Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

First of all, I don't buy the Tesla Network talk. Robotaxis in the next 5 years are a fantasy IMO.

Secondly, Tesla producing all of the cars for the world is so far beyond fantasy I don't know what to call it.

However, I believe this crisis will cause Tesla's EV technology and production lead to widen significantly. The lead will become an even bigger joke than it is now. The market really underappreciates this.

I think Battery Day is going to be a huge landmark in Tesla's history. I'm torn between thinking (1) it will be nuclear fuel for TSLA to take a big jump or (2) the market won't appreciate how significant the developments are. Regardless, 10+ years from now, my bet is Battery Day is remembered almost as much as the Model 3 reveal.

Whether it is later this year, sometime next year or a little longer, a ton of folks are going to regret missing out on TSLA at $427.53. The ride will be uncomfortable, but long term Tesla will stun people who still don't get it.

I agree with most of what you say but give the Tesla network some chance, how long it will take is hard to know, but I think Tesla will be first or second. If they are second there will not be far behind first and with the advantage of a lower cost base will dominate the market.

I think Elon, Karpathy and co know what they are doing and know a lot more about it that we do, yes they are probably optimistic but my bet is 6-24 months worth of optimism, not 5 years.

This is an area where I think past progress is no indicator at all of future progress...

The thing that bothers me the most is low sun blinding the cameras, or some other camera obstruction, I think there is a software solution, but the physics of that start out as a big disadvantage...

 

[Opus BC fan]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Dan

I'm guessing a roller coaster. We are very much in uncharted waters. The companies that make up the market indexes will likely change. I think the transition to a new non-fossil-fuel economy will be slowed by government bailouts. I'm feeling very positive about TSLA.

 

[EVNow]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Dan

Epidemiologists think it will be a roller coaster. Anyone who hasn’t yet read the report, pls read the Imperial College study.

We lock down, bring hospitalization to manageable levels. Then everyone wants to lift restrictions and then the cases go up again - forcing us to lock down. No idea how the market will react to this.

We’ll see how Wuhan handles lifting of lockdown and the resulting cases.

 

[Mo City]

Whelp, as I said, you're not alone.

But I'm a little surprised that despite all the evidence, even Tesla fans still doubt that Elon's teams will do what Elon says they will.

Indeed Elon does what he says...except for promises about Autopilot. I could go back to the beginning but won't bother. It is striking how his deeds don't follow up his words. He should stop blowing his credibility.

I mentally separate his comments about AP from everything else he says. If you do that, Elon is very credible.

I don't believe true FSD is necessary for Tesla's long term future, unless someone else actually does it (which is doubtful IMO).

We can probably agree on one thing: If Tesla achieves legit FSD in the next 2 years, they will wipe the floor with anyone in their way. A bloody massacre would ensue.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Recession: Tesla's Biggest Opportunity In A Decade (6 reasons)

 

[LJS22]

First of all, I don't buy the Tesla Network talk. Robotaxis in the next 5 years are a fantasy IMO.

Secondly, Tesla producing all of the cars for the world is so far beyond fantasy I don't know what to call it.

However, I believe this crisis will cause Tesla's EV technology and production lead to widen significantly. The lead will become an even bigger joke than it is now. The market really underappreciates this.

I think Battery Day is going to be a huge landmark in Tesla's history. I'm torn between thinking (1) it will be nuclear fuel for TSLA to take a big jump or (2) the market won't appreciate how significant the developments are. Regardless, 10+ years from now, my bet is Battery Day is remembered almost as much as the Model 3 reveal.

Whether it is later this year, sometime next year or a little longer, a ton of folks are going to regret missing out on TSLA at $427.53. The ride will be uncomfortable, but long term Tesla will stun people who still don't get it.

This year will be big. Tesla will revolutionize the auto industry again with their advancements, and just as America is licking their wounds from a tough few months Elon and SpaceX are going to launch astronauts from American soil. We can all rally behind that.

 

[StealthP3D]

They are only trying to pick up the brand for pennies, rest of the company goes into trash can.
Like what they did with Volvo.

It seems Geely (parent company of Volvo) is copying whatever Elon Musk is doing;

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. said it is investing $326 million in a new satellite manufacturing plant in China in efforts to provide more accurate data for autonomous vehicles.

Geely to Invest $326 Million in Satellite Manufacturing Plant | 2020-03-13 | ASSEMBLY

Except, as far as I know, Musk has specified that their sat network won't be used to support their autonomous driving. Also, I think Geely probably needs a solution to get those satellites into orbit. SpaceX?

 

[PeterJA]

Indeed Elon does what he says...except for promises about Autopilot. I could go back to the beginning but won't bother. It is striking how his deeds don't follow up his words. He should stop blowing his credibility.

I mentally separate his comments about AP from everything else he says. If you do that, Elon is very credible.

Mmm, Elon has underestimated the time required for other things beside Autopilot. Yes, there was no coast-to-coast autonomous trip when predicted... no expansion of Navigate On Autopilot to cities last year (although the December update started recognizing stoplights, etc.). But critics have howled at delays in other deeds: Model X release... Model 3 ramp-up... solar panels at Superchargers... probably a list that I could find in the archives of Shortsville. But here we are.

I don't see a clear distinction between Autopilot overoptimism and other promises. I do see a consistent pattern of Tesla doing promised deeds, sometimes late.

We can probably agree on one thing: If Tesla achieves legit FSD in the next 2 years, they will wipe the floor with anyone in their way. A bloody massacre would ensue.

Yes sir.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The only thing which can kill a triple-witching hour is Donald Trump. He had a meltdown during his presser and blew the market up, causing it to drop 5% on a day when it was headed for a nearly 0% open to close due to quadruple Max Pain.

But now all bets are off. Monday might still be a bloodbath, or it might break the pattern and open with a big jump because the other pattern we have been following is that the day after a decline into close is typically a rise at open.

I'm still expecting next week overall to be blood red, especially since on Thursday everyone is expecting the weekly jobless report to top 2 million new claims. We are not near the bottom. No one knows where the bottom is anymore, because we've never gone straight from 12-year bull run to Ice Age instantly before like this.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think Tesla can "produce all of the cars for the world," and likely will. Shorts and competitors have no clue what's coming for them.

Well, the word "all" is a big word. But I do think that a 50% market share is a definite possibility.

I've noticed that one of the biggest doubts the average person has about the speed of the EV revolution is more on the demand side. People don't think EV's will be desirable enough for a transition to EV's measured in 10 years rather than 2-4 decades. Or that it will take governments mandating EV's and out-lawing ICE cars for people to make the switch, neither of which is true.

People will switch in droves based on economics alone. They will do it without government mandates and this doesn't require $4/gal gas either. But the advantages will go beyond simple economics and this is what some people are just beginning to discover. The sense of instant control an EV drivetrain provides. The instant power. Then there is the freedom from having to visit gas stations. Some people are just beginning to learn they can do 95% of their charging at home. The lack of stinky exhaust on those cold mornings is another surprise for many new EV owners.

The disruption of the Coronaviruus pandemic will hasten the EV revolution. People are reappraising what is important in their life. Certainly, health comes near the top of that list. Right now, the air around the world is cleaner than it has been for decades. Auto traffic volumes and distances have been dramatically slashed. Polluting factories have been shuttered. Oil refinery production has been cut in half. Planes are not flying routes that were once full.

If you have clear skies, step outside right now and look up. Tell me if the night sky does not look purer and more crystalline. If the stars are not better defined on a more beautiful background. I just did and the sight is amazing. This is what we could have every night once we break our addiction to fossil fuels. Change is coming, people are slowly but surely starting to "get it" and, ironically, the Coronavirus is helping to wake the people up.

 

[StealthP3D]

@KSilver2000 is back as a 90s American rapper.

Well, that didn't last long.

Some people think the rules don't apply to them!

 

[RobStark]

This assumption is repeated here occasionally, but I doubt it's true.

Ask yourself: Who can scale up BEV production faster? Tesla or the LAMEs (Legacy Automotive Manufacturing Enterprise)?

LAMEs don't have and won't have the battery production capacity that Tesla has and will have soon. Some LAMEs announced investments in battery factories, but as I recall, the planned capacity (30GWh?) is what Tesla started building years ago and will far exceed soon.

LAMEs don't have the battery technology that Tesla has -- the Maxwell/Hibar/Jeff Dahn secret sauce that will "blow our minds" in a month or two, according to Elon. This tech is rumored to dramatically reduce production cost and time.

LAMEs might not have the capital required to scale up BEV production as fast as Tesla will soon, especially after the Great Virus Panic. Yes, they might get bailed out yet again, but bailouts can't make the public buy their inferior products.

Most people don't understand or believe the stupendous profits that are inbound from Tesla Network, which Elon said will launch by year-end, so maybe it will be end of next year. Tesla Network will be such a gusher of cash that Tesla will be able to build gigafactories by the dozen instead of one at a time. By then, the advanced manufacturing tech that Tesla has been working on for years ("the machine that builds the machine") may be ready for mass replication. Even without cash from Tesla Network, the capital markets will be begging Tesla to take their money to build factories.

I think Tesla can "produce all of the cars for the world," and likely will. Shorts and competitors have no clue what's coming for them.

By government fiat Tesla will not be allowed an automotive monopoly.

More so on foreign soil.

 

[Buckminster]

Update from the UK:

• Supermarket shelves are worst ever. Literally zero fresh vegetables at my local. First hour of opening is senior citizens only. Key workers to get something similar.
• Bars and restaurants shutdown in the last few hours - many went partying as a last hurrah.
• Schools closed as of yesterday - 17/18 year olds won't be coming back.
• My parents are self isolating with 50 days food. No intention to go to the supermarket.
• My team have all been WFH for 4 days - going fine. Feels sustainable with reasonable productivity.
• Government spending like there is no tomorrow.
• Several people I know have been affected financially.

It sounds worse than the reality in my bubble - no panic apart from the expected panic buying.

 

[EVNow]

Rob, that is so misleading I don't know how you can present it as "moving too fast". The building was actually built in 2014, converted to a hotel last year before the Coronavirus was a known problem. This had nothing to do with the hospitals built in record time in response to the pandemic.

From what I read, the builder wanted to make space for a shop in the ground floor (a coomon practice) but decided to break down a load bearing wall. Again not uncommon-not just in China, but India too.

 

[PeterJA]

By government fiat Tesla will not be allowed an automotive monopoly.

More so on foreign soil.

Seems like this has been discussed here before. Government fiat cannot force you or me to buy a GM or Ford or Porsche with half the range and twice the price of a Tesla. Google and Facebook and Amazon are essentially monopolies, with no government fiat in sight.

 

[TrendTrader007]

i would like to draw attention to the fact that $tsla is one of the rare stocks in this market that is currently almost 15% OVER its 200 day moving average and significantly outperforming the broader markets. on a day like today when $compq closed -18% below 200 dMA and fell -3.7% $tsla sp barely closed in red
this can only mean one thing- there are longer term underlying bullish undercurrents supporting sp like a champ and recovery in $tsla sp is likely to be V shaped-fast and furious and if indeed $tsla takes over much of the global auto-market share due to obvious reasons with COVID-19 then $968 will look like a distant blip in the rear-view mirror within the next several months or latest within couple years
as an aside my crazy 100% tsla all call portfolio has done super-crazy things within the last several months and i stay super-long and extremely bullish

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems like this has been discussed here before. Government fiat cannot force you or me to buy a GM or Ford or Porsche with half the range and twice the price of a Tesla. Google and Facebook and Amazon are essentially monopolies, with no government fiat in sight.

Exactly. Monopolies are not illegal and there are no laws preventing them. This is widely misunderstood. What is illegal is using the power of a monopoly to engage in abusive business practices that stifle the ability of potential competitors to compete. In general, capitalism rewards monopolies with superior profits. Indeed, having a bonafide monopoly, one that was achieved through superior innovation and execution, as opposed to oppressive business tactics, is the pinnacle achievement and the sought after goal of a business achieving capitalistic success. It's what capitalism wants to encourage and reward.

 

[Evoforce]

Seems like this has been discussed here before. Government fiat cannot force you or me to buy a GM or Ford or Porsche with half the range and twice the price of a Tesla. Google and Facebook and Amazon are essentially monopolies, with no government fiat in sight.

Not yet but our country has a history of breaking monopolies. It generally is thought to protect consumers.

 

[Fact Checking]

So much posting in this thread it's hard to track. What's the final consensus on Battery Day vs Company Talk? My assumption was they are one in the same, two posters said no there are two separate events.

I don't think there's a consensus. Elon first announced "Battery Investor Day", then in a tweet he announced:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Tesla April company talk will be from our Giga New York factory, where we make SolarGlass & several other products. Will also offer customer & media tours."​

There has been no clarification on whether this is the Battery Investor Day - I initially assumed it was, because Elon references this as something already mentioned - and Battery Day was the only previous announcement.

I don't agree with those who say that there will definitely be two events. We don't know.

​

 

[Fact Checking]

Not yet but our country has a history of breaking monopolies. It generally is thought to protect consumers.

The U.S. last broke a monopoly in 1981, i.e. almost 40 years ago. It's both legally and politically difficult:

• under the Sherman Act and its precedents a conviction and breakup requires the finding of a "predatory monopoly", which only the most arrogant monopolies do and leave evidence of doing.
• Clever corporate messaging and lobbying re-phrased breakups as a "corporate death sentence" which couldn't be farther from the truth. (The Baby Bells thrived after the breakup of Ma Bell.) This made it politically difficult even for Democrats. (Not to mention the unwillingness of the "the market can do no wrong, ever" modern conservatives.)

To suggest that the US has a "history" of breaking up monopolies is like suggesting that Mark B. Spiegel has a history of telling the truth: while it does happen occasionally, it is not the typical pattern at all and takes a lot of effort.

I do think Tesla and SpaceX both have good chances to gain natural monopolies in several markets, not the least because they already do:

• SpaceX has already cornered the commercial launch market globally, through unbeatable launch prices,
• and Tesla own around like 80% of the future car market in the U.S. (those ICE sales are a different, legacy market which does not matter much)

High rate innovation tends to breed natural monopolies.

As long as Tesla and SpaceX is careful to not even leave the impression that they are abusing their monopolies, they'll be fine in the U.S.