Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I did read it but could not find any indications that its the 70 to 1 castigates machine other than the 61 tons pressure but even that is not one. Not an expert in that technology though.

The page says "6100t Tonnen", with 95 kg of material per "charge" (injection shot I suspect).

In principle it's possible to use multiple shots, but I'd agree with @KarenRei that the part mass is 95 kg - definitely not whole-body. Still just a few parts of up to 95 kg parts reduce the number of weld points and the parts count by an order of magnitude.

Patent filing notwithstanding, IMO there's no economic need to cast the whole body in a single step IMO. It would also make QA harder: this casting machine comes with a Röntgen machine to test for bubbles/cavities/cracks non-destructively, doing that on a whole car size is very challenging.

So my hypothesis is that Tesla settled on a good equilibrium between cost and benefit of cast part size: both too large and too small body parts sizes has disadvantages, there's a golden middle.

 

[TradingInvest]

Not to dismiss the brain power of Israeli workforce in fields like battery/automotive/AI and basicity all areas of current academic research... However my guess is Musk's main motivation is luring in Mobileye personnel. Tesla appears to be several years behind Mobileye, whose camera-based cars demonstrate the ability of an intelligent driver in diverse driving conditions.

I'd suggest investing some time to watch a recent presentation by Mobileye's CEO:
1. first 11min are business description..
2. Technical talk sprinkled with demonstration videos start at 11:16

3. In the video description, there's a link for the full 20min demonstration video which is used throughout the presentation.


In any case, hoping for new TSLA ATH next week... I do need to maintain my latest habit.



May you Invest long $TSLA and prosper!

Tesla's FSD program is much more advanced, not at the same level. Tesla has research centers in several countries, not intended to luring people from particular companies. It's positioned to be a large global company.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Everything seems to be fitting together:

• Tesla patents system for casting whole bodies in a single casting
• Musk talks about fascinating manufacturing techniques for the Model Y
• GF4's Model Y line will have an unusually massive foundry

Seems pretty straightforward, I guess...

I still have trouble that believing that the Ys out of Fremont will be made with such a system, however. No permits for it, no signs of its construction, too fast of a timetable, not in line with the intent of getting the Y out as soon as possible by making it share as much as possible with the 3, etc. I think GF4 will be pioneering a new path. And since 3 and Y share a common platform, subsequent 3 lines will be built in a similar manner.

ED: Hmm, only 95kg per batch? And alumium? Maybe not then.

Musk said in the early June interview with Ryan McCaffrey that the Y underbody will be made of an aluminum casting but it sounds there will be a first generation (4 castings joined together) then a second (1 casting.) So maybe the 2020 Model Y will be gen1 and the Giga4 version will be gen2. Per Teslarati:

Musk detailed how the Model Y underbody was switched to aluminum casting instead of stamped steel and aluminum pieces, which greatly simplifies the moving parts involved in making the vehicle.

This change effectively means that initially, using two castings to make the structure will take the process from 70 parts to 4 (castings plus joiners), and once the “big” casting machine comes into operation, the process will have brought the process from 70 parts to 1 (casting only). Using casting over stamping reduces the weight of the Model Y, improves MHB (heat produced), lowers cost due to the smaller number of parts necessary, and significantly drops capital expenditure on robots.
Tesla's Elon Musk details Model Y manufacturing improvements, insight on design

 

[LJS22]

Man - I wish there was a daily ESPN highlights from this section of TMC. I’d pay for it.

Not much today, early talk of two downgrades and a new investigation into a Tesla crash, then we waited on 500...then fell below 490 then the thread was shut down for 10 minutes allegedly then as we dropped below 480 people considered the best strategy for trading half their shares, then as it hit 475 people considered this a buying opportunity then a couple pages of people complaining about people taking profit, then the rationale hit that we are at 480 which is double what Tesla sold the additional shares for 5 months ago.
Now we realize we’re fine and the best is yet to come.

 

[Artful Dodger]

WOW, did you notice VWAP today being about the same price?

Just collected the 20:00 hrs data from NASDAQ: they reported 28,484,290 shares traded at an VWAP of $485.59 (exact figures subject to revision over the next 48 hrs).

Yeah, so today's VWAP was just 20 cents less than yesterday's. Of course with today's volume those 2 dimes add up to $284,843.00 or about 587 shares worth...

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Not much today, early talk of two downgrades and a new investigation into a Tesla crash, then we waited on 500...then fell below 490 then the thread was shut down for 10 minutes allegedly then as we dropped below 480 people considered the best strategy for trading half their shares, then as it hit 475 people considered this a buying opportunity then a couple pages of people complaining about people taking profit, then the rationale hit that we are at 480 which is double what Tesla sold the additional shares for 5 months ago.
Now we realize we’re fine and the best is yet to come.

Pretty good summary... pregnancy....what constitutes a trade.... options strategy...couple other thigs.

 

[Unpilot]

Just collected the 20:00 hrs data from NASDAQ: they reported 28,484,290 shares traded at an VWAP of $485.59 (exact figures subject to revision over thenext 48 hrs).

VWAP?

Sorry not up to speed.

 

[Dig deeper]

VWAP= Volume weighted average price.

 

[Unpilot]

VWAP= Volume weighted average price.

Thanks

 

[Artful Dodger]

GF4 would be the first factory where they can build it from the ground up with the Y manufacturing process already matured, so it'll be interesting to see how it's done.

That's probably not going to be the first. GF3/Phase 2 (Model Y addition) will almost certainly begin construction very soon (I'd guess after the Chinese New Year break).

Shanghai will have it's Model Ys coming off the assembly line by Dec 2020. GF4/Berlin isn't even scheduled to be finished construction until 2021Q2 (and that's if there are no 'bat delays').

Could GF4 have a new foundry design? Sure, but that doesn't preclude it also being a part of GF3/Shanghai.

Cheers!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Absolute 100% Guaranteed MUST WATCH

Tesla Daily killed explaining what’s going 0n. Especially for those who are hypothesizing reasons for this run!

This made me want to max out my margin on deep OTM LEAPS. Not new information to a lot of us here, but when it’s all laid out like that...had me thinking “Stop! I can only get so bullish!”

 

[ABCTG]

Aah...if I get around to it I might try my hand here, but I've a few Can't Wait chores and projects to get to so -

it has not been difficult to follow Norway's Sovereign Fund - that's the Whale of all equity Whales - and learn how their equity portfolio is positioned, but I've never tried same with the Japanese government pension fund. That can be valued even larger than Norway's, although my recollection from my time in Japan back during the early years of the Tokugawa Shogunate, equity shares took a far back seat; it was mostly in bonds and real estate.

Anyway: is someone interested in volunteering to take a look-see? Or should I volunteer you to do it?

The GPIF* is big on ESG*, and controls 1.6 trillion dollars in assets. That’s large enough that the fund owns about 10% of the Japanese stock market and about 1% of the world’s stock market. It’s one of the largest pools of capital in the world.

With them buying TSLA stock, it looks like it would be putting it's money where it's mouth is.


*Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan

*Environmental, Social, and Governance

ESG is the acronym for Environmental, Social, and Governance. While investors have traditionally used cash flows, profit margins and other quantitative financial data to value a company’s equity or other securities, “ESG investment” also takes non-financial ESG factors into consideration.


https://www.gpif.go.jp/en/investment/190905_Esg_Report.pdf
Should a Pension Fund Try to Change the World?

brief google search couldn't find list of their holdings

 

[Artful Dodger]

VWAP?

Sorry not up to speed.

Yup, VWAP

 

[Fact Checking]

Assuming 80% of converts are delta hedged, these are the changes in $ short interest. The estimate for 6-Jan assume real shorts have maintained the same $ exposure since the last Nasdaq report in mid December. This suggests real short exposure has varied between $7.2bn and $8.3bn and is close to the lows currently. They have lost a very significant amount of $bns to maintain this position over the past year.

View attachment 497056

These are the changes in short shares outstanding. Real shorts have likely bought back 23.1 million shares since May. This is likely because many have fund $ exposure limits to Tesla and real shorts are capital constrained at $7-8bn. Real shorts would have had to buy ~4 million shares just since mid December just to maintain their same $ exposure to Tesla.

View attachment 497057

It's worth noting, this methodology predicts short interest of 25.3 million shares on 31-December-2019 (17.5m real shorts, 7.9m convert hedge). @ihors3 predicted 27.5 million short on 31-Dec. The real number will be reported on 10th Jan.

Interesting tidbit from Ihor:

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

"I believe that #Tesla convertible bonds all have conversion prices way below today's stock price so most of the arb bond holders should already be fully hedged or close to fully hedged and not need to short much more stock."​

I.e. the run-up allowed convertible debt bond holders to buy hedging puts and close their short positions, allowing them to take advantage of any subsequent rise in the share price, without the downside risks.

I.e. the "80% of convertible notes are short hedged with equity short positions" assumption might not be true anymore.

The consequence: much of the remaining 27m short shares are exposed to a short squeeze.

 

[SO16]

Well... what if you want to pull out some TSLA to buy a Tesla? (Not that I'm hoping the minivan will have a catastrophic breakdown or anything... OK I am.)

I did that for my Model S in 2016. Sticker price: 105k
Actual cost to me because I sold TSLA shares: 232k

Yup...shoulda held those shares and financed the car instead.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

I did that for my Model S in 2016. Sticker price: 105k
Actual cost to me because I sold TSLA shares: 232k

Yup...shoulda held those shares and financed the car instead.

if financed, you couldn’t bought the shares back @180 this past summer with all the monthly payment savings since 2016 plus interests making it close to FREE lolz..

All depend on how you look at the situation I guess.

 

[AudubonB]

The GPIF* is big on ESG*, and controls 1.6 trillion dollars in assets. That’s large enough that the fund owns about 10% of the Japanese stock market and about 1% of the world’s stock market. It’s one of the largest pools of capital in the world.

With them buying TSLA stock, it looks like it would be putting it's money where it's mouth is.


*Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan

*Environmental, Social, and Governance

ESG is the acronym for Environmental, Social, and Governance. While investors have traditionally used cash flows, profit margins and other quantitative financial data to value a company’s equity or other securities, “ESG investment” also takes non-financial ESG factors into consideration.


https://www.gpif.go.jp/en/investment/190905_Esg_Report.pdf
Should a Pension Fund Try to Change the World?

brief google search couldn't find list of their holdings

Good
Holy
Mother
Of
.....

You know, I actually read both those links. I had to print them out, because.....

Right now, I am sitting in the smallest room in my house.
I have those printouts in front of me.
In a moment, they will be behind me.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So to sum up:

If you think the stock will be at $400, A.
If you think the stock will be below $400 or above $500 and no higher than $620, C.
If you think the stock will be above $620 and have hands of steel, D. Otherwise, B.

That about right?

No, absolutely not. You describe this as though you think one of the choices is 100% probability. Obviously, if you are paying any attention to Karen at all, you assign your degree of belief to each possibility and that produces an aggregate return. If you are going to act as though you are 100% sure of anything then 1) the right strategy is obvious; and 2) you'll probably lose most of your money.

 

[dc_h]

EDIT: Looks like I was posting after others already noted it up-thread, sorry!

///////////
Nearly had a heart-attack seeing this headline:
Tesla US Factory shut down according to rep, US deliveries pushed by +8 weeks : teslamotors

Turns out the dumbass was told they'd need to wait 8+ weeks for a new USA spec car because Tesla is "focusing on China and Germany..." (OPs words, not mine.)

Thankfully most folks have already blasted OP for a wildly misleading title who seems clueless and under the impression "If they're not making *my* car, then they're shut down!!11111"

Cars are being loaded at pier 80 apparently for S Korea. I’d expect rapid loading at the pier this month, in addition to smaller ships for ANZ and other markets. The USA and Canada markets have had inventory wiped out, so Q1 may actually have backed up demand. Norway and UK are probably also have demand that was deferred for the Netherlands.
its early, so don’t want to get ahead of any realistic expectations.

 

[gerebgraus]

I did that for my Model S in 2016. Sticker price: 105k
Actual cost to me because I sold TSLA shares: 232k

Yup...shoulda held those shares and financed the car instead.

Newbie mistake. You should have checked the 2020 TSLA price also and not just price at that time. Next time you should do better.