Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

Spoiler: Personal

I found out yesterday evening that one of my friends is in hospital now after testing positive for Covid-19. He work(ed) as a shuttle bus driver at the local International Airport. He stopped work as soon as his onset of symptoms, but that practice no longer seems to be a guarantee against possible further spread. We need universal mass testing ASAP. Silver lining, if my friend recovers and is able to return to work, he will have the benefit of personal immunity long before a vacine is available. GLTA affected.

Spoiler: Working from Home

 

[sparcs]

I guess it depends on personal expectations. Would 50k be good, or 75k?

If the demand was there they could move cars from China to other countries. Assuming tariffs aren’t bad and that Tesla Shanghai would have the parts available to continue building cars.

I don’t think Q2 will be close to Q1, but based on circumstances it can be decent. Really if Q2 can just show a pathway back on track for Tesla then it’s a success. Even if 2020 is just a bad year, then as you said there will be better quarters and luckily Tesla has the funding to be wide awake for those better days!

My personal expectations are to expect a massive disruption to Tesla in Q2. There is no point in me obsessing if it is 30k, 40k, 50k or 75k deliveries. What does one quarter change since everyone knows that it was out of Tesla's control?

I'm more interested in recovery for Q3 and beyond. Tesla should have the supply chain, factories, and logistics restored by then.

 

[Tim S]

This is unfortunately not true. Most COVID-19 patients that end up on ventilators never recover.

While this is true, ventilators are reusable machines, so each one can save many lives.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I guess it depends on personal expectations. Would 50k be good, or 75k?

If the demand was there they could move cars from China to other countries. Assuming tariffs aren’t bad and that Tesla Shanghai would have the parts available to continue building cars.

I don’t think Q2 will be close to Q1, but based on circumstances it can be decent. Really if Q2 can just show a pathway back on track for Tesla then it’s a success. Even if 2020 is just a bad year, then as you said there will be better quarters and luckily Tesla has the funding to be wide awake for those better days!

Yeah, gotta assume at least ⅓ Q2 Fremont output is lost. If US demand is good, Q2 exports may be SOL.

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla News - Electrek

Tesla to make ventilators using their car parts.
THIS is what makes me love Tesla. THIS is a reason why I will be investing in Tesla again.

For every ventilator made, one life will be saved. 10,000 ventilators = 10,000 lives, 200,000 ventilators = 200,000 lives. This should be Tesla's priority and IMHO is much more important that M3 or MY numbers.

Th survival rate once you are on a vent is between 10-20%

 

[3Victoria]

New Munro video out. So far the only "rigid" wiring is from the charge port to the pack. This makes installation faster and more precise since there are no cables flopping around. Sandy seems to think this will be lighter too but I don't see how a cable in a metal tube will save any weight. Unless the rigidity of the tube allows them to use aluminum instead of copper, but with the needed increase in cross section I don't think the savings would be significant.

The 3's cable needs to have thick outside insulation because of its high voltage, and we can appreciate the heft of it when he picked it up. The pipe allows lighter cable, or even loose wires inside it, and is still protective to occupants and workers.

 

[dc_h]

I seriously doubt the Tesla ventilators will receive FDA approval and be manufactured in time to have much effect during this pandemic. That is, unless other big cities follow the same path New York has taken. That doesn't seem likely at this point (with quarintining being effective).

It's possible that in 2 weeks, we have 1/4 the current cases. And then in a month, just remnants scattered around the country.

But, I am getting ahead of myself. We need to see a couple more days of similar or falling new cases to know it's on the way down (I'm optimistic that it is).

I think FDA approval will be fast tracked and nearly immediate. They'll likely miss NY peak, but the Southeast from Louisiana to Florida are going to peak and plateau. They still don't have effective lockdown strategies and won't peak until at least June. Hopefully warm weather will reduce the impact, but that is not determined yet.
A lot of interesting history on FDA approvals and prior pandemics. 1957 the US got ahead of the virus of the day and the Fauci of the day got clearance to get a sample of the virus and fast tracked a vaccine. It would be as if Fauci got approval on December 22nd to send a team to Wuhan and bring saliva home and spin up every lab in the country to work on a vaccine.

https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman

 

[jerry33]

New Munro video out. So far the only "rigid" wiring is from the charge port to the pack. This makes installation faster and more precise since there are no cables flopping around. Sandy seems to think this will be lighter too but I don't see how a cable in a metal tube will save any weight. Unless the rigidity of the tube allows them to use aluminum instead of copper, but with the needed increase in cross section I don't think the savings would be significant.

Perhaps the metal tube allows lighter insulation on the wiring because they don't have to account for movement.

 

[JRP3]

The 3's cable needs to have thick outside insulation because of its high voltage, and we can appreciate the heft of it when he picked it up. The pipe allows lighter cable, or even loose wires inside it, and is still protective to occupants and workers.

No, you can not have bare cable inside a metal tube There still needs to be voltage and amperage appropriate insulation inside the tube. The metal tube is still heavier than the insulation even if they use slightly thinner insulation.

 

[dc_h]

There's no way Q2 will be "good". The first half of the quarter is when all the ships for Europe should probably leave. So European customers will be buying limited stock in inventory or waiting until the latter part of Q3 for the next round of ships.

Plus, Fremont will have to ramp back up. Suppliers will have to ramp back up. Rules at a local level will likely cause some restrictions. Logistics will likely still be messy due to all the restrictions.

There will be massively better quarters beyond Q2. I'm focusing on those.

The glass half full story is that Tesla had 15,000 new inventory cars end of Q1. A lot of those are in Europe and can help boost sales. Shanghai is also running flat out and could make up to 45,000 cars. Assuming production restarts in Fremont by mid-April, they can get a couple of ships to Europe and focus on getting US stock deployed and delivered. It's too early to tell, but anything over 75,000 would be great at this point. Anything over 60,000 is probably above market expectations.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

New Munro video out. So far the only "rigid" wiring is from the charge port to the pack. This makes installation faster and more precise since there are no cables flopping around. Sandy seems to think this will be lighter too but I don't see how a cable in a metal tube will save any weight. Unless the rigidity of the tube allows them to use aluminum instead of copper, but with the needed increase in cross section I don't think the savings would be significant.

I assume thats because of that old tesla patent where they wanted to make cables that robot arms could fit, where flexible ones have problems. I think elon is redesigning a car around the idea that its 100% robot produced. if that puts up the material cost a few percentage points who cares.

 

[printf42]

No, you can not have bare cable inside a metal tube There still needs to be voltage and amperage appropriate insulation inside the tube. The metal tube is still heavier than the insulation even if they use slightly thinner insulation.

How I read it is, by using a rigid tube, it got rid of all the attached retention and routing fixtures, which were heavier than the tube, and probably were more expensive too.

I’m still waiting for Munro to say “Y costs way less than 3 to make, also would be easier to service”. I guess he already has an idea but would wait for the series to conclude before dropping the bomb.

 

[JRP3]

How I read it is, by using a rigid tube, it got rid of all the attached retention and routing fixtures, which were heavier than the tube, and probably were more expensive too.

That's a possibility.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

This is the patent stuff I was referring to (re:wiring)
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/

 

[EVNow]

Repeating this question here … anyone see anything in the news ?

Does anyone know how Tesla handled 2 weeks off in GF3 and 1 week off in Fremont ? Did they pay the hourly workers ? Might make a difference in auto margin ...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Cha-ching! Who needs new sales when incremental software sales have 100% margins? Underpants $$$ collected!

Tesla to offer basic Autopilot for retired Model 3 variant, and it will be discounted too

Offer for Model 3s purchased before April 2019 (when AP became standard equipment).

Cheers!

Shouldn't it be a good idea to make almost any softwarepackage cheaper the older the car is?

Not the $10/month subscription ones but almost anything with a onetime cost.

Very few people that have or buy a 10 year old Tesla (in a few years) will pay full price for FSD or almost anything else. That's because if a car survives for 20 years on average you are then paying double the cost per monthly usage.

So if expected life for a Tesla is 20 years and FSD is $10k (just making numbers up) it would make sense to be able to buy FSD for 7.5k after 5 years, 5k after 10 years, 2.5k after 15 years. Really, just lower it with $500 (in this case) per year.

This way Tesla could still make money on 5+ years old cars that otherwise they will make very little on.

Let's say in a few years Tesla makes 2 million cars. That can be done with the Gigafactories already started. If say 10% of those gets an FSD upgrade at reduced price on average when 10 years old it could bring in something like 200k cars x $5k = $1Billion a year. In pure profit.

I don't see a downside.

 

[dgodfrey]

How I read it is, by using a rigid tube, it got rid of all the attached retention and routing fixtures, which were heavier than the tube, and probably were more expensive too.

I’m still waiting for Munro to say “Y costs way less than 3 to make, also would be easier to service”. I guess he already has an idea but would wait for the series to conclude before dropping the bomb.

I wonder if Munro will have completed the analysis and announce what should be a gushing recommendation before the Earnings Report. It could have a small ripple effect if positive and it goes without saying, a catastrophic plunge if negative. /s
That's just how things roll with Tesla. Bad news seems to have twice the affect that good news has. That could also be my biased observation being a delusional fanboi or so I'm told.

 

[Big Dog]

Honda Civics and Toyota Camrys are on traded in list of new 3 Series and C Class owners too.

During the investor conference call today, CEO Elon Musk revealed the top five trade-in cars:

• Toyota Prius
• BMW 3-Series
• Honda Accord
• Honda Civic
• Nissan Leaf

It’s important to note that Tesla specified that it’s the top 5 “non-Tesla” trade-in cars, which would indicate that a Tesla vehicle would actually be in the top 5 otherwise

Note, this quote was from 2018 when the 3 just started selling. Two of those trade-ins were hybrids which, while not Luxury price, can be attractive to those with incomes that fall into the Luxury car market. Only the Civic is a really low cost car.

But no doubt that the worldwide Luxury market can grow with a new entrant like Tesla, even the great Elon cannot overcome basic economics. The biggest reason that folks purchase a Civic is that is what they can afford, i.e., a price point of $20k or lower. Maybe in the future, those folks will go car-less and use RoboTaxis, but no way they are purchasing a Tesla at today's design and price point. As much as they might pine for a Tesla, if they don't have the cash, they don't have the cash. Marketing 101.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Note, this quote was from 2018 when the 3 just started selling. Two of those trade-ins were hybrids which, while not Luxury price, can be attractive to those with incomes that fall into the Luxury car market. Only the Civic is a really low cost car.

But no doubt that the worldwide Luxury market can grow with a new entrant like Tesla, even the great Elon cannot overcome basic economics. The biggest reason that folks purchase a Civic is that is what they can afford, i.e., a price point of $20k or lower. Maybe in the future, those folks will go car-less and use RoboTaxis, but no way they are purchasing a Tesla at today's design and price point. As much as they might pine for a Tesla, if they don't have the cash, they don't have the cash. Marketing 101.

That's a little overly simplistic. A new civic is bought by people with a tight budget, but also fear of the reliability of used cars, otherwise, they would've bought used instead, since you'd get a bigger car (aka safer) for less money. A used electric vehicle (most likely Teslas at this point due to production volume) will not have the same reliability concerns, AND have a lower purchase price. Keep an eye out for new car sales of those small sedans as more used model 3's get into the market. Those should take care of the $20k and under market.

 

[EVNow]

A used electric vehicle (most likely Teslas at this point due to production volume) will not have the same reliability concerns

That needs to be seen. I expect people who normally by a civic to be not convinced that Model 3 will "not have the same reliability concerns". They will be worried about battery longevity and cost of repairs.