What's next, the VW Kackwurst?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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What's next, the VW Kackwurst?
IIRC the Bolt electronics were Israeli, the entire design was GM Korea in addition of 80%of production costs by LG Incheon. Despite US final assembly it seems virtually all the CAPEX is non-USMAC sourced, as well as 80% of production costs. It would be surpassingly difficult for Bolt be considered to be domestic US. However, stranger things have happened!
How do you figure? Isn't the day before that the earliest that we might here from California on a reopening plan? What about all of the other places they have suppliers?
And yet most here will think somehow Tesla will come out unscathed, even though this is happening :
In certain risky recreational sporting businesses, when there is a fatality it significantly increases the amount of customers in the business's short term future because of the awareness that the bad publicity generates.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Let me guess... haven't bought back your shares?
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What happens if you add Model 3 and Y together? Oddly I get a completely different result than you did:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
searchable text here:
Volkswagen AG announces preliminary Q1 2020 results and withdraws 2020 full-year outlook due to business impacts from covid-19 pandemic
Volkswagen AG announces preliminary Q1 2020 results and withdraws 2020 full-year outlook due to business impacts from covid-19 pandemic
Ad hoc Release
16-April-2020
The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact on Volkswagen Group’s business.
As a result, the automobile retail network has largely came to a standstill. The resulting decline in customer demand and supplier bottlenecks led to production stops within the Volkswagen Group.
Ad hoc Release
16-April-2020
The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact on Volkswagen Group’s business.
As a result, the automobile retail network has largely came to a standstill. The resulting decline in customer demand and supplier bottlenecks led to production stops within the Volkswagen Group.
Not yet waiting to see if it drops toward max pain.
For some reason you think I have the ability to influence TSLA share price??
Even some of the most bullish here think that Tesla demand will take a hit. But, that's not all that matters. What about China? Battery Day? What about the fact that this is one of the greatest companies on Earth? The decision to hold or sell is much much more complex than the answer to the question "Will the recession impact Tesla demand?"Not yet waiting to see if it drops toward max pain.
For some reason you think I have the ability to influence TSLA share price??
I think demand could take a hit, sure. But I'm not willing to stay out and bet against Elon Musk. If I don't sell either way, it doesn't matter what I think about demands. If I was holding SPY, I would be scared shitless, but not TSLA. I sold before to get out of margin and I felt much worse than when I saw stock price plummeted.
There are search terms and topic terms that are processed slightly differently. You can also try to aggregate all Tesla car searches by entering "Tesla model".
In the end what you will see is a 50% drop in search frequency for Tesla products, just like with most car makers.
Those makers are noting upcoming demand drops. I would assume Tesla on the same path, but there are 2 positives:
China demand seems so big that GF3 production and selling may be unfazed.
Maybe Model Y temporary demand can stay high enough to counter dropping Model 3 demand in U. S
Since we don't want to sidetrack ourselves IN THIS THREAD into discussions of technical issues and/or specific Model Y issues, despite their relevance and interest, perhaps we might extract the specific clear value from an investment perspective.
I think that is simply that Tesla uses the best technology they can imagine to tackle problems while simultaneously reducing costs, increasing efficiency and improving relaibility.
The heat pump (actually the Octobottle and total package) is an excellent example of how Tesla does that. The Model Y rear aluminum castings are another excelelnt example.
The lesson for investors is that Tesla consistently uses innovations that nearly all traditional manufacturers do not. Soon we should have enough data to allow us to estimate the continuing economic value of such innovations. Remember that we have not yet seen the battery pack and electronic evaluations from Munro.
I think chances are very good that we could forecast typical Tesla automotive GM's of ~25% including Semi, Cybertruck and the forthcoming China-designed vehicles. Energy products will have lower GM's but will also have lower production capex and several other scale advantages.
Battery day and other forthcoming announcements will give more confidence.
Finally, GF-4 road construction, using the rail connections on-site to deliver materials NOW, South Korea Model 3 EV market share in March, GF-3 production, China sales and so on. All these things point to quite unexpected positive news. I hope it is not irrational exuberance to suggest we might well have positive TSLA Q1 financial results.
I think that is simply that Tesla uses the best technology they can imagine to tackle problems while simultaneously reducing costs, increasing efficiency and improving relaibility.
The heat pump (actually the Octobottle and total package) is an excellent example of how Tesla does that. The Model Y rear aluminum castings are another excelelnt example.
The lesson for investors is that Tesla consistently uses innovations that nearly all traditional manufacturers do not. Soon we should have enough data to allow us to estimate the continuing economic value of such innovations. Remember that we have not yet seen the battery pack and electronic evaluations from Munro.
I think chances are very good that we could forecast typical Tesla automotive GM's of ~25% including Semi, Cybertruck and the forthcoming China-designed vehicles. Energy products will have lower GM's but will also have lower production capex and several other scale advantages.
Battery day and other forthcoming announcements will give more confidence.
Finally, GF-4 road construction, using the rail connections on-site to deliver materials NOW, South Korea Model 3 EV market share in March, GF-3 production, China sales and so on. All these things point to quite unexpected positive news. I hope it is not irrational exuberance to suggest we might well have positive TSLA Q1 financial results.
I see us trading roughly sideways today and tomorrow barring any significant news. Then a resumption of upward pressure on Monday./Tuesday. Earnings is a wildcard but I think there will be a bias on positive SP movement. Either way, earnings will reduce uncertainty and this recent price action is insanely bullish. The bears have been calling for bankruptcy for so long. The fact that a pandemic and factory shutdown have been met with a great deal of relative strength in the SP destroys any shred of bear thesis that remained. It is clear that betting on efficiency and innovation is prudent in this changing world.
All speculation and MHO, probably incorrect, not advice etc.
All speculation and MHO, probably incorrect, not advice etc.
I actually agree with you which is why I will be buying back in my IRA money even if I think there's a chance it could drop a good amount in the next 4 months. It's not worth the mental stress when you really think and want the company to do well. But I can't help bring it up because it's a quite relevant topic and I wish people could handle talking about it without hating.
No doubt Assembled in America will include GM and Ford (Mexico and Canada are in America after all, just not the U.S.). Any government incentive will be focused on GM and Ford. Tesla will only get included by coincidence.
Risky & Ballsy, but not the worst idea I've ever heard.
You want to get in this week rather than next week? Don't want to risk a further run up leading up to earnings?
EDIT: ... until I took a look at the premiums. $35? Pffft... what does a man have to do to get some leverage these days?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
OT:I'm old and my eyes hurt now...thanks
This reminds me of my dear departed Uncle, who was also a pilot.
Someday, I'd like to pass away peacefully in my sleep like Uncle Cliff, rather than screaming in terror like his passengers...
Someday, I'd like to pass away peacefully in my sleep like Uncle Cliff, rather than screaming in terror like his passengers...
I think part of it is because there is so much we don't know about demands. So, it's speculation vs speculation and in the absence of facts, emotion prevails. This forum's emotion is inevitably pro Tesla.
Actually the relevant rules are based on percentage content, not final assembly. Some arcane exceptions are pointed mostly towards protecting US pickup dominance. Some are directed to protect US heavy industry. There is really no easy way to generalize the net effect of final assembly point.
For example:
https://www.wita.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190403_Scholl_RulesofOrigin_WEB_v3.pdf
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