Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well if you split the same amount of deliveries / sales between two factories that is a net negative in terms of costs.

Not trying to sound all doom and gloom here, just saying you need more than that to pay for the costs assigned to GF3.

How much is Tesla saving on each MIC Model 3 by NOT paying for shipping from Fremont? And that shipping cost will go down further in 2020Q2 after the GF3 Bty Workshop is producing packs locally (no shipping packs from GF1/Sparks).

Its pretty clear that GF3/Shanghai is NET positive for costs.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone noticed what didn’t happen?
We don’t have an EoQ push email leak yet.

And on cue, redFay wets the bed:

Elktrek 25 minutes ago:

Elon Musk tells Tesla employees to ‘ignore stock price’ in leak email

Click thru if you must, but there is nothing in that article except a continued pattern of 'Click-seeking' headlines from an increasingly irrelevant blog.

Pftt.

 

[HG Wells]

Who knew accounting could be so much like interpretive dance and yet still so boring?

I have always found the curves to be exciting.
Especially S curves.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What would offset the sales drop in the US?

Small price decrease for the US at the beginning of 2020Q1. Same as happened at the beginning of 2019Q3.

And the drop in the Tax Credit is far less than a year ago ($1,875 decrease now vs $3,750 decrease a yr ago), which is also the same decrease as 2019Q3 (which was outstanding).

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why are you not listing solar roofs under the tail wind category? Elon listed it as one of the two highest priorities for this year, and is targeting 1k/week in q1. So it seems like this ramp precedes Model Y ramp, which is not targeting 1k / week til mid-year, and thus is likelier to contribute to q1.

Yes, and Tesla previously announced plans to recognize $500M in FSD revenue in 4 tranches over the folowing year.

That means some released revenue for 2019Q4, and likely much more in 2020Q1.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Elon’s gotta get off twitter tonight. He’s getting baited by haters again....

To me, he seems to just be responding to erroneous tweets about his early childhood. He and his mom have both been sharing very enlightening and entertaining stories of the family's early days. Nothing directly related to Tesla at all.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

Elon’s gotta get off twitter tonight. He’s getting baited by haters again....

Nope, he's rightly correction some serious misinformation that has been making the rounds. Setting the record straight is exactly what he should be doing. Can't imagine why anyone would have a problem with him speaking the truth.

 

[JRP3]

Did you watch Dan Ives (Wedbush) on Bloomberg Business (Youtube Dec 26)?

At 0:44 he says:

"I think right now I view the bear case continues to be still sort of low 200s, but now the Bull case is $580 to $600 in terms of where we could see the stock".

Not the numbers I was emphasizing.

 

[engle]

I have no idea what # of units TSLA will deliver in Q4 except to say that every Model 3 that goes out the door into the factory outboard logistics parking lot WILL be delivered in 2019. That is what the "New Years Eve Factory Delivery Event" is for as long as they can pull it off.

Personally, I don't care what happens to the stock price from month to month since I started buying 8/4/2011 ($25.18/share) after I reserved Model S on August 1st, and added 19 times through 4/2/2018. I put TSLA into my "never sell" category since I don't attempt to trade the historical wild swings. For me, it is an "estate stock". When I die, my son will inherit my shares and the adjusted basis will be the stock price at date of death. Lucky him and sux for me because I'm an atheist so I'm not looking forward to this!

They are even paying to fly some guy in from Florida with "free supercharging" to drive home so he can get his $1,875 tax credit. (His car was on the wrong carrier.) LMFAO!

Amazing what people will do for $1,875! Actually, it partly explains why they can afford a Tesla in the first place. (Google: "over accumulator" I read the book by the two professors many years ago.)

Some guy on TV says: "We are in the business of making money not in the business of being right". WTF kind of B.S. is that? He's talking about investing in tech and risk management.

Another 12/31/2019 Factory update:

"

Thanks Russ. I was at factory today and already they have no parking signs coming up .... in front of showroom and next parking lots.

SA told me that some great surprise are planned.

I am expecting they might show a working Model Y.

Russ wrote:

I will go to V3 "supercharge" there tomorrow to check it out.

In past years they installed a huge white tent for final detailing in the back of it and deliveries in the front. This year, I'm thinking the tent will be used for the party and iPad sign-offs. People will be shuttled over to the Outboard Logistics parking lot to pick up their new cars. This is my guess.

Like what happens at the Annual Stockholders' Meetings in Mt. View Computer History Museum, I expect that not only will we be able to see working Model Y's -- hopefully get to ride in (or at least sit in one) -- but I would not be surprised if the Cybertruck prototype is shipped up from Hawthorne and shown. They may need it in Palo Alto in early 2020 anyway. That would be the "great surprise" the SA mentioned -- besides Elon himself would naturally show up if he's in town instead of in LA with his kids and Grimes. (The Semi was also at the TSLA meeting.)

As I recall, Elon's next massive bonus is triggered when the TSLA market cap hits $100B? He'll do whatever he can to make it happen. I think we'll see that level by the end of 2020 baring a Black Swan event.

Russ

PS. I charged at Hawthorne in LA (SpaceX in front of Tesla Design Studio) a few weeks ago since it has some V3. I spoke with the security guard. He said he was on the security detail for Cybertruck reveal. Said it is "huge" you won't believe its size. Said they were keeping it in storage right now, and bring it to Hawthorne whenever Elon needs a hot ride to impress his dates. (I added the last phrase lol)
""

 

[dc_h]

I guess the delivered cars will only be 15 and to employees because there must be a way to delay the contabilization to 2020.
It would not make any sense to financially include GF3 in Q4 19.

It seems likely that Fremont deliveries will be down at least 10% in Q1. Production up til 12/31 is going for immediate delivery. There will be a gap as they prep for exports this quarter and likely some retooling the first week of the new year. Having 2-3000 inventory and at least 1000 cars a week from GF3 should allow Q1 to equal or nearly equal Q4 deliveries. Steady Q1 numbers would be about 50% year over year. By Q2 Shanghai should be over 2000 weekly and Fremont about 8000 3 and Y plus SX. That would be 140-145,000 deliveries in Q2 would be auto revenue growth of about 35% if ASP is steady vs Q2 2019. Assume some price decline of MIC model 3’s vs Fremont but higher Y ASP. After Q2 year over year growth should accelerate. 13,000 weekly production is 169,000 cars. At 55,000 ASP quarterly auto revenue is 9.3 billion plus service and energy. Assuming Y rollout and Shanghai is running to plan quarterly revenue should be over 11 billion by Q2 or Q3. Hitting plan should be about 600-620,000 cars next year and at least 40 billion in revenue. Going into 2021, if GF4 can begin production in Q1 or Q2 2021 50% delivery and revenue growth again is reasonable. None of that accounts for Semi, Cyber or Roadster or Tesla Solar & Battery. The biggest obstacle is how fast they can continue to scale up. If they can keep executing like they have this year 100 billion in 2022 revenue seems very attainable. Projections assume no recession or other black swan events.

 

[shootformoon]

Professeur Tournesol on Twitter
Rumored they will sell all inventory in NL to a leasing company on Dec 31st. Will they also sell all inventory to some leasing companies in US? Do any of tesla fans own a leasing company?

 

[S3XY]

We gonna get 6,000 pages before 2020?

Does a Tesla bear Sh!t in the woods?

 

[StealthP3D]

On the plus side GF3 ramp-up might be a glorious highlight of Q1, year-over-year comparisons might still be favorable, and if Tesla can post marginal profits in Q1 then they'll probably meet the 12 months profitability S&P 500 inclusion criterion.

I'm confident Q1 profit margins will be more than marginal. Tesla is set to hit the ground running come the beginning of January. The big negative is they will probably be shut down for two weeks for the Chinese New Year so there will be reduced production.

 

[StealthP3D]

But then you are saying that every blue State can't service either. You are just reading it wrong. The exception completely replaced the base color.

No, I'm not saying the states depicted in blue can't service. Because they didn't start our red (meaning no service, no sales). The blue icon is a modifier to the base color of each state with an icon. The map legend instructs that a Tesla logo has an exemption to the no service, no sales (red state) and to refer to the color of the logo to see what the exemption relates to. And the "blue" logo therefore refers to an exemption so Tesla can have sales. But it does not mention an exemption to servicing. At least that's the way it's presented. I'm sure they didn't intend it to mean that but that's what the map depicts. It's just poorly designed.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Nope, he's rightly correction some serious misinformation that has been making the rounds. Setting the record straight is exactly what he should be doing. Can't imagine why anyone would have a problem with him speaking the truth.

Elon gets in trouble when he responds to trolls on twitter or has the recent run up in TSLA made people forget this? There are millions and will continue to be millions of tweets with misinformation regardless of what Elon does. This is not a battle he should be fighting.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It has been mentioned here that there will be investors that will front-run the addition to S&P 500, causing buying pressure BEFORE the date of addition. Which will increase the stocj price, which will increase the weight factor, which will increase the number of billions of dollars worth of TSLA which will have to be bought by index funds, which will increase the attractiveness of the front-running, which will increase the pressure on the shorts, which will increase short covering, which will increase the stock price, which will...
I’m stopping here, let’s just conclude that the addition to S&P500 may be the virtuous circle we’re waiting for (a vicious circle for the shorts).

Can confirm. I've been front running the S&P inclusion for nigh on 6 years.

 

[StealthP3D]

At 0:44 he says:

"I think right now I view the bear case continues to be still sort of low 200s, but now the Bull case is $580 to $600 in terms of where we could see the stock".​

Tomorrow night SanFrancisco 49'ers play the Seattle Seahawks to determine the NFC West champion. According to the most knowledgable NFL expert I. M. Goody, Seattle will either win by up to 31 points or SanFrancisco will pull off a win with as much as a 28 point victory. You can take this call to the bank!

 

[The Accountant]

Tomorrow night SanFrancisco 49'ers play the Seattle Seahawks to determine the NFC West champion. According to the most knowledgable NFL expert I. M. Goody, Seattle will either win by up to 31 points or SanFrancisco will pull off a win with as much as a 28 point victory. You can take this call to the bank!

At halftime, please update your Bear and Bull case. Maybe I can get you on the halftime show with that Wedbush guy.

 

[AZRI11]

Automobile dealerships are very large contributors to state politicians (at least in Texas). They hate Tesla's direct sales model for obvious reasons.

This happened in my backyard. Mayor being an ex-cop makes it perfect. East Providence mayor under investigation for SUV lease

 

[dc_h]

Maybe, but solar installation is IMO hard to ramp, and winter is also not the best season to do it in most of the northern hemisphere. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised about solar, but it's been in hibernation for a long time.

Agreed on discounting potential. Even 100 installs a week would be 2 billion in annual revenue. 1000 a week would be 21 billion, assuming about 40,000 per roof. If it happened, it would be more then amazing.