Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

There are few people less rationale than me

True enough, but let’s not make a contest out of it.

I will try another way of explaining it. When TSLA was $183 a share I was down 34% so around $100,000 under water, and therefore low in confidence and not willing to throw all my liquidity into TSLA.

I get that. You let total strangers, whose job is quite specifically to manipulate you, manipulate you. And the reasons it worked was because of your relationship with money, and that you falsely thought those strangers on Wall Street know how to value Tesla and therefore price TSLA.

Tesla was a jump up and down screaming buy under $300 all 2019. Since then it’s just a standard raise your voice buy.

You’ve done well and congratulations, but it was still an irrational thought process at the time.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.

TeslaStars on Twitter

A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 to go 200km (124 miles).

While happy for Tesla in comparison, this is actually quite sad. This will only slow EV take-up, since Tesla is already tapped out on their production.

 

[Nocturnal]

If this dip is due to the drop in California registrations it might be a good time to buy.

The thought is that demand has peaked but Fremont is maxed out right now. That implies to me that there’s plenty of demand but not enough cars.

I’m in Los Angeles and have three friends & coworkers who bought Model 3s in Q4. All of them took delivery in the last few days of the year in frantic delivery events and all of the cars came straight off the truck from Fremont. This tells me that Tesla doesn’t have a bunch of cars lying around waiting for demand to pick up in California.

Not advice and I’m not an investor.

The data seems to be incorrect due to the normal later in quarter deliveries and lag between registrations and deliveries, but even if it were true, they sold more than they made. Tesla doesn't need CA to make their business work anymore.

 

[avoigt]

Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.

TeslaStars on Twitter

A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 to go 200km (124 miles).

To compare, you pay 0,33 €/kWh at a Tesla Supercharger in Germany. Ionity is therefore 140% more expensive while they provide energy from the average German mix including coal energy while Tesla is green or renewables.

Furthermore usually Ionity has only 4 stalls and many report that they often do not work and if you call them they can't help.

The issue with Ionity is the are build as a profit center not as a cost center like Tesla Superchargers.

Finally if you drive a Taycan the navigation does not even give you a mal with the Ionity locations like in a Tesla where you see the SC, not to mention that the distance and range to it is not calculated.

 

[KarenRei]

While happy for Tesla in comparison, this is actually quite sad. This will only slow EV take-up, since Tesla is already tapped out on their production.

We really don't talk about this enough. Combined with the fact that Teslas are more efficient than the "competition", depending on which cars you assume, how much driven per year, what the ratio of home to public charging is, etc, the Tesla would save something in the ballpark of $1k USD per year on charging.

 

[EVDRVN]

If this dip is due to the drop in California registrations it might be a good time to buy.

The thought is that demand has peaked but Fremont is maxed out right now. That implies to me that there’s plenty of demand but not enough cars.

I’m in Los Angeles and have three friends & coworkers who bought Model 3s in Q4. All of them took delivery in the last few days of the year in frantic delivery events and all of the cars came straight off the truck from Fremont. This tells me that Tesla doesn’t have a bunch of cars lying around waiting for demand to pick up in California.

Not advice and I’m not an investor.

I was in a SD showroom and there were no cars on the floor, empty space with just the kids car in the middle so they sold those too.

 

[Tyler34]

I asked a similar question about exercising options vs selling and buying stock. The answer was overwhelmingly that it is almost always better to sell the option and then buy the stock. If I find the link to the thread I will add it here later.

Unless you need to exercise to defer taxes or get to long term vs short term capital gains

 

[neezer]

To compare, you pay 0,33 €/kWh at a Tesla Supercharger in Germany. Ionity is therefore 140% more expensive while they provide energy from the average German mix including coal energy while Tesla is green or renewables.

Furthermore usually Ionity has only 4 stalls and many report that they often do not work and if you call them they can't help.

The issue with Ionity is the are build as a profit center not as a cost center like Tesla Superchargers.

Finally if you drive a Taycan the navigation does not even give you a mal with the Ionity locations like in a Tesla where you see the SC, not to mention that the distance and range to it is not calculated.

Also, despite Taycans apparently coming with 3 years free charging at Porsche dealerships (? I think?) - even if so, I can imagine most stops there to hope to charge will be met with no-go; dealership cars will be hooked up "Sorry you'll have to wait" or they'll have like a 911 or Cayenne parked in the spot and by the time they move it for you, it's 20 mins later...

 

[winfield100]

Exactly the problem with retail buyers.

How many get sucked into ARK's $6000 a share and think this is some sort of lottery ticket and don't realize this stock has a lot of volatility?

OT, way OT
@sparcs
Well, me for one,
Ya see, MSFT, which I bought 100 shares way long ago and sold at a tidy profit
(and a bunch of others)
Is NOT worth $161.05/share
For me, it’s actually worth $47,545/share
Due to a 288:1 series of splits (total)
I’m patient, finally, and am accumulating TSLA slowly on a fixed income.
My kids or grandkids or ggrandkids May inherit a grubstake to buy a spot on a Mars colony ship,
unless they finally get neuralink working, in which case.......

 

[EVDRVN]

Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.

TeslaStars on Twitter

A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 to go 200km (124 miles).

Just consider if gas was sold at its real cost/price.

 

[Tyler34]

Wish this year's ira contributions would settle already. Could've got 12 shares instead of 11. First world problems.

 

[hobbes]

While happy for Tesla in comparison, this is actually quite sad. This will only slow EV take-up, since Tesla is already tapped out on their production.

8 EUR per session was cheaper for my Model 3 than Superchargers and less crowded, too ...

 

[SOULPEDL]

My stress (and excitement) seems to come on strong when the stock goes up. When it's down, I get over it fast, then I'm more relaxed because I know I missed any opportunity to sell already - so I stop debating with myself.

I was only thinking to sell about 5-10%... for several weeks now! For today the correction is welcomed and I can, once again, forget about selling anything. (I know, I think about it too much, then never sell in the end anyway.)

Still way past my wildest dreams for this point in time.

 

[wipster]

So... profit taking or too much too soon?

I knew I shouldn't have slept in late...

 

[Fact Checking]

My stress (and excitement) seems to come on strong when the stock goes up. When it's down, I get over it fast, then I'm more relaxed because I know I missed any opportunity to sell already - so I stop debating with myself.

I was only thinking to sell about 5-10%... for several weeks now! For today the correction is welcomed and I can, once again, forget about selling anything. (I know, I think about it too much, then never sell in the end anyway.)

Still way past my wildest dreams for this point in time.

If you have 100s of shares you can consider selling a call option during run-ups, for a strike price you'd sell for anyway. Worst-case you'll get exercised at that price, and can keep the premium too - which increases your take-profit price substantially.

If the stock ends up dropping 5-10% you can buy back the call option at ~half the price.

 

[TradingInvest]

As someone who has worked on the Street for a number of years, it's clear that you really don't understand of how sell-side research coverage works. Some of the best analysts in the game have no advanced degrees or experience in the industries they analyze and there's nothing wrong with that. Analysts spend decades researching an industry with access to C-level management and the most expensive consultants in that particular industry. Additionally, there are different motivations when it comes to reasons to upgrade or downgrade a stock - what is the risk profile on the upside vs downside? how are comparative returns for this particular stock vs. other stocks? among many other things.

TSLAgang shouldn't find it offensive just because an analyst downgrades a stock. It doesn't mean he/she thinks the stock or company is a piece of sht...

I'll just leave it at that.

and FYI i'm a TSLA bull and own multiple cars. I also have the entire report.

Stock market is by far the largest casino in the world, leveraged online gambling is legal (stock and option trading). It's natural for large players to do all sorts of things for their own advantage, including illegal activities as long as they can get away with it.

For example, recently lots of buyers saw their TSLA call options went up 10 fold, 20 fold, 50 fold. Think about those who sold the Calls. They are on the hook to lose billions. A few days ago I was thinking with so many Calls expiring on Jan 17th, Call sellers will desperately push down the stock before expiration. I was waiting to see who will show their hands.

First, Dominion Cross-Sell report says CA Q4 registration is down almost 50%. That alone is just a piece of data, nothing wrong, but the manipulation is in the details. They made it sound like sales is down half. Then Morgan Stanley came out with this downgrade. If GS sold those Calls, they would issue a downgrade too.

People may ask, it's a free market, everyone can say whatever they want. I normally support that view. The problem is some players have so much power they can manipulate the market for their own advantage. It's not a level playing field for retail gamblers. I don't hold weekly options, but think about those who get hurt by the manipulation.

 

[NicoV]

Ionity ends its introductory pricing of 8 euro/charge session, as of februari 79 eurocent/kWh: IONITY - WHERE & HOW

Priced to NOT sell.
Tesla is around 23 cents/kWh IIRC.

 

[dakh]

I asked a similar question about exercising options vs selling and buying stock. The answer was overwhelmingly that it is almost always better to sell the option and then buy the stock. If I find the link to the thread I will add it here later.

Huuuuh??? In a tax sheltered account maybe if you care about the little time value left and think the price won't go up, yes. Otherwise, no. Exercising an option is not a taxable event from what I know, seeking it definitely is. Fidelity will exercise on expiry, in fact they'll send you messages a few days in advance to make sure you know it's coming and have enough cash to do it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.

TeslaStars on Twitter

A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 to go 200km (124 miles).

Wow, 88 cents? Must be a lot of tax in there? Or they're trying to get a ludicrous ROI from infrastructure? Ya, stupid move for them, makes that table of "Overall Cost of Ownership" with Tesla look great!

For comparison, I'm charging at home rates best in the country... $0.0575/kWh (SRP in Az). There is a monthly $23 fee for having a service, but still. (I think they expect me to give power back... so far not happening with PWs.)

 

[capster]

Hey, remember "Covfefe Capital"? The TSLAQ guy who made that "model" that predicted terrible sales in Q3, which they were all salivating over?

Mark Johnston (@CovfefeCapital) | Twitter

View attachment 500776
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@Paul91701736 PAUL! PAUL! Come quick, heresy in the ranks!


Actually, a lot of people in TSLAQ realize that the story is BS. But they're more than happy to spread and take advantage of it nonetheless.

View attachment 500778

Heavens! Even more fake shares and someone’s trying to blow smoke up my backside again!

Oh me! Oh my! Whatever shall I do?

Hint: The answer is always hold:

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/whered-your-money-go/3438962