Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[keydiver]

In the comments he justifies his claim of residential charging cost with $0.05 to $0.10 per kWh in Florida. That sounds a bit... low.

I'm on FPL. It's 10.5 cents for the first 1,000 kWh per month, and 12.5 cents above that. So, my solar shaves off all the 12.5 cent kWh.

 

[ReflexFunds]

With all these traditional OEMs struggling to get enough batteries, there is always this nagging question in my head: how did Tesla, in such a crowded and competitive market, get their hands on production capacity at LG and CATL for at least 150,000 Chinese Model 3s per year (and more when the Model Y plant comes online)? How are they snatching those batteries away in front of VW, Mercedes, KIA/Hyundai, who are all extremely battery constraint, and not pay their weight in gold? Does anybody have an explanation?

I agree with @mongo, in part it is due to Tesla's commoditised form factor which is much simpler and cheaper to manufacture (and likely much quicker to repurpose other cell manufacturing equipment to this form factor). This also gives Tesla more leverage in supplier discussions relative to ICE OEMs who have worked on a 3 -5 year program with a battery supplier on a specific form factor and really have no choice but to accept their demands.
In particular, European ICE OEMs will be desperate for battery supply this year due to emissions regulations, and they have put themselves in a very bad negotiating position so I expect cell suppliers to continue to take advantage of the situation

I also expect Tesla put in a larger order than the compliance EV programs from ICE OEMs while cell suppliers also likely have more faith in Tesla achieving targeted demand.

 

[Vad42]

I'd personally roll. You're running out of delta upside on them; you can't go higher than 1. If you want to reduce leverage, you can trade each one for a call at a higher strike and pocket the profit as shares. I do that a lot.

What are tax implications of rolling options in non retirement account? Is it a taxable event or does it just adjust base price of the new call?

I’m sitting on a couple of 400 Jan 21 calls that I’m waiting to at least get to 1 year (in April) for long term capital gains. At what point would holding them become counter productive ?

 

[M3Rider]

Solving the Money Problem on the impact potential of Jim Cramer stating that the fossil fuel era is in its death knell this morning.

Seems like one (small but clear) sign that things really are changing in terms of investor sentiment.

Yeah. This and the other CNBC fighting video about BlackRock divesting from fossil fuels, these are highlights of the year for me.

So hyped up about this. Hoping to see more and more of it.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Don’t know if this has been posted already, but it seems like the price for the FSD upgrade went down for those who already have EAP. It was $5300 CAD and now appears to be only $4000CAD.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Ark posted its updated projection.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

2024 "expected value" - $7k. Bear case: $1,500. Bull case: $15,000.

Must. Not. Sell. Only. Four. Years.

 

[keydiver]

One reason I can think of is that the Taycan is so thirsty it will be expensive (for an EV) and he is trying to downplay that aspect. But I don't really know why he is making the claim that electricity is cheaper than it is.

Yeh, just to add to my other post, I can guarantee that most of the McMansions near me are already up into the .125 per kWh, so adding an EV to your garage is going to add at that rate. With air conditioning almost all year round here in south Florida, its quite easy to exceed 1,000 kWh per month. I have one friend whose FPL bill was $500/month until I added 10 kw of solar.

 

[Mkorpal]

Is it Monday yet?

Jokes aside, that Ark PT is something else. I think they may be a year ahead on their FSD target, but I'm not sure it matters much, since I give it even odds.

 

[Cherry Wine]

What are tax implications of rolling options in non retirement account? Is it a taxable event or does it just adjust base price of the new call?

I’m sitting on a couple of 400 Jan 21 calls that I’m waiting to at least get to 1 year (in April) for long term capital gains. At what point would holding them become counter productive ?

If held for under a year in the US, the net profit would be subject to applicable short term capital gains taxes. I am not a tax attorney, etc.

 

[rsm287]

Ark posted its updated projection.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

2024 "expected value" - $7k. Bear case: $1,500. Bull case: $15,000.

Woah! I was expecting they would bump it up to $8,000 or something!

They now say that their 'Expected Value' is $7,000.

Can someone explain the 'Cumulative Probability' column in the various scenarios? With their 'Golden Goose' scenario, which has a price target of $22,000, it says a probability of 12%, but the cumulative probability is listed as >99%. I don't get it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Woah! I was expecting they would bump it up to $8,000 or something!

They now say that their 'Expected Value' is $7,000.

Can someone explain the 'Cumulative Probability' column in the various scenarios? With their 'Golden Goose' scenario, which has a price target of $22,000, it says a probability of 12%, but the cumulative probability is listed as >99%. I don't get it.

Cumulative is just all of the various scenarios added up (starting from the bottom up).

 

[mongo]

Is it Monday yet?

Jokes aside, that Ark PT is something else. I think they may be a year ahead on their FSD target, but I'm not sure it matters much, since I give it even odds.

General note:
Their $7k target assumes no self driving revenue. The model places the odds of FSD happening at only 30%.

 

[JustMe]

Ark posted its updated projection.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

2024 "expected value" - $7k. Bear case: $1,500. Bull case: $15,000.

omg I am so exciting!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is it reasonable to think that the limited number of Semis reported to be slated for delivery in late Q2 (as linked in this thread earlier this week) could be incorporating Tesla's new cells and/or production methods? The timeline lines up reasonably well with the expectation that Battery Day is being held at such a time that any production would be taking place fairly soon thereafter.

I wouldn't have thought so, but with Elon, who the heck knows? It is possible they are using some of Gigafactory Nevada to produce their own cells (ie. independent of Panasonic).

Actually, it is very likely they already have a prototype cell line operating somewhere. So where would they do that? Nevada is an obvious location. And considering how good Elon is at getting people to optimize physical space (we've seen it at Fremont, and the SpaceX Hawthorne location is incredibly dense for what it does), I have no doubt they could squeeze in a prototype line or even a half decent sized production line in at Nevada.

So, reasonable to think? Yes. Probable? Need more data...

 

[rsm287]

Cumulative is just all of the various scenarios added up (starting from the bottom up).

Yes, I can see that now, thanks. Still don't get the purpose of this column though, as in - what is it supposed to tell us?

 

[SunCatcher]

Is TSLA still the most-shorted stock, or is that back to AAPL now?

Oil stocks should be the most shorted, and they're not. What does that tell us?

 

[jerry33]

Oil stocks should be the most shorted, and they're not. What does that tell us?

There's no point in shorting a non-volatile stock?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Excellent summary.

I only wish there were some knowledgeable TMC members present - there were so many obvious followup questions to ask after some of Elon’s comments.

Elon focused a lot on how stupid it is to build cars in USA and shipping them to Europe and China, so one obvious followup is will the premium models eventually also see localized production in China and Europe?

(One note: Honda is one car maker that actually does make aircraft, The Honda Jet, but it’s tiny compared to its auto operations. I think Musk may start an independent company to make planes, by the way he was talking, but not any time soon.)

They made it quite clear on Twitter that this interview was to be an opportunity for Elon to tell HIS story with as little interruption as possible. It wasn't intended as a tough Q&A with a ton of probing questions. I think that's one big reason Elon agreed to do it...and why he seems so at ease.

Dan

 

[rsm287]

Just been reading through some more of ARK's figures. Even their bear case lists 3.2 million vehicles in 2024 and the bull case is 7.1 million! With a CAGR of 50% I only get to 2.8 million in 2024.

Edit to add: They do talk about some serious investment to accelerate production:

....we assume that Tesla issues $10 billion in equity capital to scale production at an accelerated rate and capitalize on its competitive advantages. We also anticipate that Tesla will issue incremental debt—tens of billions of dollars in some cases— to scale production and that the issuance will be governed by its profitability and collateralized by its fixed assets.

 

[mongo]

I wouldn't have thought so, but with Elon, who the heck knows? It is possible they are using some of Gigafactory Nevada to produce their own cells (ie. independent of Panasonic).

Actually, it is very likely they already have a prototype cell line operating somewhere. So where would they do that? Nevada is an obvious location. And considering how good Elon is at getting people to optimize physical space (we've seen it at Fremont, and the SpaceX Hawthorne location is incredibly dense for what it does), I have no doubt they could squeeze in a prototype line or even a half decent sized production line in at Nevada.

So, reasonable to think? Yes. Probable? Need more data...

I'm thinking somewhere between Grohmann and Hibar. No reason to put in GF1 untill fully tested.

There's no point in shorting a non-volatile stock?

Oil isn't volitile?