Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

I think Tesla's battery improvements are going to be primarily focussed on reducing cost rather than improving customer's features, and there's also room to continue improving the chemistry in the current cells alongside Tesla's next generation product.
I think the 1 million mile battery is primarily useful for Robotaxis, Semi and grid storage.

Is it reasonable to think that the limited number of Semis reported to be slated for delivery in late Q2 (as linked in this thread earlier this week) could be incorporating Tesla's new cells and/or production methods? The timeline lines up reasonably well with the expectation that Battery Day is being held at such a time that any production would be taking place fairly soon thereafter.

 

[Curt Renz]

Here's more with her responses in that thread. Note that the top tweet is the latest, and the bottom tweet is the one that initiated the thread.

View attachment 506372

Andrea S. James on Twitter

According to my large brokerage, many of these new TSLA stock share buyers are millennials. Apparently they are averaging up each payday, as they store TSLA shares away for the long term in retirement accounts. Many of them have just begun earning enough to do this.

 

[ZeApelido]

Everyone, please take a moment to appreciate the biggest monthly candle in Tesla’s history... it’s insane

I'm ready for a menorah of these candles.

 

[Prunesquallor]

With that range, I think you mean "It's a clock for lap time."

With day/date.

 

[avoigt]

Just got the information an hour ago from a well known automaker that does not get enough battery cells/packs for the production hence they had to go down in output and the line is even partly standing while the supplier ask for a lot more money to restart delivery. Crisis meetings are ongoing here at Friday night, CEO is pissed as they did not tell him until a few days ago. Mid Management was shaking because they did not know how to convey the message.

Its what me and many other have predicted and it became true now. BTW, thats not public info and appreciate if that does not leave this forum.

Implications are extremely severe as I do not see that situation to change soon unless you have your own battery tech and production.

All I can hope for is that they start in large scale production in Europe and understand now how critical it is leaving their former wrong strategy. Its silly that they did not see it coming, incredibly dumb.

Tesla will in my opinion not benefit from that as their demand is going through the roof anyway and with lower output from other brands we have lower adoption rate from the broader consumer group.

 

[elasalle]

Have Index funds you cannot trade stocks, and you are waiting for TSLA S&P inclusion - look for funds that have TSLA.
Found one Vanguard Fund (VWUSX) that has TSLA as top 10 holdings. Surely they are others too.
cheers!!

 

[humbaba]

Just got the information an hour ago from a well known automaker that does not get enough battery cells/packs for the production hence they had to go down in output and the line is even partly standing while the supplier ask for a lot more money to restart delivery. Crisis meetings are ongoing here at Friday night, CEO is pissed as they did not tell him until a few days ago. Mid Management was shaking because they did not know how to convey the message.

Its what me and many other have predicted and it became true now. BTW, thats not public info and appreciate if that does not leave this forum.

Implications are extremely severe as I do not see that situation to change soon unless you have your own battery tech and production.

All I can hope for is that they start in large scale production in Europe and understand now how critical it is leaving their former wrong strategy. Its silly that they did not see it coming, incredibly dumb.

Tesla will in my opinion not benefit from that as their demand is going through the roof anyway and with lower output from other brands we have lower adoption rate from the broader consumer group.

while I love getting information -- this is a public forum. Your post is now memorialized in google. edit: just your comment about "not public and appreciate it not leaving the forum"

 

[mejojo]

while I do appreciate EV positive articles sometimes they go a bit too positive, right into what appears to be fantasy land. The electrek article on the Taycan said that 64 kWh cost them $30 at Electrify America, but would cost most people $3 to $6 when charging at home. In the comments he justifies his claim of residential charging cost with $0.05 to $0.10 per kWh in Florida. That sounds a bit... low. I'm in the midwest and have reasonable rates (mine is ~$0.09 / kWh) so I did a quick search for Florida and apparently the average is $0.1142, higher than his range. Hmm.... Also, supposedly, the approximate range of residential electricity in the US is $0.0837 to $0.3734. So his range of cost brackets the lowest residential rate?

Is solar uptake so high in Florida it warrants discounting the utility rate when making this kind of comment? Or is he misrepresenting utility rates? If the later it does no good for EVs.

edit: forgot link Florida Electricity Rates

Electrify America, which is what all non-Tesla EV mfgs are banking on is pretty expensive, especially at high speed charging. This should be highlighted for non-Tesla against much lower Supercharger rates (28c/kwh in CA).

 

[Krugerrand]

C’mon TSLA, give us some pre-Super Bowl fireworks in the last hour of trading.

Ask and ye shall receive, huh?

 

[humbaba]

Electrify America, which is what all non-Tesla EV mfgs are banking on is pretty expensive, especially at high speed charging. This should be highlighted for non-Tesla against much lower Supercharger rates (28c/kwh in CA).

Yeah, it is. But the author is claiming 0.05$ to 0.10$ per kWh residential rates for Florida which is not supported. My concern is not him reporting what Electrify America is charging, but downplaying the cost of charging. Why exaggerate when it is already good?

One reason I can think of is that the Taycan is so thirsty it will be expensive (for an EV) and he is trying to downplay that aspect. But I don't really know why he is making the claim that electricity is cheaper than it is.

 

[elasalle]

Super Bowl Stars Alligned
Ask the Athletes: Hottest new car in NFL: Tesla

Super Bowl stars talk TSLA for free. Porsche paying premium for ADs.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Have Index funds you cannot trade stocks, and you are waiting for TSLA S&P inclusion - look for funds that have TSLA.
Found one Vanguard Fund (VWUSX) that has TSLA as top 10 holdings. Surely they are others too.
cheers!!

Fidelity contrafund

 

[elasalle]

Just got the information an hour ago from a well known automaker that does not get enough battery cells/packs for the production hence they had to go down in output and the line is even partly standing while the supplier ask for a lot more money to restart delivery. Crisis meetings are ongoing here at Friday night, CEO is pissed as they did not tell him until a few days ago. Mid Management was shaking because they did not know how to convey the message.

Its what me and many other have predicted and it became true now. BTW, thats not public info and appreciate if that does not leave this forum.

Implications are extremely severe as I do not see that situation to change soon unless you have your own battery tech and production.

All I can hope for is that they start in large scale production in Europe and understand now how critical it is leaving their former wrong strategy. Its silly that they did not see it coming, incredibly dumb.

Tesla will in my opinion not benefit from that as their demand is going through the roof anyway and with lower output from other brands we have lower adoption rate from the broader consumer group.

I promise I will not share with anyone. But the BOTS might have already picked it up

 

[kbM3]

I believe this Tasha Keeney interview may have already been posted, but I’m sorry to report guys and gals, the first chink in the armor just appeared. She interpreted Elon’s 3 orders of magnitude improvement from autonomous video labeling as a 3X improvement

No one has produced a car that has matched Tesla in efficiency: Analyst

 

[M3Rider]

Everyone, please take a moment to appreciate the biggest monthly candle in Tesla’s history... it’s insane

I also want to take a moment to recognize this post by you on 12/20, sp=$400.

I did not believe it and did not take advantage. Well, my margin is at a level that is somewhat uncomfortable, so I have to fight my urges to buy more.

The post was barely more than a month ago.
What a ride since then.

1 like, 28 finnies, shame on us.

 

[MartinAustin]

Is TSLA still the most-shorted stock, or is that back to AAPL now?

 

[humbaba]

Is TSLA still the most-shorted stock, or is that back to AAPL now?

At the last official date (1/15) it was close, but that would be AAPL.

$TLSA: ~12.939B$
$AAPL: ~12.951B$

edit: most likely $TSLA now as the short covering between official reporting hasn't been declining fast enough to keep the value at risk from rising.

...and check back in two weeks to find out the official answer to your question

 

[dakh]

Yes, I think your observations are right on.

So far I haven't seen this specific wording referenced, (I've probably missed others referencing it), but this, almost throw away comment from Musk during the earnings call, seems to encapsulate what he will be saying in April, and if so, it can't help but move the market:

"So tentatively sort of in the April timeframe, we will do a Battery Day and kind of go through what the challenges are, how do you get from here to, I don't know a couple of thousand gigawatt hours a year or something."

Yea, and the investment related question is, how and when will the news be priced in? The two extremes are: it is only priced in when new battery stuff starts showing up on the balance sheet, or it gets priced in immediately on news release. I think trying to predict that, especially given the previous history of stock moves on release of similar news, is a losing proposition. So I'm thinking, as boring and un-exciting that is, simply staying long and not trying to time when exactly is this priced in might be the best strategy.

 

[avoigt]

Everyone, please take a moment to appreciate the biggest monthly candle in Tesla’s history... it’s insane

It is!

 

[avoigt]

while I love getting information -- this is a public forum. Your post is now memorialized in google. edit: just your comment about "not public and appreciate it not leaving the forum"

I'm fully aware about that.