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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This past week, when it went down I felt hungry for more, and when up like today, I regret not buying more. Then I get thoughts of selling the 50 picked up last week... going mental, so doing nothing is a choice. "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice." Rush.
I wonder how much Elon's tweets last night about Giga 3 being back to fully operational and that's Giga 3 supply chain is in intact has affected buying today. With news of every business shutting down, Tesla is in a super unique position to be able to ramp production where the pandemic is subsiding. Sure it's not Q3/Q4 total production rates but it's still way higher than anyone, in any industry is doing.
I'm getting a lot of disagrees in these days, and myabe I *am* grumpy after a 4 week lockdown,
but let me (try to) explain.
My personal opinion is that Musk didn't have the time to study well this epidemic: he has a great software (first principle thinking) but as a neural net he needs good data.
Right now, my argument is that there are not enough good data. In Lombardy die so many people that local newspaper have a dozen page necrology, every day: the fatality rate (meaning the number of deaths) is so off the charts that the most likely explanation is that there are 10x more infected, which simply aren't tested because labs cannot process all the needed tests. I know for a fact that family doctors cannot test patients, are overwhelmed by phone calls everyday and cannot keep up with new patients that show sintoms. I'm actually helping them build a spreadsheet to monitor the syntoms, because at the moment everyone is on his own.
Even journalist right know write in mainstream media that data don't mean anything, at the moment.
And do you trust at 100% Chinese data? Russian data? What about African countries? Do European countries count death "by" CV19 or death "with"? Data is messy at best right now.
I know that some of you just think that Italy is in this mess because we kiss on the cheeks and elder people live with their grandkids, but these are sterotypes or at best gross approximations that are not enough to explain all this.
They can surely be a factor, but numbers show something else is at play. I'm afraid we still don't really know what.
And so there is a non zero possibility that Italy is not just special in this, and other countries can see similar rate of infection and deaths.
Now, once and for all:
I'm not advocating for total shutdown of US plants, total shutdown of the whole economy, etc.
There are probably better strategies, I'm not the one who's able to suggest them.
I'm just saying that Musk is wrong on his Twitter communication about Covid,
because when you have 32M followers, and you downplay an epidemic of these proportions when you base your 3-days old hypothesis on incomplete data, you are wrong by default.
He said that US new cases will be 0 at the end of April: we don't trust his timelines when he know his s**t, do we trust him on this?
Great power comes with great responsibility, and precaution in these cases is a virtue.
No, with great power comes great I²R.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Rumours of Trump shutting down market early next week circling around. This is not from my own source so I can't fully trust it. However, since I am encountering this rumor in many places, I can no longer ignore it. It makes sense, it is what the public wants.
Sold half of my triple bearish bet on SPX. Also got out of most of the options bought but kept all options I wrote.
I expect options to be crushed or run havoc after the market resume. But in the mean time, the theta decay will probably kill most of the option premiums.
Sold half of my triple bearish bet on SPX. Also got out of most of the options bought but kept all options I wrote.
I expect options to be crushed or run havoc after the market resume. But in the mean time, the theta decay will probably kill most of the option premiums.
MODERATOR ALL READ -
Any of you who do more than look at your own posts will have noticed that a LOT of posts are getting deleted, with "Wrong thread"-type notices.
What you might not realize is that repeat offenders also are showing up as being banned. Now, I really hate that term but it is what the TMC platform uses. The less draconian and more accurate term for this 'ban' is "posting privileges canceled for __X__ period". A real banishment is something quite different.
You ALL have had many, many posts and other notifications from Moderators over many, many months about respecting thread topics and other forms of posting responsibly. Moderators cannot be in all places at all times under even the most halcyon conditions, much less so now. So although we would like to be consistent, it never will be so. And that, dear members, is why when we do crack down, we mean it.
Prohibiting posters from posting hurts everyone, as members who fairly consistently provide a real service with high quality posts - not just lazy posters ("yes, that particular point or news item has been discussed already; your bringing it up again simply stuffs up the thread") and goof-offs, let alone trolls - will be subject to this, depriving others of their insights.
Any of you who do more than look at your own posts will have noticed that a LOT of posts are getting deleted, with "Wrong thread"-type notices.
What you might not realize is that repeat offenders also are showing up as being banned. Now, I really hate that term but it is what the TMC platform uses. The less draconian and more accurate term for this 'ban' is "posting privileges canceled for __X__ period". A real banishment is something quite different.
You ALL have had many, many posts and other notifications from Moderators over many, many months about respecting thread topics and other forms of posting responsibly. Moderators cannot be in all places at all times under even the most halcyon conditions, much less so now. So although we would like to be consistent, it never will be so. And that, dear members, is why when we do crack down, we mean it.
Prohibiting posters from posting hurts everyone, as members who fairly consistently provide a real service with high quality posts - not just lazy posters ("yes, that particular point or news item has been discussed already; your bringing it up again simply stuffs up the thread") and goof-offs, let alone trolls - will be subject to this, depriving others of their insights.
larmor
Active Member
this highlights the need to have GF for each continent. And where is that Alien dreadnaught? Can we presume that a portion of GF in Berlin will be dedicated to making the stamping machines, robots, etc for other GFs?
In Norway - it's not end of the month - but so far:
23 Teslas delivered today.
646 delivered this month.
927 this quarter.
Finally Model 3 is on top of the list for March with 568. Before e-Tron with 567 and Leaf with 366.
YTD TM3 is #6 far behind e-Tron. 787 vs 2658.
Sources: Tesla Registration Stats and Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Edit: Pasted the wrong number for March.
23 Teslas delivered today.
646 delivered this month.
927 this quarter.
Finally Model 3 is on top of the list for March with 568. Before e-Tron with 567 and Leaf with 366.
YTD TM3 is #6 far behind e-Tron. 787 vs 2658.
Sources: Tesla Registration Stats and Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Edit: Pasted the wrong number for March.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Ya hopefully not. Philipines did it first, so that was probably the globalist's experiment to see how it turned out.
That's why I only sold half. I don't have conviction on this, but the impact if true would devastate all leveraged and derivative products. Not a risk to take.
So trying to make sense of this price action...do people still believe they lose money on every car so not making them is a good thing?
Fear Of Missing Out. Every TSLA investor with a brain knows the stock will be way up eventually. They sold only because they thought others would sell -- a self-fulfilling prophesy. Now some are buying back because they think others are buying back, while some like @Ellec are still playing the game of Guess The Sentiment.
It's like people standing on their seats at a rock concert. If everyone would just sit the hell down, everyone would be able to see.
Cuomo orders non-essential remain home, coronavirus cases top 7,100
" Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday ordered all employees of "non-essential" businesses to stay home. The order will go into effect Sunday."
"The governor on Friday again said that there is a critical need for more ventilators and he asked county health departments to loan or sell them to the state if they have any that are not in use.
"The ventilators are to this war what missiles were to World War II," Cuomo said. "We need ventilators.""
Hopefully Tesla or SpaceX can really come through and make ventilators.
Edit: Mods - I copied this into the Coronavirus thread. Feel free to delete this if it doesn't belong here.
" Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday ordered all employees of "non-essential" businesses to stay home. The order will go into effect Sunday."
"The governor on Friday again said that there is a critical need for more ventilators and he asked county health departments to loan or sell them to the state if they have any that are not in use.
"The ventilators are to this war what missiles were to World War II," Cuomo said. "We need ventilators.""
Hopefully Tesla or SpaceX can really come through and make ventilators.
Edit: Mods - I copied this into the Coronavirus thread. Feel free to delete this if it doesn't belong here.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Correct me if I'm remembering incorrectly, but wasn't the plan all along that Shanghai production would be used to fill demand all over Asia, ie. not limited to China?
Very shortly we should learn what the instantaneous Model 3 demand is in China in the midst of a Coronavirus pandemic. If the entire output of G3 stays in China, it would indicate effectively unlimited demand in China going forward. By the Q1 earnings call, we should have a very good idea of China Model 3 demand.
This is important because there is a widespread belief circulating in the investment community that general auto demand in China, and EV demand especially, has fallen off a cliff. I think we are about to learn just how big Chinese demand is, even in the shadow of a global epidemic. This is what moves the share price of a company like TSLA.
So basically a new tent for Model Y?
Nothing official from Tesla that they are doing something specific to take advantage of the shutdown. May already have been in the plans as they were talking about Y production in different stages before. They were pulling permits before for the South paint shop to ramp production further. Probably easier to make changes when nobody is there though.
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Tesla is going to use factory shutdowns to do upgrades and improve production - Electrek
However, we’ve learned that Tesla is going to make the best of it. The company can still use a small workforce at the factory and it plans to make upgrades to its production lines.
At the Fremont factory, Tesla was already planning some major expansions to increase its Model Y production capacity.
It's good that the factory shut down can be used to make the company stronger once this passes.
However, we’ve learned that Tesla is going to make the best of it. The company can still use a small workforce at the factory and it plans to make upgrades to its production lines.
At the Fremont factory, Tesla was already planning some major expansions to increase its Model Y production capacity.
It's good that the factory shut down can be used to make the company stronger once this passes.
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