Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Blind Faith Price Targets

Renew your faith. The blind, having faith that revenue would grow by 50% per year, have been rewarded with 82.5% growth this last year. Truly now is a blessed time to buy.

 

[Steve m]

Ah look forward to the day Tesla or Musk buys CNBC and cleans house.

 

[scaesare]

Electric Ford F-150 prototype spotted charging

Ford F150 Prototype spotted

Interesting... although I don't find the "analysis" in that article compelling enough to agree with the conclusion that this couldn't be a hybrid.

 

[gora321]

I'm long TSLA but I love poking holes in lame swiss cheese arguments.

Have I read correctly? Mark's Beagle=Mark Spiegel? Just to know who is wasting time hire?

 

[EVNow]

I'm long TSLA but I love poking holes in lame swiss cheese arguments.

That's a long tale, no one can believe. Atleast if you were open about being a short and made a sound argument … you'd get some respect.

This is like saying "I believe in AGW, but love poking holes in lame swiss cheese arguments scientists make. We all know Climate Change is a Chinese hoax."

 

[geometro]

I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.

 

[EVNow]

BTW, all this hand wringing by us is evidence that SP will not dip tomorrow

Hmm … so, there was no dip today …. even with that dive to 316 around 10:23 (which coincided with Nasdaq dive from 7410 to 7350). Sign of maturity ?

BTW, Fidelity news posts "Tesla lowers Model 3 price again" every 15 minutes.

 

[MXWing]

I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.

THIS particular price cut gives salesperson ammo when asked "When is the 35K Model 3 coming".

It's 35K now with incentives, etc, etc.

Marketing doesn't make sense to me, but it works.

 

[Steve m]

I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.

Price cuts not only attract customers but also puts pressure on competitors to cut prices even if their margins don't support equivellent price cuts.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I’m in DaveT’s camp... unclear why price cuts are better, more effective than Marketing. The need to raise awareness is paramount and some type of marketing could be useful here.

I know several people who are waiting for the $35k version to become available, even though they can afford a Performance version— and some can afford an S/X. This drop (to $35.8k after fed, state, and PG&E credits) will probably get some, if not all, of them to pull the trigger. When they do, I suspect they’ll stretch for the dual motors or even the Performance version— they just need the psychological justification of a lower base price first.

 

[humbaba]

So far, Tesla has been meeting or exceeding its Model 3 gross margins every quarter (Q2: >0% vs. 0%; Q3 = >20% vs. 15%; Q4 = >20% vs. 20%). And every quarter they do this intricate price-tuning dance, which ensures that they get their desired margins. I see nothing different happening this time around.

Question, though - I didn't notice any Model 3 gross margin guidance for Q1. Was there any?

I'm pretty sure it was reiterated that GM targets remained the same. I was going to check the transcript for a citation, but alas I appear to have misplaced it.

 

[KarenRei]

Weak end to the day :Þ

 

[lklundin]

Just a quick note to say that the vehicle carrier 'Morning Cindy' has left Pier 80 bound for China (Shanghai) with ETA Feb. 20,
MORNING CINDY Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9633185) - VesselFinder

It appears that someone at the port of Zeebrugge screwed up and let a bunch of photos of off-loaded Model 3s leak out of the apparently restricted area,
Tesla Model 3 'Clone Wars' begin in Europe as Glovis Captain unloads the massive shipment

The photos reportedly came with the information that the port of Zeebrugge has a contract with Tesla for the delivery of 100,000 Model 3s. I asked the tweeter if he had maybe left out the word 'annually' earlier today (since his tweets had been replaced with an explanation that the information had been restricted), but moments later the account was deleted.
Since the word 'annually' is very often left out and implicitly assumed, it is quite possible that this number if accurate means that Tesla has a contract for 100k Model 3 annual deliveries to the EU, ie.a weekly 2k to the EU alone (which could exclude e.g. Norway and Model S/X to Tilburg, I guess).

With the armada of vehicle carriers being on their way now, that seems plausible (to me), even if the last weeks of each quarter would see a dip in shipments.

Let's hope no one lost their job over the above article.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

That's a long tale, no one can believe. Atleast if you were open about being a short and made a sound argument … you'd get some respect.

This is like saying "I believe in AGW, but love poking holes in lame swiss cheese arguments scientists make. We all know Climate Change is a Chinese hoax."

I am not short, I just reply with some spiciness. Literally DaveT makes a similar point, but of course he is very diplomatic so there's no issue. I think some longs are just waaaaay too sensitive and can't take a joke, or pointed criticism.

I need to make sure my investment thesis is stable, that requires poking and prodding, not blind faith.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Interesting... although I don't find the "analysis" in that article compelling enough to agree with the conclusion that this couldn't be a hybrid.

It is a hybrid. ICE engine + faux plug for pictures / rumors.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

I am curious as to the true cost savings of PUP vs. non-PUP. When Tesla cuts out PUP, how much will they truly save? I get the feeling it's $4000 margin, $1000 cost.

This seems to be a big issue in getting to $35 k.

Tesla better hope they can get to that point profitably or else its embarrassing, and could end up like this:

Tesla $35k SR:

Black Only.

Options:

Mobile charger, $500
Passenger's seat, $1000
Tablet, $1500

I mean seriously, I'm obviously joking. Admit you laughed.

 

[TradingInvest]

OT

Yeah it’s gone, the fact it was gone so quickly and the store was a bit poorly designed/planed makes me think it might be fake, set up by an unrelated/unauthorized 3rd-party.

Stuff that was listed might not be from Tesla, maybe people who ordered something would confirm(before returning them).

But, I still think it might be a good idea if Tesla starts to sell low-price high-margin merchs on Amazon(apparels, gadgets, etc).

For example the wireless phone charging power bank alone has the potential to become a half-billion-revenue business.
Also it would be a good advertisement for Tesla energy.

Tesla should clarify if this Amazon Tesla store is real. Also what about the other store/brand called TSLA, does it have anything to do with real Tesla? I don't want to donate my money to a fake business.

 

[gora321]

Greg Wester‏ @gwestr
Tesla has cut the price of Model 3 by $2000 and then $1100, for a total of $3100. US buyers will only need to pay $650 more than last year, net of the federal tax credit. Demand equilibrium secured.

12:40 PM - 6 Feb 2019

 

[KarenRei]

I am not short, I just reply with some spiciness. Literally DaveT makes a similar point, but of course he is very diplomatic so there's no issue. I think some longs are just waaaaay too sensitive and can't take a joke, or pointed criticism.

I need to make sure my investment thesis is stable, that requires poking and prodding, not blind faith.

I'll personally give you the benefit of the doubt, even though I find your posting style... weird... for a long. But I'll reiterate that while I welcome shorts who are aboveboard, astroturfers (aka in this context, people who pretend to be long but actually are short) are very much unwelcome. E.g.: people with different viewpoints = welcome, but liars can go to hell.

As stated, I'm going to operate on the assumption for now that you're in neither group and actually are long. Perhaps trying to parody something - I've certainly had humour fly past me before. Now, if you actually belong in the former group (short and open about it), please say so now. But if it turns out that you're in the latter group, and just pretending to be a long, well...

 

[MXWing]

Tesla should clarify if this Amazon Tesla store is real. Also what about the other store/brand called TSLA, does it have anything to do with real Tesla? I don't want to donate my money to a fake business.

Tesla in combination with Amazon prime could sell ice to Eskimos.

I would consider a surfboard with a flamethrower built into it that with a plug to charge my phone.