Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Huskyf]

Oups ! Whats going with TSLA$

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow,
Is this real? I thought other auto companies are formidable rivals, but they actually have neeeeeeeeegative value?

Legacy is f***ed
@tesla4k

Tesla Market Cap—$144B Total debt—$13B
Ford Market Cap—$32B Total debt—$155B
GM Market Cap—$50B Total debt—$103B
VW Market Cap—$96B Total debt—$227B
Daimler Market Cap—$59B Total debt—$169B
BMW Market Cap—$43B Total debt—$113B
Toyota Market Cap—$198B Total debt—$183B
Twitter

Does this include financing debt (which is backed by assets, ie cars?). If so, this is meaningless.

 

[hoang51]

Just dropped like a rock... Deja Vu all over again?

Almost feels like it. But this time, I didn't put a stop loss to sell since the rise isn't too superficial. But I might need to put it in later just in case the shenanigans repeat...

 

[Cohiba]

Just dropped like a rock... Deja Vu all over again?

Shaking out weak longs. We’re only taking strong bulls towards the $1k golden gate.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Funny that there is hardly any mention of the SP here. We just crossed 930 and not a peep. Are we all getting numb? This former 'weak long' sure is. Last time I got nervous at these heights and after the artificial drop I chickened out for 2 days. Now I feel at ease and believe I will shrug off any drop, even a large one. Eyes on the long term target ($5,000+). Or is it mid term?

Earlier this year I had a mild freakout at the sky high price of...wait for it...$500. LOL.

I don't freak out anymore. (Especially now that I have a Model X paid for by TSLA sitting in my garage.)

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you Dutch? I’m Canadian and we just don’t talk like that. Don’t get me wrong I like how forward it is but if I said that to my fellow Canadian friends they would think I’m a know it all and pompous. Even though I would be speaking the truth. I do them the truth about Tesla but just in a different way.

Please. You’d have said the same thing with two minor changes exception:

Sorry, but that’s because... Thank you.

 

[Rammstein]

It’s a roller coaster today. Wee! Actually opposite on of a roller coaster fun on the way up and scary anticipation on the way down.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hint: get the receiving broker to "pull" the shares. Don't bother asking the sending broker for anything. Incentives work in your favor.

I listened into one of those phone conversations when I switched. Definitely a lot quieter on the "pullee" side.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just dropped like a rock... Deja Vu all over again?

Yeah, it's only up 7% for the day now.

 

[ninpb]

Shaking out weak longs. We’re only taking strong bulls towards the $1k golden gate.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Well, tsla gapped up +50 to $850.60 1/18/20 this morning making the $750 put way otm. Tesla's stock surged after Bernstein nearly doubles price target. So not really a big catalyst to justify the price move.

So I will buy to close put @ $1.50 and roll out a new Put spread to take adv of this volatility and reduce my margin requirements.

Bought to close 1 tsla 200221P750 Put @ 1.50 for profit of $550.00

and

Sold 5 contracts of the 200221 800/790 Put spread for credit of $900 ($1.80x5)

tsla gapped up HUGE again at the open +65 to $923 today.
Needless to say that the 5 put spread above (since yesterday) are going to expire worthless,
So I closed it out @ .10 each for profit of $850

And

Sold 2 tsla 200221P875 Put for credit of $1000 ($5.0x2)

 

[oldTAVguy]

When we get to $5000, a $60 rise is only a 1.2% rise. A $60 rise could be considered nothing special.

 

[ZeApelido]

Bulls and bears:

 

[juanmedina]

he had 3/20 calls so he's still doing fine...maybe not 8 mill but like 4mil+

He is at it again

 

[JBRR]

tsla gapped up HUGE again at the open +65 to $923 today.
Needless to say that the 5 put spread above (since yesterday) are going to expire worthless,
So I closed it out @ .10 each for profit of $850

And

Sold 2 tsla 200221P875 Put for credit of $1000 ($5.0x2)

These play-by-plays of your personal dispositions aren't helpful to anyone. It's just noise.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Exponential growth forecasts are highly sensitive to the exponent. Ark predicts that Tesla will have 18% market share. That corresponds to a 62% YoY growth factor rather than a 50%. 62% may not sound like much of a difference vs. 50%, but 50% growth and 18% of the market would correspond to a market size of 23M rather than 37M.
Additionally, Tesla's guidance isn't for "50%" CAGR, but rather:
-------
Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think a few years ago, I said I -- yes, I think on our [Indecipherable] a few years ago, I said in my estimate, for us is that, Tesla would grow at an average compound annual rate -- average rate of in excess of 50%. I still hold to that belief.
-------
The only time you end up with radically different conclusions than Ark is if you assume that CAGR will significantly falter at some point in the near future.

Thank you @KarenRei for pointing out the sensitivity of exponential forecasts. I missed continuing on to page 26 of ARK's paper, where a chart shows how ARK gets to it's 37M EV global forecast. They extrapolate from 2019 2M to 37M 2024 by assuming a CAGR of 79% for all EV makers. However I don't follow ARK's reasoning that if Tesla's market share is 18% in 2019 and it (optimistically) might achieve 79% CAGR, that all the companies accounting for the remaining 82% will also grow at 79% the next five years to reach their 37M global forecast.
It seems to me if ARK were looking at realistic CAGR % for the set of non Tesla EV makers they would reach a far lower 2024 EV total and then calculate what Tesla's percentage of the market would be. It is Tesla's many advantages over other EV makers that make a very high CAGR for it reasonable.
I think ARK's analysis conclusion should more logically be that Tesla is likely to increase it's market share significantly by 2024.
Their 37M forecast also seems questionable from the standpoint of likely limitations on ramping supplies of raw materials needed to manufacture the batteries needed by that many EVs (as well as the factories).

 

[Remus]

The traditional playbook from China is to fork the factory by stealth opening another one somewhere else and hiring half of your workers away. This is after copying all the machines you have and stealing all the software. Sometimes they go further by having the worker fake declare machine parts wear and tear so they can move these parts to the forked factory.

Then they come to you and say, sell me your factory at half price, otherwise we will openly compete with you.

For domestic companies that are champions of people and high profile, the CCP will come by in secret one day and with some leverage they obtained on you (either your family member's dirty secret or some gov schenaningans) they force you to sign over the majority stake to CCP members. Jack Ma suffered this fate.

TSMC is one of the foreign corps that they haven't done this to yet. But TSMC are very familiar with their playbook and have not moved their most prized processes to China and retained them from Taiwan.

But how do you steal software theses days? This is not like installing a pirate version of Windows on your PC.

Taking binary code from another organization with no support is just suicide. Even with full access of the source code doesn't garentee success. Even operating a Hadoop cluster takes significant expertise. And Hadoop has the full source code online with tons of information about how best to operate it in various kinds of situations.

And the manufacturing process is so complicated they are tweaked all the time not unlike software. Apple has a team of experts practically living inside foxconn factories tweaking their pipelines.

Even with joint ventures with Toyota nobody in China produced a credible competitor of Camry yet, or Accord for that matter.

I think if someone comes to Elon and saying we gonna copy your factory and drive you out of business, they would be laughed out of the room. If they actually do it that factory would be in production hell right after completion and they have to beg Tesla to take over.

Well the government can always create trouble by investigate you taxes and "production safety" things like that. It's a risky proposition as they have to rack up significant financial loss before Tesla would cave in, at the same time Tesla factory loan is guaranteed by the government, with tons of jobs on the line. They risk shooting themselves on the foot.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think a lot of legacy auto CEO's are dusting off their resumes so they can bail soon so someone else can take the blame when it all comes crashing down around them.

Yeah, don't think of it as a 'Squeeze', think of it as a 'Piëch'...

 

[StealthP3D]

Btw, the right most chart on page 25 of their 2020 Big Ideas document show the ARK forecast line reaching 7M EVs by 2024 rather than the 37M estimate they forecast on page 20. That seems like a pretty big consistency mistake for a key company document.

I'm not trying to diss ARK here, just pointing out what I see as a big forecasting miss by them, and curious to see if those better informed here also view it as one or not.

Link? I think you're conflating their projections for Tesla's numbers with global numbers for all manufacturers. Do you really think their projections would vary that widely from page to page if they were representing the same thing?

Sometimes common sense is a powerful tool. Use it.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I like how that sudden dip was squished despite the large amount of shares traded at that time.