Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Futures up, oil up, I guess someone got a hold of the super secret unemployment figured ahead of time.

Current calculated Max pain is 675. Probably a more significant number than any macro event. I wish they ban option trading more than short selling for Tsla.

Oh well, at least we are near this number so no nukes will be thrown unlike when stock was in the 900s.

 

[Christine69420]

Twitter user RalfThomas took some pictures of a train delivering gravel to Giga Berlin:

So it looks like they have started building roads.

And the railway line is definitely functional.

Source with more pics: @GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) | Twitter

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hoping guidance gets reiterated on the 1Q call, should have enough info by then to know if it's possible. Would be quite a glaring indicator of where the market's going when all the other legacy automakers are scrapping projections.

 

[Unpilot]

I feel like every fund manager knew about GS' upgrade and bailed before announcement.

I'm old and my eyes hurt now...thanks

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Current calculated Max pain is 675. Probably a more significant number than any macro event. I wish they ban option trading more than short selling for Tsla.

Oh well, at least we are near this number so no nukes will be thrown unlike when stock was in the 900s.

It feels as if the Goldman Sachs frontrunners have been offloading yesterday (cashing in on their huge gains) and are still at it today. Well, at least we also profited as their buying was probably one of the causes of the big run up on Monday and Tuesday.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla finally gaining traction in S Korea.

Lots of foot traffic at stores for 2 plus years without many sales but lookie here...

EV Sales: South Korea March 2020

Did not know they sold the Bolt there.

 

[joh01652]

That statement on the page is a lie, unfortunately. Biden attended a fundraiser of a fossil fuel executive. When pressed about it, he lied and said "He’s not a fossil fuel executive”. His campaign also has several other ties to the energy industry [1], [2], [3].

But of course he would be better than Trump in terms of climate change and given how incredibly well Tesla executed under the current political climate, the future looks bright.

To avoid a purely political post, looks like Tesla is rolling out stopping for traffic lights for early access users. This should help Q2 FSD revenue at least a little, but more importantly, it opens the door to gather a lot of valuable data.

Edit: I'm a bit confused with the rollout of this update, as we've seen a video of this feature before. However, the poster of the video, Out of Spec Motoring, said they couldn't share any details. Seemed to be even more secretive than the early access program, so this update now indeed may bring it to more people.

Tesla added me to the EA program last summer because I bought a M3 last May with the new hw3 FSD chip. So I was able to test and provide feedback last summer under the program, but after they stopped taking feedback I've not received any invitation or upgrade for stopping at traffic lights. I've been wondering if I'd receive notice since it's been 2-3 weeks now since the Out of Spec Motoring video.

I'm confused about the EA update as well. Doesn't seem like it's going to everyone.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Who wants to sell going into earnings and Battery Day? Anyone? Anyone?

 

[dl003]

Who wants to sell going into earnings and Battery Day? Anyone? Anyone?

two kidneys seem a bit redundant at the moment.

 

[joh01652]

I've been pondering the public response and thereafter the regulators' response to the obviously cleaner air when we get to the end of lockdown. I have this deep sense that the young 'Gretas' and health practitioners of the world will not sit by quietly whilst the world just re-pollutes its cities....

Clearly they can't just ban cars and trucks overnight or even 'force' people to buy EVs but they could introduce some incremental regulatory scheme.

For example, take London (already with its congestion zone and extra charge for diesels) London could introduce a small central area (the City square mile?) where only EVs are permitted (no ICE vehicles even with 'penalties'). Electric 'Last Mile Delivery' services would flourish and many companies would convert to EVs and move their ICE delivery vehicles out of town.

Each year this area would increase incrementally until it covered most of London in, what?, 10 years time....Financial incentives could initially be used if necessary.

Sure it would cost some funds and enforce some changes but we will need economic stimulus to get out of the Covid 19 recession somehow so it may as well be positive! Imagine the changed landscape if most of the major cities in the world, in unison, introduced such measures. Turn cities into EV zones quickly and move the massive stock of ICE vehicles (which will become cheap) out of town initially where they will do less harm and where they can be phased out as EVs take over 100%.....

Closing off a small section of any city center to electric vehicle/pedestrians/bikes is an excellent idea. I'm going to submit a proposal to my local city council. Thanks.

I'm going to name it a "Tesla region," in an attempt to brand all EVs generically as Teslas, sort of how Kleenex is ubiquitously used as a general proxy for tissue paper.

 

[canoemore]

Hoping guidance gets reiterated on the 1Q call, should have enough info by then to know if it's possible. Would be quite a glaring indicator of where the market's going when all the other legacy automakers are scrapping projections.

I bet it will be. Many people commented here about how padded that 500k full-year guidance was at the time, and since the shutdown back of the napkin production math seems to back up the notion that that number is still within reach. And if folks here are thinking it's possible, then Elon sure as hell is.

 

[joh01652]

I know, I know, we've seen this all before, but it's a new post on Electrek, so I thought I'd share it.
Tesla vehicles are going to drop you off and park themselves later this year, says Musk - Electrek

 

[Singuy]

It feels as if the Goldman Sachs frontrunners have been offloading yesterday (cashing in on their huge gains) and are still at it today. Well, at least we also profited as their buying was probably one of the causes of the big run up on Monday and Tuesday.

Yup, I am just tired of the option traders determining Tesla's fate. I don't even care if the stock is in the 400s if it was a true 400. Right now any sp on Tesla seems fake which drives people sentiment all over the place. We can have "Tesla may just go under this time because this market crash feels different" to "da moon 4k!" After GS upgrade.

I don't mind volitality but being able to predict what price the stock will be by Fridays close us getting old. Cause those are just fake numbers, does not reflect what Tesla is valued at. It's just a number for people to plan their next week of options to get rich.

 

[dgodfrey]

Did not know they sold the Bolt there.

They jumped on the government incentives back in 2018. At one point, they were selling about as many Bolts in S.K. than in U.S.A.
I assumed that once Tesla Model 3 showed up, the Bolt's sales would plummet and it appears they have.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/16/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-south-korea/
Chevy Bolt Sales In South Korea Nearly Match U.S. In May
Chevy Bolt Strong In South Korea, GM Korea Expands EV Availability

 

[tinm]

Did not know they sold the Bolt there.

Heck they might as well since the majority of the Bolt’s parts come from there.

(See this old TMC thread
LG Bolt - Chevy Bolt made in Korea

 

[Mo City]

Who wants to sell going into earnings and Battery Day? Anyone? Anyone?

Earnings could go either way since expectations are raised.

Unless something leaks out beforehand, Battery Day could be historic IMO.

 

[dgodfrey]

"Biden for President" is the org specially run by Biden. It is not run by the DNC, though certainly the two will be collaborating to get him voted in.

However, the DNC do and are happy to continue taking big fat donations from fossil fuel companies.
DNC reverses ban on fossil fuel donations
Thus, those companies will donate directly to the DNC, and Biden's statement will maintain legitimacy. :\

Generally though I think supporting Tesla will be easy for the Biden government, it's a great banner to wave if you want to present yourself as "pro-green agenda."

When we see US taxpayers' money spent installing Superchargers, I will be happy.

Thanks for clarifying. At least he seems to realize the pulse of America is shifting direction.
One of his talking points caught my eye and somewhat on topic,

"Accelerating the deployment of electric vehicles. There are now one million electric vehicles on the road in the United States. But a key barrier to further deployment of these greenhouse-gas reducing vehicles is the lack of charging stations and coordination across all levels of government. As President, Biden will work with our nation’s governors and mayors to support the deployment of more than 500,000 new public charging outlets by the end of 2030. In addition, Biden will restore the full electric vehicle tax credit to incentivize the purchase of these vehicles. He will ensure the tax credit is designed to targeted middle class consumers and, to the greatest extent possible, to prioritize the purchase of vehicles made in America. And, he will work to develop a new fuel economy standard that goes beyond what the Obama-Biden Administration put in place."
As noted by Gene earlier

How will this impact cars such as the Bolt that are mostly manufactured in South Korea and ASSEMBLED in America, vs. Tesla that is majority MANUFACTURED in America? Would there be a sliding scale of percentages in place. Curious what others take on this is.

 

[BenPrice]

Max pain up to 675 today possibly rising to 690-700 tomorrow. I’d expect more push downs during the day today and tomorrow counter to market trends.

If this occurs I may go gigantic today/tomorrow: 100k+ on 5/15 900s.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The SP was always going to tend toward the Upper-BB but ...

It ain't Rocket Surgery...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

No, there isn't. There is a resistive heater in the local loop to assist in starting the heat pump in sub -10C temperatures. Do you think the resistive element continues to draw power AFTER the heat pump is running?

Yes, in very cold weather the resistive element will run for some time. Why else do you think the Model Y was able to consume more battery power than the Model S, a car with ONLY resistive heating?

That COLD START is the innovation. I recommend you listen to Elon again. Then perhaps you'll appreciate why Elon has a Model Y heat pump on the dressing room table in his bedroom.

Yes, I appreciate Tesla's innovations here, I'm not sure why you think I don't.

You haven't grok'd the purpose of the heating loop, or its advantage in cold temps, which is the subject here.

Wrong, but the subject was which car won the speed of defrosting in the video. Not only did the Model S defrost slightly quicker, it used less energy to do it.

Comparing the Model Y to an 'S' was a confound; the video should have used a '3'.

Totally agree. But you still haven't explained what metrics you were focusing on to claim the Model Y "won".

Model Y is demonstrated 10% more efficient than Model 3. Model 3 has a resistive heater. Elon says the heat pump makes the difference for the Model Y. This result didn't come from magic.

Yes, heat pumps are more efficient than resistive heating generally. But not in the extreme cold. I'm not sure why you bring "magic" into this.

Heat pumps will always win in efficiency against resistive heaters, so long as they are able to start. The heating loop in the Model Y means the heat pump can start down to at least -20 C temp.

It's not a given that a heat pump will always win - that depends upon the design of the heatpump and the conditions. In general they are much more efficient and it looks like Tesla has pushed the state-of-the-art forward in automotive heat pumps. That's a great thing and I look forward to more data to find out just how good it is, especially in arctic type temperatures.

Once its running, it will always be more efficient than a pure resistive heater, even if it requires some augmentation from a resistive element, because that will always be less energy required than 100% resistive heating.

Again, that's not a given with all heat pump designs and we don't know enough about Tesla's new implementation to say anything beyond we believe it will be more efficient at very cold temperatures than pure resistive heating. Even with ground-breaking design, it's going to have trouble besting restive heating by more than a small percentage at very cold temperatures.

Come Wintertime, some intrepid 3rd part should do a proper comparison test between the 'Y' and the '3'. Numbers will help make this advantage clear.

I'm sure it will slaughter the efficiency of pure resistive heating down to somewhere below freezing. Somewhere around 10 degrees F it will become increasingly harder to show any advantage. A peculiarity to heat pumps that extract heat from the ambient air is that humidity ends up playing a big role in the efficiency numbers. Because a high humidity will cause the heat exchanger to ice up (at which point it can no longer function). This requires either a resistive element to melt the ice or the heat pump has to go into a reverse (deicing) cycle during which time it's energy is expended deicing the heat exchanger. There is no getting around this as long as the heat pump is extracting heat from the ambient air. The good thing about Tesla's implementation is that it sounds like it extracts heat from the waste heat generated by the car along with the heat generated by the resistive heater to get the process going. But the rules of physics still apply.

I'm not sure why this discussion was sidetracked into heat-pump physics. My original question was a sincere question about what you saw in the video that made you proclaim the Model Y the winner (considering it consumed more energy per minute over the course of an hour and yet did not seem to be more effective than the pure resistive heat). And, yes, I agree a Model 3 would have been a better comparison.