Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[feigen66]

That is a good point and would expect it to be adjusted lower now than in late March. But how much lower?

Alameda county does not provide their test data like Santa Clara county. It's really a mess.
Santa Clara county has been trending down the positive rate from 14.3% to 0.7%.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara

Santa Clara County has the highest cases for all counties due to San Jose.
I do not expect Alameda doing any worse than SJ.

 

[MC3OZ]

I actually see movement prior and then fades after battery investor day. Clear path and road maps doesn't move this stock because it's a show me company. Now if they announce anything crazy like "the current model S can travel 550 miles, we just need to update the software and website" then that can move the stock. Aspirational numbers does not until it's implemented. Fsd investor day didn't do a thing to the stock.

FSD Day was after bad Q1 results, the market mostly didn't understand or believe it.

Tesla has more credibility going into battery day... after good Q1 results.

My original thought was that a new battery was going into Plaid Model S, and they would show a Model S with the battery and a timeline for production.

My reservation now is they are delaying capex for the semi, Plaid Model S would be easy to delay... but I think it should be lower capex or more strategic, so I hope it proceeds on schedule.

 

[Rammstein]

Just on Q1 both Dave L and Rob M, noted $354 M regulatory credits in Q1 certainly helped the results, I think that might dip in Q2 because FCA sales in Europe will dip.

I think Battery Day may boost the stock price and this solid Q1 result will help.. or a better way of saying that is Battery Day should move the price.

Short Term price movements can be unpredictable, but battery day has the potential to be great, I'm just not sure if the market will understand it, or if any of it is "priced in".

I’m with you. This price action doesn’t make sense with the uncertainty. I have my longterm shares but have been selling puts all the way from 400 until now. Will keep doing this until they get exercised then I will sell calls at the point the they are exercised at. There’s just too much uncertainty right now for me to be all the way in. That’s me personally though.

 

[Tim S]

Don’t twist words. I was saying it’s obvious that a Great Depression would be way worse for the human race. Tesla can open up their factory with the right protocols.

Last time I checked over 95% of deaths are people over 80. If you are high risk take care of yourself. Otherwise the economy should open up. This corona panic is dumb.

BTW I thought this way before Elon had the guts to speak up about it. Look at Sweden and how they are doing.

You should enjoy your celebratory drinks and stop posting tonight. 95% of COVID deaths are people over 80? That's ridiculous and not close to accurate. That does not help your argument.

 

[mickle]

Apparently there is some dissent between the Bay Area county health departments. I have been comparing the new SAH orders from Alameda vs Santa Clara vs San Mateo county. San Mateo's has this extra paragraph which is not present in the others, and hopefully this means we'll see changes around the Bay Area before the end of May:


19. This Order shall become effective at 11:59 p.m. on May 3, 2020 and will continue to be in effect until 11:59 p.m. on May 31, 2020, or until it is extended, rescinded, superseded, or amended in writing by the Health Officer. However, while this Order is being extended for four weeks, it is being done so, in its current form, reluctantly. It is clear San Mateo County is moving into a different stage of this crisis and that we will require a different framework to balance many competing interests. An Order based on a framework of essential and non-essential business categories was absolutely necessary and appropriate in the earliest stages of this crisis. I am grateful that the State issued an Order based on this framework several days after we did. If we continue to have the public’s cooperation, I have great hope that the COVID-19 Indicators will continue to improve and this Order can be revised before May 31, 2020 in a manner that focuses more on behavior (social distancing, face masks, etc.) and risk of disease transmission in contrast to categories of businesses (essential vs. non-essential). However, for me to issue such an Order, the State first needs to revise its Order to allow it. While, the Governor has indicated that the State will do so in weeks, not months, the actual date is uncertain. Modification by the State of its Order is a pre-requisite for such a change here.

 

[Mo City]

Now on with discussion of the actual company, any thoughts on what investors would need to hear at Battery Day to cause any significant movement of the stock price of the subsequent months?

Like, would announcement of a million mile battery, with 30% increased energy density and 30% less cost be worth 0, 25, 50 billion to market cap?

Or a clear plan to build out terawatt hours / year capacity make a difference?

Basically, is the market valuing Tesla's growth trajectory in a way that will be fundamentally different after Battery Day? What would it take to do that?

The two main things investors want to hear that will affect TSLA are (1) Cost reduction to <$100 per kWh and (2) Tesla's plan and time frame to massively scale up production. Considering how Elon raised expectations through the roof-I think it would be one of the most exciting days in Tesla's history-we should get a solid road map.

It's already been said Maxwell's dry electrode technology is a big part of cost reduction.

Many expect Tesla to announce they will begin to insource battery manufacturing. This really blows my mind because it represents a potential level of cost reduction no competitor has a chance of doing probably in the next 10 years (if ever).

Locking down lithium supply into the foreseeable future seems to weigh on everyone's mind.

Of course, recycling will be discussed.

I don't see the "million mile battery" thing as a big deal. 500K is easily enough IMO and anything beyond that is just bragging.

Battery Day can truly rocket TSLA. It is a much more important event than the great Q1 ER.

 

[ripper88]

Now Karen is looking to distort Icelands CT delivery statistics;-
Nafnlaus on Twitter

She has run amok since escaping from here...

I keep reading about this Karen. What's the story?

 

[S3XY]

It was so refreshing to hear Guy Adami admit he's fully clueless on evaluating TSLA.

I respect that.

It's pretty revealing at the end where he says "It's just one of those things where you just can't get in the way (of Tesla). So I'm not gunna".

 

[CanadaEV]

A pandemic requires a nimble response from the government.
Dictatorships can be fairly nimble, especially when compared to the inefficiencies of a large democracy.
The best situation is a benevolent and most-intelligent dictator, if such a person could exist.
It could be argued that's in large part what makes Tesla as nimble as it is.

Well said. We may not choose dictatorship ourselves, but it is always a mistake to underestimate your adversary. Dictatorships have positive attributes. Democracies have negative attributes. And visa versa. We can all improve, and we should try our hardest to improve our democracies.

This shows up ver

 

[MC3OZ]

I keep reading about this Karen. What's the story?

She was a very good poster here, who left after a disagreement with a mod.

She still posts on twitter.

 

[XHabjab]

I interpreted it as Texas being the preferred location, because there is something there. It'd be quite random to, if they're not allowed to do it in Cali, to do it in Texas instead. That in combination with the Giga Texas tweets seems like something is brewing over there, but I could be wrong.

I don't have strong commitment either way but my gut feeling is he was referring to the general business climate in Texas vs California, not so much pointing to a new Gigafactory.

Just to add a few minor data points:

• California (with differences in various counties) is giving tickets to people for general travel, imposing fines for going outside your personal space. It sounds like there are lots of rules for trips to the store, and outdoor activities restricted or forbidden. Texas suggests wearing a mask when shopping and has issued guidelines to stores for restrictions on number of customers in retail space. Texas suggests behavior for visiting friends, neighbors and relatives but has no enforcement or controls in place. Texas allows restaurants to stay open for takeout and/or delivery, including relaxed liquor rules. Margarita delivery! Completely different environment. Texans seem to be responding with (mostly) common sense, but there are exceptions.
  
• Elon has spent much of the last 2 months in Texas. Remember that besides Tesla, he is the big dog at SpaceX. Texas hosts 2 major SpaceX facilities - the test facility in McGregor and the launch/Starship assembly site in Boca Chica. If you've been watching SpaceX news lately, you know that 3 Starships have been built and tested in the last month or so. Plenty of news there. Work there is mostly unrestricted and no problems supporting the job site with food, hotel, activating equipment, transportation or shipping/receiving. I suspect that he flew from Texas to California to do the Earnings Report.
• Back when the Stay At Home stuff started in mid March, I read an article about Governor Newsom allowing certain activity but the Alameda Sheriff shut Tesla activities down (did I read it at TMC?). For several days, I read the twitter feed for the Sheriff that the article pointed to. It was saturated by all the usual TSLAQ players insisting that the Sheriff stop all activity that the federal government and Governor Newsom had allowed. None of the messages seemed to be from locals - it was all FUD. I would think that the unsophisticated Sheriff was overwhelmed by this and his action plan has been swayed in TSLAQ favor (and probably still is).
• FWIW, The TSLAQ crowd seems focused on TSLA/Tesla only and doesn't seem to care about SpaceX. I see a vast difference between how the two companies are able to operate during these coronavirus days. Part of the difference is Tesla's threat to other industries, part is different handling by the two states.
  
• There was the silly stuff where Newsom said that Tesla didn't ship any ventilators to any hospitals. I don't think the info was satisfactorily settled. Elon has a few reasons to be upset with Newsom.
  
• I don't have all the facts on the Boring Company, but I think I saw that they are hard at work in Nevada, even as all the casinos are closed.

I'm not going to fall on my sword over anything, but my belief is that Elon was just talking about the differences in the general climate of things between California and Texas.

 

[ZeApelido]

The two main things investors want to hear that will affect TSLA are (1) Cost reduction to <$100 per kWh and (2) Tesla's plan and time frame to massively scale up production. Considering how Elon raised expectations through the roof-I think it would be one of the most exciting days in Tesla's history-we should get a solid road map.

It's already been said Maxwell's dry electrode technology is a big part of cost reduction.

Many expect Tesla to announce they will begin to insource battery manufacturing. This really blows my mind because it represents a potential level of cost reduction no competitor has a chance of doing probably in the next 10 years (if ever).

Locking down lithium supply into the foreseeable future seems to weigh on everyone's mind.

Of course, recycling will be discussed.

I don't see the "million mile battery" thing as a big deal. 500K is easily enough IMO and anything beyond that is just bragging.

Battery Day can truly rocket TSLA. It is a much more important event than the great Q1 ER.

The million mile battery is important for at least 2 reasons IMO:

1) You can force batteries to Supercharge at higher charge rates than Tesla does but it degrades the battery. Increased battery longevity alone means Tesla can allow higher recharge rates (and that ignores any other chemistry enhancement)

2) More valuable is it could allow vehicles to operate as V2G and act as part of grid energy storage / grid stability. The economics of this are unclear to me, but it could be significant.

 

[troym]

I'm pretty sure they made a comment about the automotive backlog having increased in Q1'20. I don't have a seeking alpha account though, so I can't search for it in the transcript.

EDIT: Definitely was Q1'20. Check this tweet:

anonyx on Twitter[/

“We also announced a long-range and performance variant of Model 3 for our road map, which will positively impact ASPs in China. On order rates, we did not experience much of an impact related to the expiration of government incentives at the end of Q4. In fact, we exited the quarter with our highest-ever backlog yet again.”

I read that as q4 but I suppose it’s open to interpretation...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So, I don’t disagree with you, except - Elon. There was a day not too many years ago where he mentioned off the cuff how if somebody didn’t build a battery factory, that Tesla would.

Originally Elon wanted to show OEMs a path to building EVs. Then one day when it became clear they weren’t going to pick up the ball and run with it, he changed his mind and point blank said if they wouldn’t play, he’d kill them if he had to.

I don’t think he has any intention of packing up his California toys and moving everything to Texas. But if I was Alameda County, I wouldn’t test him.

Today's reminder that Alameda County couldn't get a stadium built for the Oakland Raiders after decades of trying so the Raiders moved to Las Vegas. If I was Alameda County, losing businesses because I can't break through my own internal gridlock is par for course. It happens all the time.

There's nothing unique or unusual about Tesla, if one day Fremont has to close because the costs became unsustainable, well, where do you think Fremont came from in the first place? It was the closed NUMMI factory, which was closed because....GM and Toyota found the costs had become unsustainable! California is a notoriously costly state for businesses to operate, after all.

And now it's because of California that Tesla can't resume manufacturing cars in Fremont. I mean if I were Elon I would suddenly be understanding why most of the European and Japanese automakers locate their big American production facilities in the South, where regulations are lighter and taxes are lower and unions are nonexistent.

 

[FrankSG]

I read that as q4 but I suppose it’s open to interpretation..

No, that's definitely end of Q1'20 for the order backlog. The expiration of government incentives happened at the end of Q4'19, but in spite of that their order backlog increased during the following quarter (Q1'20).

 

[feigen66]

And now it's because of California that Tesla can't resume manufacturing cars in Fremont. I mean if I were Elon I would suddenly be understanding why most of the European and Japanese automakers locate their big American production facilities in the South, where regulations are lighter and taxes are lower and unions are nonexistent.

It would be sad, because Tesla is one of the few tech companies in California did not dodge taxes like Google and Facebook.
I really do not understand why California (or Alameda County to that matter) keep punishing a company that is actually doing sustainable good -- then people kept complaining why manufacture jobs going elsewhere.

 

[MC3OZ]

The million mile battery is important for at least 2 reasons IMO:

1) You can force batteries to Supercharge at higher charge rates than Tesla does but it degrades the battery. Increased battery longevity alone means Tesla can allow higher recharge rates (and that ignores any other chemistry enhancement)

2) More valuable is it could allow vehicles to operate as V2G and act as part of grid energy storage / grid stability. The economics of this are unclear to me, but it could be significant.

In addition:-

3) Million mile battery allows Tesla to provide longer battery warranties with minimal risk - demand lever.

4) Use in RoboTaxis - this type of battery makes sense.

5) 20 year operational life with daily cycling for energy storage batteries....

This last reason 5) is the big one IMO.

For energy storage batteries the only ROI considerations are daily cycling of close to the full capacity, warranty and longevity. They make money shuffling MWh in and out each day...

Battery Day is also going to show how fast they can scale energy storage batteries .... at right price with a 20 year lifetime and a good warranty, energy storage batteries will fly out the door.

IMO there is a tipping point where energy storage battery sales resemble a SpaceX launch...

 

[troym]

No, that's definitely end of Q1'20 for the order backlog. The expiration of government incentives happened at the end of Q4'19, but in spite of that their order backlog increased during the following quarter (Q1'20).

Are we talking specifically for China or global?

 

[Green Pete]

I keep reading about this Karen. What's the story?

She was one of a handful of contributors that left recently due to a disagreement with moderators. She was incredibly well informed and measured in her comments. Her depth of knowledge on battery tech was deep enough for her to likely have made a name for herself as a Tesla upper echelon employee, however she clearly opted to be a trader which I think most would assume has served her well. She was a deeply appreciated member of this forum who also appeared to have a very thoughtful soul given her frequent mentions of her efforts to reforest island.

@KarenRei we miss you here

 

[PeterJA]

After reading 300 posts lamenting/debating Elon's stupidity/justification and the terrible media reaction to his freedom rant, I'm left with the question: What does it matter? Media reactions have been terrible for years, on countless Elon/Tesla issues, but look at the car sales and the stock. Car buyers and stock buyers don't seem to care about media reactions. They care about the products and the company's potential.

Please don't respond with another 300 posts. I don't care either. I'd like to direct the forum's brainpower to a different question: When will the shorts give up?

This is an ER graphic that should soil the shorts of shorts, if they have any sense. Some don't, of course. But they can't all be Spiegel-class hysterics. The latest Nasdaq report (for mid-April) was 20M shares short, or 11% of shares outstanding.

Looking at that graph, is there any doubt the Model Y bar will exceed the one below it in a year or two? And that's just for the US. By then, two more factories should be cranking out Model Y, not to mention all the other ramping or forthcoming products and the robotaxi wildcard.

If I recall correctly, someone estimated that S&P 500 inclusion could raise the share price 20-50%, and there's been lots of thinking about when inclusion will happen. What about short capitulation? If short interest drops to 1% of shares outstanding, like for AMZN, how much will this raise the share price? Will the short interest go that low, or will it stay higher due to delta hedgers and people betting on volatility?

What do you think?