Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dakh]

also wondering this, what's the competitive advantage if they are just buying cells from CATL like anyone else.

but I think the explanation is as simple as they are battery constrained and need more batteries than they can make themselves right now. and yes the CATL cells might not be as good as their proprietary cylindrical cells but it's a tradeoff they think is worth it for the Chinese market.

They are probably going as fast as they can to get their own battery factory tech going, and need a stop gap measure to keep the car making side going. It would not make any sense to invest into the old tech so the only option is to get a temporary ride on someone else's investment.

 

[Remus]

You seem to be missing the point that the LFP prismatic packs will have lower energy density and can only be used for shorter range vehicles.
Also, as NMC energy density increases it may be advantageous to switch to prismatic form factor as well.

My own take on this LFP confusion is as follows.

To produce a SR+ Model 3 with 250 mile range Tesla uses a battery pack with x number of Pana 2170 cylindrical cells to achieve this range.

To achieve the same range using CATL prismatic cells they will need more cells with a higher weight/KwH ratio but the cheaper price of the CATL cells makes it economically feasible to just stuff more cells in to achieve the same 250 mile range.

It doesn't imply that CATL prismatic cells are all of a sudden technically superior to the 2170s, to me it just means Tesla has calculated it makes sense to use them in this way to maximise production at this time.

I kinda agree with this assessment. That's why I am confused about all the excitement around all this. For me this sounds like a stop gap measure, actually showing Tesla's inability to scale battery production.

It still sucks, the LFP is damn heavy which means you get less efficient, more cells (money) to achieve the same range. But why spend even more money buying prisma cells?

 

[Curt Renz]

Well seems somebody is buying the dip big time.

The TSLA dive this morning from yesterday's record close was checked just above (by $1.54) the closing price on Tuesday. That suggests a price near $860 may now be a significant support level. The bounce from that level may be inspiring the dip buyers.

 

[JRP3]

I kinda agree with this assessment. That's why I am confused about all the excitement around all this. For me this sounds like a stop gap measure, actually showing Tesla's inability to scale battery production.

It still sucks, the LFP is damn heavy which means you get less efficient, more cells (money) to achieve the same range. But why spend even more money buying prisma cells?

Because your assessment is incorrect? LFP requires more "material" per kWh but if the material is cheap enough it can make up the difference.

 

[Silentk]

70% of car buyers now considering purchasing an EV - Air Quality News

Interesting survey by Shell. 70% of car buyers now considering purchasing an EV.

 

[gerebgraus]

J.B. Straubel once explained that form factor provides very small differences. They have made extensive calculations to pick the best form factor for Model 3, but the differences were small. Contrary to passionate none substantive arguments on both sides of the debate that is not the decisive factor.
The interesting part of this current deal is that substantial prioritization of price vs. energy density. The likely motivating factor for Tesla was to solve the battery shortage until its own production kicks in within a couple of years. CATL had space capacity for that form factor. It is the same type of decision Tesla made for the Model S originally. There were plenty of os spare production capacity for 18650 from factor as notebooks moved to a different form factor.

 

[killianss]

I kinda agree with this assessment. That's why I am confused about all the excitement around all this. For me this sounds like a stop gap measure, actually showing Tesla's inability to scale battery production.

It still sucks, the LFP is damn heavy which means you get less efficient, more cells (money) to achieve the same range. But why spend even more money buying prisma cells?

I am glass half full guy. The way i read it,

- Car production is way too fast for battery production to keep up. It means more revenue, possibly profits.
- Cost saving (i read somewhere, maybe from this threads)
- Ability to use different battery design without much efforts
- Throw competitors to wrong directions or occupy space to prevent others getting the technology (this is just my speculation)

 

[jkirkwood001]

THIS IS A CRAZY STOCK....
Keep buying people!!!

Slavery is illegal.

Comma, @Joe F, are you kiddin' me?? (works better said out loud)

 

[Remus]

Because your assessment is incorrect? LFP requires more "material" per kWh but if the material is cheap enough it can make up the difference.

you need energy to haul that "material" around, which eats into your cars "gas" efficiency. which means you need more kwh to get to the same range. what's wrong with that?

 

[JBRR]

Tesla surges in Consumer Reports auto rankings due to Model 3

 

[StealthP3D]

Let's think this out for a bit. Let's say Bernie Sanders keeps his lead, maybe takes the nomination. I believe the MIT odds of a recession go from 70% to 80+, and in a shorter period of time which is fixed. If I wait for that moment, it's too late IMO.

You sound overly concerned with potential or percieved risks. You should probably just sell and wait out the periods you are uncomfortable with. You will probably have lower returns but maybe you will sleep better.

 

[Chocochip]

you need energy to haul that "material" around, which eats into your cars "gas" efficiency. which means you need more kwh to get to the same range. what's wrong with that?

Yes, you do need more energy for a heavier, less energy dense pack. But not that much more energy. In other words, there's a crossover point on the weight-vs-energy curve at which a heavier pack makes sense, provided you have sufficient space for the extra volume.

Combined with the cost savings (reportedly 20-25% lower overall production costs per car), this decision might actually make sense in that specific context (factory and supplier location, demand for SR model, availability of 2170 cells vs that of prismatic cells, etc.).

 

[JRP3]

you need energy to haul that "material" around, which eats into your cars "gas" efficiency. which means you need more kwh to get to the same range. what's wrong with that?

Range is more affected by aerodynamics than weight, especially when on long trips at highway speed, which is when range matters.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What to expect for Thursday and Friday? We see huge (like 15K) concentrations of call options at 900 and again at 1000 that will expire on Friday. The hedge funds may be frantic to push TSLA below 900 for the Friday close. Expect a mandatory morning dip on Thursday that would be designed to suggest another Feb 5 dip is coming (it's not). If TSLA shakes off the manipulations and climbs, expect an all hands on deck effort to keep TSLA below 1000 for Friday's close. If you are trading options, consider going for strikes that won't be such clear targets as 900 and 1000.

Is this b/c they just can't get enough TSLA to meet their S&P %s?

Just had a silly thought (again). Now with 2.3B more in outstanding shares, the institutions will need to also up their # of shares to meet the %. So dilution leads to a stock rise in this case?

 

[SOULPEDL]

You sound overly concerned with potential risks. You should probably just sell and wait out the periods you are uncomfortable with. You will probably have lower returns but maybe you will sleep better.

Speaking of sleep, I keep waking up really early to check the stock. And that's b/c I keep making as much as I would make in a year's salary - overnight. But I'm sleeping OK on my new hours, just heavily distracted... can you tell?

 

[capster]

Question for the raging bulls with a hold 'em till the wheels fall off strategy.
Would you or do you ever put your shares at risk with selling covered calls? The recent gouging on buying calls has me thinking about selling short term, low probability calls. The way I understand them, at worst, I am forced to sell my 100 shares at the strike price and keep the fee. At best, I still keep the fee and my shares.
The example I'll use here is 3/20/20, $1,200 strike pays $1,600. Would it really be so bad if I sold 100 shares at $1,200 a month from now knowing what I do today.

No, I will not put any shares at risk.

Batteries will have a great day.

Moody’s will upgrade.

S&P 500 will include.

Reporters will show up in LA having been robotaxied from New York.

Conceivably all in the same day.

 

[CorneliusXX]

My own take on this LFP confusion is as follows.

To produce a SR+ Model 3 with 250 mile range Tesla uses a battery pack with x number of Pana 2170 cylindrical cells to achieve this range.

To achieve the same range using CATL prismatic cells they will need more cells with a higher weight/KwH ratio but the cheaper price of the CATL cells makes it economically feasible to just stuff more cells in to achieve the same 250 mile range.

It doesn't imply that CATL prismatic cells are all of a sudden technically superior to the 2170s, to me it just means Tesla has calculated it makes sense to use them in this way to maximise production at this time.

I still think these rumours are dubious. Tesla would need to reengineer either the modules or the packs to make the new format fit. Then Perform all the required testing for the cells.

Even if all that has been done successfully they will still be building the packs or modules by hand or have to rebuild the ghromman manufacturing line to accept the new process.

All that for a short term gain until they have their own cell manufacturing in place.

If the economics work out, then do it. But I think the odds are stacked against this rumour.

 

[M3Rider]

Calling full pack of CATL LFP to do SR and LG Chem NCA to do LR.

This was already called yesterday on twitter.

 

[ggr]

I agree with your examples but I think you had better read your brokerage agreement with regard to your first statement.

My Schwab agreement says that if I open an account with 50K and buy 5K worth of TSLA and then short-sell 1 share of Ford, my entire account is pledged as collateral for that 1share of Ford sold short. And that gives Schwab the right to loan out all my TSLA shares to short-sellers.

I don't have any short sales in my account, nor do I buy or sell any options that have the potential to lose more than the initial cost, but I still have the GTC limit sale order because it's not clear to me that Schwab can't loan out my TSLA shares simply because the account has the potential to be on margin. I could call them and ask them, but there is no guarantee I would get a legally correct answer the first time (and it's a lot easier to place a GTC limit-sell order than to call them).

Mod: Enough discussion of share lending in this thread. It has been done to death multiple times. I'm moving a bunch of posts to the trading thread, but any after this post will simply be deleted. Moving them is hard work on the moderators, deleting them is easier. --ggr

 

[StealthP3D]

This is nothing relative to previous years. It's literally the exact opposite, absurd valuation and relatively bulletproof.

I think the absurd under-valuation of the last couple of years might be skewing your idea of what is reasonable valuation. The fact that it corrected this imbalance so rapidly has you mistakenly believing it must be over-valued now.

Consider this. Yesterday, some very wealthy people who could not possibly care less about Tesla, it's products or mission bought $2.3B in shares that this morning could be sold for $2.7+B....and very few of them are selling. That's insane.

Whenever I think something is insane, but then I notice other, seemingly normal people, think it's normal, I have to ask myself if maybe I have some misconceptions about reality. I would suggest that the people who participated in the offering at $767 not only knew what they were doing but they got a pretty good deal.