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In Q1 battery cells and packs, will still be delivered to GF3 from the USA. So unless there is some major increase in GF1 cell production my wild assumption based on very incomplete information is that Tesla will not counter the seasonal lower demand with price drops because they want to send battery packs to GF3. In Q2 there will be Chinese battery production and Model Y so there will be more battery supply and much more demand as well.
They seemed to have been on track to get at least 10,000 packs to Shanghai by now. That means only 1000 a week to build about 20,000 by end of Q1. LG and CATL should be delivering some limited cells at some point in Q1. The pack assembly building is t done yet, but appears a couple to a few weeks from the exterior being complete. good point though, hard for Shanghai to build more then 20,000 without local pack supplies.
 
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Not yet.

But after TSLA hits four digits and they tragically lose their house and end up sleeping in a hollow log in the city park to hide from creditors...

If the shorts have *any* brains left they will:
  1. Get a $77K cash advance from their credit cards to buy a Tri-Motor Cybertruck with Full Self-Driving in 2022,
  2. Install:
    1. dark window film,
    2. an electric refrigerator,
    3. an electric microwave or cooktop,
  3. Roam the country from supercharger-to-supercharger wearing adult "depends" diapers:
    1. hiding from their creditors in the "vault" in back stoned on 420 during the day,
    2. binge-watching Six Feet Under in front at night, and
    3. listening to Pink Floyd's "Money" while eating supercharger lounge vending machine sandwiches.
  4. Live stream their new "life" on Youtube. Then (of course) waste the funds shorting more TSLA whenever it reaches $2,000/share!!!
Sorry for being so harsh I love when shorts get squeezed! :D

[We can run a betting pool on what # the last 2019 post will be and who will get it.]
 
Couldn’t find a Tesla connection in that story. Was there one? Curious what R.I. dealer shenanigans related to Tesla have happened in the past.
My point was how a politician can be bought off by a stealership. Although, in my state (R.I.) Tesla played the game :rolleyes: hired this politician to be their lawyer in order to get a license to sell cars Home - Joe Shekarchi
Tesla coming to Warwick in 2019
 
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To me, this indicates the stealth short burn is intact. Under promise, over-deliver.

You know Musk has been planning this for over a year. I can talk about this openly because TSLA short-sellers are more stubborn than oxen and more stupid than Dumb and Dumber. They came out with a movie after Dumb and Dumber for this very reason. It was called Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest. Tesla short-sellers are so dumb they wear the title "Dumbest" as a badge of honor because it ends in "best". :p
Actually the sequel was Dumb and Dumberer, but that ruins your joke. Sorry. :p
 
Actually the sequel was Dumb and Dumberer, but that ruins your joke. Sorry. :p
To me, this indicates the stealth short burn is intact. Under promise, over-deliver.

You know Musk has been planning this for over a year. I can talk about this openly because TSLA short-sellers are more stubborn than oxen and more stupid than Dumb and Dumber. They came out with a movie after Dumb and Dumber for this very reason. It was called Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest. Tesla short-sellers are so dumb they wear the title "Dumbest" as a badge of honor because it ends in "best". :p

This scene accurately describes shortsellers.
578CF44B-865D-4FB1-B596-D31605719C6A.jpeg
 
They said that GF3 is currently body and assembly only. I assume all this will be done in China soon e.g. Q2. "Know" might be a strong word. That is my best guess based on the incomplete information we have.
Nope, seat are made locally. I saw a picture a while ago where the seat manufacturer celebrated the start of the production.
 
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Professeur Tournesol on Twitter
Rumored they will sell all inventory in NL to a leasing company on Dec 31st. Will they also sell all inventory to some leasing companies in US? Do any of tesla fans own a leasing company?
Interesting question!

Could any of us start an LLC and buy a few Teslas for use by Uber or whatever? Then we'd be able to write them off our taxes, no?
 
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How much is Tesla saving on each MIC Model 3 by NOT paying for shipping from Fremont? And that shipping cost will go down further in 2020Q2 after the GF3 Bty Workshop is producing packs locally (no shipping packs from GF1/Sparks).

Its pretty clear that GF3/Shanghai is NET positive for costs.

Cheers!
Shipping costs (and tariffs) have always been transferred to the consumer - at least here in Europe. As far as I know China had the same set-up.

Now it is true, that with those costa gone, MIC is cheaper than imported M3s, so this will boost demand.
 
I think you're stuck in 2019. GF1/Sparks is at 10K Model 3 packs per week RIGHT NOW. Those Model 3s will all get built, whether at Fremont or at GF3/Shanghai. They'll adjust pack shipping as required.

That's about 120K Model 3s, plus if we add in a conservative 15K (likely higher) Models S/X from Fremont, thats at least 135K production for 2020Q1.

Logistics will actually be better than 2019 due to the presence of GF3, so the percentage of delivered/produced vehicles may actually increase.

Cheers!
OK, so just to calrify: I am not saying they have a 2020 demand issue. But the auto business is cyclical, sales are not flat all through the year. Q1 is traditionally weaker.

But maybe Tesla will dodge this trend.

Now even if this happens, they may use this as an opportunity to train staff in Model Y, start up those lines and use the extra GF1 packs for the Y as well.
 
Agreed on discounting potential. Even 100 installs a week would be 2 billion in annual revenue. 1000 a week would be 21 billion, assuming about 40,000 per roof. If it happened, it would be more then amazing.

R&D cost and all other stuff associated with owning what previously was a non-working Buffalo factory should be on the books somewhere dragging profitability down. But maybe it'll be like with Model 3 ramp, once they start selling first it'll have a negative effect because of low volume, then once volume ramps up it'll be all smiles. So not so sure about what will solar roof do in Q1, hopefully there will be some guidance from Tesla during ER.
 
OK, so just to calrify: I am not saying they have a 2020 demand issue. But the auto business is cyclical, sales are not flat all through the year. Q1 is traditionally weaker.

But maybe Tesla will dodge this trend.

Now even if this happens, they may use this as an opportunity to train staff in Model Y, start up those lines and use the extra GF1 packs for the Y as well.
i kind of view Tesla’s production and delivery logistics these days as something like juggling while log rolling as strangers scream at you that you’re going to fail. Meanwhile, mini-drones circle overhead to take pictures of what you’re juggling and thousands of people are telling you to hurry up! Just when you think you’ve got things sort of under control, - Elon Musk hops on the log and hands you a baby. “It’s a Model Y, isn’t she cute? Take good care of her - brb, Got a few more babies on the way!”

Yeah okay it’s past my bedtime .. anybody like my frog?
 
Elon gets in trouble when he responds to trolls on twitter or has the recent run up in TSLA made people forget this? There are millions and will continue to be millions of tweets with misinformation regardless of what Elon does. This is not a battle he should be fighting.

While this was true at times in the past, and Elon indeed got into trouble in the past for defending himself, this time he and his mother Maye Musk handled it elegantly and powerfully:

upload_2019-12-29_9-24-19.png



upload_2019-12-29_9-26-45.png

The only tool to correct vile lies about his childhood that garnered tens of thousands of "likes" on Twitter and form the backbone of smear attacks against him and Tesla is for Elon and his family to correct the record in a few specific cases.

I do agree with you that Elon should not try to be defensive about everything, and I do think he learned this lesson, his tweeting has been top notch over the past couple of months.