Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

You've made some very fair points. However, none of that extra cost (tarrifs and import taxes) end up in Tesla's hands. Tesla needs cash right now, if they had sufficient demand for vehicles at full price I can not fathom why they would send them to China with free AP. Perhaps they think more M3s on the road will spur sales, or justify charger installation costs.. these ideas seem like a stretch. I also, can not wrap my head around a population of 1.4bn people without significant initial demand. Something is going on and I'm at a loss.

I think this might be a data / machine learning play on Tesla’s part. Millions/Billions of miles of shadow FSD data being collected, is NOT being collected in China, but rather N. America and Europe.
Considering the (perceived, since I think Shanghai is not too bad, and social credit system has really changed driving style recently compared to my trips to China in past years since 1991) chaos on Chines roads, where better to collect big data masses to make FSD take a step-change of improvement?

 

[Buckminster]

OT

Great to see you back neroden!

Q1 guidance - tiny profit:

• Elon is almost always optimistic - 50% likelihood of tiny profit or worse
• Short burning - 20% likelihood of >Q4 profits
  • ZEV credits
  • Could not be bullish whilst firing folk
• Playing safe due to lack of data at he time of ER - 30% likelihood
  • Unsure how LR S/X will sell with 75s
    • Data now looking good
  • Unsure whether 10k M3s will be in transit at Q1 end - lacking a plan
    • 2 months to find more / faster ships
    • 2 months to realise he can sell more in NA
    • 2 months to solve EU delivery issues - he just called it a vital mission

 

[neroden]

Looks like official short interest is down to 24.7 million. I'm really surprised how much covering has happened while keeping the price down.

We seem to have had the T Rowe mutual fund short-termers sell and the Saudis "hedge" (which means someone sold). Now would take about 15% being bought up by more long-termers to squeeze the stock; about half of that will happen with S&P addition, which will most likely be in August or September (certainly before the end of the year).

I don't see another 7% buyer on the horizon, but who knows, Bailie Gifford has been adding shares.

 

[neroden]

OT

Great to see you back neroden!

Q1 guidance - tiny profit:

Basically, filling the pipeline with 10K Model 3s in transit is $110M in GAAP profit missing (it shows up in Q2). Q4 GAAP profit was $139M, so use that as the baseline (I expect the allocations to noncontrolling interests to continue for several quarters), so you end up with about $29M in GAAP profit. Small enough it might be negative due to random swings in noncontrolling interest allocation, extra cars in transit, ASP changes, whatever, but yes, a "tiny profit".

Hopefully we get something closer to steady-state deliveries starting in Q2 (split amongst Europe, China, US, etc in a somewhat less lumpy fashion), so we should be seeing $140M+ whatever can be gained by improved cost efficiency, more storage sales, etc.

 

[tinm]

The story/rumor is about GM, not Ford. Still exciting if true

Yep I got it wrong; corrected original post

 

[Tslynk67]

David Tamberbutthole of GS has the same track record tho

Indeed, Tamberino's $TSLA record is obviously not related at all to any perception as to where the SP may be heading, it looks random:

But of course it's not, as mentioned above, the idea is to put some downward pressure on the SP so his company can gobble-up some cheap shares. As of end Q3 last year, GS had 1.1m $TSLA. Their anal-yst is pushing PT of $210/220, I think it was, the SP was between 250 and 370 - so why don't GS sell then, before it heads to that PT?

This is what SEC should be investigating, but they won't, because they're all part of the same corrupt system.

 

[Tenable]

Basically, filling the pipeline with 10K Model 3s in transit is $110M in GAAP profit missing (it shows up in Q2). Q4 GAAP profit was $139M, so use that as the baseline (I expect the allocations to noncontrolling interests to continue for several quarters), so you end up with about $29M in GAAP profit. Small enough it might be negative due to random swings in noncontrolling interest allocation, extra cars in transit, ASP changes, whatever, but yes, a "tiny profit".

Hopefully we get something closer to steady-state deliveries starting in Q2 (split amongst Europe, China, US, etc in a somewhat less lumpy fashion), so we should be seeing $140M+ whatever can be gained by improved cost efficiency, more storage sales, etc.

Neroden, I just wanted to 2nd BuckM's sentiment. Its great to see you back and posting. Do you have any thoughts on Tesla including Autopilot at no additional cost in China?

 

[Tslynk67]

OT

Sorry for the offtopic, but I just wanted to note (since Americans spent so long talking about the Superb Owl in this thread): it's increasingly looking like Iceland is going to troll Eurovision again this year - perhaps not quite to the degree that we did with Silvía Night, but close. The band "Hatari" (Hater) handily won yesterday's semifinals, with the song Hatrið Mun Sigra ("Hatred Will Win"). Their stage performance is in full S&M gear, including a band member in a gimp outfit who gets abused by the lead singer (the band is known for approaching the stage by physically shoving the audience out of the way). While Eurovision songs are generally of the "Tolerate everyone!", "Love is awesome!" and "Can't we all just get along?" variety, the chorus of their song proudly declares "Hatred will win, Europe will collapse" and declares love dead.

IMHO, their music sucks (not my taste), but I'll be cracking up nonstop watching them up on stage in Tel Aviv (assuming that they win the final on 3 March). And besides, most Eurovision music sucks regardless. Oh, and they're already driving our social conservatives into fits, which wins anyone kudos in my book .

My sister lives for Eurovision, she watches everything, all the national competitions and she comments about it all on Facebook, but I have learnt to tune (hat har) her out. Interesting to note that she's in her early 60's and gay - which is something not yet mentioned, maybe not obvious to everyone, but Eurovision is one of the biggest events on the LGBT calendar.

Personally I watch it for the eye-candy and the sarcastic commentary, although that isn't as good in the old days when BBC icon, Terry Wogan, used to do a scathing talk-over...

 

[Tslynk67]

It’s just the unions that want to show they still exist. We got used to it and work from home in order not te be bothered by the strike. This workaround works for a lot of people.

Yeah, except the terms of my contract say I have to be on premises... But that's OK, I cycle to work most of the time...

 

[mongo]

Neroden, I just wanted to 2nd BuckM's sentiment. Its great to see you back and posting. Do you have any thoughts on Tesla including Autopilot at no additional cost in China?

IANN, but it may be a safety thing. EAP includes TACC as well as all the other goodies. EAP as a whole may not be a popular/ useful option in China, so this gives them the most useful feature that may not be worth the option price on it's own. It also gives Tesla more cars to extract active AP data from.

Spoiler: acronyms

IANN-I am not neoden
EAP- Enhanced Aoutopilot
TACC-Traffic Aware Cruise Control
AP-AutoPilot

 

[Tslynk67]

My tweet to Needham's Raj S Gill (They have a SELL right now)



Mr Gill is not active on twitter. Can one of you "connected" people send the message across

Not sure if this has been linked before - Needham Growth conference webcast by Maxwell Technologies - provides lots of context around both ultracapacitor application as well as dry battery electrode tech (proof of concept developed with a major global auto OEM ) .

There is even a Q&A in the end. Transcript available for $125 (no thanks!!) - any volunteers?

Indeed, after all he downgraded based on "Musk's antics" ad said he still had full belief in the company and financials. So about tie he reversed that decision.

 

[sundaymorning]

Basically, filling the pipeline with 10K Model 3s in transit is $110M in GAAP profit missing (it shows up in Q2). Q4 GAAP profit was $139M, so use that as the baseline (I expect the allocations to noncontrolling interests to continue for several quarters), so you end up with about $29M in GAAP profit. Small enough it might be negative due to random swings in noncontrolling interest allocation, extra cars in transit, ASP changes, whatever, but yes, a "tiny profit".

Hopefully we get something closer to steady-state deliveries starting in Q2 (split amongst Europe, China, US, etc in a somewhat less lumpy fashion), so we should be seeing $140M+ whatever can be gained by improved cost efficiency, more storage sales, etc.

They strike all the freakin' time...

Maybe this is one of those “luck/unlucky” things that can sway profits one way or the other.

 

[CorneliusXX]

no need for misogynist insults.

I agree that sexist comments are not the way to go, but she clearly started with misandrist comments.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here is a nice summary, including mention of the Needham Conference: Worth the 15 minutes:

Thanks for that - no shared on Twitter too, bulls and bears alike should watch it. Seems that the Maxwell acquisition has much more potential than I personally understood.

 

[Tslynk67]

But in all seriousness, If those maxwell cells pan out, 500wh/kg for under $100/Kwh kills *all* segments of the ICE industry.

With tech like that you'd be an idiot to buy or produce an ICE vehicle.

Indeed, and Maxwell stated that have a "clear path" to that 500 - given the extra resources that being part of Tesla will bring to bear you have to imagine it's going to come.

So double today's density at half the price is quite a game-changer.

 

[Tslynk67]

Likely two battery packs, one on top the other.

That's going to make a pretty heavy car for something that's supposed to do 0-60 in 1.9s for the base model...

My initial reaction to the 600m range was a battery breakthrough, I'm even more confident of that now.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Norway January 2018

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla selling drive units to GM would be great news and smart for GM.

Adding the Tesla name clearly ads value to the GM EV product at a time when EV adoption needs a shove in the pickup world.

Tesla does not need to dilute its battery supply outside its own uses.

GM can focus on how to do the battery integration with LG (I presume) and EVs advance a considerably faster cause Ford will need to respond.

I think selling Tesla drive units can be an important accelerant to EV adoption. Every drive unit they sell will take an ICE off the road. And drive unit production would seem to respond nicely to the full alien dread naught automation.

I think this an important domino to fall.

 

[srius]

BTW., 85,337 VINs registered in Q1 so far means the following:

• Even if Tesla stops filing for new VINs today, with the "simple 85% rule" this would suggest a Q1 production target of 72,500 Model 3's.
• But there's still 48 days left from Q1, and in Q4 Tesla registered another ~9,000 VINs in the remaining 48 days of the quarter. If Q1 ist similar, that means ~94,300 VINs in Q1, which gives a Q1 production target of 80,150 Model 3's.
• But if we use my full estimation method that worked well in Q4, then it's going to be 97,900 VINs, which gives a Q1 production target of 83,200 Model 3's.

So after Q4 Model 3 production of 61,400 this is a pretty bullish increase for Q1 in the +18-37% range, and most of those units are expected to be high ASP configurations like in Q3, but using Q1 production efficiencies (!).

The usual caveats apply: Tesla might depart from the pattern. Tesla didn't give any Q1 production guidance.

I'll keep updating my estimate as the quarter progresses.

The Model 3 production number of 80k+ in Q1 seems too rosy. Why did Tesla guide total production only 360k~400k if so many Model 3's can be produced in Q1 at the Fremont factory alone?

 

[lascavarian]

From Jack Richard on HyperchangeTVs follow up video on Maxwell acquisition.

Go Jack!!