Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Ugh. I had been timing this stock pretty damn well on the run up and back down. The past week or two have crushed me. Serious FOMO. I believe deeply in this stock, short, medium, and long term. While also think the macros the past week are insane and how could I jump in a huge position right now. Also, the only reason I’m not buying and turning away is because I want to be able to purchase even more at a lower cost basis. I’ve got a ton of cash to work with but not unlimited. I full see this as a bull trap. Sigh.

Any advice for me other than simply buy and hold strong?

Any suggested entry points?

thank you all!

best,
Gene

 

[Nocturnal]

From Cathie Wood video there were 2 important points she made:-

1. Tesla will drive the cost of BEVs below the ICE cost.
2. with COVID-19 other car makers may have issues funding BEV R&D.

Tony Seba makes predictions of BEV obtaining price parity with ICE around 2023?, according to Wrights Law.

But it is important to remember Wrights Law is simply a measuring tool, it doesn't drive anything.

So when Tesla lowers the cost of batteries, only Tesla benefits.

All things considered, Tesla being the first car maker to have BEV below the retail cost of ICE (and well below on TCO) would be no big surprise, in fact I'll be stunned if that doesn't happen.

I'm surprised 2023 is the target. Teslas are arguably at price parity with similar luxury/performance vehicles today.

Ugh. I had been timing this stock pretty damn well on the run up and back down. The past week or two have crushed me. Serious FOMO. I believe deeply in this stock, short, medium, and long term. While also think the macros the past week are insane and how could I jump in a huge position right now. Also, the only reason I’m not buying and turning away is because I want to be able to purchase even more at a lower cost basis. I’ve got a ton of cash to work with but not unlimited. I full see this as a bull trap. Sigh.

Any advice for me other than simply buy and hold strong?

Any suggested entry points?

thank you all!

best,
Gene

I think once the euphoria about stimulus expectations and covid cases leveling off the whole market will be in for some pain. We are probably going to hit great depression levels of unemployment. I haven't done much with my tesla holdings but sold off everything else in my trading account today and peeled off about 30% from my index funds in my 401k. I don't see how the market doesn't pull Tesla back down over the next few month or so.

 

[Sanny]

Actually, it is free money if used to retain or hire back employees, according to the NY Times.


I agree with the pessimists about the red tape and corruption that are likely with the stimulus programs. But I think the pessimists are underestimating the forces that want the economy back on track. Very big players want their profits and stock values back. They are gonna make it happen, IMO.

It is roughly 2.5 months maximum of free money ONLY for the payroll purposes. Basically the business need to distribute it to the employees (25% only could be spent on rent or mortgage). There is another question if the employees would want to keep that kind of employment or prefer a much higher than usual unemployment checks for much longer period (26 weeks or so). This actually is what will soon make it hard for the grocery stores to find employees if we stay closed for a little bit longer.
This $350bil is just a very small help for businesses (with a huge paper burden to get it).
And still I do not see media reports about how badly the process is organised - almost like distributing food in a warzone through local warlords.
In short, US really sucks in anything socialism.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On the bright side. I got out at $595 a while back, bought back in at $445 and have sold weekly calls 3 times since. So, while the sold call this week has bitten me hard, as a whole I'm still my broker is better off than if I'd just held the entire time.

FTFY.

After-Hrs last SP: $596.00

 

[dl003]

up $23 AH ... its going to be a long weekend

View attachment 530928

Last time I said something like this was when it went from 887 to 730 the next day.

 

[Nocturnal]

Your own link says: "[Trump] did add that the administration will likely have to add more money to the PPP package."

You started out worried about local restaurants. Now you're worried about Tesla suppliers being incapable of filling out paperwork? This is scraping the bottom of the worry barrel, IMO. If Tesla needs a widget for production, they will help the supplier with the paperwork, or make the widget themselves (as they've done many times before). Give them credit for some imagination and competence, or find yourself a different stock.

The paperwork is actually really straight forward. I have an application in myself. The issue now is capacity. My local banker says he is processing 70 or so loans a day.

Last time I said something like this was when it went from 887 to 730 the next day.

With nothing to do but watch the covid death tracker.

 

[skybluecgreen]

In his recent tweet about Switzerland Y deliveries in about a year should come out from Giga Berlin, Elon said should and not will.

That does not sound like ruling out to me.

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 19h19 hours ago
Replying to @Milostoessel @RationalEtienne
In about a year. Would come from Giga Berlin.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm surprised 2023 is the target. Teslas are arguably at price parity with similar luxury/performance vehicles today.


I think once the euphoria about stimulus expectations and covid cases leveling off the whole market will be in for some pain. We are probably going to hit great depression levels of unemployment. I haven't done much with my tesla holdings but sold off everything else in my trading account today and peeled off about 30% from my index funds in my 401k. I don't see how the market doesn't pull Tesla back down over the next few month or so.

2023 was what Tony Seba worked out a few years ago, Tesla is well ahead of the curve IMO.

 

[Thekiwi]

10% of the American working age population filed for unemployment in the last 3 weeks.

How to understand the scale of American job decimation

how long does the typical US business take before firing/furloughing workers? Is it usually instant?

 

[Etna]

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 19h19 hours ago
Replying to @Milostoessel @RationalEtienne
In about a year. Would come from Giga Berlin.

Should or would, same difference. Just making the point that concluding from that tweet that Y deliveries to Europe next year from the US are "ruled out" is a bit of a stretch.

 

[dl003]

Ugh. I had been timing this stock pretty damn well on the run up and back down. The past week or two have crushed me. Serious FOMO. I believe deeply in this stock, short, medium, and long term. While also think the macros the past week are insane and how could I jump in a huge position right now. Also, the only reason I’m not buying and turning away is because I want to be able to purchase even more at a lower cost basis. I’ve got a ton of cash to work with but not unlimited. I full see this as a bull trap. Sigh.

Any advice for me other than simply buy and hold strong?

Any suggested entry points?

thank you all!

best,
Gene

Not gonna lie. I'm unease about the next couple months macro-wise, to say the least. However I'm still fully invested because Tesla has been down 40% from the peak while outperforming the category. Meanwhile, Apple who said its guidance will have to be scrapped is only down 20%. I think there will be more pain ahead but Tesla is already excessively punished. A lot more bad news have been priced in, compared to the general market.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Every intelligent person informed about Tesla knows the stock is going to the moon eventually. The only reason why some of these people sold recently was to buy back lower. This makes the stock a rocket barely held on the launch pad by fear of more short-term panic.

At some point, Fear Of Missing Out will overcome Fear Of Falling, and the rocket will launch. Maybe we reached that point this week.

One very small data point. After several weeks on the sidelines this morning I splashed back in the TSLA pond with both feet. +90% all investments, straight stock, no leverage, no puts, no pats, no calls, no dolls, no debt, no mortgage, remaining 10% in cash. First of five times selling since owning TSLA in 2012 where I was able to purchase all my shares back (and then some) for less than what I sold, this time at price reduction of 20% (20% more shares). I didn't sell at recent top, nor did I buy at the recent bottom. I got very lucky.

For me it was not so much as fear of missing out. Tesla simply has too much good news in the coming months to ignore. My take away is where do I believe Tesla and corresponding TSLA to be two years from now, April 2022. I cannot think of any reason, including COVID-19 that would lead me to believe that Tesla/TSLA would be any worse off than it is today, and very likely will be in a much better position. Why then try to time the bottom? There is only one Tesla. No other car company has comparable EV products in their pipeline. Not even close. I love my M3. I don't drive it as much these days, but when I do, wow! O'k, o'k, it was Curt.

IMHO TMC is still the best forum on Tesla and this thread is still golden. Thanks to all the posters, whether you are pro or con Tesla as a whole or on specific issues. All posts, all sides, are welcome here.

Investors please be careful. We are not out of the woods yet. Set your own risk tolerance, do your own research from multiple channels, have six months cash reserve, best to pay off your debts before investing in the market. Makes for a sound sleep. See you all on the other side of the abyss. Stay healthy, Stay safe. Practice physical distancing (6' away), wash your hands, don't touch your face. This public service message has been brought to you by Words of HABIT. You may now return to your regular programming.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm surprised 2023 is the target. Teslas are arguably at price parity with similar luxury/performance vehicles today.


I think once the euphoria about stimulus expectations and covid cases leveling off the whole market will be in for some pain. We are probably going to hit great depression levels of unemployment. I haven't done much with my tesla holdings but sold off everything else in my trading account today and peeled off about 30% from my index funds in my 401k. I don't see how the market doesn't pull Tesla back down over the next few month or so.

What the market does short term is irrelevant to how Tesla will perform longer term....

There are 2 options:-

1. The market and or more savvy investors value Tesla based on long term potential.
2. The Tesla share price decouples from the long term and trades lower on short term performance.

Why I'm expecting a but more of 1. and a bit less of 2. is simple, people have to put their money somewhere.

But the one thing we do know is Telsa stock is highly volatile and there are forces which exaggerate a move in any direction, so I don't rule any particular price in or out short term.,.. My hunch is if it goes below 500 it will not stay below 500 for long, but who knows.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Every intelligent person informed about Tesla knows the stock is going to the moon eventually. The only reason why some of these people sold recently was to buy back lower. This makes the stock a rocket barely held on the launch pad by fear of more short-term panic.

At some point, Fear Of Missing Out will overcome Fear Of Falling, and the rocket will launch. Maybe we reached that point this week.

I think we've been there for a bit already. Reason I know is that I keep changing my mind as to a sell or buy more. (I agree, the sell would be to buy back lower b/c I expect a hit soon with too many unknowns, but smaller trades compared to my holdings). Storms ahead means anything can happen. Shorts will hit again, large swings coming, but trend is up and all the way to Mars.

I have a sell of 50 TSLA at $594, then will buy back at around $520 (crystal ball told me so). No way the market can hold above $520 from now on... no way IMO. Can be pretty tough buying as it drops and everyone here says "catch a falling knife" hahaha. It doesn't drop like it used to... getting pretty firm on value now.

 

[Nocturnal]

What the market does short term is irrelevant to how Tesla will perform longer term....

There are 2 options:-

1. The market and or more savvy investors value Tesla based on long term potential.
2. The Tesla share price decouples from the long term and trades lower on short term performance.

Why I'm expecting a but more of 1. and a bit less of 2. is simple, people have to put their money somewhere.

But the one thing we do know is Telsa stock is highly volatile and there are forces which exaggerate a move in any direction, so I odn;t rule any particular price in or out short term.,.. My hunch is if it goes below 500 it will not stay below 500 for long, but who knows.

If I had to guess I'd say we dip into the 400s, but as you said not for long. I also expect good news on the factory side. States/nations will be dying to have a shiny new factory plopped down in their jurisdiction so the incentives may be excellent.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Yeah sorry English is not my first language, not even my second. What I remembered was the conditional nature of the tweet.

I think would is more conditional than will, and certainly more conditional than "ruled out" which is the point I was attempting to make.

I agree with you that the Y 'could' be exported to Europe before it comes out of Berlin. Just wanted to point out that Elon said 'would'. As we all know, Elon's statements are subject to change.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So in terms of driving Q2 demand there are now 3 options on the table:-

1. Ramp up the number of Model Ys that can be built, and add variants.
2. Lower the price of Model 3, and add variants.
3. Release a really good version of FSD.

or
4. Offer a 7 yr term on a Tesla car loan
5. Lease options...
6. Do nothing, there's plenty of demand there still

 

[SOULPEDL]

Like this...

 

[juanmedina]

I think we've been there for a bit already. Reason I know is that I keep changing my mind as to a sell or buy more. (I agree, the sell would be to buy back lower b/c I expect a hit soon with too many unknowns, but smaller trades compared to my holdings). Storms ahead means anything can happen. Shorts will hit again, large swings coming, but trend is up and all the way to Mars.

I have a sell of 50 TSLA at $594, then will buy back at around $520 (crystal ball told me so). No way the market can hold above $520 from now on... no way IMO. Can be pretty tough buying as it drops and everyone here says "catch a falling knife" hahaha. It doesn't drop like it used to... getting pretty firm on value now.

I thought about doing something like that but I have to much MOFO, I only did it once and scored 4 free shares.

 

[Creekstalker]

One very small data point. After several weeks on the sidelines this morning I splashed back in the TSLA pond with both feet. +90% all investments, straight stock, no leverage, no puts, no pats, no calls, no dolls, no debt, no mortgage, remaining 10% in cash. First of five times selling since owning TSLA in 2012 where I was able to purchase all my shares back (and then some) for less than what I sold, this time at price reduction of 20% (20% more shares). I didn't sell at recent top, nor did I buy at the recent bottom. I got very lucky.

For me it was not so much as fear of missing out. Tesla simply has too much good news in the coming months to ignore. My take away is where do I believe Tesla and corresponding TSLA to be two years from now, April 2022. I cannot think of any reason, including COVID-19 that would lead me to believe that Tesla/TSLA would be any worse off than it is today, and very likely will be in a much better position. Why then try to time the bottom? There is only one Tesla. No other car company has comparable EV products in their pipeline. Not even close. I love my M3. I don't drive it as much these days, but when I do, wow! O'k, o'k, it was Curt.

IMHO TMC is still the best forum on Tesla and this thread is still golden. Thanks to all the posters, whether you are pro or con Tesla as a whole or on specific issues. All posts, all sides, are welcome here.

Investors please be careful. We are not out of the woods yet. Set your own risk tolerance, do your own research from multiple channels, have six months cash reserve, best to pay off your debts before investing in the market. Makes for a sound sleep. See you all on the other side of the abyss. Stay healthy, Stay safe. Practice physical distancing (6' away), wash your hands, don't touch your face. This public service message has been brought to you by Words of HABIT. You may now return to your regular programming.

Congrats on your trading acumen.

FYI, every time someone sells it puts downward pressure on the price.

Yes, it evens out in the end when you buy back. However, the rest of us who just boringly support the company by holding have to suffer through yet another "Luckily I sold at $900 bought back at $400 and will sell at $590 because there are tough times ahead... blahblah

...because I totally support The Mission" type post.

Nothing personal. You're a good poster. Just a lot of this going on all week.