Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

Guy on CNBC just now said Tesla will return to normal levels with other Auto manufacturers. Someone tried to tell him it’s not just an auto business but he said it doesn’t matter it’s an auto company it’s coming back. History tells him so.

However, he does have a preorder for cybertruck

 

[KarenRei]

I have some bad news to report.... I've gone bearish on Tesla. Sorry, guys - I've gone off and sold off a chunk of my assets to diversify my portfolio.

I'm now only 99,7% in Tesla.

 

[Rarity]

Btw, there is a thread in the SpaceX forum for Starlink. Starlink has pretty much zero to do with Tesla stock market discussion.

Indeed, Starlink is only related to TSLA inasmuch as Jonas now fancies himself a space investment analyst (no kidding!). Apparently, automotive analysis doesn't pay the bills.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gali is not the best analyst for the nuts and bolts of the financials or the technology but he has vision lacking in other analysts. He gets it while many don't. I think he sees the future better than most (again, not in the specifics of the tech or the financial details). And vision matters here more than with most stocks.

Yeah don't get me wrong, I like the kid (yes, he's less than half my age). His enthusiasm is infectious, and he inspires many other young people to get interested in business, investing, and EVs in particular. In this he provides great value and is highly appreciated for the work he does.

But he tends to go off on wild tangents, chasing the first 'skirt' he sees. Case in point, for months he told us how Model Y would definately, has-to-be made a GF1, because that was his pet theory and satisfied his need to be right. In spite of, or consciously discounting, issues like low unemployment rate in the Reno area, high cost / unavailability of water, and need to duplicate existing long-lead facilities already running in Fremont (Stamping press, Paint Shop). If he had ANY experience in manufacturing, he'd know that building Y at Fremont brings it to market YEARS faster than doing it in Sparks, NV.

And that's okay! He's allowed to be wrong! None of us is right all the time, we're all human. Best to admit that when it happens, learn from it, and move forward. Its just that, knowing better, I can not take his word on battery chemistry, costing, manufacturability, or technology pathway...

Those that choose to do will be able to pick up their new Model Y from GF1/Sparks any year now...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Silly, huh? Just my opinion man. No need to use pejorative words when disagreeing. We shall see in about six months who is right.

I didn't say there would be cellular towers using Starlink backhaul. I said your stated reason against it was silly (that because bandwidth was limited, it would be too expensive). All technologies have bandwidth limits and the cost/benefit would be location-specific. The fact that Starlink doesn't have unlimited bandwidth is not reason enough to conclude it would be too expensive for all cellular needs. Lighten up! Are you not happy how well your TSLA positions have performed recently?

And with that, we CLOSE the non-TSLA-related discussion of Starlink. Lots of good Starlink discussion somewhere else...perhaps on the Starlink page?

Delete button hits all further such posts.

 

[henchman24]

This is a misread on battery day. Tesla is still full on wave delivery out of Fremont which is almost entirely all of their production as GF3 is still ramping. That last month of the Quarter in March is going to be crazy. You don't plan a major presentation at the worst possible time in the quarter when your employees aren't available.

Q1 is up for debate, but it's not going to be bad enough to get me to sell 1 share. Q2 will be around the corner and likely better. I expect Q3 and Q4 are going to be blockbuster quarters where both Model Y and GF3 will start having huge impact. The outlook for 2020 as a whole, even with a difficult Q1, is still way better than 2019.

They did the Model Y presentation March 2019 during an important quarter. I see that it is a way to soften some of the news, as you can take a short term hit if the long-term is looking good. Either way, I think the long-term outlook is as solid as it has ever been for Tesla, a dip in Q1 wouldn't change my mind at all.

 

[dl003]

D.L.003 on Twitter
any idea how I can get some responses?

Capture

• dl003
• Jan 30, 2020

 

[willow_hiller]

For anyone interested in those option-chain state-price graphs, one I generated this morning turned out quite interesting:

Tons of statistical outliers below the underlying. I'm interpreting that to mean "Some investors paid hefty premiums hedging against a SP of 600 or less, and options bought since the SP has risen above 600 have proven those to be a lot less valuable than originally thought."

 

[KarenRei]

Someone reassure me that this isn't a cause for mild concern:

M3 sales up YoY: 42%
Service centers: 13%
Superchargers: 28%

Okay, first off, let's include what you omitted:

Supercharger connections (the first actual stat that matters): +34%. Why do you care about the number of Supercharger stations, rather than the number of stalls?
Mobile fleet: +81%

So the # of service centres is only up 13%. But the mobile service fleet growth vastly outpaces vehicle sales growth. I see no problem. They're doing more and more with mobile vehicles these days. Also, the growth in the number of service centres says absolutely nothing about whether they're hiring more people to work at existing service centres. Adding new service centres is just to increase geographic coverage.

Back to Superchargers. Here's the things you're not including:

• Power was upped from 120kW to 145kW (ignoring the relatively small % of V3s out there). In ideal circumstances, that's an extra 20% throughput. In practice, you're probably averaging more like 10% of an increase in throughput. But in general: the sooner you move out a car, the sooner a stall is free.
• Pack preheating as you approach a Supercharger (to accelerate charge rates) is now enabled. This also speeds up Supercharging, and thus frees up stalls.
• Most of the world's Supercharger stations spend most of their time idle. There is no need to increase the density in these areas until they hit their limits; the amount of vehicle growth just moves them from "mostly idle" to "not as idle". Supercharger growth is only needed to A) expand the geographic extent of the network, and B) in areas where the existing network needs more capacity.
• They're now switching to V3 stations. With a 250kW peak and no throttling between "shared stalls", V3 will have much higher throughput per stall than V2.

Overall, I think these numbers are great, all things considered.

ED: Whoa! Just checked Supercharge.info... they're already building in both Macedona and Bulgaria? Awesome! They'll be in Greece and Turkey soon!

 

[Remus]

I agree, the issue though is if this forces ICEs to throw in their towel, will Tesla have accelerated or delayed the advent of sustainable energy? I dont know the answer to this yet, but its actually a crucial question in the grand scheme of things.

Is Tesla paving the way for all to join? Or are they way too far ahead and too quick to even try catching up? From what ICEs are doing (or not) atm, it seems to be the latter unfortunately. I hope I'm very wrong on this one.

I also dont think the big fines for CO2 credits that are or will be imposed on ICE will change their spineless stance on this.

It's not like they have any meaningful effort at all before Tesla comes along. Without Tesla they would give a finger to governments around the world asking for green cars. Now that Tesla is here they can't do that anymore. The argument "only Tesla can build EV" doesn't fly as high as "EVs are simply not viable".

They deserve to die.

 

[Nocturnal]

Guy on CNBC just now said Tesla will return to normal levels with other Auto manufacturers. Someone tried to tell him it’s not just an auto business but he said it doesn’t matter it’s an auto company it’s coming back. History tells him so.

However, he does have a preorder for cybertruck

Amazon just sells books. It should have the same multiple as Barnes and Noble. It's history bro!

D.L.003 on Twitter

any idea how I can get some responses?

Capture

• dl003
• Jan 30, 2020

They are just going to block you. They will take the time to look at your old posts and add you to the list if you aren't 100% anti-Tesla.

I have some bad news to report.... I've gone bearish on Tesla. Sorry, guys - I've gone off and sold off a chunk of my assets to diversify my portfolio.

I'm now only 99,7% in Tesla.

I let paul diversify my portfolio!
@BullishVersionofPaulForTheBlockList
-TeslaFarts​

 

[electracity]

It's a shame he didn't ask a broader question about how Tesla could leverage SpaceEx and Boring Co tech.

It's a shame that Morgan Stanley employs an idiot to make bad Tesla predictions and insights year after year.

The analyst asking about Tesla paying down debt through a stock sale also seems to be auditioning for a junior Adam Jonas role.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Thoughts on what Tesla will announce on battery day in April & how Tesla’s future battery strategy will come together:

• Use cell supply from Panasonic/LG/CATL to bridge to ramp of in-house cell production (possibly towards ~90GWh contracted from these three suppliers).
• Announce that in-house cell production has just started (Apr-20) on a small scale (likely for Semi or Plaid Model S), with plans to ramp significantly in 2021 (potentially for all future new capacity from 2021).
• Announce a roadmap to reach 2TWh of annual in-house battery cell+module+pack production capacity by 2030. Enough for ~20 million annual EV sales and ~750GWH annual stationary battery storage sales.

Possible relatively short term technology breakthroughs:

• Tesla will apply agile development to its in-house cell manufacturing as it does everything else - so flexibility for rapid upgrades and iterations of the process to accelerate cost experience curves.
• Use Maxwell dry electrode tech to reduce manufacturing cost and footprint.
• Maxwell dry electrode tech leads to better physical properties, in particular allowing thicker cathodes (higher cathode % per cell) & possibly new chemistries.
• Move to use of single crystal cathodes - possibly helped by Maxwell process/other in-house R&D. This was a big part of the 1 million mile cells tested by Dahn.
• Use very carefully selected electrolyte additives following Dahn research.
• Highly automated manufacturing process to reduce staffing bottlenecks to production ramp.
• Tesla Hibar designs systems for electrolyte insertion during the cell manufacturing process.
• Combine all this with further in-house developed cell IP and possibly third party licensed tech. (Remember there are many steps in cell manufacturing and Maxwell/Hibar are only part of this)
• Reduce cathode kg per kWh to reduce raw material cost
• Next generation in-house module/pack lines for continued reduced cost & capex.
• Build a huge factory to build in-house cell/pack manufacturing equipment at scale (the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine) - significantly reducing capex per GWh capacity

Possible Longer term breakthroughs:

• Integrated cell & pack design & manufacturing process to reduce footprint & cost.
• Dahn lithium metal anode allows for much thinner anode, higher energy density & longer electrode life (at the expense of shorter electrolyte life).
• Replaceable electrolyte design to extend lithium metal anode battery life. Develop Hibar machines for easy electrolyte replacement in service centres.
• Dahn research is used to eliminate cobalt from the cathode leaving just Nickel Aluminium or Nickel Manganese.

Note these are all just possibilities (based on acquisitions, press leaks, published scientific papers, patents & speculation):
These various steps & incremental improvements may or may not be introduced once they have been proven ready for affordable mass manufacturing.

Some things I thing would help accelerate and de-risk Tesla’s battery cell ramp plans:

• Buy Panasonic’s GF1 business for cell manufacturing employee experience (who can be used to train new employees on Tesla’s cell lines) and other cell IP.
• Buy/build Cathode powder manufacturing expertise (currently Panasonic mostly uses Sumitomo). Cathode powder is likely ~20% premium to its raw material constituents & the process can be key to cell properties.
• Buy Nickel Sulphate & lithium carbonate/hydroxide processor expertise - this will be a huge % of cell cost & Tesla’s plans require ~10x the current Nickel sulphate & Lithium market size.
• Buy other suppliers in the cell manufacturing chain

Tesla cannot trust & rely on third parties to deliver such critical components of its business plan, particularly when the metals market leaders do not believe in an EV transition as aggressive as Tesla is targeting.

 

[ggies07]

Anchor: What is Battery Day, Jim?
Cramer: A day to celebrate batteries, man...

So Jim wants to take the day off as well. Good man good man. I think schools should turn on the live broadcast as well. This will be a momentous day in history and will change the course of humanity forever.

 

[AudubonB]

Slacker.
You should be a small-time lodge owner in Alaska. Takes a lot less time than getting out of bed to slam past that benchmark...it's closer to the decadal mark

I'm liking that @SpaceCash found that post "Useful". From the context, it appears he is taking to heart the admonition "...should be Alaskan lodge owner".

Bring references and a bank portfolio statement, please.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I have some bad news to report.... I've gone bearish on Tesla. Sorry, guys - I've gone off and sold off a chunk of my assets to diversify my portfolio.

I'm now only 99,7% in Tesla.

...and with that .3% you were able to buy a snowmobile, snowblower, fur lined coat and a new pair of mukluks, right? LOL!

Dan

 

[Chickenlittle]

Okay, first off, let's include what you omitted:

Supercharger connections (the first actual stat that matters): +34%. Why do you care about the number of Supercharger stations, rather than the number of stalls?
Mobile fleet: +81%

So the # of service centres is only up 13%. But the mobile service fleet growth vastly outpaces vehicle sales growth. I see no problem. They're doing more and more with mobile vehicles these days. Also, the growth in the number of service centres says absolutely nothing about whether they're hiring more people to work at existing service centres. Adding new service centres is just to increase geographic coverage.

Back to Superchargers. Here's the things you're not including:

• Power was upped from 120kW to 145kW (ignoring the relatively small % of V3s out there). In ideal circumstances, that's an extra 20% throughput. In practice, you're probably averaging more like 10% of an increase in throughput. But in general: the sooner you move out a car, the sooner a space is free.
• Pack preheating as you approach a Supercharger (to accelerate charge rates) is now enabled. This also speeds up Supercharging, and thus frees up spaces.
• The vast majority of the world's Supercharger stations spend most of their time idle. There is no need to increase the density in these areas until they hit their limits; the amount of vehicle growth just moves them from "idle" to "reasonable traffic". Supercharger growth is only needed to A) expand the geographic extent of the network, and B) in areas where the existing network needs more capacity.
• They're now switching to V3 stations. With a 250kW peak and no throttling between "shared stalls", V3 will have much higher throughput per stall than V2.

Overall, I think these numbers are great, all things considered.

ED: Whoa! Just checked Supercharge.info... they're already building in both Macedona and Bulgaria? Awesome! They'll be in Greece and Turkey soon!

Service has changed dramatically. Just had my model3 serviced. Haven’t had a car serviced since we switched to model3 from x and s. Sign in with pad, don’t see service rep (unless you ask to). Pay ahead and sign on pad when you pick up. A lot more efficient.

 

[sparcs]

They did the Model Y presentation March 2019 during an important quarter. I see that it is a way to soften some of the news, as you can take a short term hit if the long-term is looking good. Either way, I think the long-term outlook is as solid as it has ever been for Tesla, a dip in Q1 wouldn't change my mind at all.

Battery day is going to be far more of a technical presentation.

Model Y presentation was basically.... "and here's the Model Y"

 

[Chickenlittle]

Service has changed dramatically. Just had my model3 serviced. Haven’t had a car serviced since we switched to model3 from x and s. Sign in with pad, don’t see service rep (unless you ask to). Pay ahead and sign on pad when you pick up. A lot more efficient.

Btw if interested model3 service $539 includes alignment cleaning break pad covers replacement break fluid, tire rotation (all these not previously covered on routine service) and other routine services/checks. For those who own model3 this service done every two years

 

[Highway2Heel]

Have you tried Utilities | Tesla ?

I just did. Thank you! They have a 500 character limit on inquiries and I used all 500.