Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

Well, over the last few weeks I've been doing mostly puts on stocks like Apple, Starbucks, QQQ, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines, GM, and Fiat Chrysler America.
This has done extremely well. Yesterday (Thursday) I had decided to switch to bullish.thank goodness I didn't do it.

Looking at the number of Corona infections increasing at the current rates we're going to have a meltdown. It's not going to be a turnaround in 30 days. It's going to be at least two months and probably more. Therefore I'm going to stay bearish. I still have my Tesla stock but I'm going to stick with puts for the other companies.

The only calls I have right now (other than Tesla leaps) is in Delta Airlines. Will close those a few hours after they announce the airline bailout.
Note: I had puts on Delta airline until Wednesday.

Until I see a change in the number infected I'm afraid I'm going to stay bearish. When the numbers change I'm going to go all in.
Still have my TSLA core shares.

EDIT Take a look at the model Y delivery thread.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think domestic (US) production at Giga Nevada is primarily for auto and LG et al have been supplying Tesla Energy.

Rumor: LG Chem Was Tesla's Only Battery Supplier In China In February

 

[Johnny Ma]

Rumor: LG Chem Was Tesla's Only Battery Supplier In China In February

Right. To clarify, I vaguely remember Elon saying they've been using "scraps" (i.e. cell supply from non-Panasonic companies) for TE in the US. I thought that included LG. Could be wrong.

The Tesla bull in me wants to spin this as not a big deal, since there's going to be lower demand for all autos, EVs certainly included, in 2020. The Tesla bull in me also very much wants to see what comes of this. Elon said that suppliers placing them at the back of the line early on caused them to adapt and grow.

Overall, not hugely concerned with the Panasonic temporary shutdown.

 

[PeterJA]

...Tesla cannot produce all of the [electric] cars for the world.

This assumption is repeated here occasionally, but I doubt it's true.

Ask yourself: Who can scale up BEV production faster? Tesla or the LAMEs (Legacy Automotive Manufacturing Enterprise)?

LAMEs don't have and won't have the battery production capacity that Tesla has and will have soon. Some LAMEs announced investments in battery factories, but as I recall, the planned capacity (30GWh?) is what Tesla started building years ago and will far exceed soon.

LAMEs don't have the battery technology that Tesla has -- the Maxwell/Hibar/Jeff Dahn secret sauce that will "blow our minds" in a month or two, according to Elon. This tech is rumored to dramatically reduce production cost and time.

LAMEs might not have the capital required to scale up BEV production as fast as Tesla will soon, especially after the Great Virus Panic. Yes, they might get bailed out yet again, but bailouts can't make the public buy their inferior products.

Most people don't understand or believe the stupendous profits that are inbound from Tesla Network, which Elon said will launch by year-end, so maybe it will be end of next year. Tesla Network will be such a gusher of cash that Tesla will be able to build gigafactories by the dozen instead of one at a time. By then, the advanced manufacturing tech that Tesla has been working on for years ("the machine that builds the machine") may be ready for mass replication. Even without cash from Tesla Network, the capital markets will be begging Tesla to take their money to build factories.

I think Tesla can "produce all of the cars for the world," and likely will. Shorts and competitors have no clue what's coming for them.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I’m sure Italy and Iran would love to give credit to China for all of the lives they have saved.

@KSilver2000 is back as a 90s American rapper.

 

[EVNow]

I’m sure Italy and Iran would love to give credit to China for all of the lives they have saved.

To make a meta point- this is all because of globalization. If so much of world manufacturing wasn’t in China, the world would have closed off travel to China much earlier. Sometimes we have to take the bad with the good.

ps: Iran didn’t close travel with China because of a political decision, as China is one of their few allies. Blame it on trade restrictions.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Dan

 

[Johnny Ma]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Dan

Yes.

 

[StealthP3D]

The next one will be about Diversification.

Diversification! I love it.

So you will be showing us how to reduce the volatility of our portfolio with a blend of Tesla bonds, convertible bonds, direct TSLA shares, TSLA Calls, Leaps and writing (selling) TSLA puts?

 

[Mo City]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Dan

I think the market will suddenly bump upward with emotional joy + FOMO when everyone thinks the corner has been turned, then decline back a bit and steadily recover (with more volatility than normal).

TSLA will also do the above except the ride will be spastic and nausea inducing.

I'm curious if Battery Day happens in April if things haven't turned. Probably not.

 

[PeterJA]

Nobody discussed this news? I kicked myself again today for not selling at 450+

Tesla partner Panasonic is shutting down its operations at Nevada gigafactory – TechCrunch

Son/daughter, I hope you don't bruise easily, because with that attitude and this stock, you will be kicking yourself every day or two.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So much posting in this thread it's hard to track. What's the final consensus on Battery Day vs Company Talk? My assumption was they are one in the same, two posters said no there are two separate events.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a question for everyone her. I know this is pretty much uncharted waters so it will all be speculation but...

When this all runs it's course and things start to return to "normal", whatever that is, how do you think the market will recover? Slow steady rise, roller coaster fluctuations or quick rise?

Individual stocks will, of course, take their own individual courses. The recovery will be a stock-picker's market.

I expect the overall market to have a blow-out bottom followed by a series of sharp rises with intermediate reversals with rapidly decreasing amplitudes and a long, slow slog back to previous highs lasting probably three to five years. Of course, predicting the future is like rolling the craps dice.

 

[EVNow]

So China didn’t try to cover it up for weeks until they loss control, thereby allowing the virus to spread across the globe?

What do you think of my meta point ?

 

[Mo City]

This assumption is repeated here occasionally, but I doubt it's true.

Ask yourself: Who can scale up BEV production faster? Tesla or the LAMEs (Legacy Automotive Manufacturing Enterprise)?

LAMEs don't have and won't have the battery production capacity that Tesla has and will have soon. Some LAMEs announced investments in battery factories, but as I recall, the planned capacity (30GWh?) is what Tesla started building years ago and will far exceed soon.

LAMEs don't have the battery technology that Tesla has -- the Maxwell/Hibar/Jeff Dahn secret sauce that will "blow our minds" in a month or two, according to Elon. This tech is rumored to dramatically reduce production cost and time.

LAMEs might not have the capital required to scale up BEV production as fast as Tesla will soon, especially after the Great Virus Panic. Yes, they might get bailed out yet again, but bailouts can't make the public buy their inferior products.

Most people don't understand or believe the stupendous profits that are inbound from Tesla Network, which Elon said will launch by year-end, so maybe it will be end of next year. Tesla Network will be such a gusher of cash that Tesla will be able to build gigafactories by the dozen instead of one at a time. By then, the advanced manufacturing tech that Tesla has been working on for years ("the machine that builds the machine") may be ready for mass replication. Even without cash from Tesla Network, the capital markets will be begging Tesla to take their money to build factories.

I think Tesla can "produce all of the cars for the world," and likely will. Shorts and competitors have no clue what's coming for them.

First of all, I don't buy the Tesla Network talk. Robotaxis in the next 5 years are a fantasy IMO.

Secondly, Tesla producing all of the cars for the world is so far beyond fantasy I don't know what to call it.

However, I believe this crisis will cause Tesla's EV technology and production lead to widen significantly. The lead will become an even bigger joke than it is now. The market really underappreciates this.

I think Battery Day is going to be a huge landmark in Tesla's history. I'm torn between thinking (1) it will be nuclear fuel for TSLA to take a big jump or (2) the market won't appreciate how significant the developments are. Regardless, 10+ years from now, my bet is Battery Day is remembered almost as much as the Model 3 reveal.

Whether it is later this year, sometime next year or a little longer, a ton of folks are going to regret missing out on TSLA at $427.53. The ride will be uncomfortable, but long term Tesla will stun people who still don't get it.

 

[MC3OZ]

It might be a hit on its balance sheet for now, but I think that ultimately, it should turn out to be a good thing and more consistent delivery operations for Tesla. One could even say that it should flatten the curve of Tesla’s quarterly deliveries.

This quote from Electrek rings true to me...

if Tesla accidentally ends Q1 with higher than normal inventory, then that accidentally smooths out the wave to some extent, a production shutdown for a few weeks is no big deal.

Yes there is a hit to cash flow, but probably not much worse than Q1 2019....

And it all depends on where that inventory is stacked, when production resumes the priority is to ship to places with lower inventory.
When production resumes the run rate may be higher.

Perhaps having taken the hit and started with higher levels of inventory, Tesla will simply try to optimise to keep inventory around the same levels at the end of each quarter.

This is how it goes with quarterly reporting, unexpected events can lead distortions in a single quarter that resolve themselves over the course of a year.

EDIT:: The one very interesting thing is Tesla was keen to keep Fremont producing cars, it may have ultimately been the Panasonic Nevada shutdown that stopped them or some other supplier. So no evidence they are concerned about inventory build up.

 

[StealthP3D]

I could see that being a very temporary thing though. People aren't thinking about cars right now but if they have the money and stable employment (which most Tesla buyers likely have) then once they adjust to the new normal they might get back to buying.

This is true. After being cooped up with home lockdown, on paid leave, with no vacations, no meals out, no parties, nothing is more liberating than ordering a new Tesla from the comfort/safety of your living room or den (heck, do it from bed while your spouse is in a good mood) and then, when the Coronavirus settles down, getting in your new, all-electric Tesla with a touch-free delivery experience and taking it for a spin in the mountains on a nice Spring day. Ahhh, life is good!

 

[AudubonB]

I would support shutting down the LATimes if there wasn’t such a huge shortage of toilet paper.

Dear Russ:
I am sitting in the smallest room in my house with your latest wholly irresponsible, obviously truth-challenged and evidently DarkWorld-sponsored screed in front of me.

In a moment, it will be behind me.

 

[MC3OZ]

So much posting in this thread it's hard to track. What's the final consensus on Battery Day vs Company Talk? My assumption was they are one in the same, two posters said no there are two separate events.

My vote is that they are the same thing, and it will held towards the end of April.

 

[PeterJA]

First of all, I don't buy the Tesla Network talk. Robotaxis in the next 5 years are a fantasy IMO....

Whelp, as I said, you're not alone.

But I'm a little surprised that despite all the evidence, even Tesla fans still doubt that Elon's teams will do what Elon says they will.