Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wrong. The EC tax credit still exists for the companies that have stalled. So bringing it back would currently only benefit Tesla and GM consumers by lowering the price of the cars from them. But if it is brought back it should be modified to end for everybody at the same time. i.e. encourage them to all start moving quickly.

I guess I should have been more clear in my statement. I'm against new EV incentives like extending the ev tax credit to say 500k vehicles sold in the US. Tesla would get very limited benefit from that and it would mostly go towards helping Tesla's competitors. To everyone that would say "But it's for the greater good of EV adoption"......yeah I don't buy that. The way traditional automakers are approaching EV's will take forever for EV adoption to make a difference in climate chance. Bold steps are needed and traditional auto needs to go way the way of the dinosaurs at this point.

I would be in favor of a ev tax credit extension to year say 2023......no sales limit. But there's a zero percent chance of that happening.

 

[Artful Dodger]

More trading execution issues today, this time outage hits MorganStanley online trading:

"Morgan Stanley's online trading system down" | CNBC (1:36)

 

[JRP3]

Sanders is standing up for the wage workers as the GOP tries to make changes to the bill that would reduce unemployment benefits.

I disagreed with you because it's GOP senators who would be delaying the bill by adding last-minute changes (reducing benefits for the working guy) and Sanders is saying "Oh, no you don't".

I didn't write the article or the headline, so you weren't disagreeing with me I fully support what Sanders is trying to do.

 

[UncaNed]

Wash sale only applies when you sell a stock at a loss. Therefore I never had to worry about wash sale - why would you be selling TSLA at a loss? Have unrealized loss? Just hold.

Well, it would also be really hard to have unrealized loss in TSLA for long term investor here. We are well above where the stock was in all previous years.

Selling shares to buy call options perhaps?

EDIT- selling OTHER stock at a loss to buy TSLA might trigger WASH.

The takeaway from the replies about WASH rules is many of us here don't understand them. Mis-assigned buys and sells can cost some of us quite a lot. If you're new to investing and do much trading, you might want to learn about WASH rules, FIFO, and assigning by ID number.

New investors and traders should be informed about WASH. I had no idea it existed till too late.

 

[Mkorpal]

Selling shares to buy call options perhaps?

The takeaway from the replies about WASH rules is many of us here don't understand them. Mis-assigned buys and sells can cost some of us quite a lot. If you're new to investing and do much trading, you might want to learn about WASH rules, FIFO, and assigning by ID number.

just to be clear, selling shares to buy options within 30 days is still considered a wash.

 

[humbaba]

the most important thing to understand with measurements is what they are measuring -- and what they are not. Google search trends measures the relative frequency of searches for different terms. That's it. It does not measure interest in purchasing a Model Y or any other vehicle. While I understand the desire to have a proxy, that is even worse than using Ihor's short interest data as a proxy for actual short interest. And Ihor is at least trying to measure short interest whereas Google has nary a concern about their search trends measuring anything other than search trends.

If measuring consumer demand was as easy as watching google trends then companies would not be spending money trying to actually measure consumer demand.

While discussion about demand for Tesla's products is certainly good fodder for this thread, I fail to see how misuse of google trends is.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Looks like the $2T package has passed the Senate and on its way to the House. Not sure if the relief that this has finally passed will be enough to counterbalance the awful job numbers

 

[deffu]

Looks like the $2T package has passed the Senate and on its way to the House. Not sure if the relief that this has finally passed will be enough to counterbalance the awful job numbers

I think without the stimulus package, we would be already below 2000 for sp.

 

[dw4ngg]

Looks like the $2T package has passed the Senate and on its way to the House. Not sure if the relief that this has finally passed will be enough to counterbalance the awful job numbers

I’ll venture a guess that unemployment is baked in... buy the news?

 

[ZeApelido]

the most important thing to understand with measurements is what they are measuring -- and what they are not. Google search trends measures the relative frequency of searches for different terms. That's it. It does not measure interest in purchasing a Model Y or any other vehicle. While I understand the desire to have a proxy, that is even worse than using Ihor's short interest data as a proxy for actual short interest. And Ihor is at least trying to measure short interest whereas Google has nary a concern about their search trends measuring anything other than search trends.

If measuring consumer demand was as easy as watching google trends then companies would not be spending money trying to actually measure consumer demand.

While discussion about demand for Tesla's products is certainly good fodder for this thread, I fail to see how misuse of google trends is.

Oh ok it's not correlated at all. Just a coincidence that all other make/models have plummeted similar amounts and now companies with worse demand are advertising crazy incentives.

 

[ckessel]

just to be clear, selling shares to buy options within 30 days is still considered a wash.

Seems like anyone that has bought weekly options that resulted in a loss and then bought other options after that would have a wash sale?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Stimulus package: Senate approves historic $2 trillion stimulus deal amid growing coronavirus fears - CNNPolitics | Updated 11:58 PM ET, Wed March 25, 2020

"Washington (CNN) The Senate on Wednesday approved a historic, $2 trillion stimulus package to provide a jolt to an economy reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, capping days of intense negotiations that produced one of the most expensive and far-reaching measures Congress has ever considered.

"In a remarkable sign of overwhelming bipartisan support for the legislation, the vote was unanimous at 96-0."​

Four U.S. Senators did not vote. Working to confirm if they are in 'self-isolation'. Here:

"Three senators were absent from the late-night roll call because of the novel coronavirus. Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, has contracted Covid-19, while two Utah Republicans, Senators Mitt Romney and Mike Lee, were in self-isolation out of an abundance of caution after spending time with Mr. Paul. Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Republican, also missed the vote because he wasn’t feeling well and had left Washington to return home out of an abundance of caution, a spokesman said."​

 

[Artful Dodger]

the most important thing to understand with measurements is what they are measuring -- and what they are not. Google search trends measures the relative frequency of searches for different terms. That's it. It does not measure interest in purchasing a Model Y or any other vehicle. While I understand the desire to have a proxy, that is even worse than using Ihor's short interest data as a proxy for actual short interest. And Ihor is at least trying to measure short interest whereas Google has nary a concern about their search trends measuring anything other than search trends.

If measuring consumer demand was as easy as watching google trends then companies would not be spending money trying to actually measure consumer demand.

While discussion about demand for Tesla's products is certainly good fodder for this thread, I fail to see how misuse of google trends is.

No more replies on 'Google Trends' please.

 

[Thekiwi]

the most important thing to understand with measurements is what they are measuring -- and what they are not. Google search trends measures the relative frequency of searches for different terms. That's it. It does not measure interest in purchasing a Model Y or any other vehicle. While I understand the desire to have a proxy, that is even worse than using Ihor's short interest data as a proxy for actual short interest. And Ihor is at least trying to measure short interest whereas Google has nary a concern about their search trends measuring anything other than search trends.

If measuring consumer demand was as easy as watching google trends then companies would not be spending money trying to actually measure consumer demand.

While discussion about demand for Tesla's products is certainly good fodder for this thread, I fail to see how misuse of google trends is.

All car sales are tanking right now - and so are the associated search terms on google trends. The odds that the fall in the search terms for Tesla models is not translating to a fall in sales are very slim. Google trends is actually one of the better broad indicators for near term Tesla demand.

==========

Alexa Site ranking also indicates a big fall off in site visits from late February:

 

[MC3OZ]

No more replies on 'Google Trends' please.

Once they know you are a mod, everyone will ignore you

 

[ZeApelido]

No more replies on 'Google Trends' please.

Why not?

Certainly the refutations to the analysis so far have been underwhelming, but someone might bring some good insight as to why it's not a big deal...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why not?

Certainly the refutations to the analysis so far have been underwhelming, but someone might bring some good insight as to why it's not a big deal...

Everyone has had their say, and entrenched views are overtaking productive discussion.

Its time to move on. Back to TSLA and market action, please.

 

[Thekiwi]

Why not?

Certainly the refutations to the analysis so far have been underwhelming, but someone might bring some good insight as to why it's not a big deal...

I agree - and we should continue paying attention for when the uptick in Google trends portends Tesla sales returning to normal (or not as the case maybe)

 

[RobStark]

Automotive News

 

[Artful Dodger]

Our own @DaveT has a new video out titled: "Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory Will Make Billions (Ep. 54)" (9:16).

In it, Dave discusses 5 key points for Tesla going forward:

1. How Tesla Shanghai was impacted by the Coronavirus
2. The Role of Government
3. Production Targets
4. Risks and Headwinds
5. What this means for Tesla

Dave also offers his projection for Tesla's 2020 vehicle production:

Spoiler: Tesla 2020 Vehicle Production Estimates

Cheater! Watch from 8:40

CH33RS!