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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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CNBC - Thursday:


This is interesting - thanks for posting @Curt Renz - So Eddie Yoon makes his case for Tesla as a $1 Trillion company...........and it is based solely on Tesla Motors and Software valuations. Not once does he mention Tesla Energy.

I don't need to remind anyone here that T = TM + TE. And there are those of us that sincerely believe that Tesla Energy will be valued at least as much as Tesla Motors.....or perhaps even more in the next 5 - 10 years. Solar + Storage is already stranding natural gas and coal plants everywhere, and the Virtual Grid is coming! So what does that mean when you remind Eddie and Cathy Wood/ARK that TE is accelerating up the S-curve as we speak? Does it mean that TSLA is at least a $2 Trillion company when people finally get around to valuing it as TM + TE ? Remember ARK is still stuck in the TM-only mode and estimating $4,000 - $6,000 on that model. Things are shaping up for us to see ARK prices in the next 5 years and TM + TE prices (at least double the ARK & Eddie Yoon model) in the 5 - 10 year range.
 
CNBC - Thursday:

Love that he correlated ownership with monthly subscriptions, that's a big one most analyst miss. I wish he had gone a step further and spoken to solar panels getting a look for Tesla owners with homes. I think all of us with a house have done the math atleast once or twice on Tesla's solar business.

Overall he spoke well, did his research and I'm glad his conclusion is that the Tesla story is just beginning, what this company can and will be in the future is one of the most important companies in the world. I believe it will be valued as such.

Edit: appears Paracelsus and I came to write a similar response haha
 
I've found the long-term perspective and 10X goal very helpful in terms of staying relaxed and not making emotional decisions through the ups and downs in the share price. I do still enjoy the ups much more than the downs.:)

Ups are definitely more enjoyable than the downs. :)

It's also extremely helpful that Elon laid out the first 10x goal with his 2012 CEO incentive plan, and he's also laid out the second 10x goal with his 2018 CEO incentive plan.

If Elon/Tesla deliver, then we're looking at a 100x gain... purely on just holding common stock.

It's mind-blowing to think of a 100x gain on common stock within 15-16 years.
 
28/hr is supposed to be the designed capacity.
Yeah, that 'design capacity' you refer to was already exceeded back in December. The production manager of GF3 said this to Globaltimes.cn

"Song Gang, production director of the Tesla Gigafactory 3, said that the factory produces 28 or more Model 3s every hour and works about 10 hours each day, which means that it produces more than 1,000 cars each week.

He added that the factory will be able to produce 3,000 cars per week "in the near future."​

With 2 shifts working 10 hrs for just 6 days per week, an hrly run rate of 28 is already more than 3K cars per week. That 28/hr run rate may be their initial goal during the rampup, but that would not be the plant's design capacity.

At the 2019 AGM in June, Elon said GF3 capacity would be 500K/yr, and ultimately up to 1M per year, but its also good to build capacity at other locations in such a large country as China.

That likely maps out to be 5k/wk for both the Models 3 + Y lines for 500K/yr capacity after Phase 2 is complete, then optionally duplicating the lines inside each GA hall to move to 1M/yr as demand warrants. Keep in mind, GF3 is also located in the Lingang free trade "special area" and is intended to build cars for greater Asia, and huge market.

Cheers!
 
This is what is presented as "news" recently.

"Tesla faces two challenges that Toyota does not. The head of Subaru recently said the market for mass electric car sales probably will not start until the end of the decade. If so, Tesla faces headwinds"

That is a exert from a article on 247wallst.com under the headline "Why Tesla will never be the world's largest car company"

Why Tesla Will Never Be the World’s Most Valuable Car Company
What they didn't say is that the decade they were referring to was the one that just ended.
 
Well, to play shorter's advocate (not that I advocate shorting...) they firmly believe it is Tesla that is hiding facts from investors and the government, and think sudden acceleration affects 500,000 cars. So they have the same gut feelings about Tesla that we have with the aforementioned diesel companies.

But we know the shorts are wrong...right?

No, the short sellers don't believe that 500k Tesla's have a technical problem with Sudden Unintended Acceleration and that Tesla is knowingly hiding this. They just pretend to, in order to distort the public opinion on Tesla.

This cannot be compared to Diesel-gate where at least one court of law have handed out a prison sentence to a person responsible for this crime,
Oliver Schmidt (engineer) - Wikipedia
 
Frankfurt trading opened with TSLA slightly up to €521 ($574), on low volume:

upload_2020-1-24_8-27-4.png

Macros are slightly up compared to yesterday's closing.
 
How Profitable Could Tesla Be in Q4?
TMIO Tesla "The Market is Open"

"Elon Musk will announce Tesla's Q4 earnings results in about a week. We analyse and estimate what could happen in the quarter and compare this to the analyst estimates. Model 3, Model S, and Model X have added up to 112,000 deliveries in this quarter, which is a record for Tesla. Elon Musk may have a surprise for analysts who are on the low side."​


TL;dw Est'd $1.89/share GAAP (diluted) EPS on $7.3B in Revenue
 
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28/hr is supposed to be the designed capacity. This was the test that was done and we heard reports about.

This is about 560/day (2, 10 hr shifts), ~4k/wk or 50k/quarter.

We don't know what the exact limiting factor is - bodyline or paint shop or press etc or whether all of them have been designed for this capacity.

ps : The fact that Tesla has not released order numbers for either MIC 3 or Model Y tells me, the numbers are rather smallish. Unlike Model 3 or CT. So, its possible Tesla thought the initial demand might be 3k/wk and built it that way. The contract with Shanghai government specifies this number.

Yeah, that 'design capacity' you refer to was already exceeded back in December. The production manager of GF3 said this to Globaltimes.cn

"Song Gang, production director of the Tesla Gigafactory 3, said that the factory produces 28 or more Model 3s every hour and works about 10 hours each day, which means that it produces more than 1,000 cars each week.

He added that the factory will be able to produce 3,000 cars per week "in the near future."​

With 2 shifts working 10 hrs for just 6 days per week, an hrly run rate of 28 is already more than 3K cars per week. That 28/hr run rate may be their initial goal during the rampup, but that would not be the plant's design capacity.

At the 2019 AGM in June, Elon said GF3 capacity would be 500K/yr, and ultimately up to 1M per year, but its also good to build capacity at other locations in such a large country as China.

That likely maps out to be 5k/wk for both the Models 3 + Y lines for 500K/yr capacity after Phase 2 is complete, then optionally duplicating the lines inside each GA hall to move to 1M/yr as demand warrants. Keep in mind, GF3 is also located in the Lingang free trade "special area" and is intended to build cars for greater Asia, and huge market.

Cheers!


My guess is that all of Tesla's new production lines are designed for 28 cars per hour or 4.7k per week on three 56 hour shifts.
It makes sense to have a standardised design and get economies of scale in their production line equipment manufacturing.
However, so far I guess Tesla have only ordered supplier parts for 3.4k per week or two 60 hours shifts.
The second shift is reportedly starting at GF3 in mid February.
They likely will increase orders and move to 3 shifts once they have built demand (via word of mouth marketing) to the necessary level.
Model Y should be built in the separate building currently under construction, but may possibly share some parts of the line such as paint shop and stamping. I expect Model Y line will be the same design specs, however they may put in initial orders for ~5k per week supplier parts and aim to rapidly move to 3 shifts for Model Y. MIC Y is likely running around 1 year behind MIC Model 3 production timeline.

This 28 cars per hour design capacity might have been the same design capacity for much of the Fremont Model 3 line (at least for the body line, the most capital expensive part). At Fremont they pushed this equipment past design specs on to 7k per week, so they may be hoping they can push the GF3 lines past their design capacity on to 7k per week eventually too.

So I think Fremont Y line, GF3 3 line, GF3 Y line, GF4 Y line & GF4 3 line may all be 4.7k per week design spec.

However for GF3 Model 3 they are targeting 2 shifts and ~3k per week.
For GF3 Y they are targeting 3 shifts and ~5k per week.
For Fremont Y they are initially hitting 2 shifts and ~3k per week before Paint expansion is complete. As quickly as possible after that (likely within 2020) they will aim to add the 3rd shift and reach ~5k per week and after that they will more slowly push the line past design specs on to ~7k per week.
 
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say.com still hasn't added my brokerage, this is a year since I contacted their support and they said they'd do it...

I feel ya. My EU broker where I hold my core share position (80%+ of my shares atm) can't be connected to say.com either.

I can only connect my Interactive Brokers account, which is mostly long term call options and only a small number of shares.

We can only hope they'll expand in the future.
 
say.com still hasn't added my brokerage, this is a year since I contacted their support and they said they'd do it...

I had the same issue, and the same response. Last two previous quarters I attempted again, but I've since given up. Might be easier to open another account on, like, Robinhood, buy one stock, then try to register using that other account.

Edit: I currently use E-trade, as an American, with American information, so I don't know if it's EU locked or not, or if it's just a sometimes glitchy site.
 
say.com still hasn't added my brokerage, this is a year since I contacted their support and they said they'd do it...
Well, I really wouldn`t hold my breath. I am with the Hungarian subsidiary of KBC, a big European bank form Belgium. Last year (April 22) Say.com replied to me sharing that many have requested for this brokerage to be added so they are working with them. We are 9 months later and still nothing.