Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

We will probably get in trouble for this being off topic but I agree. It doesn't make any sense for them to sell cars if robotaxis are so profitable. Some disagree, but they can't explain why.

I'll bite. I disagree because I think you guys both vastly underestimate when "RoboTaxis" become reality and vastly overestimate the number of people that are going to give up on private car ownership in favor of robotaxis.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yep. It's a Flippin' Fiat.

Yes, but both the Freemont and the Dodge original sell pretty well for Giant Old machines here in Brazil, probably because they're both cheaper than are better ones. And after all we buy more Fiats than any other country, including Italy. That's partly why almost every senior Fiat executive has lived in Belo Horizonte. Of course since they no longer have the #1 sales slot they're more nervous than usual. Even so the Fiat Multiplo remains my favorite large SUV of all time. That means nothing since I'd never buy one, just want to ride in one as an Uber or taxi.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'll bite. I disagree because I think you guys both vastly underestimate when "RoboTaxis" become reality and vastly overestimate the number of people that are going to give up on private car ownership in favor of robotaxis.

That doesn't impact the decision from Tesla to sell me a 50k car or keep it to make a few 100k in profits as a robo taxi.

Huh? I disagree, and I've repeatedly explained why.

Because a huge chunk of the world's population wants to own their own car, and will pay you money to do so, even if that car is prevented from operating as a robotaxi to earn them money on the side, which many of them don't even want (they don't want other people in their car... they just want their car). And production rates simply won't be limiting. The rate in which FSD systems become globally approved, and in which the public comes to accept them, and use them in mass quantities, means that the deployment will get dragged out over half a decade or more from when you've first demonstrated what you think to be "good enough". Meanwhile, if you've actually demonstrated something "good enough", mobs of bankers and investors will knock down your door with a battering ram to throw money at you to build more factories.

It doesn't matter if I want to own a car or not, it matters if Tesla can make more profit from a Robotaxi car or from selling a car.

Obviously this assumes that production is limited. If production isn't limited then they will have capacity to sell both. I don't disagree with that.

I think you all are drastically overestimating people wanting to keep their own cars but we shall see. I don't think people are this dumb, which says a lot because I have a rather low opinion of people. The average American spent about $8500 on their cars in 2016. Mean pre-tax income is 48k. So people will really opt to continue spending 1/5th of their take home pay (in a nation where people struggle to pay health costs, have little to no retirement savings etc.)? If robotaxis are plentiful and cheap, it will be really dumb to buy your own car, from a financial perspective.

I hope I'm very wrong and that I can keep buying Teslas, if I choose to do so. ​

 

[carterm2]

I have 2 deep in the money calls expiring next Friday that I will allow to be exercised, to avoid paying short term capital gains tax on the gains. I will then hold the shares for over a year so I have long term capital gains, taxed at 15% in the US.

This is another reason why there will be many calls exercised next week.

I am also doing the same... this is one of the factors for the stock increase supporting itself.

Can someone with greater technical skills speak to the volume increase, please? I also wonder why the short interest seems to have only dropped ~35% while the stock has risen significantly since May. (other than big oil being subsidized 40 % with $2T in profits wanting to slow down TSLA and can afford to throw away huge $$$ for nothing.)

Also I have noticed that the chart for AAPL is interesting... coupled with spending. The 1,3,6,month and 1 year chart is a very steady climb for the last year while cash has dropped significantly relative to profits. With Sony, Google and Apple as future competitors folks like BMW should be getting nervous, in a long term way.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We will probably get in trouble for this being off topic but I agree. It doesn't make any sense for them to sell cars if robotaxis are so profitable. Some disagree, but they can't explain why.

Simple: the Mission. If Tesla does not sell to private users, then those cars will be sold by other companies, especially the tech-starved ICE-dinosours.

 

[Nocturnal]

Simple: the Mission. If Tesla does not sell to private users, then those cars will be sold by other companies, especially the tech-starved ICE-dinosours.

If Tesla can grow large enough to service both of those markets, I'm going to have a really amazing retirement.

edit, we all will

 

[Unpilot]

The market turned red. We just got the TSLA multiplier.

Ok Nasdaq is green now....let's go!

 

[traxila]

Simple: the Mission. If Tesla does not sell to private users, then those cars will be sold by other companies, especially the tech-starved ICE-dinosours.

If Robo taxi is really are a thing (big if and when...) then many more ICE cars would be taken off the road by using them as such and allowing people to simply never purchase a car because it is too cheap to summon them instead.

Next generation not care about cars so much. Want mobility.

 

[StealthP3D]

I also wonder why the short interest seems to have only dropped ~35% while the stock has risen significantly since May. (other than big oil being subsidized 40 % with $2T in profits wanting to slow down TSLA and can afford to throw away huge $$$ for nothing.)

I think when the official short numbers are released you will see that the number of shares short has dropped considerably. But will probably be surprised how many still remain.

 

[JRP3]

I continued the motor discussion here for those interested: Model S Plaid

 

[Opus BC fan]

Reviewing today's price action:

meh.

 

[JRP3]

Not sure what to make of this: Panasonic warns US solar installers of Tesla designated panels on the market with no warranties

Panasonic has warned US solar installers about Tesla selling a “large quantity” of its solar panels designated to the company to an unidentified third-party wholesaler that would not be covered by Panasonic product warranties.

 

[Nocturnal]

Reviewing today's price action:

meh.

It feels like how when you are driving on the highway at very high speeds for a long time, and then have to slow down to 60, you feel like you aren't moving at all.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ok Nasdaq is green now....let's go!

TSLA share price is marching to the beat of its own drummer. I'm not saying the macros don't affect it but it's not the main driver. There are powerful underlying dynamics at work as we churn through this transition in perception and the volume has made it a lot more difficult to manipulate.

 

[jerry33]

We will probably get in trouble for this being off topic but I agree. It doesn't make any sense for them to sell cars if robotaxis are so profitable. Some disagree, but they can't explain why.

If Robo taxi is really are a thing (big if and when...) then many more ICE cars would be taken off the road by using them as such and allowing people to simply never purchase a car because it is too cheap to summon them instead.

Next generation not care about cars so much. Want mobility.

In places where there is very good public transportation which has been available for a long time people still have cars for vacations and such. They don't put many miles on the cars (or travel vans and similar) but they still have them. When going on vacation, it's not only the cost of the car, but the cost of the rooms, which a robotaxi won't reduce (even if the robotaxi allows it, which it might not).

 

[ZsoZso]

There seems to be some support at $475 we bounced back up from there twice already.

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg - this morning: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Headline: Tesla Target Hiked 30% by Piper Sandler Based on China Potential

Piper Sandler is the name for the recently merged Piper Jaffray and Sandler O'Neill. Their chief technical analyst is still Craig Johnson who was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. He sends me complimentary copies of his weekly newsletter. I was pleased earlier this week when post-merger I still received his letter. On 2013 JAN 28 in that letter he recommended Tesla Motors. I had not then heard of it, but did deep research before buying more and more of it each day that week.

 

[adiggs]

If Robo taxi is really are a thing (big if and when...) then many more ICE cars would be taken off the road by using them as such and allowing people to simply never purchase a car because it is too cheap to summon them instead.

Next generation not care about cars so much. Want mobility.

I do think this is true. I also think that it's simplified.

I think that this is easy for business travelers, and anybody that's single and / or hasn't started a family yet.


Mobility is more complex as people glob together into families. It's a lot easier to get the car loaded with a group of people and kids going somewhere together, when it's their own car. Some people can go out to the car first to get the herd moving, others will straggle in later. Car seats already in place. You know where the bag of soccer balls gets tossed. All those little details of stuff happening.

Then when you arrive at your destination, there's a bunch of stuff you can leave in your own car because you'll need it for the next stop in the errand run. Are you going to fully unload this robotaxi, carry that stuff around, and then fully load everything back into the next robotaxi? Or are you going to keep the current robotaxi there at the soccer game with the meter running?

My only point is that there are good reasons for having one's own car IN ADDITION TO there being good reasons for some people going carless and relying fully on robotaxi services. In the early days, many people will use robotaxis they way I use Lyft today - a trip or 3 per month because I have a particular transportation need where hauling along my car creates some extra logistics.
- going to the airport (I'd rather not leave my car in airport parking for a week while I'm out of town) and returning from the airport
- taking my car into service (getting back from service; and then returning to service to pickup my car)


Or as @KarenRei says - because people want them

 

[willow_hiller]

Not sure what to make of this: Panasonic warns US solar installers of Tesla designated panels on the market with no warranties

My interpretation was that Tesla purchased panels from Panasonic at some sort of discounted rate by waiving the manufacturer warranty. This didn't matter to customers when the panels were installed by Tesla, since they warrantied the panels themselves; but now Tesla is selling those panels on to a third-party, and Panasonic wants to make it clear that those do not come with their manufacturer warranty.

 

[tschmidty]

That doesn't impact the decision from Tesla to sell me a 50k car or keep it to make a few 100k in profits as a robo taxi.

It doesn't matter if I want to own a car or not, it matters if Tesla can make more profit from a Robotaxi car or from selling a car.

Obviously this assumes that production is limited. If production isn't limited then they will have capacity to sell both. I don't disagree with that.

I think you all are drastically overestimating people wanting to keep their own cars but we shall see. I don't think people are this dumb, which says a lot because I have a rather low opinion of people. The average American spent about $8500 on their cars in 2016. Mean pre-tax income is 48k. So people will really opt to continue spending 1/5th of their take home pay (in a nation where people struggle to pay health costs, have little to no retirement savings etc.)? If robotaxis are plentiful and cheap, it will be really dumb to buy your own car, from a financial perspective.

I hope I'm very wrong and that I can keep buying Teslas, if I choose to do so. ​

Cars already don't make economic sense to own, and yet everyone wants one. A lot of American psyche is wrapped up in freedom and the things that go along with that. You think these people that drive a Ford F-250 for their solo 25 mile commute each day are going to give it up because it is cheaper to take a robotaxi? Do I rent a robotaxi to tow my boat to the lake? Is there an option to rent one with a bike rack so I can go out to the mountains to ride my mountain bike?

For that matter do you really think Tesla will all of the sudden just close their doors and stop selling cars? If so I have a twitter hashtag for you.