Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mokuzai]

Well I should have some pretty happy Tesla employees over at the house tomorrow for my 2x Powerwall install!

 

[Singuy]

Jesus Tesla is crashing my robinhood app..lol.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This should be renamed the "Tesla Tell Overture"!

Dan

 

[chiller]

Well I should have some pretty happy Tesla employees over at the house tomorrow for my 2x Powerwall install!

Happy... Or hung over?

 

[ammulder]

Hey "fact checking", not to rain on our parade, but that's capacity, not projection. the projection is "For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units"

Yes, but the capacity increase he quoted is correct... from p6:

"In Q4, the annualized total vehicle production rate in Fremont was just over 415,000 units, about the same rate as the factory under NUMMI reached in its peak year of 2006"
​

415 -> 740 = +78% capacity

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I know its the forgotten, boring thing...but I would love to hear more details on the production of the semi in the investor call. Feels like about time they started seriously working on that. I was hoping for more than the 'some deliveries this year' comment tbh. Maybe cybertruck pre-orders and Y pre-orders have pushed the semi back?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I just developed a huge crush on Tasha. DM me if you read these forums?

I sold a few trading shares prior to the bell because I have a loan I want to payoff. So glad I held on to the other 95% of my investment.


Capacity / = will produce.

What the **** took you so long?

 

[ZeApelido]

I just developed a huge crush on Tasha. DM me if you read these forums?

I sold a few trading shares prior to the bell because I have a loan I want to payoff. So glad I held on to the other 95% of my investment.


Capacity / = will produce.

Is that the internet EV enthusiast version of a cat-call??

 

[Fobble]

Not sure what firm is CFRA, but this is a new report they just posted after the Q4 earning report: HOLD -> SELL

Their conclusion on SELL rating is hi-lited in red. CAPEX on Germany factory blah, blah. WTF, the factory has not even got off the ground yet, and they already start picking on it.

CFRA LOWERS OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC. TO SELL FROM HOLD
5:05 pm ET January 29, 2020 (CFRA) Print
We raise our 12-month price target by $40 to $440, based on a '21 P/E of 35.9x. Our EPS estimates increase by $1.10 to $7.30 for '20 and by $1.25 to $12.25 for '21. TSLA posts Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.14 vs. $1.93 (+10.9%), ahead of the $1.76 consensus. The beat was on the top line, as total revenue of $7.38B compared to the $7.08B consensus. TSLA's adjusted automotive gross margin contracted 230 bps to 20.9%, but was up 10 bps sequentially. TSLA said 2020 vehicle sales should comfortably exceed 500,000 units, implying a 36% increase from the 367,656 units sold in 2019. Shares traded higher after-hours, but we continue to see significant risks related to the China factory ramp-up, as well as rising EV competition from automakers still eligible for the full federal tax credit in the U.S. TSLA also did not provide detail regarding capex related to its new factory in Germany. We view the stock's current risk/reward as unfavorable at current levels and maintain a Sell.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but just bought a few more at $649.

Could still be a 10 bagger.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hey "fact checking", not to rain on our parade, but that's capacity, not projection. the projection is "For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units"

Of course, that's what I wrote - lower 2020 deliveries is natural as they've got to ramp to 740k/year first!

Btw., haven't seen this mentioned here yet, but they also guided this about GF3:

Shanghai

We have been gradually ramping local production of battery packs since late
Q4 2019. The rest of the Model 3 manufacturing processes are running as
expected. Due to strong initial customer response in China, our goal is to
increase Model 3 capacity even further using existing facilities.​

But in the table they listed the old 150k/year target. They didn't list the Shanghai Model Y capacity, nor the Shanghai Model 3 capacity increase yet.

I.e. the 740k/year run-rate will likely be exceeded!

​

 

[KarenRei]

My phone's battery is going to die during work tomorrow from me spending every spare second working to roll my call spreads up.

 

[Krugerrand]

ATH close was 572 USD on Jan. 22nd. Today we might not get a new ATH during regular trading hours, but we might go with an ATH close into ER. That's a lot of expectations to fulfill...

You were real close with that call. Real close.

 

[woodisgood]

I just developed a huge crush on Tasha. DM me if you read these forums?

I sold a few trading shares prior to the bell because I have a loan I want to payoff. So glad I held on to the other 95% of my investment.


Capacity / = will produce.

LOL, just now?? Both those ladies from ARK make me swoon hahaha. Don't tell my wife.

In all seriousness though, ARK has been very influential in my becoming a super bull, along with this forum.

 

[Fact Checking]

Wow, 3.4m shares traded in after-hours already!

 

[thait84]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but just bought a few more at $649.

Could still be a 10 bagger.

Just out of curiosity, what brokerage do you use to do extended hours trading?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So next leg up is another $30 to $680 in about 10 minutes?

 

[M3Rider]

Is that a price change?

Yes, +$1k.

This is in line with 3 price increase couple of months back, delayed update.

 

[SMAlset]

Yes, but the capacity increase he quoted is correct... from p6:

"In Q4, the annualized total vehicle production rate in Fremont was just over 415,000 units, about the same rate as the factory under NUMMI reached in its peak year of 2006"
​

415 -> 740 = +78% capacity

NUMMI didn’t have tents...

 

[SpaceCash]

My phone's battery is going to die during work tomorrow from me spending every spare second working to roll my call spreads up.

Weak long

Jk Karen ilu