Mo City
Active Member
It says the price of oil isn't the primary factor for Tesla's success going forward.
It says most people know the price of oil will go back up.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It says most people know the price of oil will go back up.
Shouldn't the TCO of a Model 3/Y still be significantly cheaper than the TCO of an equivalent ICE vehicle? Last time I checked, the Model 3's TCO was similar to a lot of econoboxes, so I can't imagine the Model 3 now being as expensive to own as a BMW 3-series or Audi A4, even with lower oil prices.
Simply those that assume a low oil price, or competition, represent a significant head-wind for Tesla are wrong.
Also that we have reached a time when pushing the share price down isn't as easy as it once was...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Oil isn't just 'lower'. This is approaching 1991 levels (Post Iraq War I)
This is a great point. I agree in general but we need more data to support this, so this week could give us some clues. Let’s see if the MMs want to continue to play this dangerous game. We are definitely seeing more institutional buying(based on fintel).
People keep saying TSLA is on a sick run but when you really think about it we are 20% off the recent highs made in Feb/March. We were steadily trading in the high 800$ range. Since then Tesla’s story has become even more compelling and clear to more investors. The only uncertainty at this point seems to be Q2 and overall 2020 guidance. I believe Tesla will give a
range of 475K to 525K as guidance very similar to how they did it for 2019.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
You sure? There are lots of reports of Tesla having excess inventory of when the model Y. It will take quite a while after this mess is over with for people to start making large purchases again.
There is a lot more to buying a Tesla than prices of Oil, electricity, etc. Whatever.
But I thought it might help to have a little perspective on oil since it will be big news in the coming weeks...
I saw that the price of one canadian oil producer reached -.01... now -.60
Oil Production...Who produces and how much over time...
Yashar Huseyn on Twitter
Oil Price drops... to lowest price ever...
But I thought it might help to have a little perspective on oil since it will be big news in the coming weeks...
I saw that the price of one canadian oil producer reached -.01... now -.60
Oil Production...Who produces and how much over time...
Yashar Huseyn on Twitter
Oil Price drops... to lowest price ever...
I agree we need more data, and I also agree we will have future drops... but the overall trend is up.
But it seems the days of planting a highly dubious story in the media, and the shorts engineering and easy push down off the back of that are over.
I also think with Zac as CFO, Tesla seems out of "start up mode", the big challenge of the Model 3 ramp is over, execution seems better, messaging seems more consistent, and guidance seems more conservative..
EDIT: Come on market, my posts are ageing badly...
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LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I can't think of any news to cause such a drop. I think maybe the Shorties are trying to squish the price again by causing FUD in premarket. With not much updating news, Tesla or COVID-19, it may play to their favor to push it down a bit before earnings report.
ProfTournesol
Member
Which will support the ‘general’ economy but will crush fracking companies in the US and tar companies in Canada. I won’t shed a tear for this, these are the most horrible companies for the environment. But expect a lot of money that will be pumped to those companies.Oil isn't just 'lower'. This is approaching 1991 levels (Post Iraq War I)
MartinAustin
Active Member
Very surprised to see this on the home page of CNBC -
The coronavirus crisis means we may have already reached peak carbon
The coronavirus crisis means we may have already reached peak carbon
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
AJ is jawing up 'cash4clunkr2' while tossing shade at tesla (dat competition is coming fur ya any decade now...)
Watch to see if Ford/GM are up premarket. Then it's AJ 4 sho.
Distantly related piece of information from Europe:
Went for a M3 test drive on Saturday. After the drive we had a chat inside Tesla store with the sales guys. Local inventory is quite dry already where I live, but I was offered configurations that are currently located in Zeebrugge. They quite openly browsed inventory in front of me in "staff-mode" or whatever it's called. That lists vehicles from Zeebrugge in addition to local inventory. It seems like they are storing vehicles at the port or somewhere nearby since vehicle location was Zeebrugge. They had both SR+ and LR left with towing hitch option (my requirement). Some colors were unavailable though. They also said inventory is already somewhat reduced from the end of Q1 levels. It looks like inventory is moving, but there are still plenty of cars left. Considering that some countries are completely closed this doesn't look too bad. Once Fremont reopens and first shipments arrive I'm confident there is no inventory left in Europe.
Another interesting point: Tesla financing offer had 2,4% interest. Most dealers are offering either 0% or 0,99% rate here. That is a strong signal they are not worried.
Back to 741 on 20k volume. Seems like there was an effort to set us back to start the day. It feels like this strategy was used a few weeks ago where we’d drop below the averages early and then be at the mercy of the macros the rest of the day. Hard to complain though after last week and might just be some profit taking in preparation for an uncertain week. We’ll see how the morning plays out.
I expect Tesla to continue to give limited guidance. I'd be surprised if we hear anything more than that 2020 guidance remains unchanged.
FWIW, I'm only slightly more bearish than I was at the start of the year.
Negative developments in 2020 so far
- COVID-19 is impacting Q2 production negatively.
- COVID-19 will likely impact Q3 and Q4 demand for Model S and X negatively.
- COVID-19 will likely impact Q3 and Q4 demand for Fremont made Model 3 negatively, but Tesla was supply constrained before, so it remains to be seen whether demand will be impacted enough for that to change.
- Giga Shanghai is ramping up faster than I think even most bulls expected. It's certainly ramping faster than I expected. I didn't expect them to reach 5k/week until later in the year, but it's looking like they'll easily achieve it before the end of Q2.
- The execution at Giga Shanghai gives more confidence for a swift Model Y ramp.
Bear case:
Q1: 88.4k
Q2: 8k S+X, 40k 3 Fremont, 45k 3 Shanghai, 6k Y = 99k
Q3: 12.5k S+X, 65k 3 Fremont, 65k 3 Shanghai, 25k Y = 167.5k
Q4: 15k S+X, 65k 3 Fremont, 65k 3 Shanghai, 50k Y = 195k
Total: 549.9k
Bull case:
Q1: 88.4k
Q2: 10.5k S+X, 50k 3 Fremont, 50k 3 Shanghai, 11.5k Y = 122k
Q3: 17.5k S+X, 87.5k 3 Fremont, 65k 3 Shanghai, 35k Y = 205k
Q4: 20k S+X, 87.5k 3 Fremont, 65k 3 Shanghai, 65k Y = 237.5k
Total: 652.9k
- I don't see any way in which Tesla could be demand constrained for Model Y this year, or even next year to be honest. SUV/CUV is a much larger segment than the Model 3, and there's at least some pent-up demand.
- Based on numbers and reports coming out of China, I think it's safe to say Shanghai is producing at a rate of 3k/week. Considering how fast they got there, I'd be surprised if they don't reach 5k per week by the end of May, probably earlier. If 5 weeks of production @ 5k/week and 8 weeks of production at 3.5k avg/week, that'd be 53k vehicles produced in Q2 in Shanghai. There'll probably some in transit at the end of the quarter, but 45k seems plenty conservative to me.
- Although we don't have hard proof, it really seems like demand in China is also no problem for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla needs a 2nd Gigafactory in the country before it'll see any demand issues.
- Non-China demand for the Model 3 after the various economies reopen is the biggest unknown. 65k/month would be an about 25% reduction from Tesla's previous run rate, but Tesla was supply constrained before, so 65k/month could be as much as a 30% or 35% reduction in demand. If somebody wants to be more bearish on those, I could see that, but I'm sticking with 65k for my bear case.
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We’re back from a $20 drop! A 4/20 miracle haha
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Based on pure supply and demand, of course the price of oil will drop during a global lockdown. The facinating thing is that it has had no effect on Tesla. As the world gradually (or maybe not so gradually) makes the shift to electric power for transportation, oil will get to the point where they can barely give it away. I think this is the beginning of the end for them. It may take a while but it's happening. EV adoption is no longer based on the price of oil, that is for sure.
Dan
Dan
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