Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

It's not like they have any meaningful effort at all before Tesla comes along. Without Tesla they would give a finger to governments around the world asking for green cars. Now that Tesla is here they can't do that anymore. The argument "only Tesla can build EV" doesn't fly as high as "EVs are simply not viable".

They deserve to die.

"Hello, my name is Inigo Montoya.
You killed my father.
Prepare to die."

 

[KarenRei]

...and with that .3% you were able to buy a snowmobile, snowblower, fur lined coat and a new pair of mukluks, right? LOL!

Dan

Diversified, not cashed out Just put a little cash into a nickel startup I'd been eyeing. Might ultimately bring it up to a whopping 1% or so.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon did say something recently when asked about Model Y that Sandy Munro would probably be happy with some of the production changes. No doubt this would be one of them.

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Munro’s analysis of Tesla engineering is accurate, both pro & con. I think he will appreciate some elements of the Model Y body design."

2:55 PM · Jan 17, 2020​

 

[dw4ngg]

Anyone else get bored and buy 2/21 700 calls?

 

[KarenRei]

Second part of the Elon interview will be going live in a couple hours. It's now live for Third Row patreon subscribers.

Cyber Pope Of Muskanity on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Well we know the MM's are desperate to keep below $650 for the end of the week, but they've definitely been given an assist by the shitty macro today.

Come on, get on with it!

 

[Nocturnal]

Diversified, not cashed out Just put a little cash into a nickel startup I'd been eyeing. Might ultimately bring it up to a whopping 1% or so.

Did you bring enough to share with the whole class Karen? I am looking for my next Tesla.

MOD: You are welcome, if you care to, to share it on the "Other Tech Stock to Consider" thread. Discussion of it will not belong or be welcome here.

 

[LJS22]

Former board member steve was just on CNBC to speak on Tesla...he’s awesome. Nails it so simply every time. Completely ignored the bear and just gave a straightforward simple vision of how Tesla’s story will unfold.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well we know the MM's are desperate to keep below $650 for the end of the week, but they've definitely been given an assist by the shitty macro today.

Come on, get on with it!

I'm hoping there is a sentiment that says "ok, not sure about Tesla, but where else do I park my money?" Stocks like Apple went on a crazy tear and probably won't run much farther in 2020. Tesla looks like it has lots of room though.

 

[ZenMan]

Anyone else get bored and buy 2/21 700 calls?

No, but I bought $750s.

 

[JRP3]

Weak long that I am I sold some today at $645+ Like ARK I need to keep TSLA below a certain percentage of my portfolio and it was getting too close to 100% . It's still too close, but I can live with that.

I have some bad news to report.... I've gone bearish on Tesla. Sorry, guys - I've gone off and sold off a chunk of my assets to diversify my portfolio.

I'm now only 99,7% in Tesla.

Hardcore Tesla longs bailing, TSLAQQQQQQ!!!1111

 

[X Fan]

Former board member steve was just on CNBC to speak on Tesla...he’s awesome. Nails it so simply every time. Completely ignored the bear and just gave a straightforward simple vision of how Tesla’s story will unfold.

Is there a video available? Thanks

 

[Artful Dodger]

Am I the only one that expected more swings this morning? Seems calm...so is this possibly a new baseline?

If by 'baseline', you mean the best price for MMs with tomorrow's Options expiries, then, 'yes'.

Cheers!

 

[Green Pete]

I owe you a beer, in fact a crate of beer - even better at the time were $1 2021 650's, which I bought 10 of (unfortunately sold 5 a few weeks back), but still holding 5 - they're worth serious money now and without your heads-up I would have been totally oblivious.

So a YUGE THANK YOU!!

I don't have anywhere near the depth of knowledge some individuals on this forum possess but I'm very happy about having been able to make some people's days with this.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thoughts on what Tesla will announce on battery day in April & how Tesla’s future battery strategy will come together:

• Use cell supply from Panasonic/LG/CATL to bridge to ramp of in-house cell production (possibly towards ~90GWh contracted from these three suppliers).
• Announce that in-house cell production has just started (Apr-20) on a small scale (likely for Semi or Plaid Model S), with plans to ramp significantly in 2021 (potentially for all future new capacity from 2021).
• Announce a roadmap to reach 2TWh of annual in-house battery cell+module+pack production capacity by 2030. Enough for ~20 million annual EV sales and ~750GWH annual stationary battery storage sales.

Possible relatively short term technology breakthroughs:

• Tesla will apply agile development to its in-house cell manufacturing as it does everything else - so flexibility for rapid upgrades and iterations of the process to accelerate cost experience curves.
• Use Maxwell dry electrode tech to reduce manufacturing cost and footprint.
• Maxwell dry electrode tech leads to better physical properties, in particular allowing thicker cathodes (higher cathode % per cell) & possibly new chemistries.
• Move to use of single crystal cathodes - possibly helped by Maxwell process/other in-house R&D. This was a big part of the 1 million mile cells tested by Dahn.
• Use very carefully selected electrolyte additives following Dahn research.
• Highly automated manufacturing process to reduce staffing bottlenecks to production ramp.
• Tesla Hibar designs systems for electrolyte insertion during the cell manufacturing process.
• Combine all this with further in-house developed cell IP and possibly third party licensed tech. (Remember there are many steps in cell manufacturing and Maxwell/Hibar are only part of this)
• Reduce cathode kg per kWh to reduce raw material cost
• Next generation in-house module/pack lines for continued reduced cost & capex.
• Build a huge factory to build in-house cell/pack manufacturing equipment at scale (the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine) - significantly reducing capex per GWh capacity

Possible Longer term breakthroughs:

• Integrated cell & pack design & manufacturing process to reduce footprint & cost.
• Dahn lithium metal anode allows for much thinner anode, higher energy density & longer electrode life (at the expense of shorter electrolyte life).
• Replaceable electrolyte design to extend lithium metal anode battery life. Develop Hibar machines for easy electrolyte replacement in service centres.
• Dahn research is used to eliminate cobalt from the cathode leaving just Nickel Aluminium or Nickel Manganese.

Note these are all just possibilities (based on acquisitions, press leaks, published scientific papers, patents & speculation):
These various steps & incremental improvements may or may not be introduced once they have been proven ready for affordable mass manufacturing.

Some things I thing would help accelerate and de-risk Tesla’s battery cell ramp plans:

• Buy Panasonic’s GF1 business for cell manufacturing employee experience (who can be used to train new employees on Tesla’s cell lines) and other cell IP.
• Buy/build Cathode powder manufacturing expertise (currently Panasonic mostly uses Sumitomo). Cathode powder is likely ~20% premium to its raw material constituents & the process can be key to cell properties.
• Buy Nickel Sulphate & lithium carbonate/hydroxide processor expertise - this will be a huge % of cell cost & Tesla’s plans require ~10x the current Nickel sulphate & Lithium market size.
• Buy other suppliers in the cell manufacturing chain

Tesla cannot trust & rely on third parties to deliver such critical components of its business plan, particularly when the metals market leaders do not believe in an EV transition as aggressive as Tesla is targeting.

I don't hear much on recycling Tesla batteries. Cheaper than mining the materials?

 

[Rashomon]

Kk mom in

Thoughts on what Tesla will announce on battery day in April & how Tesla’s future battery strategy will come together:

• Use cell supply from Panasonic/LG/CATL to bridge to ramp of in-house cell production (possibly towards ~90GWh contracted from these three suppliers).
• Announce that in-house cell production has just started (Apr-20) on a small scale (likely for Semi or Plaid Model S), with plans to ramp significantly in 2021 (potentially for all future new capacity from 2021).
• Announce a roadmap to reach 2TWh of annual in-house battery cell+module+pack production capacity by 2030. Enough for ~20 million annual EV sales and ~750GWH annual stationary battery storage sales.

I think it's likely pilot lines for Tesla cells have been running some time now. It takes a lot of testing to be sure a cell is ready for multi-year automotive use. And I think we've already seen some of these -- the plaid Model S's running in Germany were likely running cells and packs intended for production later this year. I would also bet that Dahn/Tesla had already confirmed the Maxwell dry process would work prior to the Maxwell purchase. Tesla (in the person of Staubel) and Musk have had a very healthy skepticism about breakthrough battery tech claims.

The interesting question is where the energy density of the new cells ends up. It's pretty clear that the 2170s for Model 3 traded the possibility of increased energy density for lower cost and lower cobalt. They're holding steady around the 250Wh/kg of prior 18650 cells. I think we'll see an energy density increase, probably to the 300-320Wh/kg range with new Tesla cells. Hence the talk on the conference call on 400-mile range model S's...

 

[Green Pete]

I don't hear much on recycling Tesla batteries. Cheaper than mining the materials?

Is that what JB left to do? Start a battery recycling company? If you can manage it to be cheaper than recycling then the enviornmental impact superiority over ice cars is completely unquestionable.

 

[Driver Dave]

Remember when 420 was a thing?

 

[StealthP3D]

Technically, am I wrong that a 12% range increase ought to enable a few tenths second better 0 - 60? Not that they would unlock that faster acceleration right away.

That's not a given (at all). If the improvement came from more useable battery energy, then no. Drive inverter software tweaks can improve efficiency (and therefore power) but whether that improved range at all would depend upon what part of the torque/rpm curve the efficiency improvements happened. 0-60 mph times are only dependent upon the efficiency at full throttle (peak torque for any given rpm). It's very likely the software was already well optimized in that zone so it's more likely efficiency gains were limited to the zones most relevant to normal drive cycles (lower third of the torque band and lower third of the rpm band). If so, there would be no improvement in 0-60 mph. times.

While the MY details on Tesla.com now show 315 for PYD, 0 - 60 is unchanged at 3.5 s. P3D shows 3.2s and we've heard reports it may be as low as 3.0 in the real world. When I put in reservation for PYD I wasn't thrilled it would give away a full half sec to it's sedan brother. I'm hoping that down the line, in the real world, a PYD will be able to get to 3.2 or better.

My Stealth Model 3 does a 3.0 0-60 mph and that was before it got a slight speed boost with a free OTA update. It's below 3.0 for sure now. Tesla has a long history of underpromising/overdelivering when it comes to 0-60 mph and 1/4 mile times. I think your Performance Model Y will probably be able to hit 3.0 seconds.

 

[Tslynk67]

Any idea what price you're thinking of unloading those 5? I have a GTC order in at $140 but at $120 part of me is screaming "take the money and run!".

I've a $164 sell on them - with that it means I'd get $100k back from the 10 in total (counting the ones I sold for $36 a couple of weeks back), so 9990% return, I think it would be.

Plenty of time to run on these though, so I'm not stressed. Feb 7 $650's are more urgent.

But boy am I kicking myself for not buying more of this 2021's. I could have got 35 if I'd gone "all in" with my play money, then I'd be looking at probably getting $500k out of it - that's a once-in-a-lifetime trade for an oik like me. As it is, it's still spectacular.