![](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1042218541515042816/pSrAPAuj_bigger.jpg)
Replying to @ICannot_Enough @WallStCritic @BarkMSmeagol
I have a $35k $tsla model 3 too. It also includes the premium interior, paint, and battery upgraded I wanted.
![DyvnF7sWkAUeBdr.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyvnF7sWkAUeBdr.jpg)
10:54 AM - 6 Feb 2019
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Weak end to the day :Þ
I'll personally give you the benefit of the doubt, even though I find your posting style... weird... for a long. But I'll reiterate that while I welcome shorts who are aboveboard, astroturfers (aka in this context, people who pretend to be long but actually are short) are very much unwelcome. E.g.: people with different viewpoints = welcome, but liars can go to hell.
As stated, I'm going to operate on the assumption for now that you're in neither group and actually are long. Perhaps trying to parody something - I've certainly had humour fly past me before.Now, if you actually belong in the former group (short and open about it), please say so now. But if it turns out that you're in the latter group, and just pretending to be a long, well...
I think their guidance of 360k-400k deliveries in the Q4 update letter is fundamentally cautious and conservative, with the assumption of a global recession. Elon made this very clear in the conference call:
Elon Musk
"Okay. And we expect that exponential to continue. So with the deliveries this year being - even in the face of - if there's a global recession - even if there's a global recession, we're expecting deliveries this year to be about 50% higher than last year. And this - it could be a lot more than that. But even with tough economic times, to see 50% growth is pretty nutty."
In 2018 they delivered 245.5k vehicles, "about 50% higher" deliveries is 370k vehicles - right in the guidance range.
If Brexiters fail to crash the world economy out of spite I don't expect a global recession from any other source. In that case demand will increase even more - I think there's probably some pent-up demand in the U.S., EU and China already, from economic worries.
I.e. of the ~6 global recession risks that were present in Q4:
The probability of all of these has decreased substantially based on latest events and based on latest economic data, with the exception of BRExit, which is still the same delusive cluster-sugar headed for a hard BRExit I warned about months ago. Today's Tusk comments made it finally really clear to everyone in the U.K. that Europe is sick of the egocentric BRExit mess and is perfectly fine with the U.K. performing economic seppuku via hard-BRExit.
- China recession going global
- China trade war causing global recession
- Federal Reserve rate hikes causing U.S. recession
- U.S. housing market crash causing U.S. recession
- BRExit crash causing global recession
- U.S. tech sector driven U.S. recession
Once there's a China trade deal and the UK has finally crashed out of the EU there's going to be good growth everywhere (except the UK that is - but it's a comparatively small market), and Trump certainly doesn't want a U.S. recession right before his re-election fight. The Fed is probably not going to do anything drastic, to stay out of 2020 presidential election politics.
In fact later in the conference call Elon outlined his expectations for 2019 in more detail:
Elon Musk
"I mean, my best guess, this is just a guess, my best guess for demand of Model 3 worldwide is something - in a strong economy, it's something on the order of 700,000 or 800,000 units a year. That's my best guess for demand of Model 3 in a strong economy."
"If the economy goes into a recession, then I think that could be something under 40% less. But I think even in a recession, worldwide demand is still something in the order of 500,000 for Model 3."
These numbers mean that Tesla expects 40-60% higher Model 3 demand if there is no recession. That would increase the 360k-400k guidance to well above the 500k/year supply that is available.
I.e. I think Tesla is being cautious, they have guided for a recession but are ready to jump on signs of economic growth. There's space for a significant upside surprise.
OUTLOOK
Model 3 production volumes in Fremont should gradually continue to grow throughout 2019 and reach a sustained rate of 7,000 units
per week by the end of the year.
not really, on down day it held support level 316-317, should be OK
Or we've simply seen too many shorts in disguise making garbage claims over and over and over again and have little tolerance for more. Long or short, new posters probably shouldn't assume they suddenly have some unique perspective we haven't considered before. Of course it's possible, just unlikely.I think some longs are just waaaaay too sensitive and can't take a joke, or pointed criticism.
Unfortunately bootleg products on Amazon has become a real problem, one that I genuinely wish that Amazon would take action on. It's been quite frustrating for my wife on some items, and I have to spend more time researching a product to ensure authenticity before ordering, when I shouldn't have to. When I go to Musician's Friend to order a Shure microphone, I know it's legit. On Amazon, I have no way of knowing.Tesla should clarify if this Amazon Tesla store is real. Also what about the other store/brand called TSLA, does it have anything to do with real Tesla? I don't want to donate my money to a fake business.
I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.
No that doesn't happen until Friday...Weak end to the day :Þ
When EM talked about demand, he did not tie it up with their current production capacity, like "ok, the min demand is 500k and we can do that and if it's good times and demand is 700-800k, then we can do that too"
The number of 50% growth is tied to the average for 2018 and we know profitability in Q1-Q2 2018 was not the best.
So, if we compare guided numbers to Q4, then there's not much growth in production and potential costs improvements compared to Q4 ER that stem from "economies of scale". I guess they'll come from other improvements.
It is probably a good approach to set the bar low and "beat", rather than "miss" guidance.
On the other hand, we may see it right in Q1 - if they beat 90k by a large number, then the guidance was too pessimistic and probably shoud not be relied on for the rest of the year.
However, if they are close to the guidance number, then they may have other reasons for containing the growth - whether that's related to costs cutting and not being ready to scale until that is done or being constrained by some bottleneck(s).
Another reason for moderation is a pretty firm statement that they target 7k/week for the EOY.
If they did 7k average for the year, that'd be 336k 3s. With S/X having larger batteries and being cell constrained prob some 70k max. So, very close to 400k total.
If you expect them to beat that and have a lot of upside, they need to be at 7k+/week average.
But then how do you explain this from the letter?
If we assume less than 7k average, for example 6k average, then we get 360k.
IMO owners are still marketing their Tesla cars to others who haven't bought one yet.I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.
With my Model S from early 2013, I am pretty sure I sold more people on buying Tesla's than during all the Referral Program years.IMO owners are still marketing their Tesla cars to others who haven't bought one yet.
This happened before the referral program existed.
.
I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.
They bashed a bit. Talked about competitors coming, huge upcoming debt payment and the need for the stock to be above $360 (did not mention that Tesla has clearly stated that the debt payment is not an issue), and a bit about demand concerns.
It will be great once March 1st has passed and we stop hearing these morons on tv concern-freaking about the debt payment.
There will be something else. They will continue that until it becomes unbearably obvious even to CNBC watchers that the analysts are idiots.It will be great once March 1st has passed and we stop hearing these morons on tv concern-freaking about the debt payment.