Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

At $180, you had a little less than 50% of your original investment. At $645, the guy who shorted at $180 has $-258% of his original “investment”

I tried to convince someone on real Tesla to not short at 180 because it's the dumbest thing ever. His response was "BuT HavE You TESt Drove ThE CaR Bro?" Because my argument was shouldn't you do more research before shorting it at that level?

He was childish and impossible to talk to like the rest of Tslaq. Wonder if he moved back in with his parents by now or ended under a bridge somewhere.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Besides ARK, who’s even attempted to answer that question?

Practically everyone is out of their element when trying to conceptualize Tesla and its future value. EMPIRE. That’s where you *start*. Mark my words.

Yep, Elon's Carnegie, Rockefeller and Ford rolled into one. Here's how you make an empire:
1) Huge potential market (replacement of every ICE vehicle on the planet)
2) Excellent product that people want
3) Emphasis on continuous, rapid growth and innovation
4) Utter lack of competition

Yeah, it’s hard to place a value on this because the number is impossibly large.

 

[Bobfitz1]

That's a significant range increase of around 12 percent. I think weight improvements could only account for 1-2% so where to get 10% improvement?
Maybe 3% improvement could come from motor and software tweaks. So I think you must be right, that's a battery with more useable kWh's.

Not sure I'm right but it seems possible. If there is some improvement in latest old gen batteries my guess is they will announce yet another increase in range for M3, S and X before Battery Investor Day. I would imagine that once they have fully tested out a battery improvement, all the battery production at GF1 moves to it around the same time.

Technically, am I wrong that a 12% range increase ought to enable a few tenths second better 0 - 60? Not that they would unlock that faster acceleration right away.
While the MY details on Tesla.com now show 315 for PYD, 0 - 60 is unchanged at 3.5 s. P3D shows 3.2s and we've heard reports it may be as low as 3.0 in the real world. When I put in reservation for PYD I wasn't thrilled it would give away a full half sec to it's sedan brother. I'm hoping that down the line, in the real world, a PYD will be able to get to 3.2 or better.

 

[obie_fl]

OMG. I feel like WSJ just did a comparison of Amiga versus Atari versus Linux by people who have never used computers before. WTF?

FTFY

FTFY

I thought the Conf Call was pretty good but it really is all about the batteries more so then FSD in the short term. Can't wait to hear what they say on Battery Day. I missed several limit orders last week before the big run up and am kicking myself now. At least my Jan 21 LEAP is doing well. Time to adjust my limit orders up and hopefully accumulate more shares on any dips.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, that’s two pieces of good news that will likely drop during the upcoming Q1 earnings call. Model Y casting machine and subsequent cost reduction and footprint savings. And early deliveries of initial batches on Tesla semi before end of Q2 (that info based on a random trucking company CEO who confirmed that delivery timeframe yesterday after talking to his Tesla rep).

And battery investor day will happen just before Q1 earnings call which will be mind blowing per Elon.

Any other significant surprises that we know about?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where did you get the ~12M shares number? IB is telling me $3.5B-$4B has been traded so far, which would imply a little over 6-7M shares.

You're right, thanks for the correction. I read the "Average Daily Volume" line from this page, lol.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yes, AFAIK ARK increased their 5-year TSLA price target from $4,000 to $6,000.

Yep, for me that’s a lifetime of vacations and a Roadster. I am a man of simple needs.

 

[Highway2Heel]

So, I’m a passionate Tesla (TSLA) fan and investor who believes in the mission, vision, values and purpose of the company.

I’m also an engineer who currently manages operations at a large utility. We have future projects that involve regional cooperation to share water. The program of work is based on better embracing sustainable solutions that improve reliability and resiliency of service to a rapidly growing area. I believe utility scale batteries are an important piece of the puzzle and we have a contractual allotment from our local power generator (the TVA) for distributed energy resources and bypassing them as the provider. The exact percentage isn’t large but it’s large enough to cover the power consumption needed for the project I have in mind.


So, we have the ability to embrace non-grid electricity and battery storage to power some critical water pumping projects to serve the raw water supply needs for a large area that’s growing by leaps and bounds. This area is a complicated area to serve, with things like solar, since we have frequent cloud cover and rain and very strong thunderstorm activity on a perpetual basis. So, to briefly and ineloquently summarize, if you prove it’s viable in the southeastern US, people will definitely take note!


Short of harassing Elon on Twitter (not my style), I’m at a loss for the best way to make a direct connection with Tesla and tap their expertise on making this possibility a reality.

Suggestions?

 

[Zaxxon]

Someone reassure me that this isn't a cause for mild concern:

M3 sales up YoY: 42%
Service centers: 13%
Superchargers: 28%

FWIW, in the past ten days local Denver folks have spotted four (!) new Superchargers in the suburbs, plus we have a new one on I-70 heading to the mountains opening this week or next, plus we have a new service center opening in the next few weeks. I also inquired with a Tesla location across the country about their plans for a service center elsewhere in the state near one of my relatives who would currently have to trek ~3 hours to get to a service center. I was told they are actively scouting locations and hope to open this year.

So I share your concern that service and Superchargers need to start ramping up a bit faster, but I also see (anecdotal, but important in my specific scenarios) evidence that it's happening.

I mean, this is just the past ten days:

70 new stalls opened, 110 more under construction, 22 more permitted (and yes, 10 temporarily closed).

 

[sparcs]

After sleeping on it a night and re-reading the report, I don't feel Q1 will be all that good for Tesla. They cautioned with ramps there is a chance they won't be profitable, and they seem to be timing the battery event around Q1. It might just be too much reading of the tea leaves, but I think we could see the shorts preparing for that last battle in late March/early April. I'm feeling more confident in the company long-term though. It will only be a blip in the long term.

This is a misread on battery day. Tesla is still full on wave delivery out of Fremont which is almost entirely all of their production as GF3 is still ramping. That last month of the Quarter in March is going to be crazy. You don't plan a major presentation at the worst possible time in the quarter when your employees aren't available.

Q1 is up for debate, but it's not going to be bad enough to get me to sell 1 share. Q2 will be around the corner and likely better. I expect Q3 and Q4 are going to be blockbuster quarters where both Model Y and GF3 will start having huge impact. The outlook for 2020 as a whole, even with a difficult Q1, is still way better than 2019.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am impressed by how light their empty wallets are, though.

Can we look on the bright side?

This was probably a very good educational experience for many of them.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's silly to conclude data plans will be expensive simply because it "will have bandwidth constraints". Every technology used to deliver data has bandwidth constraints. Starlink is designed to bring low-cost, low latency broadband services to rural areas.

Obviously, it won't be cheaper than fiber in most cases. But the idea you were responding to is that it might be cheaper for some hilltop locations that are expensive to reach with fiber.

Silly, huh? Just my opinion man. No need to use pejorative words when disagreeing. We shall see in about six months who is right.

5G is meant for high density deployments in cities. There won’t be too many remote hilltop deployments.

Btw, there is a thread in the SpaceX forum for Starlink. Starlink has pretty much zero to do with Tesla stock market discussion.

 

[Nocturnal]

So, we have the ability to embrace non-grid electricity and battery storage to power some critical water pumping projects to serve the raw water supply needs for a large area that’s growing by leaps and bounds. This area is a complicated area to serve, with things like solar, since we have frequent cloud cover and rain and very strong thunderstorm activity on a perpetual basis. So, to briefly and ineloquently summarize, if you prove it’s viable in the southeastern US, people will definitely take note!

Keep us posted. I'm a software consultant for Utility companies myself, mostly on the Meter to Cash side of the house. I'm not surprised that Utilities are slow to innovate but it has been frustrating at the same time.

I assume Tesla has contacts for corporate sales for things like the Megapacks?

Yep, for me that’s a lifetime of vacations and a Roadster. I am a man of simple needs.

Elon is really going to need to ramp up roadster production because I'm sure we aren't the only two people planning on buying one once the shares pass the 5k mark. ​

 

[SMAlset]

One of them told me ~a week ago on twitter that it wasn’t just a couple, it was “a lot”. I asked them to define “a lot” but they immediately stopped responding for some reason...

as any Tesla owner knows you have to actively go into your account and then upgrades and accidentally touch the buy button. Really doubt “ a lot” of people in volume have done this.

 

[JRP3]

Weak long that I am I sold some today at $645+ Like ARK I need to keep TSLA below a certain percentage of my portfolio and it was getting too close to 100% . It's still too close, but I can live with that.

 

[sparcs]

Short of harassing Elon on Twitter (not my style), I’m at a loss for the best way to make a direct connection with Tesla and tap their expertise on making this possibility a reality.

Suggestions?

would the Megapack page be appropriate?

Megapack | Tesla

They have a callback page: Request a Call | Tesla Energy

 

[gluu]

So, I’m a passionate Tesla (TSLA) fan and investor who believes in the mission, vision, values and purpose of the company.

I’m also an engineer who currently manages operations at a large utility. We have future projects that involve regional cooperation to share water. The program of work is based on better embracing sustainable solutions that improve reliability and resiliency of service to a rapidly growing area. I believe utility scale batteries are an important piece of the puzzle and we have a contractual allotment from our local power generator (the TVA) for distributed energy resources and bypassing them as the provider. The exact percentage isn’t large but it’s large enough to cover the power consumption needed for the project I have in mind.


So, we have the ability to embrace non-grid electricity and battery storage to power some critical water pumping projects to serve the raw water supply needs for a large area that’s growing by leaps and bounds. This area is a complicated area to serve, with things like solar, since we have frequent cloud cover and rain and very strong thunderstorm activity on a perpetual basis. So, to briefly and ineloquently summarize, if you prove it’s viable in the southeastern US, people will definitely take note!


Short of harassing Elon on Twitter (not my style), I’m at a loss for the best way to make a direct connection with Tesla and tap their expertise on making this possibility a reality.

Suggestions?

Have you tried Utilities | Tesla ?

 

[StealthP3D]

They must be surprised how everyone that has bought a Tesla must also be in on the fraud. And now it is global in scale. A true world wide conspiracy.

On the contrary. TSLAQ is not surprised we are buying more Tesla's with our stock and option profits - they KNEW all along it was just one giant pyramid scheme.

 

[Nocturnal]

Am I the only one that expected more swings this morning? Seems calm...so is this possibly a new baseline?

 

[sparcs]

Have you tried Utilities | Tesla ?

that seems like a great one too as they have a callback page:

Utilities | Tesla