Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

1.011 Tesla's registered yesterday in the Netherlands
989 M3
11 MS
11 MX

Elektrische Auto Kentekenregistraties

 

[NicoV]

Going into 2021, if GF4 can begin production in Q1 or Q2 2021

Don’t count on that. This is Europe, not China.

 

[Thekiwi]

Agreed on discounting potential. Even 100 installs a week would be 2 billion in annual revenue. 1000 a week would be 21 billion, assuming about 40,000 per roof. If it happened, it would be more then amazing.

I think you added a zero somewhere: 52,000 annual installs (1,000 installs per week) @ $40,000 per install is $2.08 Billion, rather than $21 Billion.

 

[Fact Checking]

But I don't agree that there is ever "house money". A position is always worth what it's worth. And it's your money, not house money. I understand what you are saying, I just don't think that's a healthy way to look at it. If an investor has too much on the line, they should take some off the table, particularly if they are worried it will go down and not recover for a long time.

I fully agree with you here too, "house money" indeed doesn't really exist mathematically, and how much a position is worth should in principle have little effect on the outcome of the investment.

Yet acknowledging this as an investor requires the Zen state of not caring about your high value options position moving 10-20% a day when it reaches the highest delta - which emotional state in my experience most people can only reach once they have a lot of money already. So it's a bit of a catch-22 in the wealth growing stage.

Until that state of mind and net worth is reached managing your emotions can help a lot IMO, and "house money" and taking a bit of profit is one of those little mind tricks of the astute options investor.

 

[Cobbler]

Elon saying to long-term investors/employees:
HOLD YOUR SHARES, this stock will be much higher


Happy New Year everyone! See you next year

 

[Johann Koeber]

Elon saying to long-term investors:
HOLD YOUR SHARES, this stock will be much higher


Happy New Year everyone! See you next year

Link not working

 

[Cobbler]

Link not working

Link to Electrek article about latest email from Elon to employees.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(Dec 27 2019)10 billion loan from Bank of China, tomorrow's first delivery of Chinese-made Model | Jason Yang

 

[T@oo]

A sad note for year end. Found out that I apparently have HW2.5 not 3 as I thought. On the bright side, plenty of water on Mars. All you need is a shovel.

Since I expect the share price of Tesla and some other to rise faster than expected, I might be able to retire in six rather than ten years. But I don‘t want to necessarily sell my shares. Is there a strategy to live off shares but not to sell them? Some points for me to google about? Thx!

 

[hobbes]

And another new record in the Netherlands: 1011 cars delivered yesterday !

EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain

EDIT: Got beat with the news but noone posted the curve yet

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since I expect the share price of Tesla and some other to rise faster than expected, I might be able to retire in six rather than ten years. But I don‘t want to necessarily sell my shares. Is there a strategy to live off shares but not to sell them? Some points for me to google about? Thx!

You could sell covered Calls, but I think that caps you if the SP rises faster than you guessed. So not advice...

You might need a substantial number of shares to live off the income received from covered calls, then only to find your nest egg 'raided'. Again, not advice...

What do you do? ie: do you enjoy working? Any potential for a 'early retirement job' or other income until full retirement?

Best of luck in 2020 and beyond.

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

But this says Tesla's EV share will drop from 75% to 60%??? Makes no sense. It should increase, shouldn't it?

Tesla may starve US to harvest European credits in the FCA-PSA pool.

Everybody below will have full $7500 US Credit
Polestar 2 Volvo XC40 Recharge
LEAF 62 kWh version should be more available
Kia Niro/Hyundai Kona EVs should be more available
Mach E ~20k US sales
Porsche Taycan
Rivian limited initial run
Bollinger and Lucid may have limited initial batch as well.

 

[madodel]

A sad note for year end. Found out that I apparently have HW2.5 not 3 as I thought. On the bright side, plenty of water on Mars. All you need is a shovel.

Since I expect the share price of Tesla and some other to rise faster than expected, I might be able to retire in six rather than ten years. But I don‘t want to necessarily sell my shares. Is there a strategy to live off shares but not to sell them? Some points for me to google about? Thx!

Build a time machine. Go back 20+ years and buy several thousand shares of AAPL. Come back to now and live off the dividends and leave the TSLA and AAPL shares to your heirs. I wish I had bought more AAPL back then and not sold half my shares because a broker kept telling me I had too much AAPL.

 

[Fact Checking]

Since I expect the share price of Tesla and some other to rise faster than expected, I might be able to retire in six rather than ten years. But I don‘t want to necessarily sell my shares. Is there a strategy to live off shares but not to sell them? Some points for me to google about? Thx!

You could sell covered Calls, but I think that caps you if the SP rises faster than you guessed. So not advice...

A viable strategy for a conservative individual investor with a substantial Tesla stake and a desire to 'live off' the shares is IMO to always have both free cash besides having the majority invested in the stock, and decide situationally whether to write calls or puts:

• When the share price is rising and you think it will go up more in the short term, write a few (cash covered) puts but don't deplete cash:
  • best-case (TSLA goes up as you expected) you keep the premium and much of your portfolio goes up in value,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes down and your puts get exercised) you'll increase your portfolio size on a down-leg and keep the premium.
• When the share price is rising and you think it will go down a bit in the short term, write a few (shares covered) calls:
  • best-case (TSLA goes down a bit as you expected) you keep the premium,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes up against your expectations) you get exercised and get cash for a part of your portfolio (you keep the premium), which cash you can either store or use up to write puts (see above)
• When the share price is dropping and you think it will go down more in the short term, write a few (shared covered) calls:
  • best-case (TSLA goes down a bit more as you expected) you keep the premium,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes up against your expectations) you get exercised, you get cash for a bit of your portfolio but you keep the premium.
• When the share price is dropping and you think it will bounce, write (cash covered) puts up to your cash limit:
  • best-case (TSLA goes up as you expected) you keep the premium and the rest of your portfolio appreciates,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes down further than you expected) you get assigned shares and you max out your stake, but you keep the premium.

Also note that there's a few limits and special cases to observe:

• Don't go negative cash (margin) - if your cash dedicated for this position is gone your position is maxed out and you ride out the bottom. Once you think there's a temporary top you can start writing calls again, maybe even re-balance into cash a bit.
  
• Don't divest shares below a 'core shares' percentage - which, if you are otherwise a long term Tesla investor, should be at least ~50% of your assets. Even if you timed everything wrong you'd still ride out the past 6 months with 50% of your assets in TSLA, and you'd also earn quite a bit of extra cash writing puts all the way up.
• Never write naked options. Always cover the worst-case with cash or shares.
  
• You can also, obviously, whenever you think the time is right, buy shares from cash at any moment you think is appropriate. Increasing your stake by buying shares is not a problem, but divesting shares should never be panic or price drop driven, it should be by writing calls.
• A special exception if you think there's a rock-bottom reached, then you can sell shares to buy straight call options and leverage up without the risk of margin.
• Obviously there's plenty of tail risks remaining: a recession might wreck havoc, and single-company investments are always risky: near really high price levels you could consider buying wealth insurance against black swan events, covering your position: for example the 2021 $250 puts are just around $15 right now - you only pay Theta in essence. Just 6 months ago these were going for $100 ... $200 puts go for half of that and $150 puts go for $4, and you could buy 200% of them to protect against a black swan event at $300 effective protection price. These kinds of per year wealth insurance costs would normally be much lower than option writing premiums earned.

Note how in every single case you get to keep the premium, even if you are wrong, and that none of the outcomes will reduce your stake below your limit or will deplete your cash below zero. So you can take advantage of big breakouts and big drops as well, in accordance with your bullish thesis, which hopefully you'll be able to subscribe to for yours.

"Being wrong" won't have a wealth decreasing effect if the stock otherwise goes broadly up according to your bullish thesis - the worst effect is that you might run out of cash to write puts against, or run out of non-core shares to write calls against. You can still always write the other type of options to recover your ability to swing-trade, and to earn premiums.

(I suspect this trading plan is similar to what the unmentionable Tesla investor who left this summer was doing in essence, with millions of dollars worth of TSLA position.)

Selling covered calls when you think the stock will go higher in the short term is a bad idea - selling calls is effectively a profit taking method.

Nevertheless, not advice.

 

[engle]

The caveat below IMHO is the repetitive phrase, "and you think"...

A viable strategy for a conservative individual investor with a substantial Tesla stake and a desire to 'live off' the shares is IMO to always have both free cash besides having the majority invested in the stock, and decide situationally whether to write calls or puts:

• When the share price is rising and you think it will go up more in the short term, write a few (cash covered) puts but don't deplete cash:
  • best-case (TSLA goes up as you expected) you keep the premium and much of your portfolio goes up in value,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes down and your puts get exercised) you'll increase your portfolio size on a down-leg and keep the premium.
• When the share price is rising and you think it will go down a bit in the short term, write a few (shares covered) calls:
  • best-case (TSLA goes down a bit as you expected) you keep the premium,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes up against your expectations) you get exercised and get cash for a part of your portfolio (you keep the premium), which cash you can either store or use up to write puts (see above)
• When the share price is dropping and you think it will go down more in the short term, write a few (shared covered) calls:
  • best-case (TSLA goes down a bit more as you expected) you keep the premium,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes up against your expectations) you get exercised, you get cash for a bit of your portfolio but you keep the premium.
• When the share price is dropping and you think it will bounce, write (cash covered) puts up to your cash limit:
  • best-case (TSLA goes up as you expected) you keep the premium and the rest of your portfolio appreciates,
  • worst-case (TSLA goes down further than you expected) you get assigned shares and you max out your stake, but you keep the premium.

Also note that there's a few limits and special cases to observe:

• Don't go negative cash (margin) - if your cash dedicated for this position is gone your position is maxed out and you ride out the bottom. Once you think there's a temporary top you can start writing calls again, maybe even re-balance into cash a bit.
  
• Don't divest shares below a 'core shares' percentage - which, if you are otherwise a long term Tesla investor, should be at least ~50% of your assets. Even if you timed everything wrong you'd still ride out the past 6 months with 50% of your assets in TSLA, and you'd also earn quite a bit of extra cash writing puts all the way up.
• Never write naked options. Always cover the worst-case with cash or shares.
  
• You can also, obviously, whenever you think the time is right, buy shares from cash at any moment you think is appropriate. Increasing your stake by buying shares is not a problem, but divesting shares should never be panic or price drop driven, it should be by writing calls.
• A special exception if you think there's a rock-bottom reached, then you can sell shares to buy straight call options and leverage up without the risk of margin.
• Obviously there's plenty of tail risks remaining: a recession might wreck havoc, and single-company investments are always risky: near really high price levels you could consider buying wealth insurance against black swan events, covering your position: for example the 2021 $250 puts are just around $15 right now - you only pay Theta in essence. Just 6 months ago these were going for $100 ... $200 puts go for half of that and $150 puts go for $4, and you could buy 200% of them to protect against a black swan event at $300 effective protection price. These kinds of per year wealth insurance costs would normally be much lower than option writing premiums earned.

Note how in every single case you get to keep the premium, even if you are wrong, and that none of the outcomes will reduce your stake below your limit or will deplete your cash below zero. So you can take advantage of big breakouts and big drops as well, in accordance with your bullish thesis, which hopefully you'll be able to subscribe to for yours.

"Being wrong" won't have a wealth decreasing effect if the stock otherwise goes broadly up according to your bullish thesis - the worst effect is that you might run out of cash to write puts against, or run out of non-core shares to write calls against. You can still always write the other type of options to recover your ability to swing-trade, and to earn premiums.

(I suspect this trading plan is similar to what the unmentionable Tesla investor who left this summer was doing in essence, with millions of dollars worth of TSLA position.)

Selling covered calls when you think the stock will go higher in the short term is a bad idea - selling calls is effectively a profit taking method.

Nevertheless, not advice.

 

[T@oo]

A viable strategy ...

Nevertheless, not advice.

Printing it right now. Thanks for your efforts! I will have other income too. And maybe Tesla will even pay some dividends some day.

 

[dgodfrey]

A sad note for year end. Found out that I apparently have HW2.5 not 3 as I thought. On the bright side, plenty of water on Mars. All you need is a shovel.

Since I expect the share price of Tesla and some other to rise faster than expected, I might be able to retire in six rather than ten years. But I don‘t want to necessarily sell my shares. Is there a strategy to live off shares but not to sell them? Some points for me to google about? Thx!

Great question. Similar pickle but FC’s explanation is over my head. Need to find a continuing Ed class on this next level of trading/investing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA's big month: Dec 2019: Can you say 100 bux? Or perhaps you prefer +30%

Either way, TSLA is on a tear, with much good news in the wings to move us higher.

Cheers!

 

[Zaxxon]

Elon's breath is enough to bait the haters. Haters gonna hate. Can't fix stupid.

You could say he's tweeting with bated breath.

*rimshot*

I'm here all week; try the veal.

 

[jbcarioca]

Build a time machine. Go back 20+ years and buy several thousand shares of AAPL. Come back to now and live off the dividends and leave the TSLA and AAPL shares to your heirs. I wish I had bought more AAPL back then and not sold half my shares because a broker kept telling me I had too much AAPL.

Makes me happy I deal only with advice-free brokers. It’s nice to live on dividends plus pension payments. Not so nice to remember that the post-Boomer world mostly will not be able to do that and the Pre-Boomers have made out incredibly well.

Luckily TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, BYD et al are all pretty much post-Boomer creations. Welcome, all, to the 21st Century! On this board, at least, people seem to have the ability to ignore the mad oscillations and stick with the future.