Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Standard pressure is 1013, not 1015 hPa.
Nautical Miles are used to express distance both below and above the transition layer.

You're right on 1013. He was taking speed in the second part. Mach is relative to speed of sound, knots is relative to a nautical mile, thus the differentiation regarding speed based on altitude.

How does cruising at Mach .85 make him arrive a few hours earlier than an A380 cruising at .85 or a 777 cruising at .84?

He said commercial, not newest commercial.
Average cruise for long range commercial aircraft is 500 kts or Mach 0.75 .
Cruise (aeronautics) - Wikipedia

I'm also sorry for being off-topic, but someone was WRONG on the Internet

Indeed.

 

[jbcarioca]

Have a look at David Tayar’s tweets. He is a subject matter expert

David Tayar on Twitter

Despite disagreement by some Tayer is largely correct that risk premia have been gradually rising, especially for auto. As for Tesla, the rapid growth plus anticipation of Model 3 leasing and increasing overall market volatility add risk, couple that with expiration of some tax benefits and increasing perceived competition and the financing entities see an easy time to increase margins. Of course. No question about that. Overall it seems a certainty that substantial volumes of Tesla leases will be happening during 2019, thus renewal now and get a bit more margin in the process. The lenders likely were the identical group as they were the last time. Tesla needed to eliminate any complexity they could do; any other reasons are superfluous.

BTW, Tesla was wise to tie this up now. Deepak needs no extra drama during 2019. Europe, China and a dozen added countries add complexity enough to financing effort. None are likely to be problems but there will be dozens and dozens of country and market specific financing arrangements to be made with myriad local/regional/national laws and common practices to accommodate. Given all of that everything they can do to reduce workload in established proceses they need to do now. (for the record I used to do multinational financial startups for a living. It can be nightmarish.)

 

[Matias]

Interesting point - the final six digits, is that a rising number series? AFAIK on the X and the S it is. What happens when it gets to 999.999?

The Nine Billion Names of God - Wikipedia

 

[Unpilot]

It is Nautical Miles, still used as aircraft range and low-altitude airspeed calculations in North America. (FWIW high altitude 18,000 feet AGL, changes to Mach and uses standard air pressure setting of 1015mb/29.92 " mercury). Further the G650ER Elon uses has a long range cruise speed of Mach .85 which lets him arrive in Beijing a few hours before a commercial aircraft leaving LAX at the same time he left would arrive.

Sorry for being off-topic.

Umm Mach is a speed reference. NM is how far you travel. NM does not change just the reference to speed changes as one goes higher. Sorry if that is what you were saying and I read it wrong.

 

[loco]

He said commercial, not newest commercial.

Do you mean the 777 introduced 26 years ago or the A380 introduced 12 years ago?

You're right on 1013. He was taking speed in the second part. Mach is relative to speed of sound, knots is relative to a nautical mile, thus the differentiation regarding speed based on altitude.

Yes, he seemed to be mixing speed and distance. Mach number is irrelevant when explaining what a Nautical Mile is.

(won't reply further)

 

[Matias]

Given that production is expected to start in about 6 months, I feel like this provides a strong incentive to not buy right now, but wait for half a year and buy much cheaper. Unless some are worried about local quality.

It is impossible for the production to start in six months in China.

 

[schonelucht]

Where are you getting your source details for the old warehouse? The 8K for the new warehouse is quite light on detail.

It (and subsequent amendments) are attached to the quarterly filings. I believe we will see the new warehouse terms in the annual filing for 2018.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It is impossible for the production to start in six months in China.

Hmm. Let me see believe you or Musk? Tough choice

 

[wnorris]

The Tesla Show crew apparently has Model Y spec rumors. No mention of seating count or falcon wing doors.

- AWD only
- $35-$40k base price
- 250+ mile base model
- Autopilot HW 3.5 (with the possibility of a Tesla-designed Radar system, more cameras than current AP, no LIDAR)
- L4 FSD-ready from launch

 

[Matias]

Hmm. Let me see believe you or Musk? Tough choice

Musk has numerous times been over optimistic about time tables. You have been here long enough to know that. I could use harsher words, but I think that it is obvious to anyone, that Musk timetables are always overly optimistic.

Don’t believe me, use your own brains. Production starts in six months in a factory that is not even built yet?

 

[jbcarioca]

You're right on 1013. He was taking speed in the second part. Mach is relative to speed of sound, knots is relative to a nautical mile, thus the differentiation regarding speed based on altitude.




He said commercial, not newest commercial.
Average cruise for long range commercial aircraft is 500 kts or Mach 0.75 .
Cruise (aeronautics) - Wikipedia



Indeed.

Good grief, how did I say 1015. Maybe I'm getting senile.
As fro cruising speeds, back in the 1970's max cruise could be mach .87 or so for a handful of airliners. The B777/A380 max speeds are very rarely used because they are a) usually heavily loaded on very long flights and b) need to maximize endurance, not speed, so typically cruise, as Mongo says, at below Mach .80. In fact the large aircraft optimal cruise speeds for long range flight change dramatically as the fuel burns off during flight, so as a practical matter the generalizations are mostly used as promotional items. The larger the aircraft the more that changes so B777 and A380 models are the prototypical examples. Boeing, for example:
AERO - Fuel Conservation Strategies: Cruise Flight
For private aircraft, including Elon's, the optimal speed varies less than it does for the large airliners for two reasons. First, as fuel burns off they climb, up to 51,000 feet for the G650 and others, but the large airlines stay lower. Second, the fuel as a portion of total payload is less significant for smaller aircraft that are configured for executive transport, so they always have lighter payloads. BTW, as the altitude rises and air resistance reduces the fuel burn goes lower for an equivalent speed. Way OT but to go further there are lots of aviation-specific resources for this. I'm sure there are lots of people on this forum who have high altitude turbine experience to share.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Any ideas when report will occur? Could be moved up if results good but sets precedent with two reports moved up in a row. Might hurt stock in future if they don’t move it up on future reports.

 

[schonelucht]

Despite disagreement by some Tayer is largely correct that risk premia have been gradually rising, especially for auto. As for Tesla, the rapid growth plus anticipation of Model 3 leasing and increasing overall market volatility add risk, couple that with expiration of some tax benefits and increasing perceived competition and the financing entities see an easy time to increase margins. Of course. No question about that. Overall it seems a certainty that substantial volumes of Tesla leases will be happening during 2019, thus renewal now and get a bit more margin in the process. The lenders likely were the identical group as they were the last time. Tesla needed to eliminate any complexity they could do; any other reasons are superfluous.

BTW, Tesla was wise to tie this up now. Deepak needs no extra drama during 2019. Europe, China and a dozen added countries add complexity enough to financing effort. None are likely to be problems but there will be dozens and dozens of country and market specific financing arrangements to be made with myriad local/regional/national laws and common practices to accommodate. Given all of that everything they can do to reduce workload in established proceses they need to do now. (for the record I used to do multinational financial startups for a living. It can be nightmarish.)

Please check the details before posting.

1. The warehouse facility is specifically only for US leasing
2. The new warehouse expires at the exact same time as the old one, in August of this year. In terms of avoiding 'drama/workload/complexity' this renewal now accomplishes nothing.
3. Spreads are rising which is exactly what makes it so puzzling why Tesla gave up a facility that allowed it finance under the lower spread over LIBOR.

 

[NicoV]

Tracker CCS on Superchargers

Edit: reply to @lklundin , site was u responsive when I posted this.

 

[jbcarioca]

@Matias might want to reconsider about "It is impossible for the production to start in six months in China"
This is certainly a matter of definition and the Shanghai mayor explains how they'd do it, beginning with CKD or Complete Knocked Down) as in a kit complete in all respects so that final assembly happens near the destination. That has been used for many decades in situations where tax policies, freight costs or other factors made that a wise decision. Aircraft builders do something similar (Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, etc.) nearly all motor vehicle manufacturers have done that, some as long ago as the 1910's. Tesla has done it at Tilberg too.

 

[AudubonB]

"Sadly"?

 

[jbcarioca]

Please check the details before posting.

1. The warehouse facility is specifically only for US leasing
2. The new warehouse expires at the exact same time as the old one, in August of this year. In terms of avoiding 'drama/workload/complexity' this renewal now accomplishes nothing.
3. Spreads are rising which is exactly what makes it so puzzling why Tesla gave up a facility that allowed it finance under the lower spread over LIBOR.

Your third point perhaps is missing the probable causes. Because of the cryptic nature fo teh disclosure we are left to infer, thus giving rise to conflicting interpretations. I persist in regarding this as housekeeping and nothing more, reducing the need for revisions of substance. The facility does not expire in August, although drawdowns do. Certainly they could have had a longer tenor of drawdown period, but likely do nto really need or want it, because a renewal after four quarters of profitable operation will be on better terms that one today. Nonetheless it does allow teh finance team to concentrate on all those new countries. As you so correctly state this agreement is for only one country. Other lease-intensive countries are opening this year...

Finally, it is most unsurprising that well-informed people have varying opinions about an 8K as cryptic as is this one. I suspect we all agree about that.

 

[scaesare]

Autopilot has accumulated close to 1 billion miles on autopilot

Tesla Autopilot: 1 billion miles driven, with the next billion coming up fast

Once level 3 bets release, I think it will slay all competitors, putting Tesla in a position of undisputed leader.

According to that article they have exceeded 1 billion autopilot miles no?

 

[bhtooefr]

The Tesla Show crew apparently has Model Y spec rumors. No mention of seating count or falcon wing doors.

- AWD only
- $35-$40k base price
- 250+ mile base model
- Autopilot HW 3.5 (with the possibility of a Tesla-designed Radar system, more cameras than current AP, no LIDAR)
- L4 FSD-ready from launch

...so $35-40k for what's essentially a 3MRD, when $35k is the target for a 3SR?

I don't see that as plausible, unless Tesla's found some sort of massive breakthrough to get the SR RWD Model 3 down to $25-30k.

 

[KarenRei]

According to that article they have exceeded 1 million autopilot miles no?

No, billion / milliard / thousand million.