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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As posted last Thursday....sell off right on cue!...dont fight the trend people...anyone expecting a V shaped recovery right now is delusional...when you see data and the only comparison is the great depression that tells you something right there...first there is deflation stealing equity from mom and pop, then inflation when true recovery happens(think gold and bitcoin at that time)...once Corona under better control with stable or falling numbers or a effective treatment(vaccination isn't coming anytime soon) is out, then we will stabilize but the damage has been done...follow the U6 unemployment rate not the one where you remove all people who are underemployed or have given up....GDP will contract over next 203 months like no other...UE will exceed 15% and if you count underemployed way higher than that.

The practical person won't fight the tape due to anxiety/fear , they will study and learn and figure out how to battle this...your wealth depends on it...hedge against your biggest asset that's sure to fall(real estate)...thats what I am doing now.

Like I said last week, see you at SPX 1900 soon...I may come back and give guidance at that point, but I may not , cause I am not sure how many on here care about what I say...:).

@mact3333 where do you think we go from here? Not a sarcastic post, truly want to know your thoughts. Thanks.
 
@mact3333 where do you think we go from here? Not a sarcastic post, truly want to know your thoughts. Thanks.
Up then down. Then back up, then probably down some more. Might surge up a lot, and then settle back down. In short, I have no idea...at least in the near term. Nobody else does either I'm afraid.

On the long term it's a little easier to call. At least for me. Short term only matters if you're day trading or shorting.

Dan
 
Up then down. Then back up, then probably down some more. Might surge up a lot, and then settle back down. In short, I have no idea...at least in the near term. Nobody else does either I'm afraid.

On the long term it's a little easier to call. At least for me. Short term only matters if you're day trading or shorting.

Dan
"A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. “It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate,” Morgan reportedly replied."
 
Adam Jonas predicts a huge "cash for clunkers" program will come in the fall to help the US auto industry. He thinks it will help Model 3/Y sales, but he is still spreading FUD about competition.

On how the program might work:
...It might have a $60,000 maximum price limitation. It’s going to be designed, we think, to support lower and middle income classes to get bipartisan support.... Also, there will be a fuel economy and a sustainability angle to it.... And then there’s a safety element to it—some level of minimum driving assistance technology...

On electric vehicles, including Tesla:
Before the crisis, we were underweight Tesla (ticker: TSLA). Then we went to equal weight. We think that Tesla’s relative lead on electric vehicles might actually be improved coming out of the downturn, as other companies pare back on what they see as nonessential spending. Though longer-term, we’ll look back on the crisis as a blip in electric vehicle adoption. Tesla over time will face a lot more competition.

Get Ready for Mega Cash for Clunkers, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says

So Adam, what do you mean by "face a lot more competition"?

1) New BEVs announced or launched?
Agreed.

2) New BEVs produced in sufficient volume to slow Tesla's growth?
Not from Ford or GM, who plan to produce fewer BEVs in 2026 than Tesla produced last year, according to Reuters.
Detroit's near future based on SUVs, not EVs, production plans show
And as you said, other carmakers now have less to spend on conversion to BEVs, even if they planned it.

3) New BEVs as good as Teslas, even if produced in sufficient volume?
Highly unlikely, given Tesla's large lead in battery tech, software, and rate of innovation in products and manufacturing.

So "face more competition" does not mean lose sales to competition. Inferior compliance-cars will not hurt Tesla.
 
This explains part of what makes your posts so outstanding: you have made the entire world your home. You are not just thinking outside the box, you are living outside the box.
If @FrankSG is living in Kuala Lumpur, I assure you there is a decent chance he is living INSIDE the box... :p

maxresdefault.jpg


(Good on ya' Mate!) :D

Cheers!
 
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Adam Jonas predicts a huge "cash for clunkers" program will come in the fall to help the US auto industry. He thinks it will help Model 3/Y sales, but he is still spreading FUD about competition.



So Adam, what do you mean by "face a lot more competition"?

1) New BEVs announced or launched?
Agreed.

2) New BEVs produced in sufficient volume to slow Tesla's growth?
Not from Ford or GM, who plan to produce fewer BEVs in 2026 than Tesla produced last year, according to Reuters.
Detroit's near future based on SUVs, not EVs, production plans show
And as you said, other carmakers now have less to spend on conversion to BEVs, even if they planned it.

3) New BEVs as good as Teslas, even if produced in sufficient volume?
Highly unlikely, given Tesla's large lead in battery tech, software, and rate of innovation in products and manufacturing.

So "face more competition" does not mean lose sales to competition. Inferior compliance-cars will not hurt Tesla.

I seriously doubt there will be a cash for clunkers and even if there is, it'll cause average mpg to down up not up.

The last cash for clunkers program increased average mpg by only 0.7 and thats with eligibility criteria biased toward going more green. We have the opposite as Trump want people to use more gas to save the oil industry. That and gas is much cheaper today so people may just trade in an efficient sedan for a 7 seater SUV. Sure some will go with a Tesla but I feel like Tesla is selling everything they make so if there's a program or not, the same amount of Tesla's will be sold. Also some auto makers don't even sell sedans anymore and are doing trucks only. It's an environmental waste to have people's Civic that gets 40mpg be crushed so they can buy an Armada that gets 15 mpg.
 
Nom nom
Tesla Giga Shanghai Could Be Constructing The Next Level Casting Machine for MIC Model Y

p
ompiedompiedomtiedom.... everybody says I’m wrong. But I think I’m right. Cost price model Y china will come down.
Lol, are you taking credit for the Casting Machine notion? At first you thought it was for Cybertuck... :p

Now we see that Eva (or "Ray 4 Tesla") reads this Forum. But the Tesmanian article says "it includes the creation of a gigantic new casting machine to produce most of the Model Y frame in one piece". We know max one third of the structure is in the casting, from the same Podcast Eva quotes earlier in her article.

That site has a tendancy to play fast'n'loose with the details, especially picking ones that seem to support their underlying narrative. Even if this guess turns out to be true, that's all it is. No more informed than speculation on this Forum.

Remember, this is the same blog that told us CATL LiFePO4 prismatic cells would be used in the MiC LR Model 3. We'll get to see if that's true shortly, now that the CLR3 is imminent. This casting machine will likely take about 9 mths to resolve, once the "Y" goes into production. I do expect them to skip the "2 castings" intermediate stage, and go straight to the "single big casting" for 1st production in Q12021.

Bottom line, don't expect technical precision out of a blog-writing puppy-mill, but it is fun to speculate :p

Cheers!
 
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Lol, are you taking credit for the Casting Machine notion? At first you thought it was for Cybertuck... :p

Now we see that Eva (or "Ray 4 Tesla") reads this Forum. But the Tesmanian article says "it includes the creation of a gigantic new casting machine to produce most of the Model Y frame in one piece". We know max one third of the structure is in the casting, from the same Podcast Eva quotes earlier in her article.

That site has a tendancy to play fast'n'loose with the details, especially picking ones that seem to support their underlying narrative. Even if this guess turns out to be true, that's all it is. No more informed than speculation on this Forum.

Remember, this is the same blog that told us CATL LiFePO4 prismatic cells would be used in the MiC LR Model 3. We'll get to see if that's true shortly, now that the CLR3 is imminent. This casting machine, it'll will likely take about 9 mths to resolve, once the "Y" goes into production. I do expect them to skip the "2 castings" intermediate stage, and go straight to the big casting for 1st production in Q12021.

Bottom line, don't expect technical precision out of a blog-writing puppy-mill, but it is fun to speculate :p

Cheers!
People have been asking how Tesla could have screwed up the Giga 4 foundation planning and are wondering why they had to make changes that will set back construction timetables. How could they not know the soil was not as stable as originally thought? Poppycock! (always wanted to use that word) I'd bet this is all about the mega one-piece casting machine and beefing up the foundation to accommodate it..
 
Remind me again why Elon doesn't pay for Advertising. :D

"Throwback: Elon Musk With First 2008 Tesla Roadster - Jay Leno’s GarageJay Leno's Garage"


New vid for Jay Leno's Garage has 3,600 views in 4 MINUTES (18K views in the 1st half hr) :p

"We take a look into our archives at a younger Jay Leno and Elon Musk and see Jay's first impressions of Tesla's first production car! New episodes will be coming every week!"

This is never-before shown video footage, including an interview with a very young-looking Elon Musk. There's also a brand new introduction by Jay Leno, where he positively gushes praise for EVs in general and Tesla in particular (hint: he likes sports cars, but he also owns a 2012 Model S, his daily driver).

Cheers!
 
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Remind me again why Elon doesn't pay for Advertising. :D

"Throwback: Elon Musk With First 2008 Tesla Roadster - Jay Leno’s GarageJay Leno's Garage"


New vid for Jay Leno's Garage has 3,600 views in 4 MINUTES (18K views in the 1st half hr) :p

"We take a look into our archives at a younger Jay Leno and Elon Musk and see Jay's first impressions of Tesla's first production car! New episodes will be coming every week!"

This is never-before shown video footage, including an interview with a very young-looking Elon Musk. There's also a brand new introduction by Jay Leno, where he positively gushes praise for EVs in general and Tesla in particular (hint: he likes sports cars, but he also owns a 2012 Model S, his daily driver).

Cheers!
This aired on TV back in the day. It just never had been posted on youtube before this.
 
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Lol, are you taking credit for the Casting Machine notion? At first you thought it was for Cybertuck... :p

Now we see that Eva (or "Ray 4 Tesla") reads this Forum. But the Tesmanian article says "it includes the creation of a gigantic new casting machine to produce most of the Model Y frame in one piece". We know max one third of the structure is in the casting, from the same Podcast Eva quotes earlier in her article.

That site has a tendancy to play fast'n'loose with the details, especially picking ones that seem to support their underlying narrative. Even if this guess turns out to be true, that's all it is. No more informed than speculation on this Forum.

Remember, this is the same blog that told us CATL LiFePO4 prismatic cells would be used in the MiC LR Model 3. We'll get to see if that's true shortly, now that the CLR3 is imminent. This casting machine will likely take about 9 mths to resolve, once the "Y" goes into production. I do expect them to skip the "2 castings" intermediate stage, and go straight to the "single big casting" for 1st production in Q12021.

Bottom line, don't expect technical precision out of a blog-writing puppy-mill, but it is fun to speculate :p

Cheers!
True, I said Cybertruck :)... but the location is for some sort of new machine and the patent comes pretty close. The current stamping stuff is already in GF3. But I was wondering, what if the current M3 line is upgraded to run both M3 and Model Y in the same building? Should be possible.... the newly build phase of GF3 looks way to big for Model Y.

Prismatic cells will not be used. However there will be new cells announced on battery day, the larger ones with a higher capacity per watt/kg. They are approx. 4 times bigger than the current cells.