Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Wow, just... Wow!!!

 

[StealthP3D]

Orange you glad you're glad you didn't get lemons?

 

[Dutchie]

Just woke up. Anything happening today? Someone care to give me a recap?

 

[M3Rider]

TSLA sold off right on cue today...this was a chip shot really...ended up unloading half early yesterday and the rest near the close yesterday...the euphoria of the TSLA bulls and extremely bullish sentiment and the charts say there needs to be a modest selloff and let the stock consolidate and digest this run up.

I see a chop between 450-500 until earnings...I will be re-buying all my shares within the next 2 weeks...after earnings we are either going back under 400 or blasting past 500...I think the latter will happen...earnings will beat estimates this quarter...more people will pile on.

Still hoping to re-buy your shares under sold price $490?

I don't have the nerve for selling shares anymore.

 

[Curt Renz]

The angry guy said “it’s just a short squeeze. Not hard to figure out. It doesn’t have to be complicated.” Then another guy said “it’s not always the fundamentals that drive a stock”
But the angry guy said “Tesla miles are not real, they are human miles, Waymo is autonomous miles!!” Someone should have asked if it’s better we human train a neural net/chip or put a $400k box of lasers on our cars?

The "angry guy" does not seem to understand that for billions of miles Tesla cars have been surveying and reporting their surroundings and autopilot/driver reactions, no matter whether autopilot is turned on. This is done to make the continuously updated maps eventually needed for fully autonomous driving, and to gain necessary information about how autopilot or a human driver reacts to various situations. The millions of miles for Waymo pales in comparison.

The problem is that CNBC presents as regular commentators many clueless money managers who just pop-off to support their own asset positions, without true understanding of what is being discussed.

EDIT: Provided enhancements thanks to suggestion by @mongo

 

[dc_h]

I'm not a heavy trader.. what do you think of a 2% trailing stop sell order?

I sold half of my "trading TSLA" shares (short-term buys avg @$285) at $391, then another half of the remainder at at 488.
I'm getting nervous with the remaining 25% still open.

I still have a ton of TSLA in my retirement account (avg @$236), so I'm still in long-term.

I got talked into selling AMZN at $128 by a neighborhood expert trader. The trade lost about 90% of its value, while AMZN rose 15 times from there. I focus on selling losers asap and looking for a story change for winners. Is Elon moving to Mars any time soon? Has another legacy auto company come up with a competitive answer to Tesla? Does Tesla have a huge cost advantage versus the competition? Does Tesla have a years long lead in battery tech? Does Tesla have a vision lead that can't even be measured in years in software and production innovation?
The last question you might want to ask is will you be upset for the rest of your life if Tesla is worth $2000 in 2-3 years, or $1000 in 2 months if there is a short squeeze when Tesla is added to S&P 500? I sold 5% around 350 in a small fund and invested in 2 Ark funds. My logic was sound, but seeing what I've already lost, it makes it a lot easier to avoid selling any additional shares.
Tesla was in a holding pattern for 3+ years while it grew 3 times in size. It is now on track for consistent earnings and significant free cash flow. It is the fastest growing manufacturer in American history (to my knowledge), surpassing Ford motor in the early 1900's. No one else is making money off of electric cars and Tesla is expanding margins every quarter with every expansion in production. The biggest hit to margins will be when Tesla has enough capacity to meet demand and lowers pricing.
Just my opinion and not advise, but I'm holding for the long term.

 

[JRP3]

This is just silly. My Tesla holdings are over about 70% of my net worth now, I just had to sell some shares to make myself feel better. Now it's only about 69%

 

[StealthP3D]

i just outlined my reasons above. i've only got 1700 shares though, i doubt that makes me a heavy hitter.

Almost to the big double "M"!

 

[LN1_Casey]

As we learned last Thursday and Friday, ignore Max Pain at your peril.

If it drops back down to sub 400 before Q4 earnings, than I bet a lot of us will be adding to our positions.

 

[VValleyEV]

According to this handy little Market Cap watcher, TSLA is getting very close to VW now.
Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

 

[gerebgraus]

OK, I sold all of my most speculative (far out of the money) call options this morning. Thank you, short sellers, for making them so cheap to purchase last year! Still holding the $320's that expire this Friday. If the short-sellers are the sweet darlings I think they are, these will continue to climb before they expire. I just wish I knew how much fuel is in the orbital booster stage of this most excellent Falcon rocket. I'm holding these because I think the ground crew might have filled the fuel tanks beyond what was necessary to hit orbital velocity! And I want to have something to jettison in case we fly too high before Friday rolls around!

You love your money too much! We will see whether this was a smart decision in a month. (and congratulations.)

 

[Chickenlittle]

I didn't respond to that post, just the "is it peaking" one. Whatever floats your boat.

For what its worth, late last week would've triggered that I think. But, sure, if the stock were to tank a stop loss helps. Market makers love them some stop loss orders.

A stop loss doesn’t always help. A flash crash can trigger a sale with a sudden loss at greater than 2%. Having the stop loss doesn’t guarantee you will sell at 2% down only that you will sell when it drops at least 2%. A false rumor like missle heading to Hawaii could trigger a flash crash that immediately recovers

 

[Ameliorate]

Still hoping to re-buy your shares under sold price $490?

I don't have the nerve for selling shares anymore.

It feels bad enough to be wrong on a trade don't you think? I know I got hooped by the "100k PD report" and "missing" on what was really a great P&D. I dropped from 20k to 3k and went into earnings with that, been playing 3lonmusk style with similar gains but at a starting point of 15%. Left millions on the table. Oh well, congrats to anybody who's done well here, you all deserve it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This is just silly. My Tesla holdings are over about 70% of my net worth now, I just had to sell some shares to make myself feel better. Now it's only about 69%

As of this morning, my TSLA holdings are now as big as my index fund retirement account, which was started 11 years ago and has captured a ton of market growth. Astounding.

I'm already hedged, so I'm not selling anytime soon.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Max Pain: 390.0




/S

Max pain is meaningless
1. Lots of options will be traded before Friday which will change max pain
2. Max pain less effective when higher volume trading during announcements, upgrades and short squeezes

 

[M3Rider]

It feels bad enough to be wrong on a trade don't you think? I know I got hooped by the "100k PD report" and "missing" on what was really a great P&D. I dropped from 20k to 3k and went into earnings with that, been playing 3lonmusk style with similar gains but at a starting point of 15%. Left millions on the table. Oh well, congrats to anybody who's done well here, you all deserve it.

I think that people should have listened more to what @StealthP3D was talking about here on the daily basis.

You don't pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.

So, I'm just repeating it with an example.

 

[UncaNed]

I’m actually starting a new job on Feb 1. What should I tell them???

Tell them to buy and HODL.

 

[dc_h]

Just woke up. Anything happening today? Someone care to give me a recap?

Go back to sleep, nothing to see here.

 

[ChrisH]

This is just silly. My Tesla holdings are over about 70% of my net worth now, I just had to sell some shares to make myself feel better. Now it's only about 69%

lol. It’s times like these I wish I had more than 15 shares.

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm watching the 5-minute chart, every 30 minutes or so, a new wave of pain for shorts.