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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I know DaveT is against taking profits too soon but he should sell 1 stock and buy some shirts. (jk, love his channel)

I totally get the shirt thing. I've got better ways to spend my time than shopping for clothes. I also hate paying a lot for poor quality or fit. So, when I find a shirt or pants that I like, that fits and that feels good to the touch, I buy a bunch of them, happy that I have that need taken care of. I'm not a peacock out trying to impress others with my bank account, my fabulous sense of color coordination or my high style. I just want to stay warm and comfortable without wasting excessive time and resources on stuff that might shrink or fall apart the 5th time I wash it.

This is common with "the millionaire next door" types. These people march to the beat of their own drummer and don't really care what others think unless that will help them reach their goals. I strongly believe this world would be a better place if people spent their time and resources on things that actually mattered.

Go Tesla!
 
That high-yield stocks are super-treacherous for shorters. CVX's dividend right now yields 4.6%; XOM a whopping 5.4%. If you're short, you have to pay not only the borrow rate but you also are required to cough up those dividends.
I long since have viewed dividends as nicely analogous to the pork chop necklace that a dog has to carry for other dogs to play with it. If you like, you can consider it the bribe they pay to keep short sellers away.

Investor FAQs | Tesla, Inc.

Does Tesla pay a dividend? Does it plan to?

Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.

Telsa can help the friendly shorts get to their final destination a bit faster...
 
Elon described Panasonic as a great partner on the 3rd Row Podcast Part 2.

My hunch is Tesla will be making their own batteries for Plaid Model S/X, Roadster and Cybertruck, (initially..).
Panasonic may announce an expansion of capacity a GF1 to increase Model 3/Y production at Fremont.

These things are not contradictory or impossible, a business relationship is not like a personal relationship.... there is no need for exclusivity in fact multiple partners and different agendas are expected... What both sides typically want is for contracts to be fair, and to be honoured.

We will know more on Battery and Drive-train Investor day...

From all the hints there is a lot more to Plaid than simply the battery...

As you say the existing battery does the job in Model 3/Y, if people want the latest battery they can buy a Plaid Model S/X or wait a number of years... there is no competitor car that it at all compelling...

I expect Tesla will one day make all their own automotive batteries, and perhaps Panasonic will keep making energy storage batteries..
But we are talking maybe 5 years down the track, there is time for both parties to enter into contracts for increased production, if they want to, or otherwise, they will simply honour the existing contracts..

For Panasonic to expand at GF1 the main issues are capex and workforce... either one may or may not prove problematic...

I also note that keeping Panasonic topped off limits other auto companies ability to use them. It’s a good strategic play even if financially carries a little penalty for awhile.
 
So if you're a new company, you do not have a fleet. You have no fleet from which to subsidize the sale of your new cars. This is the primary reason there has not been a successful car company startup in the United States. Most car companies have 80%, 70% of their fleet out of warranty. ... Even if they stopped selling new cars, they would still... (laughs) their profits would increase!"

I found this the most interesting comment. What is not stated is how Tesla managed around this financial and structural business barrier?

I think their solution was the development of SW as a monetized revenue stream that could be front loaded in place of the back loaded service revenue of their competitors.

Thanks so much for doing this summary!
 
In over my head. Like many on this forum i now have more gains than i ever thought possible. And i would like to thank everyone for their insights that helped provide me the confidence to stay long all of these years. I am still long but am questioning what the best approach is going forward.

I have a LOC secured on the house, which i have invested in Tesla in a margin account, all shares. I sell the odd PUT for some weekly cash flow. I am quite leveraged. I was wondering if the following strategy made sense.

For purposes of this example... sell 1000 shares ($650k), reduce margin, pay off LOC, pay off mortgage. Take out a new LOC for $100k and buy Jan 2022 leaps (1000s or similar). I could then have ~15 contracts and access the growth going forward on more shares than i originally had (1500 vs 1000). I have reduced debt (margin, LOC, mortgage) at the cost of increasing my risk investing in options. For this example this is not 100% of my TSLA holdings, the remainder are still in shares.

I feel like it is prudent in terms of paying off debt, while allowing me to access more growth through LEAPS than simply holding shares.

I have $100k at risk in the LEAPS, but i have locked in gains and paid off ~$550k of debt. And still in a position to enjoy growth.

While on the other hand, something terrible happens in the market or the stock, and it dips by $100 and i would still have lost $100k of paper gains on those 1000 shares.

This all seems to good to be true, so i'm wondering what i'm missing.
 
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My interpretation of this is maybe a bit less rosy than some here. They're learning how to do this thing. Training many models for specific tasks with their respective curated training sets is not exactly "vacation mode". They now have what probably can be described as "driving situations" as training sets that include video feeds from all cameras (and probably radar) and they simply train for desired outcomes. That's why he's talking about AP being able to drive like it's a high speed chase. It'll be able to do stuff that even highly trained humans won't do, and nobody will be teaching it how, it'll learn by example and then by trial (probably in a sim first, then in some controlled reality). Watch this video knowing that nobody taught this thing how to do what it does. It was just given the goal and gobs of simulated learning time. That didn't work well enough so they had to give it some more simulated time with modified environments like different gravity or tied up fingers. And then it started reliably working. Solving Rubik’s Cube with a Robot Hand

So yes it definitely is a substantial breakthrough, they got the hardware and a system that can learn how to drive instead of a bunch of little individual subsystems that learn small tasks and then you still have to make them all work together to solve the overall problem. That doesn't mean they're almost done. That means they built a much better tool, now they still have to do the training, they still have to make up training datasets etc. How much of what they had for training datasets before can they re-use in the new system? How much more will they need to get some minimally working FSD? Is the current hardware powerful enough to run what is needed without being rat-holed into some crazy optimizations to get acceptable performance? All that remains to be seen.

yep. I now think a reasonable FSD will be possible around 6-12 months after dojo. I think they will have very good driving when this new engine is let loose, but dojo is required for the March of the nines. So we await dojo to train on this huge data we all have been sending them towards 99.99999 safety level. Might get to 99.9 without out it, but that’s not good enough for me to curl up with a book.
 
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I hate to be the harbinger of bad, bad news, but a new threat has been identified with respect to certain vulnerabilities of Tesla's Autopilot:

Turns Out It's Really Easy to Trick Tesla's Autopilot With a Cheap Projector

For those who can't bring themselves to read such devastating news in it's entirety, a short summary is below:

It's unsettling to imagine that a $300 trick could fool your considerably-more-expensive Tesla Autopilot system, and yet, a team of researchers from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and Georgia Tech have pulled it off.

A cheap projector system displaying false speed limit signs in trees or shining a Slenderman-like figure onto the road can actually force Autopilot to change behavior, adjusting speed to the "road signs" and slowing down for what it thinks might be a pedestrian (nevermind the fact that the car still runs over the projection).

These so-called "phantom objects" prove that computer vision still has a long way to go before self-driving cars can ever truly be reliable as alternatives for mass transit or personal car ownership. Accordingly, the researchers refer to their efforts as a "perceptual challenge."

Now that we know the investment of our hard-earned money was probably in vain and TSLA will probably drop at least $200-$300 on Monday morning due to this crushing re-valuation of Tesla's most highly valued asset (FSD) we should learn more about the very real threats posed by "transportation spoofing". So I found this article about some similar cutting edge research:

Turns out it’s easy to trick human drivers with 75 cent balloons and cheap paint

Researchers at Wasilla, AK’s Bush University, studying dangerous situations that are not really dangerous, were able to trick over 98% of human drivers using nothing more than cheap 5’ tall latex balloons painted with inexpensive children’s paints to look like pedestrians and in some cases, bushes.

During the daytime, most drivers could easily recognize the balloons as non-hazardous, harmless items and typically laughed after slowing down and nudging them aside and safely continuing their journey. However, in dark conditions, drivers did not have as much warning and these harmless decoys created very dangerous situations when human drivers mistook them for real threats and suddenly swerved or slammed on their brakes.

“The humans were completely unable to distinguish that these balloons were completely harmless items until after they had potentially deadly reactions to the phony hazards.” said head researcher Bubba Neanderthal. He continued “Autonomous cars using radar could easily determine these balloons did not present a real hazard and continued on their way without taking evasive action”. However, in dark conditions, human drivers, in contrast, either swerved into oncoming lanes of traffic or slammed on the brakes creating hazardous situations in 92.8% of all encounters in the dark.

The researchers plan to study ways to mitigate the dangers caused by inexpensive decoy balloons over the next year. They fear terrorists could wreak havoc on American roads using only inexpensive balloons and cheap children’s paints. Neanderthal’s head research assistant, Red Odin, commented: “Obviously, when autonomous cars with radar are more ubiquitous the threat posed by human drivers being punked by terrorists will decline but, until that happens, we should remain vigilant against such vulnerabilities within our nation’s transportation infrastructure.”

Now you know the rest of the story. :rolleyes:

/s
 
Do you have a source for the 2030 target date for 2 TWhs?

I only remember Elon saying 1-2 TWh / year target, but not attached to a date.

Oops, I seen now he didn't say 2030. In the Q2 2019 Earnings CC he said "Battery Day will be kind of like a Master Plan Part 3".... "How do we get to like 2 terawatt-hours a year".

And in this cleantechnica article it seems they made the a case for it being possible by 2030.

"...Tesla could achieve its Master Plan Part 3 goal of 2 TWh of annual production capacity by 2030..."

Elon Musk Talks Tesla Terawatt-Hours. We Run Some Numbers. | CleanTechnica

So we really have no idea when Elon hopes to have 2TWh capacity, do we?
 
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The point of the ad, BTW, isn't really to pique Elon's interest (that would normally be handled via a phone call - Tesla would take that call). It is to shoot up the stock price, so that they can do a secondary offering, so that they can then finally develop their mine. This company doesn't have anything other than mineral rights. They either need a 10 year supply commitment (which is normally the way these things are financed), or raise a bunch more money via another equity offering.

While the ad promises battery grade graphite, that's just a promise. It isn't as if they've built that plant either. And their graphite is still in the ground. So, a bunch of promises.

Your comments highlight one of the many indirect benefits of a rising TSLA share price. People now take the move to BEV's more seriously. That means mining companies can and will more quickly raise capital to get in on the boom in BEV's with a corresponding reduction in the time to ramp availability of the necessary raw materials.
 
How about we just stop analyzing what MBS is saying. There is probably a separate thread for him anyway. I'm personally tired of reading coverage on his movements

I don't think it's really about spiegel any more - it's that he is representative of the short seller's mind set, so good to evaluate their thought process. He is one of the leaders of the short sellers, so I can tell where their minds are, based on what he is tweeting. Their desperation confirms my belief in Tesla.

Not too mention, I cant help but like to see him squirm. I would pay a TON of noney to one day see him being evicted from his mama's basement. He hindered Tesla and TSLA with his lies. He is NOT someone I like, to say the least.
 
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I don't want to dig for quotes and admit that I didn't watch Karpathy video, just believe what Elon was implying for the new tech is much higher processing/decision making workload than before, including some additional categories of data being processed. So, maybe some neural nets can be ported, but it sounded like a lot of new stuff that changed from the state before, so prob. a lot of new training/testing.
I could be wrong.

you are not wrong. It’s a new net that needs new training.
 
Elon's equity in TSLA increased by about $7.7B in January. How'd y'all do? :D

#HODLING

man-dancing_1f57a.png


Cheers!
 
General note:
Their $7k target assumes no self driving revenue. The model places the odds of FSD happening at only 30%.
I don’t think that’s exactly right, if I’m interpreting their results correctly. The $7000 is the statistical expected value, but doesn’t specifically correspond to any of their scenarios. The best non-autonomy scenario has a SP of $3400. It assumes Tesla has an 80% chance of following Wright's law for reducing production costs and has a 50% chance of factory construction efficiency of $11,000/vehicle/year. For the probabilities assigned to those variables, the SP doesn’t jump up until autonomy comes into play.

iff I’m interpreting their data correctly
 
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