Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

But TSLA being battery constrained, I can’t see how that could be unless it is way in the future.

Maybe Tesla doesn't see itself battery constrained in the near future or as severely constrained. Maybe willing to sacrifice a little growth in Tesla Energy for not only the the profits but the validation of GM pickups using Tesla powertra

Maybe Panasonic is willing to be more aggressive in its ramp up if Nevada GF is not solely dependent on Tesla increasing sales but splits the risk with GM pickups using large battery packs.

 

[gora321]

Boersenmillionaer.de‏ @premiumbrief
More Tesla #Model3 arrived in Düsseldorf, Germany. Pictures by https://tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?f=73&t=24786&start=1390 …

1:51 PM - 11 Feb 2019
Boersenmillionaer.de on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

Because of shipping and no European ZEV credit scheme Teslas sold in Europe are less profitable than those sold in the USA ( and Quebec which also has a ZEV program).

I'm not sure that's true:

• Model 3 Performance starts at $52,850 in the US.
• €66,100 in Germany with 19% VAT, which is $74,700 with VAT, $62,800 without VAT, $57,060 with the 10% EU import tariffs paid.
• I.e. there's still a gap of $4,200 for transportation costs, which should be more than enough, shipping a car costs about $1,500 I believe, possibly lower in bulk.
• Per Model 3 ZEV income was zero in Q4. Other GHG credit income was around $1.5k per unit - @ReflexFunds might have more accurate estimates.

So in the end EU sales appear to be generating as much margin as U.S. sales.

 

[STARR X]

I think we will see "Maxwell" cells for the new Roadster and the new long range battery pack for the S & X (>120Kwh?), and then work there way down to the 3 and Y.

I think it’s a pretty exciting video. Love the audio from the conference. I’m thinking they will start with Roadster and Semis then work their way down.

 

[SebastianR]

I am still in disbelief regarding Elon's tiny profit statement. Why should the Q4 be the baseline? - why not Q3?
Vins are high and French M3s are selling at a minimum of $60k when Tesla are closing in on making the $35k version profitable.

I learned three things over my years following the musings of EM / the growth of Tesla:
1) Discount time estimates (3 months maybe, 6 moths definitely) and then be positively surprised if they hold (Tesla Battery in South Australia was early, Model 3 deliveries these days are early in Europe)
2) Take everything Elon Musk says literal but be aware that he customizes his message to his audience (i.e. there are aspects he might emphasize / doesn't mention)
3) Tesla's activities are aimed at their mission and not really aimed at satisfying investors, employees, etc. If investors are involved, that's ALWAYS to further the mission, never to achieve a (short-term) investment goal on their behalf.

Tesla could/might have achieved bigger Q1 profitability by giving specific guidance at about Q3 level-production and stopping deliveries to Europe early and a few other "tweaks". That would keep investors even more happy, get us to S&P500 inclusion faster but of course would harm the mission.

I think we will see how this all shakes out: depending on how the demand in the US develops over the coming weeks, I could imagine that faster than anticipated deliveries in Europe (folks on reddit say their delivery date is up to 2 weeks earlier than anticipated) and still strongish demand from the US minimise the number of finished vehicles in transit.

 

[Fact Checking]

The Model 3 production number of 80k+ in Q1 seems too rosy. Why did Tesla guide total production only 360k~400k if so many Model 3's can be produced in Q1 at the Fremont factory alone?

The reason I believe is that in their 2019 guidance Tesla was cautiously assuming a "global recession" baseline for global Model 3 demand.

Their no-recession estimate of global Model 3 demand, outlined in the Q4 conference call, is 40%-50% higher.

In their 2019 guidance they went with the more conservative figure.

Note: my 80k Q1 estimate might still turn out to be rosy - ICE carmakers around the world are reporting poor financial results due to worsening demand. In China the ICE market cratered by -14% in December, compared to 2017. China trade deal is still not secured - and the uncertainty is spreading to car buyers.

 

[gora321]

Jaguar Land Rover seeks $1 billion in funding after big write-down

 

[Fact Checking]

Jaguar Land Rover seeks $1 billion in funding after big write-down

I'm afraid Jaguar Land Rover is going to be one of the first victims of the hard BRExit the Murdoch Leavers and Ultras engineered ...

(Losing frictionless access to the 18 trillion Euros inner EU market is sure a fair price to pay for the Murdochs to be allowed to monopolize media markets. The anti-monopoly EU regulations were a cumbersome overreach and curtailing of Murdoch freedoms by pesky EU bureocrats. Good riddance - and who needs industrial and service jobs anyway, if you can have ubiquitous TV channels and tabloids instead?)

 

[lascavarian]

Maybe Tesla doesn't see itself battery constrained in the near future or as severely constrained. Maybe willing to sacrifice a little growth in Tesla Energy for not only the the profits but the validation of GM pickups using Tesla powertra

I guess maybe. It just seems complicated with Panasonic also involved. Perhaps they could agree to provide the pack but GM has to source the cells they want.

Also interesting to think that GM “might” be able to become a service provider in some ways to the benefit of Tesla owners in some states.

 

[bhtooefr]

Likely two battery packs, one on top the other.

That's going to make a pretty heavy car for something that's supposed to do 0-0 in 1.9s for the base model...

My initial reaction to the 600m range was a battery breakthrough, I'm even more confident of that now.

¿Por qué no los dos?

One thing I'm not seeing is any claims that Maxwell's electrode technology does anything about volumetric energy density, only gravimetric.

And, Musk has said (in his interview with Marques Brownlee) that the Roadster will use a double-stack pack:

Brownlee: So 0-60 in 1.9 seconds. But more importantly, I was interested in, is the 200 kWh battery, and the 600+ mile range. Are these numbers assuming an improvement in available technology by 2020? Or are they something you can achieve now but don't have the manufacturing capacity to? Or is it somewhere in between?

Musk: So, think of it like, basically, it's like two Model S P100 packs.

Brownlee: Yeah.

Musk: But you're really just doubling the internals, the cells inside, so there's like a lot of stuff that's related to the pack and the packaging and safety and all that sort of stuff, that is not related to the cells. So, you can double the number of modules inside, and it will still be, like, maybe an 80% increase in the volume of the pack. So, like, the floor would get 4 or 5 inches higher, if it it was current technology. But, we would, we think we probably get another, maybe, 20%, at least 10, maybe 20% improvement, because we'll use... Think about like in expensive cars, we can use the state of the art, the most advanced equipment.

(As an aside, it is a pain to transcribe Musk... For Brownlee, I could slow things down to 0.5x and it was easy. Musk has long pauses such that 0.5x is painfully slow, and he doesn't enunciate as clearly, so I had to speed up to 0.75x and keep rewinding...)

 

[Fact Checking]

Indeed, Tamberino's $TSLA record is obviously not related at all to any perception as to where the SP may be heading, it looks random:

But of course it's not, as mentioned above, the idea is to put some downward pressure on the SP so his company can gobble-up some cheap shares. As of end Q3 last year, GS had 1.1m $TSLA. Their anal-yst is pushing PT of $210/220, I think it was, the SP was between 250 and 370 - so why don't GS sell then, before it heads to that PT?

Note that while Goldman Sachs owns a chunk of TSLA shares, their true net TSLA exposure is unknown due to (well engineered) reporting and regulatory loopholes:

• GS might be shorting TSLA aggressively and playing volatility. Short positions are not reported in the U.S. and are well hidden.
• The large TSLA position might be a permanent safety hedge for derivatives or margin based short positions.
• GS might also own convertible Tesla notes and might be using them as a hedge as well, with short-against-the-box plays.
• Tamberino is a tool, who probably doesn't believe even half of the nonsense he is writing about Tesla. Wall Street analysts are exempt from most SEC insider trading and market manipulation regulations, which is very convenient.
• He is still employed because he 'takes one for the team.'
  
• It is absolutely no accident that Tamberino is reiterating his "sell" ratings primarily after big drops in the TSLA price: either to magnify the drop, or to keep the price low until the GS short position is covered. Rinse, repeat.

The SEC won't investigate as most of this is intentionally kept legal.

 

[Fact Checking]

One thing I'm not seeing is any claims that Maxwell's electrode technology does anything about volumetric energy density, only gravimetric.

For supercars it's primarily mass density that matters.

EVs already have fantastically low polar moment and fantastic passenger ergonomy, so while volumetric density matters, it's not nearly as important as mass density.

 

[bhtooefr]

Absolutely. Just pointing out that the double-stack pack and an improvement in cell tech aren't mutually exclusive.

(And, really, in supercars, volumetric energy density is almost a non-concern - supercars are infamously poorly packaged. Tesla managing to make the Roadster a 2+2 is a testament to the EV packaging advantages, as its ICE and hybrid competition - and even some of its EV competition - have a huge lump of engine and/or battery back there, and many supercars have no cargo area except for enough frunk to put a legally mandated toolkit/first aid kit. There's probably enough free volume in the Roadster that if Tesla wanted to make a 300 kWh model, they could, if they gave up most of the rear cargo area and the back seat.)

Also, a couple other things - Maxwell does claim monemetric (yes, I just made up a word, but I have seen other uses of it) improvements from their tech, durability improvements... and I wonder if the dry electrodes will actually help cold weather performance, as well (because of the classic issues with recharging Li-ion batteries below freezing).

Model 3/Y are primarily monemetrically and secondarily volumetrically limited on cells. I'd venture to guess Model S/X are equally volumetrically and gravimetrically limited (cost isn't an issue on those models, but there's nowhere to put more cells, and you don't want to make those cars heavier than they already are). Roadster is purely gravimetrically limited. Semi and Pickup are likely primarily gravimetrically and secondarily monemetrically limited.

 

[shlokavica22]

As a 25,000 share owner of MXWL, I think there is a very definite chance of a competing bid. $219M is insanely low for this technology and the fact that the amount of shares a MXWL holder receives (when the deal is done in Q2), declines if TSLA shares go up in this timeframe. Not a good deal for MXWL holders as it stands. It would not be hard for a competing offer to look a lot more attractive.

What is you reasoning behind that? If the technology they provide is so awesome, why TSLA are the first bidder knocking on their door?

 

[Fact Checking]

There's probably enough free volume in the Roadster that if Tesla wanted to make a 300 kWh model, they could, if they gave up most of the rear cargo area and the back seat.

They are utilizing that volume with a SpaceX COPV bottle!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What is you reasoning behind that? If the technology they provide is so awesome, why TSLA are the first bidder knocking on their door?

Does anyone know the specifics of the deal? I was under the impression that it was a done thing. What is the timeline for this buyout to become official?

Dan

 

[FS_FRA]

Good riddance - and who needs industrial jobs anyway, if you can have ubiquitous TV channels and tabloids instead?)

...don’t forget the service industry! Also totally superfluous

 

[AlMc]

New talking point from Bob Lutz: "GM saves Tesla by buying powertrains from them'

 

[dw4ngg]

no need for misogynist insults.

Apologies. I had a moment.

 

[gora321]

Matthias Götzke‏ @mgoetzke
@TeslaPodcast just to give some feedback as to Manager Magazin Re with regards to Tesla. For years now, they seem to be the only German high profile magazine critical of German automakers and lauding Tesla's achievements. The car magazines seem to be too deeply embedded.

10:22 PM - 11 Feb 2019
Matthias Götzke on Twitter