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These AH and PM bumps look like manipulation to the upside to me.

I reckon the people who wanted to take advantage of the GS note got in well before the note was released, and are taking profits at this point.

I think the last few days are due to the contracted float and delta hedging effects that @Fact Checking and @ReflexFunds described to us late last year. I also wrote a blog describing how this works and how it influenced TSLA's meteoric rise to $960 early Feb:

The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise

It's impossible to be certain, but the spike in volume of the last few days looks very similar to much of January and early February.

Monday was ~2x normal volume, yesterday ~2.5x normal volume, and today is shaping up to be similar volume to yesterday.
 
The motor inverters in EVs are software controlled variable-frequency inverters. Why do you think there is something preventing them from operating at a fixed frequency?

You say the inverters are likely wired directly to the motors and this is true in existing models, none of which have AC outlets. But we are speaking of the ability of new Tesla models like the Cybertruck being able to dual-purpose their drive inverters to create useable AC power while parked.
No, the drive unit controllers are not usable as inverters.
  • They are co-located with the motor to reduce losses and electical emissions. This connection carries 800+ Amps, is internal to the drive unit and bolted
  • The output topology is a buck converter with only the motor windings as filtering
  • It is fed by positive DC from the pack, it has no way to generate a bipolar AC waveform
  • The contactors required to switch the output to a plug vs the motor would be a large and costly point of failure
Much cleaner, safer, more reliable, and likely cheaper to use something other that the drive electronics. Either repurposing an inverter design from an existing product (megapack) or enhancing the vehicle charger to be bidirectional.


Also, my list on heat pump changes has an error, the car already had two TXVs. One for cabin, one for chiller.
 
I wanted to watch it before I commented, and yeah, it was a bit disappointing that we, as investors, couldn't hear more details.

However, in the end Sandy sells his information to other companies. Any insight gained from direct questioning could end up in those reports, and in the hands of Tesla competitors. I think Elon knows that, Sandy knows that, and the Third Row knows that--it may have even been discussed during the organization of the event.

I think if Elon and Sandy were to talk, it'd probably be on a contractual basis, so the "insider" information couldn't be sold off to who'd ever pay for it.
Elon is far to honest for that type of conversation.
Honesty is in such short supply with CEO's it is nice to invest with a company that has one.
 
My opinion is that it's only going to be Texas if Texas changes their anti-Tesla laws. No reason to reward anti-Tesla behaviour.
Yea I try to bug them periodically about it. This was the last response I got.
“Thank you for contacting me regarding your concerns to allow Tesla to sell directly to Texas consumers. As your state representative, I am better able to serve you when you share your views with me. Your correspondence on this matter is greatly appreciated.


During this past 86th Legislative Session in 2019 Senate Bill 1415, filed by Senator Kelly Hancock, was passed into law. It maintains that car manufacturers are not allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state of Texas and must operate sales through a third party. This means that Tesla is allowed to operate showrooms in Texas but is not allowed to sell directly to consumers, and they currently handle all of their sales in Texas online. The State of Texas is absolutely in support of a free market, but we must make sure it is a fair market for all involved. SB 1415 is directed at all car manufacturers, and does not single out Tesla specifically.


SB 1415 also allows for the continued operation of the six Tesla service centers in Texas so that Tesla customers may still get their cars serviced in the state, and no current Tesla owners will be affected by the legislation enacted. Tesla has since switched their entire business model to online sales for everyone in the country in order to save money by not operating dealerships to continue to make their cars more affordable to consumers.

Going forward, Texas is absolutely interested in energy alternatives and any opportunities that create jobs for hard-working Texans. I have also seen reports that Tesla is currently looking into building one of their Giga factories in Texas, which could very likely be an economic windfall for the state.


Thank you for taking the time to reach out to me. I will continue to work on your behalf to make Texas the best state to live, work and raise a family. Please feel free to contact me if I can do anything else to be of service.”
 
Yea I try to bug them periodically about it. This was the last response I got.
“Thank you for contacting me regarding your concerns to allow Tesla to sell directly to Texas consumers. As your state representative, I am better able to serve you when you share your views with me. Your correspondence on this matter is greatly appreciated.


During this past 86th Legislative Session in 2019 Senate Bill 1415, filed by Senator Kelly Hancock, was passed into law. It maintains that car manufacturers are not allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state of Texas and must operate sales through a third party. This means that Tesla is allowed to operate showrooms in Texas but is not allowed to sell directly to consumers, and they currently handle all of their sales in Texas online. The State of Texas is absolutely in support of a free market, but we must make sure it is a fair market for all involved. SB 1415 is directed at all car manufacturers, and does not single out Tesla specifically.


SB 1415 also allows for the continued operation of the six Tesla service centers in Texas so that Tesla customers may still get their cars serviced in the state, and no current Tesla owners will be affected by the legislation enacted. Tesla has since switched their entire business model to online sales for everyone in the country in order to save money by not operating dealerships to continue to make their cars more affordable to consumers.

Going forward, Texas is absolutely interested in energy alternatives and any opportunities that create jobs for hard-working Texans. I have also seen reports that Tesla is currently looking into building one of their Giga factories in Texas, which could very likely be an economic windfall for the state.


Thank you for taking the time to reach out to me. I will continue to work on your behalf to make Texas the best state to live, work and raise a family. Please feel free to contact me if I can do anything else to be of service.”
Typical lawyer politician happy talk bs.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
so what happens after those options expire, will the stock go down?

If they're sold all at once, then likely yes. Market makers will sell the stock they're holding as a delta hedge causing the SP to drop.

It's possible that this is (part of) what happened late on February 4th when TSLA fell from it's high of $960. There's also been a lot of speculation about it having been a manipulation, which is possible, but it's also possible that somebody sold out of a massive option position and/or the manipulators asked a friend to sell out of a massive option position.
 
I showed him ways that Colorado and Michigan have changed their laws to support auto makers like Tesla. No response yet. It’s their funeral though, traditional dealerships will die a slow death and if they lose this Tesla plant then it’s going to haunt them.

Michigan did not change their laws to help Tesla. What happened is the new administration (governor, attorney general, and secretary of state) created a memorandum of understanding regarding the limits of what Tesla can do in the framework of the current laws. Basically sidestepping the franchise issue.

Tesla still can't own a service center, but they can own a company that owns a service center (staffed by Tesla employees). Tesla still can't be a dealer and can't process title paper work in Michigan, but they can assist purchasers with the paperwork which gets processed out of state. It also stated that Michigan Tesla employees can assist with trade ins, pricing, delivery, and everything else.

So everything happens in Michigan except for the actual sale of the car (with potential sales tax revenue implications)
 
So, coming from a recently retired, stock market illiterate, average Joe kind of guy, I find myself feeling that there is a lot of over-thinking going on here. This chart and that graph and what this analyst says, etc. I keep thinking a Bollinger Band is one of those crappy groups from the 80's that never caught on. To me max pain is dealing with my ever more frequent constipation.

I'm just a guy that loves the company and what it stands for. I love the CEO and what he is willing to endure to see his visions of a cleaner planet come to fruition. I love the products the company produces. I want to be a part of that. Simple. This isn't rocket science (pun intended). If you're long, you're long. You support the company through purchase of its stock. You stay with it until such time that you need the funds for whatever you need it for. Then you get out. Make a little money. Make a lot of money. Maybe don't make any money. You still supported something you love and believe in for the period of time that is right for you. That, to me is investing. Anything else is speculation, trading, sometimes manipulation, sometimes devious. Call it what you want, but it is most definitely NOT investing.

So, my suggestion is take a deep breath of this much cleaner air we have recently thanks to current events. Take a sip of your favorite beverage. Sit back and relax. This company's stock, like everything else, will play out the way it will play out. Not worth stressing over. I love my Tesla. I love my TSLA. Life is good. Be well my friends.

Most definitely...advice.

Dan
 
Having just finished watching Ozark, my money is that Byrne Enterprises is behind this thing. Marty Byrne has been looking to expand his money laundering opportunities and this would be a perfect shell company. Navarro would then use this as a gateway to open up the South American market to Tesla and with all those storage nooks and crannies, it allows him to smuggle all that cash back into Mexico. It seems pretty obvious to me.
Yep. Ruth Langmore could straighten out Customer Relations, too.
 
Tesla has since switched their entire business model to online sales for everyone in the country in order to save money by not operating dealerships to continue to make their cars more affordable to consumers.
I hope you pointed out that this is not true and that they have physical stores in states which allow it. Also, if you haven't, point out that no other product requires you to purchase only through a dealer. You can buy a home directly from the builder, the largest purchase most people will ever make. Why are cars special?