Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

as far as loaning out your position, they can only loan out what is owned in excess of what you paid for with your money.

And this process is audited by the SEC or some other blind-eyed system? (Sorry, OT here, but leveraging is just too tempting for the powerful, they'll always want more.)

Also, pretty hard to sell when everyone is saying buy buy buy and the stock rises. Damn...

 

[JRP3]

this is what confuses me most. Most other EV builders use large prisma cells and that's a major reason they can't compete with Tesla on price and performance.

If replacing cylinder cells with big bricks achieves significant improvement, then other EV makers had the advantages years ago. It simply can NOT be true.

You seem to be missing the point that the LFP prismatic packs will have lower energy density and can only be used for shorter range vehicles.
Also, as NMC energy density increases it may be advantageous to switch to prismatic form factor as well.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

... today, "Grüne Liga" boss Heinz-Herwig Mascher suggested: The environmental association withdraws its lawsuit - if Tesla pays extensive compensatory measures for its intervention in nature. For example, 30 kilometers of freeway should be planted with protective hedges against sand and dust storms.

Really? If they are gonna blackmail can't they come up with something at least reasonable? I've been to Berlin many times. Sand and dust storms has never come up in discussions with locals. I don't think I've ever seen or heard of any 'sand' in the area. I will wager that the area is among the least likely to have such storms in the whole world.

 

[Remus]

Same reason you didn't buy an iPhone in 2003?

Tesla brought hibar and maxwell that had "promising" new tech but still Tesla need to further develop it into a new production system.

What you said does not make sense at all. If CATL has this new thing that beats Tesla with significantly lower cost and no performance hit, then they would be idiots not blabber it to the world and start a bidding war among all the potential clients and there are many.

 

[SOULPEDL]

THIS IS A CRAZY STOCK. It has f****d with my head for sure. Yesterday, I couldn't focus for an opposite reason.

Keep buying people!!!

 

[Dylan]

I see that est delivery for Netherlands M3 changed from March to May on the order page today

 

[Pezpunk]

Really? If they are gonna blackmail can't they come up with something at least reasonable? I've been to Berlin many times. Sand and dust storms has never come up in discussions with locals. I don't think I've ever seen or heard of any 'sand' in the area. I will wager that the area is among the least likely to have such storms in the whole world.

but Tesla was smart to agree to it -- because it calls their bluff. Complainers make a ridiculous demand. Tesla says "ok, fine" and then the complainers go "actually wait we're still not satisfied..." exposing their bad-faith intentions here.

 

[Chocochip]

Which as amply on display on Twitter, is meaningless when it comes to the TSLAQ nut jobs.

With the main distinction that many of the TSLAQ nut jobs on twitter retain their anonymity, and they're also motivated by financial gains. By contrast, "environmentalist" groups etc. would stand to gain almost nothing financially and they are very public. But, yeah, some of them are kinda used to being considered nut jobs, depending on how extreme their views are.

 

[Nocturnal]

I see that est delivery for Netherlands M3 changed from March to May on the order page today

That's clearly because demand has gone to zero in Europe.
-shawties

THIS IS A CRAZY STOCK. It has f****d with my head for sure. Yesterday, I couldn't focus for an opposite reason.

Keep buying people!!!

How long have you been in TSLA? I thought we are all used to this by now. ​

 

[StealthP3D]

Which is what I fully expect this year on all stocks. My biggesy fear. It's why my insticts say to side step that soon, even just partially, but is not a good approach and is not the proclaimed proven method... so I keep saying to myself.

I've been hearing those voices in my head also. But I've been resisting them because, in general, they are not helpful to the overall big picture.

Then we have an electuon year, studies from MIT, etc... doesn't Statistics speak for something here? Is everyone ignoring the maket bubble? How are you hedging the math here?

Supposedly, we've been in a "bubble" for at least three years with a recession looming at any moment. If I sold and sat on the sidelines as soon as I thought we were in a bubble and a recession had a significant chance of hitting in the near-term, I would have sold all my TSLA at....wait, I never would have bought it at $264, $240, $184, $210 and $300. And I never would have bought any TSLA calls. Which means I would still be in cash waiting for the bubble to burst and the recession to hit. And my brokerage account would be a fraction of its current size.

Don't statistics speak for something here? Actually, they do. Statistically speaking, you are better to stay invested for the long term right through recessions. Statistically speaking, not even smart market participants can accurately predict the timing of recessions. Statistically speaking, you are better off to not pay capital gains on the sale of your holdings if you can delay those taxes while the stock continues to appreciate.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The carmaker agreed. But: The also complaining "Association for Landscape Management and Species Protection in Bavarian Motor Works (BMW) objected. Because only two of the four board members agreed to the settlement, Bavaria did not withdraw their complaint.

FTFY

 

[SOULPEDL]

Don't statistics speak for something here? Actually, they do. Statistically speaking, you are better to stay invested for the long term right through recessions.

This would be true if you knew nothing about the odds of other things presented in the moment by some statistical guru's. (Similar to the ones that claim 7,000 SP at ARK and everyone seems to agree with here.)

Let's think this out for a bit. Let's say Bernie Sanders keeps his lead, maybe takes the nomination. I believe the MIT odds of a recession go from 70% to 80+, and in a shorter period of time which is fixed. If I wait for that moment, it's too late IMO.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks,
That's where I'm at too. I figure if I do this each month and as TSLA grows roughly $100/share/month, I keep raising the strike $100. This month $1,200, next month $1,300, etc.

The strategy will work fine until it doesn't... For my core shares, max 2 weeks ahead is where I'm looking, any longer than that bears too much risk. Of course you must always be comfortable with the idea that your shares might be called away.

In my play account I took the opportunity of the dip to sell a 28/2 $850 put for $2700 - this has the extra bonus that if it exercises then I get 100 shares to replace the 94 I sold on Tuesday, so I can't lose on the trade. If it doesn't, I'll write another put first week March. If the SP zooms up again, I might rebuy and then resell at a higher strike.

 

[Tslynk67]

Damn, I think I should have stayed in bed...

The bookmakers are in town...

 

[Nocturnal]

Increased Earnings Estimates Seen for Tesla (TSLA): Can It Move Higher?

These positive earnings estimate revisions suggest that analysts are becoming more optimistic on TSLA’s earnings for the coming quarter and year. In fact, consensus estimates have moved sharply higher for both of these time frames over the past four weeks, suggesting that Tesla could be a solid choice for investors.

Current Quarter Estimates for TSLA

In the past 30 days, four estimates have gone higher for Tesla while none have gone lower in the same time period. The trend has been pretty favorable too, with estimates increasing from 55 cents a share 30 days ago, to 82 cents today, a move of 49.1%.

Current Year Estimates for TSLA

Meanwhile, Tesla’s current year figures are also looking quite promising, with nine estimates moving higher in the past month, compared to none lower. The consensus estimate trend has also seen a boost for this time frame, increasing from $6.35 per share 30 days ago to $7.85 per share today, an increase of 23.6 %.

On one hand it's nice to see people are estimating good news in the short term. On the other hand I really hate seeing good expectations because the hit from missing those artificial numbers can hurt.

 

[Chocochip]

If there is really a "new tech" that achieves significant cost saving without hurting performance, and Tesla did not knew and act on it earlier, letting the cell production restriction slowing down their growth, then Tesla deserve to die.

This is NOT the Tesla we knew.

To be clear, the rumours indicate this is about the Standard Range M3, for which a smaller total energy capacity is required. The NMC 2170 cell modules don't fill up the battery enclosure in the SR (or maybe Tesla designed a different battery pack for the SR, can't remember), so a less energy-dense battery pack would still fit.
When it comes to Tesla "sitting" on new, cost-saving technology, it's very possible that this solution is only significantly cost-saving in China, where the battery supplier is and where a battery pack made in GF1 and shipped across the world would be too expensive. The situation would possibly be quite different for Made-in-USA Model 3s.
Either way, we will all find out on Battery Day.

 

[Davmal]

My own take on this LFP confusion is as follows.

To produce a SR+ Model 3 with 250 mile range Tesla uses a battery pack with x number of Pana 2170 cylindrical cells to achieve this range.

To achieve the same range using CATL prismatic cells they will need more cells with a higher weight/KwH ratio but the cheaper price of the CATL cells makes it economically feasible to just stuff more cells in to achieve the same 250 mile range.

It doesn't imply that CATL prismatic cells are all of a sudden technically superior to the 2170s, to me it just means Tesla has calculated it makes sense to use them in this way to maximise production at this time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

THIS IS A CRAZY STOCK. It has f****d with my head for sure. Yesterday, I couldn't focus for an opposite reason.

Keep buying people!!!

This is nothing relative to previous years. It's literally the exact opposite, absurd valuation and relatively bulletproof.

Consider this. Yesterday, some very wealthy people who could not possibly care less about Tesla, it's products or mission bought $2.3B in shares that this morning could be sold for $2.7+B....and very few of them are selling. That's insane.

 

[hobbes]

News from today according to Berliner Zeitung:
Justiz-Krimi um geplantes Tesla-Werk geht weiter

"Justice thriller about planned Tesla plant continues

... today, "Grüne Liga" boss Heinz-Herwig Mascher suggested: The environmental association withdraws its lawsuit - if Tesla pays extensive compensatory measures for its intervention in nature. For example, 30 kilometers of freeway should be planted with protective hedges against sand and dust storms.

The carmaker agreed. But: The also complaining "Association for Landscape Management and Species Protection in Bavaria e.V." (VLAB) objected. Because only two of the four board members agreed to the settlement, Bavaria did not withdraw their complaint.
...
Now the Berlin court has to decide. "The judges have been providing intensive advice on the case since Tuesday," said court spokesman Ulrich Marenbach. “The decision could be made on Thursday evening, at the latest on Friday. So that Tesla can clear before the breeding period if the decision is positive. ""

The latest according to German tabloid Bild: Justiz-Krimi um die geplante Tesla-Autofabrik in Brandenburg

The state government now hopes that a two-stage decision will be made, according to BILD: The court could allow cutting the trees, because the forest could be re-planted. And prohibit all measures, that cannot be taken back any more until Tesla has a building permit. That should happen in May at the earliest.

Die Potsdamer Regierung hofft nun auf eine „zweiteilige“ Entscheidung, erfuhr BILD: Das Gericht könnte die Rodung erlauben, weil der Wald wieder aufgeforstet werden kann. Und alle Maßnahmen verbieten, die nicht mehr rückgängig zu machen sind, bis Tesla eine Baugenehmigung hat. Die soll aber soll frühestens im Mai da sein.

Also, Bild reports decision will be made tonight.

Sounds like a likely outcome to me. That way, Tesla would lose 3 months instead of more than half a year. Hopefully just tolerable...

 

[Joe F]

Keep buying people!!!

Slavery is illegal.