Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

"Tests are the primary method of stopping the disease." That's one of the most ridiculous things I've heard of when it comes to medicine/science. So, you've found the source of a community acquired case. Then what? Do you think the transmission is halted during the investigation?

By the time a sick person voluntarily seeks medical care, they’ve already been shedding the virus everywhere. Subclinical infections are never accounted for. How do you think community acquired cases happen?

Once you have an unknown community acquired case, containment has to be thought much broadly. One of the bigger reasons why China is able to bring down rate of new cases is because China's authoritarian style of government can force broad lockdown quarantine. That level of preventative measure most likely won't happen in countries such as the US, where civil rights is a huge deal. (And especially in an election year.) Advising self-quarantine is not the best.

What exactly is your solution?

So far I’ve read you preaching:
Don’t wear masks
Don’t test
Don’t quarantine

Because you think it’s all useless.

Perfect is the enemy of the good. You need to do everything possible to reduce the probability of infections, particularly for very low cost actions like these. Per $, thorough testing of flu cases and hand washing are by far the most effective methods of stopping the virus. It’s ridiculous to attack every method of prevention because it isn’t 100% perfect. It is the same as arguing against self driving cars because they‘ll never have 0% chance of an accident.

 

[anthonyj]

Model 3 is simply dominating in North Jersey. See one every 20-30 seconds on Route 80

 

[KSilver2000]

What exactly is your solution?

So far I’ve read you preaching:
Don’t wear masks
Don’t test
Don’t quarantine

Because you think it’s all useless.

If you actually read everything I wrote, I'm not suggesting anything along the lines of "Don't" anything.
Some people here are posting things in absolute terms, and so I'm just putting FYI's out there. Such as "Tests are the primary method of stopping a disease." I've never said, don't wear a mask. I've been saying a mask by itself worn by a healthy individual is not going to prevent the spread.

I hope we're good.

 

[Eugene Ash]

"Tests are the primary method of stopping the disease." That's one of the most ridiculous things I've heard of when it comes to medicine/science. So, you've found the source of a community acquired case. Then what? Do you think the transmission is halted during the investigation?

By the time a sick person voluntarily seeks medical care, they’ve already been shedding the virus everywhere. Subclinical infections are never accounted for. How do you think community acquired cases happen?

Once you have an unknown community acquired case, containment has to be thought much broadly. One of the bigger reasons why China is able to bring down rate of new cases is because China's authoritarian style of government can force broad lockdown quarantine. That level of preventative measure most likely won't happen in countries such as the US, where civil rights is a huge deal. (And especially in an election year.) Advising self-quarantine is not the best.

Ok, nursing home for the elderly. These have visitor logs, not hard to find who to test. I just don't share your fatalism

 

[Sudre]

NASDAQ data shows that 301,654 shares traded for $674.00 at 7:07 pm. BTW, that's 45.95% of all 656,440 shares that traded during the After-hrs session on Fri, Feb 28, 2020, a huge proportion of trading in a single minute.

Then at 7:08 pm, just 36 shares traded at $673.49, so the SP actually went down after the huge trade made in the previous minute, and volume returned to a trickle.

Indeed, if we look at other trades before and after 7:07 pm we see there is no reaction or change in Share Price and/or Volume due to that outsized trade:

View attachment 516570

This implies strongly that this was a prearranged trade which did not go through the order book, else it would have had substantial effect upon the SP. It did not. Perhaps @Cherry Wine has some insight into the Order Book at the time of this large trade?

The SEC needs to pull the logs for Trades done at 7:07 pm on Fri, Feb 28, 2020 and trace the parties involved. If one of those parties was also involved with naked short selling before 4:00 pm Fri Feb 28, 2002, daily totals for which was reported by FINRA on the same day, that is a violation of the Market Makers Exemption on the prohibition against naked short selling.

Proprietary, for-profit naked short-selling is NOT legal, even by Market-Makers, and on Fri, Feb 28, 2020 this practice significantly distorted the market for TSLA and damaged shareholders. This must be investigated to restore confidence in the market.

#SEC @Hock1 @Fact Checking

Regards,
Lodger

What I find annoying is this should ALL be automated. The government is supposed to be protecting the integrity of the trading system we have. It should not require someone to tell them to do their job. I am fine if the SEC is the only one who can look at the data. A computer at the SEC should be cross checking every single share traded for violations. That would mean no human ever actually sees the data until it kicks out a violation. There is no reason this can not happen in todays world.

If I am speeding down the highway, a cop does not have to wait for someone to report me.

 

[bhtooefr]

Weekend OT:

Turned on my TV this morning and first time ever seeing a Formula-E race being broadcasted on a national sports channel here in Toronto. Never seen a e-race before and the strategies being talked about are so much different from a regular ICEV race. It's all about energy conservation and max energy regen, etc..

View attachment 516383View attachment 516382

It's worth noting that some forms of ICE racing have that as well - Formula 1 and World Endurance Championship LMP1-H both have energy limits (F1 has a ban on refueling, LMP1-H has a rolling average per-lap energy usage limit) that encourage a similar lift-and-coast, then maximize regen, driving style.

(This is also why a lot of the Formula E drivers come from either F1 or endurance racing - the skillsets overlap heavily despite these cars being much lower powered and these races being much shorter.)

That said, to pull this back to Tesla... it seems that the manufacturers are using Formula E as a cheap greenwashing exercise, and I don't see Tesla ever competing in it. (For one thing, the batteries are a standardized part, teams aren't allowed to make their own batteries.) And, Tesla quite frankly doesn't need the R&D or marketing benefit.

 

[KSilver2000]

Ok, nursing home for the elderly. These have visitor logs, not hard to find who to test. I just don't share your fatalism

Sure, something like a visitor log would help. In places of China with more lax quarantines, they've used something similar in residential multi-unit buildings. Each unit is given one card, and so only one individual is allowed to grab necessities at any given time. You have to show that card on exit and reentry.

Edit: But, again, I have to say that by the time an individual self-reports due to relatively severe symptoms, or is notified due to exposure, and is diagnosed, tested, and confirmed, it's too late to stop the spread. That's a lot of time delay between infection and treatment/quarantine. This isn't like a food borne disease where you just track the source and things will be fine.

 

[EVNow]

Italy quarantined the affected towns. Turns out public health emergencies trump civil rights, as they should.

In the west coast now all 3 states have some kind of community spread infection.

We have a nursing home in Kirkland (North-East suburb of Seattle) that has 2 cases - but possibly a lot more that are being tested now. How would you quarantine here ? Entire Kirkland … because that's not even a distinct place. Just a part of the suburbia. Entire King county - that includes Seattle ? Well King country is really contiguous with Snohomish in the north (which also has one case) and Pierce in the south, which is right next to Olympia.

Essentially how would you quarantine a large city in US ?

Only thing you can practically do is to test everyone who has been in close contact with known cases, asking them to stay home until results are out. You can't trace all they people these people have come in contact with in a shop or a mall. You can slow down the spread - not really stop it.

 

[KSilver2000]

Model 3 is simply dominating in North Jersey. See one every 20-30 seconds on Route 80

You must live in a small town A model 3 is sometimes like a high school or college graduation gift.

 

[KSilver2000]

I know this probably belongs in the Cov thread. But, since we've been talking about it.....

Thank goodness, some official recommendations that support what I've been saying.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[Fobble]

In the west coast now all 3 states have some kind of community spread infection.

We have a nursing home in Kirkland (North-East suburb of Seattle) that has 2 cases - but possibly a lot more that are being tested now. How would you quarantine here ? Entire Kirkland … because that's not even a distinct place. Just a part of the suburbia. Entire King county - that includes Seattle ? Well King country is really contiguous with Snohomish in the north (which also has one case) and Pierce in the south, which is right next to Olympia.

Essentially how would you quarantine a large city in US ?

Only thing you can practically do is to test everyone who has been in close contact with known cases, asking them to stay home until results are out. You can't trace all they people these people have come in contact with in a shop or a mall. You can slow down the spread - not really stop it.

What they need to do is at least starting quarantine those who are "suspected" or had close contact with the infected. I don't think that measure has been put in place. All the quarantines so far are those came back from China or the cruise ship in Japan.

 

[UCF3]

NYSE could close trading floor in coronavirus contingency

So the NYSE can’t operate without a human present on the trading floor?

 

[KSilver2000]

NYSE could close trading floor in coronavirus contingency

So the NYSE can’t operate without a human present on the trading floor?

Jeez, I don't know about that. Such a move IMO would probably incite more fear into the markets and the sugar will really hit the fan.

 

[tinm]

Jeez, I don't know about that. Such a move IMO would probably incite more fear into the markets and the sugar will really hit the fan.

A drop to Dow 19,000 within next two weeks would not surprise me in the least. My TSLA buy orders locked and loaded at 400 and 350.

 

[Singer3000]

A drop to Dow 19,000 within next two weeks would not surprise me in the least. My TSLA buy orders locked and loaded at 400 and 350.

We joked here for years when TSLA was range bound that THIS time, it really is the last chance to buy below 300. We all assumed in the last month or two that the joke was finally dead. I’m now not so sure.

Either way, you’d think that buying at 400 - 600 is gonna look like a great entry price 5 years from now. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are better entry points than even that still to come though. Alls you can do is drip buy rather than aiming for the bottom.

 

[thait84]

We joked here for years when TSLA was range bound that THIS time, it really is the last chance to buy below 300. We all assumed in the last month or two that the joke was finally dead. I’m now not so sure.

Either way, you’d think that buying at 400 - 600 is gonna look like a great entry price 5 years from now. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are better entry points than even that still to come though. Alls you can do is drip buy rather than aiming for the bottom.

I have a lot of dry powder ready. I do think that if people have certain entry points where they don't mind accumulating; selling puts and collecting premiums (especially when IV is so high) is a good idea. But I defer to people more knowledgeable than me. (I just buy and hold!)

 

[Navin]

We joked here for years when TSLA was range bound that THIS time, it really is the last chance to buy below 300. We all assumed in the last month or two that the joke was finally dead. I’m now not so sure.

Either way, you’d think that buying at 400 - 600 is gonna look like a great entry price 5 years from now. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are better entry points than even that still to come though. Alls you can do is drip buy rather than aiming for the bottom.

How come you haven't left yet??

 

[EVNow]

What they need to do is at least starting quarantine those who are "suspected" or had close contact with the infected. I don't think that measure has been put in place. All the quarantines so far are those came back from China or the cruise ship in Japan.

No - everyone tested positive or suspected and their family / close contacts are in quarantine.

Infact Kirkland firestation is quarantined.

You can follow live updates here.

Live: 1 King County man dead due to novel coronavirus infection, 2 other people test positive from Kirkland health facility

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

NASDAQ data shows that 301,654 shares traded for $674.00 at 7:07 pm. BTW, that's 45.95% of all 656,440 shares that traded during the After-hrs session on Fri, Feb 28, 2020, a huge proportion of trading in a single minute.

Then at 7:08 pm, just 36 shares traded at $673.49, so the SP actually went down after the huge trade made in the previous minute, and volume returned to a trickle.

Indeed, if we look at other trades before and after 7:07 pm we see there is no reaction or change in Share Price and/or Volume due to that outsized trade:

View attachment 516570

This implies strongly that this was a prearranged trade which did not go through the order book, else it would have had substantial effect upon the SP. It did not. Perhaps @Cherry Wine has some insight into the Order Book at the time of this large trade?

The SEC needs to pull the logs for Trades done at 7:07 pm on Fri, Feb 28, 2020 and trace the parties involved. If one of those parties was also involved with naked short selling before 4:00 pm Fri Feb 28, 2002, daily totals for which was reported by FINRA on the same day, that is a violation of the Market Makers Exemption on the prohibition against naked short selling.

Proprietary, for-profit naked short-selling is NOT legal, even by Market-Makers, and on Fri, Feb 28, 2020 this practice significantly distorted the market for TSLA and damaged shareholders. This must be investigated to restore confidence in the market.

#SEC @Hock1 @Fact Checking

Regards,
Lodger

On Feb 20 there were 400k shares traded the first minute of after hours. At closing price if I remember correctly. I asked about it then and got one answer that said it was standard. Haven't really seen this behavior any other time though so I'm still wondering.

Any chance/risk this was more shenanigans like your post above?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

NYSE could close trading floor in coronavirus contingency

So the NYSE can’t operate without a human present on the trading floor?

The trading floor is just there for tradition isn't it? It's all done by computers now.