Krugerrand
Meow
Well, there you go. If only I’d had all the people I’ve talked to fill out a poll. Then you could consider their thoughts and opinions valid.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well, there you go. If only I’d had all the people I’ve talked to fill out a poll. Then you could consider their thoughts and opinions valid.
Cybertruck confirmed...
If got on to Twittter to get fire and emergency updates where I live, last time we had bad fires, for that it is good.
Karen and a few others are worth following, I only follow about 6 handles, I only added Elon yesterday. .. so I''m slowly being sucked into the black hole.
feigen66
Member
Err ... have you ever tried to file claim through EDD this month? Please try it.
The support from the state doesn't count if people can't get check.
It's pretty out of touch stating that people can get paid.
Newsom states that they are adding *hundreds* of people today to process millions of claims with backlog. Comcast has even better customer service than EDD.
I interpreted it as Texas being the preferred location, because there is something there. It'd be quite random to, if they're not allowed to do it in Cali, to do it in Texas instead. That in combination with the Giga Texas tweets seems like something is brewing over there, but I could be wrong.
This thread is amazing. After months of not paying attention to Covid19, not noticing all of Musk's inaccurate tweets, etc... Musk tweets about it yesterday and suddenly everyone has a strong opinion! Amazing coincidence 
Whether or not Fremont should open is a good question, but I certainly don't trust Musk to analyze the situation correctly considering how wrong he has been on the issue. Like not even debatable.
Think for yourself. Go follow the depressing coronavirus thread, where the educated are noting how long this will go on, and the ignorant say 'everyone is going to die eventually anyways'.
You may find out that America is different from China, China can reopen their factory after 2 months because they can clamp down on virus spread way more than the U.S. can. Infection rate in the Bay Area is currently way higher than it was in Shanghai when they reopened.
The reported number of daily new cases in the Bay Area is currently about the same as it was when Fremont shut down in late March.
There is no way testing is in place to open up everything and prevent a massive spread to start right away.
You can certainly argue there might be ways to allow the Fremont factory specifically to open up, if enough testing and protocols are available. But is there enough testing for all of manufacturing? I don't know.
All I know is, anyone who thinks the Bay Area / California is in a condition where it is obvious it should open up (right now!) is mistaken.
It is not obvious.
Whether or not Fremont should open is a good question, but I certainly don't trust Musk to analyze the situation correctly considering how wrong he has been on the issue. Like not even debatable.
Think for yourself. Go follow the depressing coronavirus thread, where the educated are noting how long this will go on, and the ignorant say 'everyone is going to die eventually anyways'.
You may find out that America is different from China, China can reopen their factory after 2 months because they can clamp down on virus spread way more than the U.S. can. Infection rate in the Bay Area is currently way higher than it was in Shanghai when they reopened.
The reported number of daily new cases in the Bay Area is currently about the same as it was when Fremont shut down in late March.
There is no way testing is in place to open up everything and prevent a massive spread to start right away.
You can certainly argue there might be ways to allow the Fremont factory specifically to open up, if enough testing and protocols are available. But is there enough testing for all of manufacturing? I don't know.
All I know is, anyone who thinks the Bay Area / California is in a condition where it is obvious it should open up (right now!) is mistaken.
It is not obvious.
I'm pretty sure they made a comment about the automotive backlog having increased in Q1'20. I don't have a seeking alpha account though, so I can't search for it in the transcript.
EDIT: Definitely was Q1'20. Check this tweet:
anonyx on Twitter
feigen66
Member
Thank you very much, I have earned my biostatistics degrees and know things or two on epidemiology modeling.
You don't need to shame anyone as uneducated if we are holding a different opinions.
Now on with discussion of the actual company, any thoughts on what investors would need to hear at Battery Day to cause any significant movement of the stock price of the subsequent months?
Like, would announcement of a million mile battery, with 30% increased energy density and 30% less cost be worth 0, 25, 50 billion to market cap?
Or a clear plan to build out terawatt hours / year capacity make a difference?
Basically, is the market valuing Tesla's growth trajectory in a way that will be fundamentally different after Battery Day? What would it take to do that?
Like, would announcement of a million mile battery, with 30% increased energy density and 30% less cost be worth 0, 25, 50 billion to market cap?
Or a clear plan to build out terawatt hours / year capacity make a difference?
Basically, is the market valuing Tesla's growth trajectory in a way that will be fundamentally different after Battery Day? What would it take to do that?
Mo City
Active Member
Kirkhorn mentioned on the earnings call the GFs are getting bigger and they will probably end up building fewer because of this.Tesla wants to eventually make 20m cars... So you're talking about probably 40 gigafactories eventually. Many more in USA, China, Europe, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia...
Queue the Oprah meme...
That's a good skill. The only shaming was literally the lame "everyone dies anyways" crowd.
This thread is amazing. After months of not paying attention to Covid19, not noticing all of Musk's inaccurate tweets, etc... Musk tweets about it yesterday and suddenly everyone has a strong opinion! Amazing coincidence
Whether or not Fremont should open is a good question, but I certainly don't trust Musk to analyze the situation correctly considering how wrong he has been on the issue. Like not even debatable.
Think for yourself. Go follow the depressing coronavirus thread, where the educated are noting how long this will go on, and the ignorant say 'everyone is going to die eventually anyways'.
You may find out that America is different from China, China can reopen their factory after 2 months because they can clamp down on virus spread way more than the U.S. can. Infection rate in the Bay Area is currently way higher than it was in Shanghai when they reopened.
The reported number of daily new cases in the Bay Area is currently about the same as it was when Fremont shut down in late March.
There is no way testing is in place to open up everything and prevent a massive spread to start right away.
You can certainly argue there might be ways to allow the Fremont factory specifically to open up, if enough testing and protocols are available. But is there enough testing for all of manufacturing? I don't know.
All I know is, anyone who thinks the Bay Area / California is in a condition where it is obvious it should open up (right now!) is mistaken.
It is not obvious.
Don’t twist words. I was saying it’s obvious that a Great Depression would be way worse for the human race. Tesla can open up their factory with the right protocols.
Last time I checked over 95% of deaths are people over 80. If you are high risk take care of yourself. Otherwise the economy should open up. This corona panic is dumb.
BTW I thought this way before Elon had the guts to speak up about it. Look at Sweden and how they are doing.
feigen66
Member
Number of new cases doesn't mean anything since each day the sample size is different. A better number is positive rate, not absolute number of new cases.
The context was Tesla having the highest number of backlogs despite total phase out of tax credit for q1 2020.
Krugerrand
Meow
So, I don’t disagree with you, except - Elon. There was a day not too many years ago where he mentioned off the cuff how if somebody didn’t build a battery factory, that Tesla would.
Originally Elon wanted to show OEMs a path to building EVs. Then one day when it became clear they weren’t going to pick up the ball and run with it, he changed his mind and point blank said if they wouldn’t play, he’d kill them if he had to.
I don’t think he has any intention of packing up his California toys and moving everything to Texas. But if I was Alameda County, I wouldn’t test him.
Just on Q1 both Dave L and Rob M, noted $354 M regulatory credits in Q1 certainly helped the results, I think that might dip in Q2 because FCA sales in Europe will dip.
I think Battery Day may boost the stock price and this solid Q1 result will help.. or a better way of saying that is Battery Day should move the price.
Short Term price movements can be unpredictable, but battery day has the potential to be great, I'm just not sure if the market will understand it, or if any of it is "priced in".
That is a good point and would expect it to be adjusted lower now than in late March. But how much lower?
Elon Musk
I think we will announce the next Giga possibly as soon as a month. We may not – as soon as next month. This is not a prediction, just saying. That's – that could happen. It will certainly be within three months and possibly one month. And that would be in the U.S. So as for how many will be in five years, I'm not – I don't know right now what that number would be. I guess, several more than there are today. But I'm not sure, what exactly it would be in five years, but some number more than today.
I think we will announce the next Giga possibly as soon as a month. We may not – as soon as next month. This is not a prediction, just saying. That's – that could happen. It will certainly be within three months and possibly one month. And that would be in the U.S. So as for how many will be in five years, I'm not – I don't know right now what that number would be. I guess, several more than there are today. But I'm not sure, what exactly it would be in five years, but some number more than today.
Yeah Sweden is really killing it.
Now Sweden may show to have the best approach in the long run, but it is certainly not clear right now!
I actually see movement prior and then fades after battery investor day. Clear path and road maps doesn't move this stock because it's a show me company. Now if they announce anything crazy like "the current model S can travel 550 miles, we just need to update the software and website" then that can move the stock. Aspirational numbers does not until it's implemented. Fsd investor day didn't do a thing to the stock.
Each Giga is bigger and produces more vehicles (Elon joked they will have to start calling them Tera), so they won't need so many.Tesla wants to eventually make 20m cars... So you're talking about probably 40 gigafactories eventually. Many more in USA, China, Europe, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia...
Queue the Oprah meme...
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