Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

That kind of spin will garner about as much traction as a '69 Impala on wet glaze ice.

Nobody is taking the spin doctors seriously anymore. And why would they? Their previous spin has caused a lot of potential investors to miss out on a lot of profit! When you cry wolf too many times, people stop listening.

If you...want to short some TSLA
Just go ahead now
And if you...like to spread your FUD FUD
Just go ahead now
If you...want to burn for hours
Just go ahead now
And if you...like to cry for Vernon
Just go ahead now

 

[avoigt]

Shares shorted increased yesterday

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[Singuy]

Okay thanks to Tsla and AMD being on fire lately, I have just hit the max limit I am being projected by SIPC in Robinhood. What do you guys usually do in this situation?

 

[Rooster6655]

Premium Connectivity will be recognized until Q1 but during the earnings call they will almost certainly disclose what percentage of owners subscribed to their $9.99/mo package. This is a growing recurring revenue stream.

Yes but I don't see this as being a profit centre for them, probably barely cover the costs!

In the UK the tradition is not to buy cars in Q4 or Q1, so it's usually a good time to get a decent discount and fancy offers.

Not heard of that before, perhaps its just in your household.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Shares shorted increased yesterday

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

I don't always think Ihor is right with his prediction but oh man would it be sweet if shorts were increasing their positions because that would mean a good majority of the buying is form actual investors on the buy side who are more than likely buying for the long term.

 

[Singuy]

Shares shorted increased yesterday

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Well lets not forget current SP for shorts is the equivalent of our summer dip for longs. A short seller should be shorting at these price levels vs when it was under 200. Those people were just idiotic.

 

[JustMe]

Shares shorted increased yesterday

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Every gambler knows you have to double down on a sure thing to make back your losses!

 

[woodisgood]

I looked around briefly, but what kind of margins are folks expecting for Semi?

 

[Nocturnal]

The spin will be "these numbers are a result of having to charge for software that was previously free in order to mask demand problems and shrinking margins."

That is already the spin on the 2k speed upgrade. They are completely nuts. "Popular product has option to upgrade, customers like it."
Oh, that's bad for that company!

Yes but I don't see this as being a profit centre for them, probably barely cover the costs!



Not heard of that before, perhaps its just in your household.

Maybe not, but worst case if you offset a cost that improves whatever line item was currently being used to pay for that connectivity. ​

 

[ggr]

This was an exciting time. But the top was on January 3, 2000, not Christmas Eve. Many people on the QCOM forum had sold back in March thinking the price was too good to be true. They left millions on the table.

QCOM chart end of the 1999 bull run:
View attachment 490126
You will notice that people that held through Christmas had plenty of time to sell before it dropped below the level before Christmas. The last trading day before Christmas was 12/23 and is represented by the dip three days before it gapped up.

Thanks for correcting my flaky memory. But my point about many of the serious traders being away remains true. Note too that QCOM has never regained that nearly-20-years-ago high. Moral: remember to cash in on the short squeeze! It doesn't mean that the investment won't still be good for buy and hold... just that the squeeze won't last forever. Personally I still don't think this is true squeeze yet.

 

[wipster]

...but I owned a 996,
and earlier a 525,
so we should pass 525 rapidly although I'll wait a while for 993, just as I did to receive the original.

Well I owned a 2002 Bimmer, so that's what I'm holding on for.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well lets not forget current SP for shorts is the equivalent of our summer dip for longs. A short seller should be shorting at these price levels vs when it was under 200. Those people were just idiotic.

Definitely would be smarter than shorting at the bottom.

But if I was a short right now, I would not dare shorting anymore until Q4 prod/delivery numbers. If there is a surprise, it could get be really damaging for them. The risk/reward is just crazy high on the risk side to be shorting more right now.

 

[Singuy]

Definitely would be smarter than shorting at the bottom.

But if I was a short right now, I would not dare shorting anymore until Q4 prod/delivery numbers. If there is a surprise, it could get be really damaging for them. The risk/reward is just crazy high on the risk side to be shorting more right now.

Considering your losses are infinite and your gains are at most 100% of your money, just the act of shorting has a mathematical crazy risk built in. A lot of conviction is needed, way more than bulls.

 

[sundaymorning]

Every gambler knows you have to double down on a sure thing to make back your losses!

Elon knows a thing or two about gambles and doubling down.

 

[JustMe]

Thanks for correcting my flaky memory. But my point about many of the serious traders being away remains true. Note too that QCOM has never regained that nearly-20-years-ago high. Moral: remember to cash in on the short squeeze! It doesn't mean that the investment won't still be good for buy and hold... just that the squeeze won't last forever. Personally I still don't think this is true squeeze yet.

Yes and good point. This is like the trailhead of a mountain climb when you first start to notice you’re steadily going uphill.

It’s natural to think of TSLA doubling in 6 mo as a big move, but take a look at the 5y chart. It’s only just starting to break out of a long-standing range bound. There’s over $11B of short interest still calling the bluff of Longs and Elon’s bravado who won’t budge at least until Q4 earnings.

I could see another $100 added to the sp just from exuberance. When shorts finally capitulate it could add another digit to the sp. imho.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes but I don't see this as being a profit centre for them, probably barely cover the costs!



Not heard of that before, perhaps its just in your household.

Well maybe it's changed in recent years, but when I was a lad, most people liked to buy in the spring and summer time, with Q3 dead.

 

[humbaba]

Definitely would be smarter than shorting at the bottom.

But if I was a short right now, I would not dare shorting anymore until Q4 prod/delivery numbers. If there is a surprise, it could get be really damaging for them. The risk/reward is just crazy high on the risk side to be shorting more right now.

While I would expect rational shorts (are there any shorting $TSLA? ) to short at an all time high I wouldn't trust Ihor's numbers. He has been materially and significantly wrong before when there was a large change in short holdings. I wouldn't (and don't) ascribe any meaning to his assertions about $TSLA short interest.

If someone else wants to, great, but I highly recommend you track his accuracy for yourself so you have an idea of just how big of a "grain" of salt you're going to need.

 

[Tyler34]

Man you guys are really messing with my short strangle strategy. Grats long, but try to keep the price steady for a few weeks, thanks.

Ditto. I put on a 300/420 strangle when the price was around 330. Gah

 

[Artful Dodger]

Spring 2020? Way too soon, summer ok tho

Not necessarily. April is just 4 mths away. Profitable 2020Q1 Report likely gets TSLA into the S&P 500. That takes us over $500/sh in Spring. Besides, AJ already called it.

 

[AudubonB]

...but I owned a 996,
and earlier a 525,
so we should pass 525 rapidly although I'll wait a while for 993, just as I did to receive the original.

Anybody have a GMC 3500 pickup? Anyone?