's the graphic go? Pfff!

View attachment 488501

Did you generate that graphic or find it pre-generated? The reason I ask is it's cut-off before it can display the spike of calls with $690 strikes.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'll say it again this week....it's gonna be a good week for Tesla.

Just watch.

Where is the "Agree" button?

 

[JRP3]

Raising the game, Model X vs F250 Cybertruck Nuts® on Twitter

 

[avoigt]

Announcement

An exciting chapter of my live unexpectedly started here at TMC when Zach from CleanTechnica approached me if I would be interested to write an article in summer 2018.

The tremendous support from people in the community be it at TMC, at CT or Twitter made my work take more and more time from my life until I decided to make a change and dedicate my time fully to support the mission.

Having been approach from about 3 large Auto companies for advice in different areas and supporter by a growing network and community I decided to quit my job and focus on bringing more valuable content to my readers at CleanTechnica, Elektroauto-news (German) and since today on Patreon.com

I want to thank everybody here at TMC, which is a treasure box of knowledge and people much smarter than me, that help and share great knowledge and challenge themselves to find the truth in a confusing world.

Whoever wants to read articles from me earlier than anybody or specific analytics including investment about Tesla & Germany can get it at Patreon.com.

Later today I will release my newest article inspired by an interview Everyday Astronaut did with Elon a while ago discussion the advantage Tesla has in R&D versus all other automakers. Its called "Everybody is a Chief Engineer"

A topic I discussed with a Manager of Porsche this week.

Thanks to all of you!

Alex Voigt is creating Articles, Analytics, Insights, Conclusions - Tesla & More | Patreon

Alex on Twitter

 

[Compton]

LOL ppl are still driving unbelted? I don't get it. It's 2019. Do we still think it looks cooler? Or is there some other reason.

 

[defc0n]

Announcement

An exciting chapter of my live unexpectedly started here at TMC when Zach from CleanTechnica approached me if I would be interested to write an article in summer 2018.

The tremendous support from people in the community be it at TMC, at CT or Twitter made my work take more and more time from my life until I decided to make a change and dedicate my time fully to support the mission.

Having been approach from about 3 large Auto companies for advice in different areas and supporter by a growing network and community I decided to quit my job and focus on bringing more valuable content to my readers at CleanTechnica, Elektroauto-news (German) and since today on Patreon.com

I want to thank everybody here at TMC, which is a treasure box of knowledge and people much smarter than me, that help and share great knowledge and challenge themselves to find the truth in a confusing world.

Whoever wants to read articles from me earlier than anybody or specific analytics including investment about Tesla & Germany can get it at Patreon.com.

Later today I will release my newest article inspired by an interview Everyday Astronaut did with Elon a while ago discussion the advantage Tesla has in R&D versus all other automakers. Its called "Everybody is a Chief Engineer"

A topic I discussed with a Manager of Porsche this week.

Thanks to all of you!

Alex Voigt is creating Articles, Analytics, Insights, Conclusions - Tesla & More | Patreon

Alex on Twitter

congrats Alex and glad you have found your correct place in life

 

[mspohr]

1) Tesla does not own those, so that does not fulfill the generation aspect.
2)They rely on the existing grid, so it does not fulfill the distribution aspect.

I.e. that system still relies on the existing utility company and is therefore not an example of Tesla becoming a utility. It is an example of Tesla becoming a supplier to a utility company.

Tesla does own the solar systems that they rent. Tesla sells the electricity to the homeowner.

 

[JRP3]

The 10 Best Gadgets of the 2010s

Think cars can’t be gadgets? Then you haven’t driven a Tesla Model S — or watched one drive up to you. The electric sedan has slowly reshaped the trajectory of the automotive industry, forcing competitors to embrace a battery-powered future instead of the gas-guzzling present, and challenging the belief that electric cars can’t be cool.

 

[mspohr]

The problem with a tax on new ICE vehicles is that someone driving 50k miles / year is paying the same penalty as someone who drives 5k miles / year, even though they’re dumping 10X more carbon annually into the atmosphere. Maybe if you just taxed it on an assumed 200k mile lifetime (for example) of carbon emissions, that would work?

It will have a certain number of miles and carbon pollution eventually even if the current owner doesn't drive much. It's a pollution infrastructure investment which needs to be discouraged.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla does own the solar systems that they rent. Tesla sells the electricity to the homeowner.

Don't they also own the systems on a couple islands and sell the electricity to the model power company?

 

[Causalien]

Still Sunday, I know, but barring some kind of apocalypse, look at all those puts that will be flushed down the pan, worthless, this coming Friday

Edit - where's the graphic go? Pfff!

View attachment 488501

Looks like either a very nice butterfly or iron condor. Based around $300.

Whoever it is made mucho money and probably the reason why stock is capped at $360.