Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Only thing that works here is self-quarantine since draconian measures like what they did in China is not possible here (like welding the front door and windows of an apartment complex shut if a case is detected).

Actually, while there were cases of that in Wuhan - 90% of China self-quarantined, and it appears to have worked and the outbreak is receding.

 

[Beltsbear]

Fakebook just cancelled their developer conference over Coronavirus. Any chance the upcoming battery day

China's authoritarian regime worked out for them there. No other country on Earth could have just quarantined 100 million people like China did. China was able to control their outbreak, now what about the rest of the world? Let's put democracy to the test against authoritarianism here I guess.

literly welding community doors shut is an option for them. That would not be possible in the USA.

 

[Open Interest]

From The Economist, February 27, 2020:
"A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions."
The virus is coming
(may be paywalled)

When a paragraph begins with a “broad guess” and then provides a range so broad as to be useless, “25-70 of the population”, the results that follow are entirely without merit. This is the kind of baseless speculation that fuels panic.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why bother? They can snap their fingers and make manufacturing volume increase. No need to juice anything.

Purchase/supply guarantees are indeed effective against supply shocks, but the Chinese central bank often jumps in and eases if they see demand weakness.

The coronavirus is a supply and demand shock at once.

Given the car sector weakness the Chinese government might also intervene directly to increase demand for cars.

 

[EVNow]

Rest of the world is forewarned, there are tests and diagnoses, which might make a bigger difference than authoritarian measures.

I think Europe and other OECD are better than US - like this tweet shows.

Every other country: fear of #coronavirus

United States of America: fear of #coronavirus + medical bills + insurance company bureaucracy + medical debt + medical bankruptcy + being sued or jailed over medical debt​

 

[Zythryn]

I would LOVE to see Tesla reverse course and embrace using EVs to stabilize the grid. And eventually boost renewable adoption via technologies such as V2H. (And maybe even V2G someday, if it ever comes to that). This is by far the best approach for society, even if it may not be the best approach for Tesla's Energy division.

In the USA, this isn't a decision of Tesla's. Regulations simply do not allow it.
Our grid needs to be updated to a 'smart' grid and the regulations need to be updated as well.

Once both of those happen, then Tesla can provide the tech.

 

[dl003]

When a paragraph begins with a “broad guess” and then provides a range so broad as to be useless, “25-70 of the population”, the results that follow are entirely without merit. This is the kind of baseless speculation that fuels panic.

It's widely known that unless you pick a range so comprehensive, as in 10-500, nothing is guaranteed!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It's widely known that unless you pick a range so comprehensive, as in 10-500, nothing is guaranteed!

Today's reminder that he ended up being wrong even with that 10-500 range lul

 

[Tslynk67]

Nice extended interview by Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily with Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, he of the $800 price target

Pierre comes across as a knowledgeable and lovely guy, which is so nice given the vultures and a-holes we've gotten used to.

 

[UCF3]

Turns out public health emergencies trump civil rights, as they should.

False.

I didn’t even have to look and see that you aren’t American.

 

[Singuy]

False.

I didn’t even have to look and see that you aren’t American.

You mean he's not a libertarian.

Public safety has always trumped civil rights in the U.S. The patriot act is one such example. Another one is Stop and Frisk.

 

[Beltsbear]

You mean he's not a libertarian.

Public safety has always trumped civil rights in the U.S. The patriot act is one such example. Another one is Stop and Frisk.

The response to the 1918 Spanish flu quarantined cities and towns and it passed constitutional muster.

 

[Fact Checking]

False.

I didn’t even have to look and see that you aren’t American.

Nor was I talking about America:

Italy quarantined the affected towns. Turns out public health emergencies trump civil rights, as they should.

 

[oldTAVguy]

MOD: Any number of posts on topics far too removed from Tesla - prepping, 9/11 and the like - have been excised.

I keep track of what post # I last read before shutting down. When you delete posts in re-numbers the posts and I have go go back and re-read posts to find the last one I read. Is there a way to just blank or duplicate posts when moved to another topic?

Also could we add ?? for "don't understand your post". To the helpful, informative, like, dislike, funny and love designations?

 

[Causalien]

There are things that we should learn from the countries that overreacted and manages to quell the spread. Things like drive by testing and having the medic visiting the homes instead of having the sick come in. I believe UK, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam deserves some applause. And if proven true, India (hot weather and curry).

And if people can stop saying "Just a flu bro" it'll help others prepare better. There's no cause for panic as only 20% need to go to the hospital and only 5% need to be hooked up to a machine. HOWEVER, if people are not taking precaution when thinking it is just a flu that 20% will be a lot higher and explode our medical care facility in one shot instead of having it spread out over several months.

 

[davecolene0606]

With regard to any info regarding COVID-19, forwarding info other than from WHO, CDC or other official source Is of no productive purpose for this forum.

Opinions do not mix with science and statistics and only lend themselves to the unhelpful spread of misinformation. This will only serve to damage.

If one insists on attaching links pleas make it only to an official source.

Seeing a lot of “concerned” “new” names around here lately.

and oh yea, wash your friggin hands with soap and water(20 seconds), don’t touch your face, cough into a tissue (throw it away after)or your elbow call the Doc if you think ur sick.

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid)

 

[elasalle]

85% of #coronavirus patients in #Shanghai have been discharged from hospitals after recovering as of February 29. Medical expert Zhang Wenhong said the city’s performance in controlling #coronavirus is “excellent”. #COVID19

Global Times on Twitter

 

[copyhacker]

HW3 upgrades are getting smoother:

Smooth HW3 upgrade for 2019 Model X : teslamotors

"Tech was here at 9:40 AM and left at 10:15 AM. No extra smudges, scratches, rips from the technician. All that is left for me to do is drive it around to calibrate the cameras like I did on day one of ownership. Great job from the Tesla Plano service team and Robert."​

That's 35 minutes swap time with approach and pleasantries included, getting closer to Elon's 20 minutes target.

Sounds like this was done via mobile service, which is encouraging, but seems to only be the case for S/X. I set an appointment for an upgrade for my Model 3, and asked for mobile since I’m 100 miles from a SC. I was told they didn’t expect that mobile would ever be an option. Bummer. Hope that changes eventually.

 

[SMAlset]

Don’t know if Gene Munster’s (Loup) article/video interview on Friday on Benzinga was posted already (too many pages to check since Friday morning sorry), but here’s his thoughts on Apple,Tesla and election affects on the market:

https://m.benzinga.com/article/15439758

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, to be sure I took one more look at the definition of Max Pain. In no way does it work like a magnet(ic field), in fact it works in the opposite way:

The closer the current SP is to Max Pain, the less incentive the option writers have to move the SP towards Max Pain and the further away the current SP is from Max Pain, the more incentive the option writers have to move the SP towards Max Pain.

You don't even have to look at the definition. Just go to e.g. opricot.com, type in your favorite stock symbol (duh) and look at the bottom most graph. The area around Max Pain will typically have both the call and put gradient being almost flat (i.e. little change in losses as SP moves a given amount), whereas towards both the lower and upper price extreme the gradient there increases, indicating a more substantial difference in losses as the SP moves a given amount.

To get actual values for a specific example, just take today's graph for TSLA next week, where Max Pain is currently at 780$, with gains at that SP totaling ca. 138M$. Compare it to the SP at 760$ with gains 147M$, so a difference of 9M$ for moving the SP 20$. Compare to the SP being near this week's close at 670$, with gains at 278M$ and 20$ closer to Max Pain, i.e. 690$ with gains there at 236M$, i.e. a drop of 42M$. So the option writers would gain almost 5 times more money by moving the SP 20$ up to 690$, than 20$ up to Max Pain at 780$.

PS. Btw, next week will see almost 38k 100$-puts expire worthlessly...

You are confusing the desires of market makers vs the actual mechanics of the closing/exercising of option contracts. The nearer max pain is, the stronger the influence of these mechanics, the further away it is, the less it has. (Doesn’t mean market makers won’t try other tactics to try and influence the price, but those are risky efforts decided upon by humans rather than the underlying mechanics of the market).